Malcolm Merlyn Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Quote As Theresa May returned home from her unsuccessful visit to India, she would bear witness to another relegation for the UK: India’s economy will be larger than the UK’s, for the first time in more than 100 years. This dramatic shift has been driven by India’s rapid economic growth over the past 25 years as well as Britain's recent woes, particularly with the Brexit. Once expected to overtake the UK GDP in 2020, the surpasso has been accelerated by the nearly 20% decline in the value of the pound over the last 12 months, consequently UK’s 2016 GDP of GBP 1.87 trillion converts to $2.29 trillion at exchange rate of ~GBP 0.81 per $1, whereas India’s GDP of INR 153 trillion converts to $2.30 trillion at exchange rate of ~INR 66.6 per $1. Furthermore, this gap is expected to widen as India grows at 6 to 8% p.a. compared to UK’s growth of 1 to 2% p.a. until 2020, and likely beyond. Even if the currencies fluctuate that modify these figures to rough equality, the verdict is clear that India’s economy has surpassed that of the UK based on future growth prospects. This marks a significant landmark in India’s economic history, whose story over the last 150 years can be split into three parts: a period of divergence, of relative stagnation and a period of convergence with respect to the economy of the UK. Divergence begins with the UK’s industrial revolution in the 18th century to India’s independence in 1947 when the UK’s growth significantly outpaced India’s. The period of stagnation extended from 1947 to 1991 where both India and the UK grew at roughly the same rate. This was despite India being independent, and was predominantly due to India’s misinformed choice of pursuing a closed, centrally planned, socialist economy. Convergence began in 1991, when India finally implemented market reforms, and continues to this day. During this period India has experienced much faster economic growth than the UK and has finally in 2016 overtaken it in absolute terms, although is still less than one-fifth that of the UK in per capita terms. History teaches us that milestones are important, that they can help clarify and bring to light underlying long-term trends, as well as encourage people to shed their biases. Japan’s victory over Russia in 1905 is an illustrative example: The event helped break the conception of the inability of the East to militarily defeat a western power and also highlighted the economic rise of Japan that had gradually taken place over the second half of the 19th century. India’s overtaking of the UK’s GDP in 2016 could serve as a similar moment. This surpasso has three important implications. First, it highlights India’s arrival on the global stage and a significant change in power dynamics between India and the west. The effects of this are already being witnessed in India’s repudiation of a trade deal with the UK, where it stood firm in its ask for more favorable immigration for Indian nationals. Another example is the failure of May to secure a meeting with the Tata Group, who has 4,000 British employees at a steel plant in Port Talbot, that could potentially be shut down. Second it should give India the ability to shed any residual notion of colonial inferiority and enable it to have a more open mindset and look at alternative nations to emulate. For example, India could increasingly look at China, a country of similar population and closer to India’s own cultural tradition, as a model for its own economic growth. Lastly, it should redouble India’s efforts towards furthering market reform given that India’s per capita GDP is still less than one-fifth that of the UK, highlighting the tremendous scope for further convergence. 1947 gave India agency to chart its own path; 1991 broke India out of its mold; and hopefully 2016 shall give India conviction and help it redouble its efforts towards convergence after celebrating a historic and emotional milestone of economically overtaking its former colonizer. http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/12/16/indias-economy-surpasses-that-of-great-britain/#32970d9b39eb mishra, Muloghonto, randomGuy and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Gdp per capita would be a lot better for uk .... quality > quantity To illustrate Country A -> 10 ppl produce 10 items, total items 100 Country B -> 101 ppl produce 1 item each, total items 101 Production of B > A, but B is not necessarily better off Though PPP data per capita should be interesting to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malcolm Merlyn Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, zen said: Gdp per capita would be a lot better for uk .... quality > quantity To illustrate Country A -> 10 ppl produce 10 items, total items 100 Country B -> 101 ppl produce 1 item each, total items 101 Production of B > A, but B is not necessarily better off Though PPP data per capita should be interesting to see If we want to talk per capita then GDP in PPP terms is a better indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Though Ind is growing at 6-8% in GDP, there is a cost associated with it as well in terms of damage to environment / natural resources / etc est at $80B annually in 2009 money (roughly equalivalent to 6% of 2009 GDP) .... this damage could be too expensive to repair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 (edited) Based on GDP per capita PPP, Ind is at 126 .... All BRIC(S) countries are ranked higher .... In sub con, SL and Bhutan are ranked higher Country/Economy GDP per capita PPP (Int. $) 2016 times to world Rank Qatar 129,727 7.94 1 Luxembourg 101,936 6.24 2 Macao SAR 96,148 5.89 3 Singapore 87,082 5.33 4 Brunei Darussalam 79,711 4.88 5 Kuwait 71,264 4.36 6 Ireland 69,375 4.25 7 Norway 69,296 4.24 8 United Arab Emirates 67,696 4.15 9 San Marino 64,444 3.95 10 Switzerland 59,376 3.64 11 Hong Kong SAR 58,095 3.56 12 United States 57,294 3.51 13 Saudi Arabia 54,078 3.31 14 Netherlands 50,846 3.11 15 Bahrain 50,303 3.08 16 Sweden 49,678 3.04 17 Australia 48,806 2.99 18 Germany 48,190 2.95 19 Iceland 48,070 2.94 20 Austria 47,856 2.93 21 Taiwan Province of China 47,790 2.93 22 Denmark 46,603 2.85 23 Canada 46,240 2.83 24 Belgium 44,881 2.75 25 Oman 43,737 2.68 26 United Kingdom 42,514 2.6 27 France 42,384 2.6 28 Finland 41,813 2.56 29 Japan 38,894 2.38 30 Equatorial Guinea 38,699 2.37 31 Korea 37,948 2.32 32 Malta 37,891 2.32 33 Puerto Rico 37,723 2.31 34 New Zealand 37,108 2.27 35 Spain 36,451 2.23 36 Italy 36,313 2.22 37 Israel 34,834 2.13 38 Cyprus 34,387 2.11 39 Czech Republic 33,223 2.03 40 Slovenia 32,028 1.96 41 Trinidad and Tobago 31,934 1.96 42 Slovak Republic 31,182 1.91 43 Lithuania 29,882 1.83 44 Estonia 29,502 1.81 45 Portugal 28,515 1.75 46 Seychelles 28,148 1.72 47 Poland 27,715 1.7 48 Malaysia 27,234 1.67 49 Hungary 27,211 1.67 50 Greece 26,809 1.64 51 Russia 26,109 1.6 52 Latvia 25,740 1.58 53 Kazakhstan 25,669 1.57 54 St. Kitts and Nevis 25,372 1.55 55 The Bahamas 24,618 1.51 56 Antigua and Barbuda 24,050 1.47 57 Chile 23,969 1.47 58 Panama 22,788 1.4 59 Croatia 22,415 1.37 60 Romania 22,319 1.37 61 Uruguay 21,570 1.32 62 Turkey 21,147 1.3 63 Mauritius 20,525 1.26 64 Argentina 20,171 1.24 65 Bulgaria 20,116 1.23 66 Gabon 19,252 1.18 67 Mexico 18,865 1.16 68 Lebanon 18,524 1.13 69 Islamic Republic of Iran 18,136 1.11 70 Azerbaijan 17,688 1.08 71 Belarus 17,497 1.07 72 Turkmenistan 17,347 1.06 73 Barbados 17,137 1.05 74 Montenegro 17,035 1.04 75 Botswana 16,948 1.04 76 Thailand 16,835 1.03 77 Iraq 16,544 1.01 78 Costa Rica 16,142 0.989 79 Dominican Republic 15,946 0.977 80 China 15,424 0.945 81 Maldives 15,288 0.936 82 Palau 15,260 0.935 83 Brazil 15,211 0.932 84 Suriname 15,180 0.93 85 Venezuela 15,103 0.925 86 Algeria 14,950 0.916 87 FYR Macedonia 14,530 0.89 88 Libya 14,236 0.872 89 Serbia 14,226 0.871 90 Colombia 14,162 0.867 91 Grenada 14,102 0.864 92 South Africa 13,179 0.807 93 Peru 13,019 0.797 94 Mongolia 12,161 0.745 95 Egypt 12,137 0.743 96 St. Lucia 11,970 0.733 97 Albania 11,861 0.726 98 Namibia 11,756 0.72 99 Indonesia 11,699 0.716 100 Tunisia 11,657 0.714 101 Dominica 11,484 0.703 102 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 11,267 0.69 103 Sri Lanka 11,189 0.685 104 Jordan 11,125 0.681 105 Ecuador 11,037 0.676 106 Bosnia and Herzegovina 11,034 0.676 107 Georgia 10,100 0.619 108 Swaziland 9,768 0.598 109 Paraguay 9,354 0.573 110 Fiji 9,353 0.573 111 Jamaica 8,974 0.55 112 El Salvador 8,914 0.546 113 Armenia 8,881 0.544 114 Morocco 8,360 0.512 115 Ukraine 8,230 0.504 116 Belize 8,186 0.501 117 Bhutan 8,129 0.498 118 Guatemala 7,937 0.486 119 Guyana 7,920 0.485 120 Philippines 7,696 0.471 121 Bolivia 7,191 0.44 122 Angola 6,844 0.419 123 Republic of Congo 6,787 0.416 124 Cabo Verde 6,744 0.413 125 India 6,658 0.408 126 Edited March 30, 2017 by zen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mariyam Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Obviously per capita numbers wouldn't be flattering given India's population base. But in terms of size of the economy India accounted for nearly a fifth of the worlds population and GDP in the 1700s. Or so I've read on ICF. The Brits reduced us to utter destitution. Now we are headed back,albeit slowly, to contributing a larger share of the worlds output. randomGuy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muloghonto Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 6 hours ago, Malcolm Merlyn said: If we want to talk per capita then GDP in PPP terms is a better indicator. actually GINI coefficient is an ever better indicator. GDP per capita's biggest problem is wealth distribution. Like for e.g., in Russia, approximately 1000 people are worth 70% of Russia's GDP. Without wealth distribution factors, we don't know how well the country is doing, because it could be a case of '2 Bill Gates and 1000 beggars' scenario as well. chewy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 considering the strength of the rupee right now I am guessing India is officially number 5 in the world in terms of nominal GDP randomGuy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kubrickian Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 (edited) India has shown good growth and decent improvement in social indicators in last 25 years. With the size of population and the magnitude of problems India has, its commendable to see its achievements, at lease those of the recent past. What's required now is to improve per capita income and further improve quality of living. Crucial factor will be to create millions of jobs(by building infrastructure, reducing corruption, reduce red tape for starting up companies, a culture of entrepreneurship should be cultivated to build companies which can create employment) and to make sure we have a population which is capable of doing those jobs(improving health care. Physical and mental fitness will improve a person's capacity to do a job) and improve literacy levels and quality of education. Also important is to improve social conditions such as better treatment of women and better opportunities for women, better treatment of minorities, dalits and other backward communities, improving law and order situation, building better quality cities and towns, improving basic facilities in all villages and having better control over air and water pollution etc. Some regions in India are still lagging and there is a huge disparity and these should be brought on par with other regions. These are big challenges but should be considered big opportunities. I feel next 25 years will be a very crucial phase for India in its development. Edited March 31, 2017 by kubrickian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RookieFan Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Well, this is NO BIG Deal. According to Economic Historians, until 1850's China and India had 50% of world's GDP. The British were smart to usurp most of that and channel it to British "Empire". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kubrickian Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 6 hours ago, RookieFan said: Well, this is NO BIG Deal. According to Economic Historians, until 1850's China and India had 50% of world's GDP. The British were smart to usurp most of that and channel it to British "Empire". That's partly true. Here's my take on this matter. 1. After 19th century, Britain became lot more productive and richer because of Industrial Revolution and produced more wealth which was possible in part because of colonizing other countries and using their raw materials and using them as markets. 2. They halted India from becoming a modern economy for 200 years because it was in their best interests to keep using India and other colonies to their advantage. They pretended to "modernize" India by making some cosmetic changes like improving infrastructure, cities but they were doing it because it helped their interests. For instance, rail line and ports helped transport raw materials across India back to their country. But you have to give credit where its due. Britain and other Western countries did much better in advancement of science and technology. Ancient China, Persia, India were doing well till a certain point in terms of inventions and discoveries but Western countries surpassed them. In India's case, a lot of the universities and centers of learning were destroyed by invading armies and the work done by scientists was halted from developing further. As a result, Western societies produced the technology first required for Industrial revolution, treatment of diseases and improving health care, traveling across oceans and developing guns and other advanced weapons to colonize other countries. Whereas India, China continued to remain largely agrarian economies with an increasing population(because farming communities tend to have larger families) and therefore standard of living remained stagnant. Before 19th century, per capita of Europe was lesser than India and China. After the Industrial revolution, they became richer by multiple folds. The lesson that needs to be learned is to invest more in science and technology and have centers of learning which can produce great scientists and engineers because it has the capability of transforming our society. Even today, some of our best minds are leaving India to other Western countries and improving their societies. Also our standard of education in most of our schools and colleges leaves a lot to be desired because they still emphasize rote learning over improving knowledge. Most young people even today lack the drive to read books to improve their world view and expand their minds, preferring to watch Bollywood crap and IPL and spend most of their time on social media. Lack of emphasis on development of science and technology and lack of knowledge on different subjects(ignorance) = lack of progress in society. Book_Worm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucindabv3 Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 SUBJ1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilander Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 Must see infographics on Indian economy. This will help you understand where we belong and where we are headed. It will always just be India v China. https://infogr.am/Share-of-world-GDP-throughout-history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilander Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silva Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 Gdp doesnt take into account the black economy, out of every registered business in india their are about 127 unregistered ones. If india figured out a way to register that black market activitiy or figure out a way to report it the gdp would go up a lot. Modi has taken the black economy on and has implemented reforms to make it easier to register businesses but it hasnt been enough to even put a dent in it. Although some of the reforms havnt been fully implemented yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilander Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 0:13 PM, zen said: Based on GDP per capita PPP, Ind is at 126 .... All BRIC(S) countries are ranked higher .... In sub con, SL and Bhutan are ranked higher Country/Economy GDP per capita PPP (Int. $) 2016 times to world Rank Qatar 129,727 7.94 1 Luxembourg 101,936 6.24 2 Macao SAR 96,148 5.89 3 Singapore 87,082 5.33 4 Brunei Darussalam 79,711 4.88 5 Kuwait 71,264 4.36 6 Ireland 69,375 4.25 7 Norway 69,296 4.24 8 United Arab Emirates 67,696 4.15 9 San Marino 64,444 3.95 10 Switzerland 59,376 3.64 11 Hong Kong SAR 58,095 3.56 12 United States 57,294 3.51 13 Saudi Arabia 54,078 3.31 14 Netherlands 50,846 3.11 15 Bahrain 50,303 3.08 16 Sweden 49,678 3.04 17 Australia 48,806 2.99 18 Germany 48,190 2.95 19 Iceland 48,070 2.94 20 Austria 47,856 2.93 21 Taiwan Province of China 47,790 2.93 22 Denmark 46,603 2.85 23 Canada 46,240 2.83 24 Belgium 44,881 2.75 25 Oman 43,737 2.68 26 United Kingdom 42,514 2.6 27 France 42,384 2.6 28 Finland 41,813 2.56 29 Japan 38,894 2.38 30 Equatorial Guinea 38,699 2.37 31 Korea 37,948 2.32 32 Malta 37,891 2.32 33 Puerto Rico 37,723 2.31 34 New Zealand 37,108 2.27 35 Spain 36,451 2.23 36 Italy 36,313 2.22 37 Israel 34,834 2.13 38 Cyprus 34,387 2.11 39 Czech Republic 33,223 2.03 40 Slovenia 32,028 1.96 41 Trinidad and Tobago 31,934 1.96 42 Slovak Republic 31,182 1.91 43 Lithuania 29,882 1.83 44 Estonia 29,502 1.81 45 Portugal 28,515 1.75 46 Seychelles 28,148 1.72 47 Poland 27,715 1.7 48 Malaysia 27,234 1.67 49 Hungary 27,211 1.67 50 Greece 26,809 1.64 51 Russia 26,109 1.6 52 Latvia 25,740 1.58 53 Kazakhstan 25,669 1.57 54 St. Kitts and Nevis 25,372 1.55 55 The Bahamas 24,618 1.51 56 Antigua and Barbuda 24,050 1.47 57 Chile 23,969 1.47 58 Panama 22,788 1.4 59 Croatia 22,415 1.37 60 Romania 22,319 1.37 61 Uruguay 21,570 1.32 62 Turkey 21,147 1.3 63 Mauritius 20,525 1.26 64 Argentina 20,171 1.24 65 Bulgaria 20,116 1.23 66 Gabon 19,252 1.18 67 Mexico 18,865 1.16 68 Lebanon 18,524 1.13 69 Islamic Republic of Iran 18,136 1.11 70 Azerbaijan 17,688 1.08 71 Belarus 17,497 1.07 72 Turkmenistan 17,347 1.06 73 Barbados 17,137 1.05 74 Montenegro 17,035 1.04 75 Botswana 16,948 1.04 76 Thailand 16,835 1.03 77 Iraq 16,544 1.01 78 Costa Rica 16,142 0.989 79 Dominican Republic 15,946 0.977 80 China 15,424 0.945 81 Maldives 15,288 0.936 82 Palau 15,260 0.935 83 Brazil 15,211 0.932 84 Suriname 15,180 0.93 85 Venezuela 15,103 0.925 86 Algeria 14,950 0.916 87 FYR Macedonia 14,530 0.89 88 Libya 14,236 0.872 89 Serbia 14,226 0.871 90 Colombia 14,162 0.867 91 Grenada 14,102 0.864 92 South Africa 13,179 0.807 93 Peru 13,019 0.797 94 Mongolia 12,161 0.745 95 Egypt 12,137 0.743 96 St. Lucia 11,970 0.733 97 Albania 11,861 0.726 98 Namibia 11,756 0.72 99 Indonesia 11,699 0.716 100 Tunisia 11,657 0.714 101 Dominica 11,484 0.703 102 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 11,267 0.69 103 Sri Lanka 11,189 0.685 104 Jordan 11,125 0.681 105 Ecuador 11,037 0.676 106 Bosnia and Herzegovina 11,034 0.676 107 Georgia 10,100 0.619 108 Swaziland 9,768 0.598 109 Paraguay 9,354 0.573 110 Fiji 9,353 0.573 111 Jamaica 8,974 0.55 112 El Salvador 8,914 0.546 113 Armenia 8,881 0.544 114 Morocco 8,360 0.512 115 Ukraine 8,230 0.504 116 Belize 8,186 0.501 117 Bhutan 8,129 0.498 118 Guatemala 7,937 0.486 119 Guyana 7,920 0.485 120 Philippines 7,696 0.471 121 Bolivia 7,191 0.44 122 Angola 6,844 0.419 123 Republic of Congo 6,787 0.416 124 Cabo Verde 6,744 0.413 125 India 6,658 0.408 126 yup congo is better than India in terms of economy and San marinio is better than US. top class post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, Vilander said: yup congo is better than India in terms of economy and San marinio is better than US. top class post. A short lesson on GDP per capita based on PPP -> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, Vilander said: Must see infographics on Indian economy. This will help you understand where we belong and where we are headed. It will always just be India v China. https://infogr.am/Share-of-world-GDP-throughout-history 3 hours ago, Vilander said: So based on the above where is Ind headed? FYI, the graphs that you presented show a downward trend in terms of Ind's GDP as the percent of the world's (as represented by countries in the graph), while Ind's population has risen considerably relatively Edited June 1, 2017 by zen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jusarrived Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 On 2017-3-30 at 5:08 PM, zen said: Gdp per capita would be a lot better for uk .... quality > quantity To illustrate Country A -> 10 ppl produce 10 items, total items 100 Country B -> 101 ppl produce 1 item each, total items 101 Production of B > A, but B is not necessarily better off Though PPP data per capita should be interesting to see I think every one understands percapita income is not comparable between these countries. Even then your example is way off . Country A produces 10 and consumes 8 items / person in comparison Country B may be produces 1 and consumes as much . So the quality better in UK is defiantly not 10 times . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 (edited) 41 minutes ago, jusarrived said: I think every one understands percapita income is not comparable between these countries. Even then your example is way off . Country A produces 10 and consumes 8 items / person in comparison Country B may be produces 1 and consumes as much . So the quality better in UK is defiantly not 10 times . The e.g. is a random one highlighting the importance of GDP per capita i.e. say at $1 per item, A's GDP is $100 with GDP per capita of $10, while B's GDP is $101 with GDP per capita of $1. Based on the above should B be celebrating that its GDP is better than A's, when its GDP per capita is much lower The discussion led to GDP per capita PPP where UK is at $42k, while Ind is at $6.7k Edited June 1, 2017 by zen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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