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sandeep

War is coming

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On 8/10/2017 at 1:59 PM, sandeep said:

Ok.  Sorry for the clickbaity title.  But expect the "Doklam" standoff to bubble over sooner rather than later.   

 

1.   India and China have a long unresolved border 'dispute'.   CCP recognizes that India's decades of enforced 'austerity measures on its armed forces have ended, and now its finally moving forward on shoring up its woefully inadequate border defense infrastructure - its still got a ways to go, but its much easier for the PLA to have success against India's border defense today, rather than 5 years from now. 

 

2.  After a few decades of supercharged economic growth, the Chinese economy is in a major slowdown for the last few years, and a massive infrastructure building spree and stimulus at home, and building out the new silk road are not enough, what better than an external conflict to head off any sort of build up of resentment of the 'people' against the CCP?  

 

3.  Chinese hardliners are ready to more openly press their case that its now China's 'time' to re-assume its position as one of the world powers.   Students of history will recognize the "splendid little war" - the Spanish American ware of 1898 - where the US kicked the Spaniards out of Cuba, and took over Guam and Philippines - as the announcement of the US as a player on the world scene.  A repeat of a 1962 beat-down of India along the vast under-defended border will serve a similar cause nicely for China.

 

4.  The 'Bhutan' gambit serves the Chinese by muddying up the waters of the conflict just enough, so that third parties who don't really want to speak up against China, have some sort of a reason to justify staying "neutral".   If the Chinese had attempted to change the facts on the ground by building roads in territory that was directly in dispute between India and China - they would counter a lot more disapproval and resistence on the international stage - perhaps even at the UN inspite of their permanent seat on the Security Council.  

 

5.   I also don't think its a co-incidence that North Korea has escalated things with its missile tests - Recall the fact that China first attacked India right at the time when the entire world was focused on the Cuban Missile crisis between the US and the Soviets.   Kim Jong's government cannot afford to make such major moves without the tacit approval of the Chinese - they won't survive even a month without the direct material support to DPRK by China.  

 

All of this makes me believe that the Chinese are definitely going to engage - and not just in the Doklam region - they have a lot of options and low-hanging fruit all along the Indo-Chinese frontier.  A lot of places where the ground and geography would be in their favor.   

 

 

Wrote this 3 years ago.  

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5 minutes ago, zen said:

If I am not wrong, Ind has taken an important position in the Ladakh region which per Ind is under its side of LAC, while Chinese claim to be under theirs 

 

 

Hard Info and details haven't come through yet, but the sense of relief and glee amongst some of the Indian analysts who have access to 'sources' is palpable.  Seems like a minor victory has been achieved at a minimum.  

 

And I'm loving the "vikas" referencing tweets.  If its true and Tibetan SFF were deployed to pull this off, that is quite an accomplishment, and a strong finger in the eye of the Chinese.  

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I think, India has just sent a message to China, Either come back to table or India too can play the same game of PLA. If LAC land grab by China do not justify India to go to war, how can China now justify it can go to war on Indian action on LAC.

 

Further, if Chinese forces returned back 20 km in 1960 post their conquest, doesn’t mean its a favour. India force also reached near Islamabad. But once our forces returned, that immediately became Pakistan. 

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10 minutes ago, mishra said:

I think, India has just sent a message to China, Either come back to table or India too can play the same game of PLA. If LAC land grab by China do not justify India to go to war, how can China now justify it can go to war on Indian action on LAC.

 

Further, if Chinese forces returned back 20 km in 1960 post their conquest, doesn’t mean its a favour. India force also reached near Islamabad. But once our forces returned, that immediately became Pakistan. 

"Vikas abhi Zinda hai" is my favorite tweet of the day.  NitinG could barely conceal his happiness in his video with Col Dilly, he was trying to stay professional though. 

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10 minutes ago, sandeep said:

"Vikas abhi Zinda hai" is my favorite tweet of the day.  NitinG could barely conceal his happiness in his video with Col Dilly, he was trying to stay professional though. 

Bottomline, India wants peace as well as its sovereignty. China must change its current hostile policy And salami slicing of India on LAC or yes, it can also go to full scale war with us. 

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