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sandeep

War is coming

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Ok.  Sorry for the clickbaity title.  But expect the "Doklam" standoff to bubble over sooner rather than later.   

 

1.   India and China have a long unresolved border 'dispute'.   CCP recognizes that India's decades of enforced 'austerity measures on its armed forces have ended, and now its finally moving forward on shoring up its woefully inadequate border defense infrastructure - its still got a ways to go, but its much easier for the PLA to have success against India's border defense today, rather than 5 years from now. 

 

2.  After a few decades of supercharged economic growth, the Chinese economy is in a major slowdown for the last few years, and a massive infrastructure building spree and stimulus at home, and building out the new silk road are not enough, what better than an external conflict to head off any sort of build up of resentment of the 'people' against the CCP?  

 

3.  Chinese hardliners are ready to more openly press their case that its now China's 'time' to re-assume its position as one of the world powers.   Students of history will recognize the "splendid little war" - the Spanish American ware of 1898 - where the US kicked the Spaniards out of Cuba, and took over Guam and Philippines - as the announcement of the US as a player on the world scene.  A repeat of a 1962 beat-down of India along the vast under-defended border will serve a similar cause nicely for China.

 

4.  The 'Bhutan' gambit serves the Chinese by muddying up the waters of the conflict just enough, so that third parties who don't really want to speak up against China, have some sort of a reason to justify staying "neutral".   If the Chinese had attempted to change the facts on the ground by building roads in territory that was directly in dispute between India and China - they would counter a lot more disapproval and resistence on the international stage - perhaps even at the UN inspite of their permanent seat on the Security Council.  

 

5.   I also don't think its a co-incidence that North Korea has escalated things with its missile tests - Recall the fact that China first attacked India right at the time when the entire world was focused on the Cuban Missile crisis between the US and the Soviets.   Kim Jong's government cannot afford to make such major moves without the tacit approval of the Chinese - they won't survive even a month without the direct material support to DPRK by China.  

 

All of this makes me believe that the Chinese are definitely going to engage - and not just in the Doklam region - they have a lot of options and low-hanging fruit all along the Indo-Chinese frontier.  A lot of places where the ground and geography would be in their favor.   

 

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Why doesn't the ignore function work for this chickenhawk Sanghi?   

 

Anyway,  IMO the worst case scenario is that PLA seizes Tawang and large sections of Arunachal Pradesh - what they like to call "South Tibet".   From a big picture perspective - the fertile valleys of Arunachal would provide a good way to feed the mostly desert-type Tibetan Plateau.  And they are culturally very close to each other anyway.   Let's hope the Indian army has been seriously upgrading its infrastructure and preparedness in the last few years - they didn't have the money for the last 30 years, but they have been getting funding for the last 5-6 years.   Historically though, the Indian army has been quite slow to deploy its capital.

 

Bit unlikely that China will seize populated territory in this day and age - more likely to expect them to grab the high ground and strategic chunks along the Indo-China border.    

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1 hour ago, veer said:

We dont have any other option then to defend ourselves.. We are never the instigator on Wars... 'Dharm' is with us....

Dharm and a couple of bucks will maybe buy you some vada pao.  Best bet is to scramble our defenses and raise the costs fur the PLA.  Also need to identify areas where the Indian army can return the favor and grab some territory that is on the Chinese side of  the LAC. 

 

Other part of this story is the whole tug of war going in within Chinese politics and Xi Pooh bear's attempts to "reform " the PLA.  

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25 minutes ago, sandeep said:

Dharm and a couple of bucks will maybe buy you some vada pao.  Best bet is to scramble our defenses and raise the costs fur the PLA.  Also need to identify areas where the Indian army can return the favor and grab some territory that is on the Chinese side of  the LAC. 

 

Other part of this story is the whole tug of war going in within Chinese politics and Xi Pooh bear's attempts to "reform " the PLA.  

For some it buys Vada Pao.. but for some others, its their life line.

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In history, wars are constant. Unless you are Switzerland, it is hard to avoid them  

 

Wars since 20th century (from the top of my mind): WW1, WW2,  China-Tibet, Ind-Pak, Ind-China, Israel-Egypt, UK-Argentina, Vietnam-US, USSR-Afg, Gulf wars, US-Afg, Iran-Iraq, Wars in Africa, .... 

 

The map of the world changes every 50-70 years. As the saying goes in Sanskrit: nothing is permanent 

 

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3 hours ago, zen said:

In history, wars are constant. Unless you are Switzerland, it is hard to avoid them  

 

Wars since 20th century (from the top of my mind): WW1, WW2,  China-Tibet, Ind-Pak, Ind-China, Israel-Egypt, UK-Argentina, Vietnam-US, USSR-Afg, Gulf wars, US-Afg, Iran-Iraq, Wars in Africa, .... 

 

The map of the world changes every 50-70 years. As the saying goes in Sanskrit: nothing is permanent 

 

I actually believe this .Richer countries are always trying to grab other countries assets or even occupy them from as long as civilization existed.China believes its their turn to take our Asia and they will certainly try.

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The media (both Indian and Chinese tabloids) keep harping on about 1962, but no one talks about 1967, when Indian army defeated China PLA in Nathu La war, when China invaded Sikkim, and kicked them Chinese out. (Also thanks to Gorkha regiment)

 

no one mentions how China got pulverised by Russia and even lost huge chunks of Chinese territory. Still remains the single most devasting event and biggest insult modern China has faced. 

 

And then in Korean War, China suffered huge casualties without making any inroads to the South Korea region

 

and of course in 1979 when a vastly outnumbered Vietamese soldiers (with limited tech) defeated an invading China PLA (backed by USA)

 

Since Chinese Communist rule, China has suffered more defeats and no major military success, the PLA's greatest achievement was invasion of a pacifist Tibet and annexing the region.

 

As someone mentioned, one child policy coupled with huge trade deficit with India, India's own military prowess, a globalised world, I see no war. But once in a while Chinese communist leadership need to rattle the cage to earn their keep...remember the PLA is not their to defend China but is the armed wing of the communist party, if communist party leadership collapses the PLA will just wither away.

 

buggest threat to India is still Pakistan and its psycho terrorist army.

 

 

 

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@OP. Apart from others  which are generally done and dusted, point 5 is a very valid point. However there are few differences.

1. Cuban crisis involved Russia while China made use of the time. Korean involves China. So effectively Chinese will be fighting two diplomatic fronts. In my opinion, That is impossible.

2. Location wise North Korea is right on borders of China. The navies of various nations are already inside touching distance.

Please note that Chinese do not want war with India before they are certain that they can decisively win it in a small timeframe.
In simplest term, Doklam issue is an attempt of China to land/territory grab Bhutanian land and create a new area of influence like they did in Nepal. They never calculated that India will be that assertive in this instance.

So No. Absolutely not. Doklam is a standard terrirory grab policy which went wrong. The daily sermons in Chinese daily means absolutely nothing apart from scaring people like you.


BTW,In modern era, No one with serious firepower can afford war. For example Despite massive firepower disparity, US and complete western world hasnt got balls to go to war with a nation like North Korea, Or India can not go at war with Pakistan, How the hell do you think Chinks have courage to risk a war with India. 

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21 hours ago, surajmal said:

Much needed to rid us of the psychological baggage left by fancy boy Nehru's 62 blunder. Post one child policy, Cheenis havent fought a war. They risk getting a phainty of a life time if they dare do chutiyapa. 

I saw this in Swarajya the other day:

https://swarajyamag.com/defence/-pla-in-the-last-50-years-just-how-strong-is-the-dragon?utm_content=bufferfbb28&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Quote

PLA In The Last 50 Years: Just How Strong Is The Dragon?

Quote

Opponent: Vietnam

Conflict: Full-scale Chinese invasion

Result: Chinese defeat

Casualties: PLA up to 63,000, Vietnamese army 26,000

In 1978, the battle-hardened Peoples Army of Vietnam (PAVN) – which had only three years ago defeated the mighty Americans – launched an invasion on Cambodia. The invasion ended the genocide being committed by the US and China-backed Pol Pot regime, which had murdered two million of the country’s eight million population.

In order to “teach Hanoi a lesson”, the following year, a 200,000-strong Chinese force invaded Vietnam. (Interestingly, the invasion took place when India’s foreign minister Atal Behari Vajpayee was visiting Beijing.) In the 29-day war that ensued, the highly trained PAVN defeated the PLA, killing up to 63,000 Chinese soldiers and capturing hundreds more.

In his 1985 book, Defending China, Gerald Segal writes that China's 1979 war against Vietnam was a complete failure: “China failed to force a Vietnamese withdrawal from Cambodia, failed to end border clashes, failed to cast doubt on the strength of the Soviet power, failed to dispel the image of China as a paper tiger, and failed to draw the United States into an anti-Soviet coalition.”

After years of unsuccessful negotiations, a border pact was finally signed between the two countries in 1999.

 

The Chinese got destroyed... by Vietnam. They also haven't had combat experience, as you said, since 1979: almost 40 years. They are basically relying on any tech/hardware advantage to bully other countries at this point. 

 

 

 

 

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