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2019 Lok Sabha elections thread


FischerTal

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@Yoda-esque from Pritish's brother before 2015 WC:

 

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India has stormed into the semi-finals of the ICC Cricket World Cup and are now a step closer to the coveted 'Champions' title for the third time. As most of India roots for the boys in blue, sociologist Ashis Nandy feels that winning the World Cup might just make India's macho and hyper masculine nationalism more intense. Over the last few months, there seems to have been an effort to make a pluralistic India into a homogenized Hindu state where the space for dissent has diminished, churches are regularly 'robbed', talk of religious conversion is rampant, and there's banning of many things, including beef. In case India wins the World Cup, the fear is that majoritarian nationalism will become more aggressive.

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3 minutes ago, Yoda-esque said:

Buy most of the I got bongs supporting him on that thread arent.


Sent from my LM-Q710.FG using Tapatalk
 

Situation on the ground is different, social media doesn't capture that. Green tsunami is coming and most Bong Hindus are wary now. 

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These Goddess worshipers were nowhere to be seen during Kamduni gangrape murder and Park Street rape cases? TMC, Mamata, intellectuals were firmly on the side of the rapists. In fact the accomplice of Park Street rapist is fighting on TMC ticket in Basirhat, her name is Nusrat Jahan. 

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I've watched spokespersons of different political parties speak about elections on national TV but TMC spokespersons are a different breed. Yesterday a TMC man in a studio was connecting Indian election fever to his Bangladeshi brothers, Rabindranath Tagore & Rabindra Sangeet. 

Edited by Turning_track
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On 5/7/2019 at 11:42 PM, ravishingravi said:

You are right. That is Amit Shah's calculation also. He is saying everywhere it is battle for 50 % votes.  

 

On 5/7/2019 at 11:35 PM, Yoda-esque said:

Losing 40 in UP is impossible for BJP.Let me explain why.

 

I was looking at 2014 results and I added up SP+BSP votes in seats that BJP won.I found 38 seats in which BJP still was over .

So the lower limit is 38 for sure.

 

No coming to the SP+BSP Thugbandhan, there is going to be a 2-4% vote leakage.Add Modi factor of 2% (being conservative) and we are looking at a 5-6% loss on BSP-SP .I am still analyzing the percent of seats where SP+BSP will win with a max of 3-4% vote share.But I believe that there would be atleast 7-8 seats that way.

 

So according to my calculation, BJP will win 45-46 seats realistically, thats a net loss of 25 seats or so.

 

 

 

Amit Shah said there would be 15 % discontent voters from hith SP and bsp when voting for the other in the MG seats but that seems a but too much ,I predict around 5-10% voters in that category I.e a bsp core voter not voting for sp candidate and vice versa .they might vote for BJP this time .

UP might spring a surprise, it might be even 55 ,it might be 35 as well ,eay too uncertain but yogi did a good job in holding the campaign together. 

WB and odhisa must be the big gainer for BJP, they will get around 20 seats from these 2 

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