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Unrest mounts across multiple US cities over the death of George Floyd

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8 hours ago, beetle said:

Please don't use the house on fire explanation .

Why not?  It is actually a decent analogy. 

 

An American football player explained it recently.  If two guys are hurt during the course of play and the physios rush to the guy who is lying paralyzed on the ground rather than the guy who is bleeding in his knee, it doesn't mean that the knee-guy doesn't matter.  He matters as much, but right now, he doesn't need much care and the other guy needs much more attention. 

 

It is an obvious, self-evident truth that all lives matter.  It doesn't bear mentioning.  But "all" has excluded Blacks for a long time.  Black lives have mattered less in America for centuries.  They are making the point, and inserting an obvious "All lives matter" takes away from that message.  It is a nuance.  

 

 

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10 hours ago, beetle said:

What I don't understand about BLM movement is why All lives matter is considered anti bln.

 

I get that it is time for issues of black people to be highlighted...but  how does it make all lives matter 'racist'. All lives include black lives.

 

And how are slogans like' black lives matter more' or ' no lives matter till black lives matter' not racist. 

 

Please don't use the house on fire explanation . All lives should matter and people should not be asked to be apologetic for that.

 

Something else I don't understand is why celebrities or influences on SM media are being shamed and forced to support the movement ,even the ones who are not Americans or who themselves are colored ( not black) .

Not just shamed but bullied for not supporting the way the ' movement activist' feel is the right way. People are being forced to donate .

 

Even people with plant life blogs or kitten blogs are being shamed for not becoming supporters enough.

These vigilantes bullies are like the rioters who are using the movement to get their few days of power .

Because All Lives aren't at equal risk. A good example is if someone is having a heart attack and the doctors tend to him, and you say "hey, how come you guys don't care about my heath?" Its not that the doctors don't care about your health, its that your health is fine right now and not as much of a priority as the guy who's almost dead. 

 

 

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23 hours ago, FischerTal said:

again, this is a simplistic view. I would ask you to read this article when it comes to analyzing the White swing voter.  I do believe the Democrats will end up sacrificing many of these voters with the recent protests, which have been largely constricted to Blue states. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/the-tyranny-of-the-unwoke-white-swing-voter.html

 

and NYMag is by no means a conservative outlet. 

It is a simplistic view, but the complexities are statistically significant. Are there blacks who will vote for Trump? Yes, but they are at most 5% of the total Black voter base. Are there racist whites who were going to vote for Biden, and now are changing to Trump? Again yes, but a tiny fraction relative to the overall majority.

 

The bottom line is the black vote was 7% lower in 2016 than 2012, and Trump won an election by fractions of that number. If we assume - and its a reasonable assumption - that all other things hold, galvanization of the black vote due to BLM/George Floyd can carry Biden into office. 

 

The white vote is already maximal. The black vote is vastly sub-maximal. Therefore, I believe that is the actual king-making bloc, not the white Independents who already vote at very high levels. 

 

Your point about the independents relies on the fact that a large group of white independents will suddenly become racist or realize Trump is better for white voters. I can't see that happening when the last 3 years has been so racially charged and divisive. I don't think ENOUGH people were waiting for George Floyd in mid 2020 to determine which side of the racial divide they want to be on. 

 

But BLM/Floyd isn't the only issue that will affect the elections. COVID/economic fallout, tensions with China, the fight over mail-in-voting slash voter suppression has every potential to outweigh BLM/Floyd. One interesting thing is that BLM is picking up supporters from pockets that were non-existent before. Examples include Netflix adding a BLM genre that I just noticed last night, and the NFL now coming out and siding with the black players. Even if this is corporate opportunism, it reflects a shift in the existent denialism that Black Lives Don't Matter (any more than other lives). 

 

The NY mag article is from 2019 and isn't accounting for BLM and COVID. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, The Cricket Cast said:

It is a simplistic view, but the complexities are statistically significant. Are there blacks who will vote for Trump? Yes, but they are at most 5% of the total Black voter base. Are there racist whites who were going to vote for Biden, and now are changing to Trump? Again yes, but a tiny fraction relative to the overall majority.

Still wrong to assume all Trump voters are racists. Hillary did the same and lost PA, MI and WI which she was supposed to win. She lost NC and VA which she would have list anyway. Finally, she lost all swing states that mattered.

3 hours ago, The Cricket Cast said:

 

The bottom line is the black vote was 7% lower in 2016 than 2012, and Trump won an election by fractions of that number. If we assume - and its a reasonable assumption - that all other things hold, galvanization of the black vote due to BLM/George Floyd can carry Biden into office. 
 

Galvanizing BLM/Floyd might have gotten Biden all black votes, but a lot of middle America that saw the looting and shaming of police force would not vote for Biden. Now, their demand to defund PD is so impractical that any attempt will sway more votes to Trump. Either way, the impeachment and this BLM might have sealed the election in Trump’s favor.

3 hours ago, The Cricket Cast said:

 

The white vote is already maximal. The black vote is vastly sub-maximal. Therefore, I believe that is the actual king-making bloc, not the white Independents who already vote at very high levels. 


 

who white vote will matter, I think they will rather go with Trump than left socialist Biden.

3 hours ago, The Cricket Cast said:

Your point about the independents relies on the fact that a large group of white independents will suddenly become racist or realize Trump is better for white voters. I can't see that happening when the last 3 years has been so racially charged and divisive. I don't think ENOUGH people were waiting for George Floyd in mid 2020 to determine which side of the racial divide they want to be on. 
 

Again wrong to assume only racists vote for Trump. He has got great approval ratings in the last year after the impeachment and the wrong images of BLM would sway more towards Trump.

3 hours ago, The Cricket Cast said:

 

But BLM/Floyd isn't the only issue that will affect the elections. COVID/economic fallout, tensions with China, the fight over mail-in-voting slash voter suppression has every potential to outweigh BLM/Floyd.
 

Not sure how his covid handling affect elections, but BLM would make some shift back towards him.

3 hours ago, The Cricket Cast said:

 

One interesting thing is that BLM is picking up supporters from pockets that were non-existent before. Examples include Netflix adding a BLM genre that I just noticed last night, and the NFL now coming out and siding with the black players. Even if this is corporate opportunism, it reflects a shift in the existent denialism that Black Lives Don't Matter (any more than other lives). 


 

Nah, there is a lot of America that doesn’t have broadband internet for Netflix to reach them.

3 hours ago, The Cricket Cast said:

 

 

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20 hours ago, The Cricket Cast said:

Your point about the independents relies on the fact that a large group of white independents will suddenly become racist or realize Trump is better for white voters. I can't see that happening when the last 3 years has been so racially charged and divisive. I don't think ENOUGH people were waiting for George Floyd in mid 2020 to determine which side of the racial divide they want to be on. 

 

But BLM/Floyd isn't the only issue that will affect the elections. COVID/economic fallout, tensions with China, the fight over mail-in-voting slash voter suppression has every potential to outweigh BLM/Floyd. One interesting thing is that BLM is picking up supporters from pockets that were non-existent before. Examples include Netflix adding a BLM genre that I just noticed last night, and the NFL now coming out and siding with the black players. Even if this is corporate opportunism, it reflects a shift in the existent denialism that Black Lives Don't Matter (any more than other lives). 

 

 

White voters don't vote for trump because they are racist. That's a very minority-centric view. They vote for trump because he's the one who acknowledges their fears. White working-class america is the poorest it has been since the great depression. Massive job losses, opioid epidemic, an inability to treat chronic diseases in combination with COVID have left them extremely vulnerable. White life expectancy is actually declining - which is incredible when you consider that america is objectively a first world country.

 

PA, MI don't have enough black voters, IMO. At least not enough to over-turn the disgruntled white working class demographic that will trump will target.

 

I highly doubt that the BLM nonsense, highlighted by all the pointless rioting and destruction of property, pays off during election time - when the issue of race relations takes a back-seat to issues relating to economy and everything else. Whiny, netflix-watching teenagers don't turn elections.

 

Don't rule out foreign interference either. The EU wants the democrats re-elected (hence the 'echo' BLM protests in european capitals) but the chinese and russians probably have other ideas...and could happily play the 'villain' in a scenario where trump could benefit. Depending on the deal trump chooses to cut with them.

 

Trump could also create hysteria around a potential war with Iran. There's zero chance of americans putting 'race relations' ahead of national security. If american troops take up screen-time during the election, trump could benefit immensely by putting on his 'commander in chief' act.

 

So many possibilities. Public sentiment is erratic, and the idea of a 'new america' being pushed by corporate elites and politicians isn't easily understood, especially when it becomes 'us versus them'.

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7 minutes ago, Manny_Pacquiao said:

White voters don't vote for trump because they are racist. That's a very minority-centric view. They vote for trump because he's the one who acknowledges their fears. White working-class america is the poorest it has been since the great depression. Massive job losses, opioid epidemic, an inability to treat chronic diseases in combination with COVID have left them extremely vulnerable. White life expectancy is actually declining - which is incredible when you consider that america is objectively a first world country.

 

PA, MI don't have enough black voters, IMO. At least not enough to over-turn the disgruntled white working class demographic that will trump will target.

 

I highly doubt that the BLM nonsense, highlighted by all the pointless rioting and destruction of property, pays off during election time - when the issue of race relations takes a back-seat to issues relating to economy and everything else. Whiny, netflix-watching teenagers don't turn elections.

 

Don't rule out foreign interference either. The EU wants the democrats re-elected (hence the 'echo' BLM protests in european capitals) but the chinese and russians probably have other ideas...and could happily play the 'villain' in a scenario where trump could benefit. Depending on the deal trump chooses to cut with them.

 

Trump could also create hysteria around a potential war with Iran. There's zero chance of americans putting 'race relations' ahead of national security. If american troops take up screen-time during the election, trump could benefit immensely by putting on his 'commander in chief' act.

 

So many possibilities. Public sentiment is erratic, and the idea of a 'new america' being pushed by corporate elites and politicians isn't easily understood, especially when it becomes 'us versus them'.

Actually, is it actually vote for Trump Or his message? I would argue its the latter, as despite being sexist, crazy, erratic, he got the votes in 2016. It was also largely aided to anti-Clinton who respected the establishment.

 

Now, his message isn't as effective nor unique. He has huge anti-incumbency, and this year seems to be year of change. Democracy has radical ideas, and changes, and that attracts the some of the same crowd who voted for Trump's message in 2016.

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19 minutes ago, someone said:

Actually, is it actually vote for Trump Or his message? I would argue its the latter, as despite being sexist, crazy, erratic, he got the votes in 2016. It was also largely aided to anti-Clinton who respected the establishment.

 

Now, his message isn't as effective nor unique. He has huge anti-incumbency, and this year seems to be year of change. Democracy has radical ideas, and changes, and that attracts the some of the same crowd who voted for Trump's message in 2016.

True to an extent, but Trump is still firmly anti-establishment. His image still holds. And he could be aided by other factors - such as being 'TOUGH' on china and iran. Bear in mind, that trump wasn't a 'popular' candidate in 2016 either. He's seen as the lesser of the 2 evils.

 

You're downplaying the significance of skin color. White voters across many states are very reluctant to vote democrat. They are being pushed into a corner, and unless the democrats find a way to get [some of] their votes, they'll lose.

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26 minutes ago, Manny_Pacquiao said:

True to an extent, but Trump is still firmly anti-establishment. His image still holds. And he could be aided by other factors - such as being 'TOUGH' on china and iran. Bear in mind, that trump wasn't a 'popular' candidate in 2016 either. He's seen as the lesser of the 2 evils.

 

You're downplaying the significance of skin color. White voters across many states are very reluctant to vote democrat. They are being pushed into a corner, and unless the democrats find a way to get [some of] their votes, they'll lose.

"The Same Cannot Continue". That was Trump's core and vocal message in 2016, and why many voted for this message, not really Trump. Now this message is completely with the democrats, and further enhanced by BLM movement. Thus, Trump represent the status quo or the establishment.

 

White do not vote as a bloc, but in certain battleground states, there are more conservative white voters and thus greater influence. Trump didn't build the WALL, and was heavily focused on the local economy as his only strength but Covid has changed it. The local issues now are very dominant, and Trump currently has no message nor any solution. Unless some drastic new events happens in 3-4 months, it's going to one boring and predictable election.

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16 minutes ago, someone said:

"The Same Cannot Continue". That was Trump's core and vocal message in 2016, and why many voted for this message, not really Trump. Now this message is completely with the democrats, and further enhanced by BLM movement. Thus, Trump represent the status quo or the establishment.

 

White do not vote as a bloc, but in certain battleground states, there are more conservative white voters and thus greater influence. Trump didn't build the WALL, and was heavily focused on the local economy as his only strength but Covid has changed it. The local issues now are very dominant, and Trump currently has no message nor any solution. Unless some drastic new events happens in 3-4 months, it's going to one boring and predictable election.

But BLM is a black-oriented movement, and it does NOT win support from whites. Trump is the face of white anti-establishment sentiment. That has not changed. Democrats do not have an 'anti-establishment' image to sell to the white (or independent) population.

 

The 2nd comment is very, very wrong. Whites absolutely vote as a bloc. Can you guess the last time a democrat won a majority of the white vote? Guess....and then scroll down to read the answer.................

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

............1968.

 

That was a long time ago. Whites are firmly republican in several states. The democrats counted on the 'blue wall' in the midwest but trump broke it in 2016 by re-making the party's image to appeal to white working class voters

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7 minutes ago, Manny_Pacquiao said:

But BLM is a black-oriented movement, and it does NOT win support from whites. Trump is the face of white anti-establishment sentiment. That has not changed. Democrats do not have an 'anti-establishment' image to sell to the white (or independent) population.

 

The 2nd comment is very, very wrong. Whites absolutely vote as a bloc. Can you guess the last time a democrat won a majority of the white vote? Guess....and then scroll down to read the answer...1968.

 

That was a long time ago. Whites are firmly republican in several states. The democrats counted on the 'blue wall' in the midwest but trump broke it in 2016 by re-making the party's image to appeal to white working class voters

You are naive. BLM, there is whites in the movement and they have a large mixed support. Trump was the face of CHANGE in 2016. That's it, he himself has little appeal but his vocal, aggressive behavior meant his message was popular, and that was enough for him to win the battleground states in 2016.  Now, it is 2020, and the face of CHANGE is not Trump. It is democratic party aided by BLM.

 

If white vote as a bloc, Trump would win every state in USA. There are subsections and groups within whites.

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50 minutes ago, someone said:

You are naive. BLM, there is whites in the movement and they have a large mixed support. Trump was the face of CHANGE in 2016. That's it, he himself has little appeal but his vocal, aggressive behavior meant his message was popular, and that was enough for him to win the battleground states in 2016.  Now, it is 2020, and the face of CHANGE is not Trump. It is democratic party aided by BLM.

 

If white vote as a bloc, Trump would win every state in USA. There are subsections and groups within whites.

You misunderstood me. I'm referring to the white vote that forms trump's base. That bloc is going nowhere, they vote republican even if somebody else was leading the party. And that bloc has grown, and could potentially hold firm in key states.

 

You're forgetting that this BLM nonsense has been around for many years now - it started way back in 2013-14. It's not some kind of 'new' anti-establishment movement that people haven't heard of before.

 

BLM is meant to attract black voters, and its part of an outreach that was planned several months ago: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/clyburn-calls-on-biden-to-start-get-out-the-vote-efforts-hire-more-black-staff.html

 

That is why it won't get widespread support from the white community. It doesn't represent change, its an old message with new faces and corporate backing. You'd be surprised at how oblivious whites (and many other americans) are to any 'black suffering'. They don't really care.

 

Yes, whites in democrat-run states will be vocal in their support, but those guys were anti-trump anyway.

 

 

Trump is a brilliant campaigner and a shrewd strategist. Biden is a weak opponent. Trump will know exactly what to do say during election time. Which is why the democrats are desperately trying to provoke the black community into voting for them.

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14 hours ago, Manny_Pacquiao said:

You misunderstood me. I'm referring to the white vote that forms trump's base. That bloc is going nowhere, they vote republican even if somebody else was leading the party. And that bloc has grown, and could potentially hold firm in key states.

 

You're forgetting that this BLM nonsense has been around for many years now - it started way back in 2013-14. It's not some kind of 'new' anti-establishment movement that people haven't heard of before.

 

BLM is meant to attract black voters, and its part of an outreach that was planned several months ago: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/clyburn-calls-on-biden-to-start-get-out-the-vote-efforts-hire-more-black-staff.html

 

That is why it won't get widespread support from the white community. It doesn't represent change, its an old message with new faces and corporate backing. You'd be surprised at how oblivious whites (and many other americans) are to any 'black suffering'. They don't really care.

 

Yes, whites in democrat-run states will be vocal in their support, but those guys were anti-trump anyway.

 

 

Trump is a brilliant campaigner and a shrewd strategist. Biden is a weak opponent. Trump will know exactly what to do say during election time. Which is why the democrats are desperately trying to provoke the black community into voting for them.

How much white conservative vote will Trump retain? Most is correct yet he will lose some share. He hasn’t fulfilled many of his promises ( eg. Wall), and people will vote for Trump now, not his message.  His image, record, achievements matter now. 

 

In 2016, the terrible negative image of Trump was ignored by many voters as his message of change was more important. Now , he cant play the same thing.

 

Where is he going to get new votes? Hispanic, and many other minorities are against him, and more so currently with the BLM. Some of his support base is getting disillusioned and he has no other new vote banks...

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On 6/10/2020 at 7:26 PM, coffee_rules said:

Still wrong to assume all Trump voters are racists. Hillary did the same and lost PA, MI and WI which she was supposed to win. She lost NC and VA which she would have list anyway. Finally, she lost all swing states that mattered.

Galvanizing BLM/Floyd might have gotten Biden all black votes, but a lot of middle America that saw the looting and shaming of police force would not vote for Biden. Now, their demand to defund PD is so impractical that any attempt will sway more votes to Trump. Either way, the impeachment and this BLM might have sealed the election in Trump’s favor.

who white vote will matter, I think they will rather go with Trump than left socialist Biden.

Again wrong to assume only racists vote for Trump. He has got great approval ratings in the last year after the impeachment and the wrong images of BLM would sway more towards Trump.

Not sure how his covid handling affect elections, but BLM would make some shift back towards him.

Nah, there is a lot of America that doesn’t have broadband internet for Netflix to reach them.

 

I don't think all Trump voters are racists. Thats an overly simplistic categorization. Some think he's better for business. Others think he will drain the swamp of establishment corruption. Some think he will secure the industries they work in. However, theoretical Biden voters who will change to Trump purely because of BLM don't exist. That would be only 1% of the electorate at best. That can't swing an election. Especially not if the African American vote increases by 7% for the exact same reason.  

 

PA, MI, WI were decided by razor thin margins...perhaps 150K votes in an election with 100 million voters total. 

 

We also have to factor in the youth white vote. Young whites are probably split 50-50 or 55-45 between Biden to Trump. But a large number of them also don't vote. This is why HRC only had 2 million more votes than Trump in 2016. A lot of these young whites have suddenly jumped on the BLM bandwagon. Whether they are genuine (I believe most are) or they are just doing it because its the latest fad is not relevant.

 

Polling data seems to suggest that Biden has a much larger lead than HRC did at the same time in 2016. That to me suggests that 2020 will be a tight contest and not the cakewalk that some people are suggesting. Polarization tends to galvanize everyone, but the Trump side already has maximal turnout. The independents that would have switched to Biden simply due to BLM or even impeachement don't exist. You don't wait 2 or 3 years to realize where you stand on those issues. You don't need to deliberate for 2 years on whether you are like or dislike black people dying for little to no reason. That is the essence of BLM as an issue. 

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1 hour ago, The Cricket Cast said:

I don't think all Trump voters are racists. Thats an overly simplistic categorization. Some think he's better for business. Others think he will drain the swamp of establishment corruption. Some think he will secure the industries they work in. However, theoretical Biden voters who will change to Trump purely because of BLM don't exist. That would be only 1% of the electorate at best. That can't swing an election. Especially not if the African American vote increases by 7% for the exact same reason.  

 

PA, MI, WI were decided by razor thin margins...perhaps 150K votes in an election with 100 million voters total. 

 

We also have to factor in the youth white vote. Young whites are probably split 50-50 or 55-45 between Biden to Trump. But a large number of them also don't vote. This is why HRC only had 2 million more votes than Trump in 2016. A lot of these young whites have suddenly jumped on the BLM bandwagon. Whether they are genuine (I believe most are) or they are just doing it because its the latest fad is not relevant.

 

Polling data seems to suggest that Biden has a much larger lead than HRC did at the same time in 2016. That to me suggests that 2020 will be a tight contest and not the cakewalk that some people are suggesting. Polarization tends to galvanize everyone, but the Trump side already has maximal turnout. The independents that would have switched to Biden simply due to BLM or even impeachement don't exist. You don't wait 2 or 3 years to realize where you stand on those issues. You don't need to deliberate for 2 years on whether you are like or dislike black people dying for little to no reason. That is the essence of BLM as an issue. 

 

The black vote won't increase by 7%. Biden isn't a strong enough candidate, and no amount of staged lynchings and televised killings of black people will encourage them...especially when they have lasting memories of their community being repressed by phony democrat law-makers. Don't ever mistake noise for public opinion.

 

Trump could easily take credit for criminal justice reform and attack the democrats' record on mass incarceration. There's plenty of weak spots.

 

And young whites aren't voting for biden. In fact, young whites have no clue about what the f*** is going on. They're too uninformed to take a stance one way or the other, and they don't consider themselves to be inherently 'racist' so why would they vote for change?

 

To develop an informed opinion on racism, you have to be impacted by it. More importantly, you need to see examples of it in your day to day life. Most young, college-going whites haven't lived long enough to 'see' racism with their own eyes, they've only heard about it from others. This makes a huge difference.

 

The BLM nonsense might...provoke enough 'guilt' to shame the older white demographic into switching sides.

 

You're vastly over-estimating the importance of 'race relations' to the average voter. Here's the more important issue: how can the democrats win back the white working class? That's the question every democratic strategist should be asking themselves.

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5 hours ago, Manny_Pacquiao said:

 

The black vote won't increase by 7%. Biden isn't a strong enough candidate, and no amount of staged lynchings and televised killings of black people will encourage them...especially when they have lasting memories of their community being repressed by phony democrat law-makers. Don't ever mistake noise for public opinion.

 

Trump could easily take credit for criminal justice reform and attack the democrats' record on mass incarceration. There's plenty of weak spots.

 

And young whites aren't voting for biden. In fact, young whites have no clue about what the f*** is going on. They're too uninformed to take a stance one way or the other, and they don't consider themselves to be inherently 'racist' so why would they vote for change?

 

To develop an informed opinion on racism, you have to be impacted by it. More importantly, you need to see examples of it in your day to day life. Most young, college-going whites haven't lived long enough to 'see' racism with their own eyes, they've only heard about it from others. This makes a huge difference.

 

The BLM nonsense might...provoke enough 'guilt' to shame the older white demographic into switching sides.

 

You're vastly over-estimating the importance of 'race relations' to the average voter. Here's the more important issue: how can the democrats win back the white working class? That's the question every democratic strategist should be asking themselves.

To be honest, there is no way to actually determine anything short of actual election results. However, I disagree on with many of your points. For example:

 

Quote

The black vote won't increase by 7%.

It doesn't have to increase - that would require a growth in the population which isn't going to happen in 5 months. The percentage merely needs to get close to what it was in 2012. Thats an increase from 2016 which was a historical low, but its not an absolute increase. 

 

Quote

Trump could easily take credit for criminal justice reform and attack the democrats' record on mass incarceration. There's plenty of weak spots.

That 7% of black people will never believe Trump over Biden no matter how weak Biden may be.  Hillary was even weaker candidate and she still got 85-90% of the minority vote whether it was blacks, latinos, LGBTQ, etc. 

 

Quote

And young whites aren't voting for biden. In fact, young whites have no clue about what the f*** is going on. They're too uninformed to take a stance one way or the other, and they don't consider themselves to be inherently 'racist' so why would they vote for change?

 

Biden will win the under 35 white vote, half of whom are women. Biden will lose the over 35 white vote, and he will lose the overall white vote, but he will win the U-35s. 

 

Did you know that Obama won two elections with only 40% of the white vote (don't remember the exact %)? Its because 7% more blacks voted for him and he got the U-35 white vote (probably split it 50-50 with the GOP). 

 

Quote

To develop an informed opinion on racism, you have to be impacted by it. More importantly, you need to see examples of it in your day to day life. Most young, college-going whites haven't lived long enough to 'see' racism with their own eyes, they've only heard about it from others. This makes a huge difference.

You don't need an informed opinion to vote. You just need an opinion. Think about Hitler's 1934 win in Germany...that the most uninformed electorate of all time. You just need galvanization. 

 

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The BLM nonsense might...provoke enough 'guilt' to shame the older white demographic into switching sides.

Again I disagree. Older whites don't care about BLM. Why would they? Its the younger ones out on the streets. Older whites will vote Trump 65-35. Because Biden is a white man, he will get an additional 10-15% support vs Hillary or Obama, but he will still lose the 35+ white vote by a massive margin. 

 

Quote

You're vastly over-estimating the importance of 'race relations' to the average voter. Here's the more important issue: how can the democrats win back the white working class? That's the question every democratic strategist should be asking themselves.

Dems cannot win back the white working class. Not unless they become conservatives. 

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22 hours ago, The Cricket Cast said:

To be honest, there is no way to actually determine anything short of actual election results. However, I disagree on with many of your points. For example:

 

It doesn't have to increase - that would require a growth in the population which isn't going to happen in 5 months. The percentage merely needs to get close to what it was in 2012. Thats an increase from 2016 which was a historical low, but its not an absolute increase. 

 

That 7% of black people will never believe Trump over Biden no matter how weak Biden may be.  Hillary was even weaker candidate and she still got 85-90% of the minority vote whether it was blacks, latinos, LGBTQ, etc. 

 

 

Biden will win the under 35 white vote, half of whom are women. Biden will lose the over 35 white vote, and he will lose the overall white vote, but he will win the U-35s. 

 

Did you know that Obama won two elections with only 40% of the white vote (don't remember the exact %)? Its because 7% more blacks voted for him and he got the U-35 white vote (probably split it 50-50 with the GOP). 

 

You don't need an informed opinion to vote. You just need an opinion. Think about Hitler's 1934 win in Germany...that the most uninformed electorate of all time. You just need galvanization. 

 

Again I disagree. Older whites don't care about BLM. Why would they? Its the younger ones out on the streets. Older whites will vote Trump 65-35. Because Biden is a white man, he will get an additional 10-15% support vs Hillary or Obama, but he will still lose the 35+ white vote by a massive margin. 

 

Dems cannot win back the white working class. Not unless they become conservatives. 

 

I agree, blacks won't believe trump over biden, but my whole point is that they won't vote for biden. They'll stay home or they won't be able to vote for whatever reason. All trump has to do is highlight biden's record on mass incarceration. Once it gets out in the media, like Hilary's 'super predator' comments, that's job done.

 

Even if biden wins the u35 white vote, will the margin be significant? I don't see it being as significant as it needs to be. And the turnout won't be as big as expected either.

 

Obama is a poor comparison for anything relating to biden. 2008 was a 'change' year and obama had a noticeably high level of bipartisan support following 8 years of George dubya bush. The idea of the 'first black president' felt like an incredible milestone in american history (and it was!), which predictably drew unprecedented minority support. What are we looking forward to this time? All i see is polarization, distrust, and confusion, punctuated by widespread poverty and misery all around.

 

Obama won 43% of the white vote in 2008, which was almost the same as kerry, gore and clinton in years prior. Obama in 2012 was still a dominant winner in the key swing states (PA, MI, WI), which will almost certainly be persuaded to vote against Biden and the democrats in 2020.

 

My prediction: Trump will win 60% of the white vote, and they'll vote for him in record numbers.

 

The choice confronting most voters is the same as in 2016: the lesser of the two evils.

 

Biden has zero appeal with the white electorate, across all demographics.

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