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Playoff race is heating up!

zen

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zen Grand Master

zen

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6 minutes ago, Vijy said:

seems like first 2 are going through, and possibly RR as well. last slot seems up for grabs

 

For RCB, DC, PK, & SRH every game is almost a virtual knockout i.e. if they lose one, all the remaining games have to be won 

 

RCB, PK, & SRH play 2 games against each other so may cut into each others points. We may also get a situation where teams competing for the 4th spot end up with 7 wins 

 

Interesting games ahead!  

 

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zen Grand Master

zen

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After 55 group games w/ teams targeting 8 or more wins 

 

Team - Wins required in remaining games to get to 8 wins % 

 

LSG - 0%

GT - 0%

RR - 33%

RCB - 50%

DC, PK, & SRH - 100% 

 

There may be a situation where 7 wins (and a good NRR) can give a team the 4th spot 

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zen Grand Master

zen

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The reason that the 3rd team from Group A is still in with a theoretical chance is because Group A teams play more against KKR & MI, which have given points to other teams. If you lose to KKR & MI, you have only yourself to blame. 

 

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Majestic Grand Master

Majestic

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RCB 7 in 12, NRR in (-ve)

DC 5 in 11, NRR in (+ve)

SRH 5 in 11, NRR in (-ve but better than RCB)

PK 5 in 11, NRR in (-ve and worst)

 

SRH next 3 games are against :

 

KKR

MI

PK

 

That's pretty easy games to follow.

 

RCB two games are :-

 

GT

PK

 

DC three games are :

 

RR

PK

MI

 

And PK three games are :

 

SRH

RCB

DC

Edited by Majestic
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zen Grand Master

zen

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A scenario where a team with 7 win can qualify (excluding RR which is on 7 wins but has 3 games on hand at the moment): 

  • RCB loses both its remaining games - 7 wins 
  • DC, PK, & SRH lose one of their remaining games - 7 wins 
  • CSK & KKR win all their matches - 7 wins 

 

Edited by zen
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Mariyam Grand Master

Mariyam

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23 hours ago, zen said:

The reason that the 3rd team from Group A is still in with a theoretical chance is because Group A teams play more against KKR & MI, which have given points to other teams. If you lose to KKR & MI, you have only yourself to blame. 

 

Like GT? :dontknow:

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zen Grand Master

zen

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We talked about scenarios where teams can go to playoffs with 7-8 wins. However, there is also a scenario where 8 wins will not be enough. The other 3 teams seeking the playoff Q: 

  • LSG loses to RR & beats KKR = 9 wins
  • RCB beats PK & GT = 9 wins 
  • RR beats LSG & CSK = 9 wins 

 

 

 

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SeasonedIPLer Contributor

SeasonedIPLer

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32 minutes ago, zen said:

We talked about scenarios where teams can go to playoffs with 7-8 wins. However, there is also a scenario where 8 wins will not be enough. The other 3 teams seeking the playoff Q: 

  • LSG loses to RR & beats KKR = 9 wins
  • RCB beats PK & GT = 9 wins 
  • RR beats LSG & CSK = 9 wins 

 

 

 

So looks like anything from 7 wins to 9 wins can get you to playoffs

 

obviously all dependent on many results 

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zen Grand Master

zen

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Let's look at the range of teams currently looking at the playoff: 

 

LSG - 8 to 10 wins

RR - 7 to 9 wins 

RCB - 7 to 8 wins 

DC & PK - 6 to 8 wins 

SRH - 5 to 8 wins

KKR - 5 to 7 wins 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by zen
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zen Grand Master

zen

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A scenario where 4 teams could end up with 8 wins:

 

LSG - loses to RR & KKR = 8 wins

RR - beats LSG & loses to CSK = 8 wins

RCB - beats GT = 8 wins

DC - beats PK & MI = 8 wins; PK - beats DC & SRH = 8 wins; SRH beats KKR, MI, & PK = 8 wins 

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Majestic Grand Master

Majestic

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4 hours ago, zen said:

A scenario where 4 teams could end up with 8 wins:

 

LSG - loses to RR & KKR = 8 wins

RR - beats LSG & loses to CSK = 8 wins

RCB - beats GT = 8 wins

DC - beats PK & MI = 8 wins; PK - beats DC & SRH = 8 wins; SRH beats KKR, MI, & PK = 8 wins 

So, RCB can get knocked out with 8 wins also as their NRR is worst among all these teams in contention.

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zen Grand Master

zen

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A scenario where 6 teams could end up with 7 wins:

 

RR loses to LSG & CSK = 7 wins

RCB loses to GT = 7 wins

DC loses to PK & beats MI = 7 wins

PK beats DC & loses to SRH = 7 wins

SRH beats MI & PK = 7 wins 

KKR beats LSG = 7 wins 

 

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zen Grand Master

zen

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Answering a few question that many of you may have: 

 

 

Can DC finish in the top 2? 

 

Yes. First it has to hope that both RR & LSG lose their final game against CSK & KKR respectively. Second, it would need to beat MI by around 13 runs or chase the total to cover those through NRR if batting 2nd.

 

 

What are RCB's chances?

 

For this to happen, first DC has to lose its last game to MI. Second, RCB would need to beat GT.

 

 

What are the chances of teams that can get to 7 wins if both DC & RCB lose their last game?

 

  • KKR - beat LSG by a margin of around 25 runs or cover those through NRR if batting 2nd 
  • PK - beat SRH by a margin of around 77 runs or cover those through NRR if batting 2nd  
  • SRH - since SRH has two games to go, we can discuss what it needs to do in the game versus PK, if it beats MI

 

 

PS the above is assuming that the losing sides' NRR does not change much after a loss (i.e. it loses on the last ball or a super over)

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Lord Grand Master

Lord

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6 minutes ago, zen said:

Answering a few question that many of you may have: 

 

 

Can DC finish in the top 2? 

 

Yes. First it has to hope that both RR & LSG lose their final game against CSK & KKR respectively. Second, it would need to beat MI by around 13 runs or chase the total to cover those through NRR if batting 2nd.

 

 

Can DC miss out of the playoffs? (Inversely, what are the chances of other teams) 

 

For this to happen, first DC has to lose its last game. Second, the other teams in contention would need to do the following: 

 

  • RCB - beat GT
  • KKR - beat LSG by a margin of around 25 runs or cover those through NRR if batting 2nd 
  • PK - beat SRH by a margin of around 77 runs or cover those through NRR if batting 2nd  

 

 

What about SRH?

 

Since SRH has two games to go, we can discuss what it needs to do in the game versus PK, if it beats MI. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

that 25 or 77 run margin would be total margin of DC's loss and respective team win,right?

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zen Grand Master

zen

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10 minutes ago, Lord said:

 

that 25 or 77 run margin would be total margin of DC's loss and respective team win,right?

 

If DC loses, its NRR would go down automatically, but assuming that DC's NRR does not change much (say it loses in superover), KKR or PK would need to beat the other team by those type of margins respectively. 

Edited by zen
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