Khota Posted January 27, 2023 Posted January 27, 2023 4 hours ago, G_B_ said: I feel they will go to court in India. Which is fair as most retail shareholders and banks who are lenders are Indian entities. CAG needs to audit them. That is exactly what the Hindenburg group wants them to do. If they have good lawyers, they will advise them not to go to court. If they go to court in India, the other group will go to court in Europe/US. That is the last thing Adnani wants. I have a feeling quite a bit of this report is true.
ravishingravi Posted January 27, 2023 Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, G_B_ said: any breakdown of which PSUs have what exposure? https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/india-banks-exposure-to-adani-group-is-limited-report/97371237?utm_source=RSS&utm_medium=ETRSS&redirect=1 G_B_ 1
G_B_ Posted January 27, 2023 Posted January 27, 2023 37 minutes ago, Khota said: That is exactly what the Hindenburg group wants them to do. If they have good lawyers, they will advise them not to go to court. If they go to court in India, the other group will go to court in Europe/US. That is the last thing Adnani wants. I have a feeling quite a bit of this report is true. Only time will tell... Adani have to do something to respond though. Status quo will hurt them Indian banks have ₹81,200 cr exposure to Adani group; 40% of its debt The CLSA report downplayed the banks' exposure by mentioning that it is 0.55% of system loans. https://www.fortuneindia.com/enterprise/indian-banks-have-81200-cr-exposure-to-adani-group-40-of-its-debt/111306 In any case I doubt the Indian banking sector will be impacted if true. Most loans are secured against tangible assets ranging from wind farms to airports who have good cash flow. Shareholders appear to be the only loss makers in this whole process. As mentioned before unlike say FTX which no tangible assets Adani has invested in tangible infra. This whole nonsense of biggest corporate fraud appears to be more at grabbing headlines which is politically motivated. This is not a Madoff style Ponzi scheme where money simply did not exist. Probably Adani did use shell companies to siphon off profit etc and did overvalue assets. But the value of those assets does not become 0 overnight. Your talking assets such as Mumbai airport.
Khota Posted January 27, 2023 Posted January 27, 2023 35 minutes ago, G_B_ said: Only time will tell... Adani have to do something to respond though. Status quo will hurt them Indian banks have ₹81,200 cr exposure to Adani group; 40% of its debt The CLSA report downplayed the banks' exposure by mentioning that it is 0.55% of system loans. https://www.fortuneindia.com/enterprise/indian-banks-have-81200-cr-exposure-to-adani-group-40-of-its-debt/111306 In any case I doubt the Indian banking sector will be impacted if true. Most loans are secured against tangible assets ranging from wind farms to airports who have good cash flow. Shareholders appear to be the only loss makers in this whole process. As mentioned before unlike say FTX which no tangible assets Adani has invested in tangible infra. This whole nonsense of biggest corporate fraud appears to be more at grabbing headlines which is politically motivated. This is not a Madoff style Ponzi scheme where money simply did not exist. Probably Adani did use shell companies to siphon off profit etc and did overvalue assets. But the value of those assets does not become 0 overnight. Your talking assets such as Mumbai airport. But still no lawsuit. I highly doubt they will sue.
ravishingravi Posted January 27, 2023 Posted January 27, 2023 2 hours ago, G_B_ said: Only time will tell... Adani have to do something to respond though. Status quo will hurt them Indian banks have ₹81,200 cr exposure to Adani group; 40% of its debt The CLSA report downplayed the banks' exposure by mentioning that it is 0.55% of system loans. https://www.fortuneindia.com/enterprise/indian-banks-have-81200-cr-exposure-to-adani-group-40-of-its-debt/111306 In any case I doubt the Indian banking sector will be impacted if true. Most loans are secured against tangible assets ranging from wind farms to airports who have good cash flow. Shareholders appear to be the only loss makers in this whole process. As mentioned before unlike say FTX which no tangible assets Adani has invested in tangible infra. This whole nonsense of biggest corporate fraud appears to be more at grabbing headlines which is politically motivated. This is not a Madoff style Ponzi scheme where money simply did not exist. Probably Adani did use shell companies to siphon off profit etc and did overvalue assets. But the value of those assets does not become 0 overnight. Your talking assets such as Mumbai airport. If I was Hidenburg and my business was short selling and making money, I would do the same.
ravishingravi Posted January 27, 2023 Posted January 27, 2023 Sharing from LinkedIn piece “ The five year old, five member large "short seller" Hindenburg research is currently under investigation of the US Department of Justice and Its fraud section, The US Securities and Exchange commission (SEC) and the FBI But that shouldn't be something of a concern for Indians as Hindenburg guys are American and speak English We must scare away Adani to Leave India like the 32 million Indians who have left India to become toilet cleaners, drivers, waiters, engineers, entrepreneurs and anything that an Indian thinks is a dream life in America After we shame and kick Adani out of India We will take credit for his success when he becomes an American citizen and claim how Indian education and Indian values led him to succeed in America Pretty much everything that Hindenburg research claims "it researched" was already public information, it only weaved a narrative out of it to make money out of the famed Indian insecurity, colonial inferiority complex and hatred for the rich and successful Adani's business models are risky, far too leveraged and capital intensive They are by no way the epitome of honesty and need to improve corporate governance But everything they have done till now has created millions of jobs in India Paid billions of taxes for your children And built the best infrastructure that India could never dream of Just like majority of Indian startups today register themselves in some foreign country, Adani will also do that tomorrow The jobs, the taxes, the development will go to that country and you'll be left here fighting Hindu-Muslim, Congress-BJP In 1991, India was the worlds 142nd poorest country In 2023, India is the world's 158th poorest country India is stuck because of our hatred for people who want to take India forward If we continue to hate our own people, just because they have made more money than us All our wealth and talent will continue to move overseas I support Adani Group and Gautam Bhai adani because they are the only hope of this nation that only likes foreign garbage as its choice for clothes to food to brands to the choice of research for getting scammed Hindenburg isn't short selling Adani, Hindenburg is short selling India What is hindenburg's credibility when they already have multiple legal investigation ongoing against them for market manipulation? “
Khota Posted January 27, 2023 Posted January 27, 2023 Not one specific allegation of Hindenberg has been denied.
G_B_ Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 17 hours ago, Khota said: But still no lawsuit. I highly doubt they will sue. I think anything will have to wait till their fpo. Lawsuits do take time. If they raise the desired capital then they will go slow and bide their time. Ultimately now liquidity is king for adani. May have to offload something like ambuja cement as it has buyers for $7 billion usd for their stake. Will be more than enough to tide them over in terms of servicing their debt and calming markets against insolvency. The share prices of adani companies are grossly overvalued. Its just market fundamentals that they correct. Probably need to fall another 20 to 30% to be somewhat realistic. Khota 1
G_B_ Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 Net adani debt is 2.2 lakh crore (around 28 usd billion). This figure appears to be not disputed by anybody. The adani plan was to pay down debt by selling equity via on fpo of roughly 3 billion. The short sellers appear to have struck at that to stop them. As mentioned before, Adani if they dont raise the stake they seek need to offload some assets.
jf1gp_1 Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 4 hours ago, G_B_ said: I think anything will have to wait till their fpo. Lawsuits do take time. If they raise the desired capital then they will go slow and bide their time. Ultimately now liquidity is king for adani. May have to offload something like ambuja cement as it has buyers for $7 billion usd for their stake. Will be more than enough to tide them over in terms of servicing their debt and calming markets against insolvency. The share prices of adani companies are grossly overvalued. Its just market fundamentals that they correct. Probably need to fall another 20 to 30% to be somewhat realistic. I had invest in Adani way back 2014 when Modi first came into power and still hold every share i purchased back then. Last 18 months the way they have stocks have moved, it was a no brainer they are all overvalued and could crash anytime. marginal change to top line and margin was resulting in stock to double, it was all artificial. I am obviously up multifold despite all the drop but whats happening is not surprising. Another 20% fall and i am exiting.
Khota Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 4 hours ago, G_B_ said: Net adani debt is 2.2 lakh crore (around 28 usd billion). This figure appears to be not disputed by anybody. The adani plan was to pay down debt by selling equity via on fpo of roughly 3 billion. The short sellers appear to have struck at that to stop them. As mentioned before, Adani if they dont raise the stake they seek need to offload some assets. One advantage Adani group has that it does have real assets. How much they are valued at I am not so sure of.
ravishingravi Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 4 hours ago, G_B_ said: Net adani debt is 2.2 lakh crore (around 28 usd billion). This figure appears to be not disputed by anybody. The adani plan was to pay down debt by selling equity via on fpo of roughly 3 billion. The short sellers appear to have struck at that to stop them. As mentioned before, Adani if they dont raise the stake they seek need to offload some assets. This FPO is critical. It could make or break Adani from market perspective. I think fundamentally nothing has changed. But like all big players in market know, this kind of selling doesn't happen without co-ordinated movement of big players who time these moves. If he gets through FPO somehow, he is in safe territory. If not, it could be a long struggle. G_B_ 1
Trichromatic Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 13 hours ago, Under_Score said: Hindenburg claims to have done research for a couple of years before coming out with these allegations, now it is up to Adani to prove that it is wrong.......I don't give a flying F about loan king Billionaire Adani....the ordinary people of India will suffer if Adani gets screwed.......in this video, it is explained in a simple language. Fact related question I clicked on the link and very first statement which I heard was that small investors lost 2.75 lakhs crore in a day. This doesn't seem to be true. Is there a source for such claims? Opinion related question Video claims that if Adani goes down then all banks will go down and entire economy of India will be destroyed. Again what's the basis of such opinion. This also seems to be exaggerated.
Khota Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 3 hours ago, ravishingravi said: Manu Manek =/= Hindenberg
rangeelaraja Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 The way to fight Hindenberg is very very simple. I am surprised that Adani bhai and his advisors have not picked it up. Activist short sellers like Hindenberg, Bill Ackman.. etc publicize their short selling targets to drive public sentiment down and destroy the stock. What do you do then ? You squeeze their short positions elsewhere by buying long through proxies, forcing an explosive short squeeze. Most recently Carl Icahn did that to Bill Ackman and destroyed Ackmans short position on Herbalife. I particularly remember that because I made a fortune on my Herbalife call options. What Adani should do is to exert buying pressure via proxies on the top 2 short selling positions ( other than Adani ) of Hindenberg. The ensuing squeeze will exert unbearable pain on Hindenberg … get the SOB Hindenberg to the negotiation table, clarify his doubts and ask him to close his Adani short or face bankcruptcy with a warning that this playbook would be repeated for all Hindenberg short positions. Short squeeze is a very very powerful tool to destroy short sellers. Many a hedge fund lost their shirt betting against Tesla. Under_Score 1
Khota Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, rangeelaraja said: The way to fight Hindenberg is very very simple. I am surprised that Adani bhai and his advisors have not picked it up. Activist short sellers like Hindenberg, Bill Ackman.. etc publicize their short selling targets to drive public sentiment down and destroy the stock. What do you do then ? You squeeze their short positions elsewhere by buying long through proxies, forcing an explosive short squeeze. Most recently Carl Icahn did that to Bill Ackman and destroyed Ackmans short position on Herbalife. I particularly remember that because I made a fortune on my Herbalife call options. What Adani should do is to exert buying pressure via proxies on the top 2 short selling positions ( other than Adani ) of Hindenberg. The ensuing squeeze will exert unbearable pain on Hindenberg … get the SOB Hindenberg to the negotiation table, clarify his doubts and ask him to close his Adani short or face bankcruptcy with a warning that this playbook would be repeated for all Hindenberg short positions. Short squeeze is a very very powerful tool to destroy short sellers. Many a hedge fund lost their shirt betting against Tesla. Wh do you take am approach to fight? Either they are telling the truth, or they are not. Not very complex.
rangeelaraja Posted January 28, 2023 Posted January 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, Khota said: Wh do you take am approach to fight? Either they are telling the truth, or they are not. Not very complex. Dude, I have been at Wall Street on the buy side for more than a decade. This is Wall Street way. Attack when attacked. the analysis on hindenburgs website is Bells and whistles, utter tripe. Pathetic third grade analysis. He is attacking adani cos for having high PE and PS ratios relative to industry standard and hence they should have an implied downside. that’s gutter level analysis. Amazon, Tesla and several other giants today have had astronomical PEs for an extended period of time. Then he goes on to attack the corporate governance at adani because all key positions are family and close associates. How is that any different from Ambani, who is passing the mantle to his children ? it’s a known fact that Indian corporates where founder families are major share holders - have poor corporate governance. then he brings up Muhua Moitra’s comment on adani stocks. The moment you refer that Mamtas screaming angry attack beaaach, you lose all credibility and that’s when I stopped reading his through crap analysis. I predict this will end very very badly for Hindenburg. ravishingravi, Under_Score and Number 2 1
ravishingravi Posted January 29, 2023 Posted January 29, 2023 10 hours ago, rangeelaraja said: Dude, I have been at Wall Street on the buy side for more than a decade. This is Wall Street way. Attack when attacked. the analysis on hindenburgs website is Bells and whistles, utter tripe. Pathetic third grade analysis. He is attacking adani cos for having high PE and PS ratios relative to industry standard and hence they should have an implied downside. that’s gutter level analysis. Amazon, Tesla and several other giants today have had astronomical PEs for an extended period of time. Then he goes on to attack the corporate governance at adani because all key positions are family and close associates. How is that any different from Ambani, who is passing the mantle to his children ? it’s a known fact that Indian corporates where founder families are major share holders - have poor corporate governance. then he brings up Muhua Moitra’s comment on adani stocks. The moment you refer that Mamtas screaming angry attack beaaach, you lose all credibility and that’s when I stopped reading his through crap analysis. I predict this will end very very badly for Hindenburg. It's not Hidenburg. It's the backers. Which I suspect includes some of Adani's rivals in India. Under_Score 1
Chakdephatte Posted January 29, 2023 Posted January 29, 2023 It's well known before Hindenburg's report. Even Sucheta Dalal commented about it once. Under_Score 1
Recommended Posts