Will American hegemony ever end ?

[cowboysfan]

7 hours ago, bharathh said:

IMO, the west went crazy with Russophobia when they should have been working with them to take down China. That was their undoing. They should have tried to include Russia into NATO vs China. Not sure why they lose their minds when it comes to Russia. Russia is nowhere the power it was as the Soviet Union - and could never have reached any level to challenge the west. 

are you kidding? Putin has said publicly that he wants to bring the old soviet union back.The Russians are no better than chinese,pretty despicable people bent on genocide and rape all for more land wen they are the biggest country in the world.I would rather be under a American hegemony than a Chinese and russian hegemony.

[sandeep]

12 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

US has a significant disadvantage to India & China - manpower, which is ultimately, the biggest asset of an industrial/post industrial nation

Manpower can easily be imported - assimilating it successfully isn't easy - but US has been doing for a 100+ years.  Others like China/Japan have zero hope of doing it.  You're really missing some basic points....

[sandeep]

12 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

US won't cede its position, it will be forced to concede it, as dollar hegemony will no longer be seen as fait accompli by other nations. 

its easy to talk about "ending dollar hegemony" - much more difficult to implement it.  The pound was the global currency a 100 years ago and post WW2, Britain was an economic basket case.  Until the late 1990s, the pound still managed to hold on to its primacy inspite of being a geopolitical toothless vassal.  

 

The dollar hegemony is not going anywhere for 40+ years.  And that's if current efforts are sustained and somehow magically ramped up.  

 

The only way the dollar hegemony 'breaks' if there is a global economic collapse - and that is in no country's interest.  So the global financial system is stuck with the status quo, whether folks like it or not.  

[BacktoCricaddict]

12 hours ago, Mariyam said:

In these 2 decades, China and India have done a lot of catching up, by simply focusing on bettering the lot of their own people.

 

Right from the USA's playbook in the 19th century.

 

 

Great post, but the bold-faced part would be better edited to: "bettering the lot of some of their own people." It wasn't until the civil rights movement and the following decades that the nation's successes trickled down a bit to the highly marginalized/suppressed African-American population. And even that process is still incomplete.  

 

[BacktoCricaddict]

1 hour ago, cowboysfan said:

are you kidding? Putin has said publicly that he wants to bring the old soviet union back.The Russians are no better than chinese,pretty despicable people bent on genocide and rape all for more land wen they are the biggest country in the world.I would rather be under a American hegemony than a Chinese and russian hegemony.

Ideally, we'd be better off in a multi-polar world with no hegemony. That the world move in one direction towards the betterment of all peoples regardless of borders and social constructs like race/ethnicity. But then again, I realize it will never happen.

[sandeep]

12 hours ago, Mariyam said:

The USA spent the better part of two decades from 2001- ~2021, engaged in vague wars in the Middle East and Central Asia where they had no clear cut objectives.

A lot of resources were lost in that period. The country is not better off as a result. Neither are they safer. 

The standing of the US has taken a hit and other nations are no longer as pliant to the American will as they were before. Case in point, nations of Latin America.

Recently, the US paid what was no short of a ransom to the Iranian government for the release of a few prisoners. 

In these 2 decades, China and India have done a lot of catching up, by simply focusing on bettering the lot of their own people. Right from the USA's playbook in the 19th century.

 

While the US may still continue to be a military and economic superpower, it just can't influence the world it used to even 20-30 years ago. The decline of US hegemony may be slow, but we are living through it.

Decline yes -  but when a 800 pound gorilla loses 100 pounds, or even 200  doesn't mean that the 150 pound chimp can displace it.  

[ravishingravi]

1 hour ago, cowboysfan said:

are you kidding? Putin has said publicly that he wants to bring the old soviet union back.The Russians are no better than chinese,pretty despicable people bent on genocide and rape all for more land wen they are the biggest country in the world.I would rather be under a American hegemony than a Chinese and russian hegemony.

 

At some point these hyper adjectives for some chosen folks becomes rather innocuous. We have somehow ensured that one by one one sane people tend to smirk when one says secular, genocide, genocidal maniac, racist etc etc. I mean Modi is also doing genocide apparently in India. Or Rana Ayyub aunty put in nuanced terms, muslims are undergoing almost a genocide. What post trump, covid, Ukraine and Canada situation have confirmed is that these words mean nothing anymore. Apparently Obama with max drone attacks with innocent victims is not genocidal maniac. Nor is Hillary 

 

At some point when one is unable to go step by step and corrobrate wth facts and events and focusses on the indivudal, one or two the things are possible. 1) Individual grew on the same establishment media and talking points and genuinely believes what has been fed. 2) Individual is unable to really present and articulate his / her case. 3) Individual is being disingenuous as we so clearly see now with all the rule based order of Amreeka, no one wants to present any evidence.

 

All this talk but establishment folks keep avoiding the questions. Why did Putin invade Crimea first and now why is he going after Ukraine ? Simple questions but required coherent understanding of facts and chronology of events. Putin is as much an a@@hole as any dictator trying to protect his position..

Edited October 5, 2023 by ravishingravi

[cowboysfan]

Just now, ravishingravi said:

 

At some point these hyper adjectives for some chosen folks becomes rather innocuous. We have somehow ensured that one by one one sane people tend to smirk when one says secular, genocide, genocidal maniac, racist etc etc. I mean Modi is also doing genocide apparently in India. Or Rana Ayyub aunty put in nuanced terms, muslims are undergoing almost a genocide. What post trump, covid, Ukraine and Canada situation have confirmed is that these words mean nothing anymore.

 

At some point when one is unable to go step by step and corrobrate wth facts and events and focusses on the indivudal, one or two the things are possible. 1) Individual grew on the same establishment media and talking points. 2) Individual is unable to really present and articulate his / her case. 3) Individual is being disingenuous as we so clearly see now with all the rule based order of Amreeka, no one wants to present any evidence.

 

All this talk but establishment folks keep avoiding the questions. Why did Putin invade Crimea first and now why is he going after Ukraine ? Simple questions but required coherent understanding of facts and chronology of events. Putin is as much an a@@hole as any dictator trying to protect his position.

 

the same can be said on the type of media you are following.do you also dispute the brutality of Russians in Ukraine too? heck the Russians dont care about their own people,they certainly dont care about ordinary Ukrainians.If Ukraine lose this war they will lose it all.you are bringing Modi up and not me,that shows your thinking and defensiveness.

[rangeelaraja]

1 hour ago, sandeep said:

its easy to talk about "ending dollar hegemony" - much more difficult to implement it.  The pound was the global currency a 100 years ago and post WW2, Britain was an economic basket case.  Until the late 1990s, the pound still managed to hold on to its primacy inspite of being a geopolitical toothless vassal.  

 

The dollar hegemony is not going anywhere for 40+ years.  And that's if current efforts are sustained and somehow magically ramped up.  

 

The only way the dollar hegemony 'breaks' if there is a global economic collapse - and that is in no country's interest.  So the global financial system is stuck with the status quo, whether folks like it or not.  

 

Thats not true at all and almost opposite of the reality. The USD is the most vulnerable aspect of the US economy.

 

40+ years of USD hegemony ? You've gotta be kidding.

 

There is a  heavy price to pay for recklessly printing the dollar for decades on end, issuing limitless external debt to fuel a debt based consumption economy. 

 

US has come perilously close to a default on many occasions the last one being in June this year, further raising the debt cieling.

 

This is like postponing a default for a bigger default in the future...kicking the can down the road.

 

1) What happens if there is a default - Over 60 % of the US dollar ever printed lies outside the US - USD will lose credibility and there will be a massive sell off triggering a collapase.

 

2) What happens if there is no default and endless raising the debt cieling - issuing more debt to service interest payments on existing debt - this will end at some point in one of 2 ways - US dries out the the tap for internal lending leading to a massive domestic recession or 1) happens.

 

There is strong chance that what is in bold happens ( which in itself will not be good for the USD)

 

 

Already many countries including - Russia, China, Middle East countries, India ..etc...have started doing their bilateral trading in local currencies - to work around the dollar fearing its uncertain future.

 

Thats a massive chunk of the global trade economy.

 

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by rangeelaraja

[Muloghonto]

1 hour ago, sandeep said:

Manpower can easily be imported - assimilating it successfully isn't easy - but US has been doing for a 100+ years.  Others like China/Japan have zero hope of doing it.  You're really missing some basic points....

Imported or not, China & India will always continue to have a manpower advantage over a nation thats less than a quarter of its population. 

1 hour ago, sandeep said:

its easy to talk about "ending dollar hegemony" - much more difficult to implement it.  The pound was the global currency a 100 years ago and post WW2, Britain was an economic basket case.  Until the late 1990s, the pound still managed to hold on to its primacy inspite of being a geopolitical toothless vassal.  

 

The dollar hegemony is not going anywhere for 40+ years.  And that's if current efforts are sustained and somehow magically ramped up.  

 

The only way the dollar hegemony 'breaks' if there is a global economic collapse - and that is in no country's interest.  So the global financial system is stuck with the status quo, whether folks like it or not.  

 

I dont understand your point- what primacy did the pound hold on to, when it got replaced by the USD as the global trade & reserve currency in the 1940s ? The hegemonies of the Guilder & GBP ended rather suddenly. I dont see why that won't be the case with USA. 

1 hour ago, sandeep said:

Decline yes -  but when a 800 pound gorilla loses 100 pounds, or even 200  doesn't mean that the 150 pound chimp can displace it.  

 

USA wont be displaced by Canada. It will be displaced by China, India, Russia & **MAYBE** Brazil. 

 

[rangeelaraja]

18 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

Imported or not, China & India will always continue to have a manpower advantage over a nation thats less than a quarter of its population. 

USA wont be displaced by Canada. It will be displaced by China, India, Russia & **MAYBE** Brazil. 

 

 

 

China's manpower advantage is history - they have a serious demographic disadvantage because of the most rapidly aging population and an imminent population decline.

 

Their birth rates are on a stubborn decline according to their own internal assessments - which means the problem is far worse.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/05/closure-of-maternity-wards-fuels-chinese-debate-over-population-decline#:~:text=China's birthrate fell to a,of mass famine in China.

 

USD will severely lose its eminence...that doesn't mean US will lose its pole position.  US will continue to remain numero UNO in an increasingly multipolar world.  Nobody  comes close to tech innovation like the US....not even close.

 

Brazil has been a middle income economy for 3 decades now -they don't have any edge over lets say Indonesia which is of similar population, nor are they expected to dominate tech. They will always remain a middle power unless a miracle occurs there.

 

China is on a definite decline because of demographics, their one track growth model running its course on extraordinary domestic debt. They are one war away with Taiwan from spiraling quickly - pitted against the combined West, Japan, South Korea and maybe India.

 

Russia will always remain extremely powerful because of limitless natural resources and its vast land mass. If they mend relations with Europe and settle the security aspect - they can become filthy rich trading with Europe.

 

India by 2050 will easily be a very powerful pole all by itself. 

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by rangeelaraja

[Muloghonto]

23 minutes ago, rangeelaraja said:

 

 

China's manpower advantage is history - they have a serious demographic disadvantage because of the most rapidly aging population and an imminent population decline.

 

Their birth rates are on a stubborn decline according to their own internal assessments - which means the problem is far worse.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/05/closure-of-maternity-wards-fuels-chinese-debate-over-population-decline#:~:text=China's birthrate fell to a,of mass famine in China.

 

USD will severely lose its eminence...that doesn't mean US will lose its pole position.  US will continue to remain numero UNO in an increasingly multipolar world.  Nobody  comes close to tech innovation like the US....not even close.

 

Brazil has been a middle income economy for 3 decades now -they don't have any edge over lets say Indonesia which is of similar population, nor are they expected to dominate tech. They will always remain a middle power unless a miracle occurs there.

 

China is on a definite decline because of demographics, their one track growth model running its course on extraordinary domestic debt. They are one war away with Taiwan from spiraling quickly - pitted against the combined West, Japan, South Korea and maybe India.

 

Russia will always remain extremely powerful because of limitless natural resources and its vast land mass. If they mend relations with Europe and settle the security aspect - they can become filthy rich trading with Europe.

 

India by 2050 will easily be a very powerful pole all by itself. 

 

1. China declining from 1.4 billion still yeilds a far greater workforce than a 350 mil population. 

2. If USD loses hegemony, US pulls a 'mega greece collapse' and loses its pole position. That is definite. Only way US doesnt lose pole position is if USD doesnt collapse. 

 

[rangeelaraja]

14 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

1. China declining from 1.4 billion still yeilds a far greater workforce than a 350 mil population. 

 

 

 

That is not correct. You check for projections in the workforce and workforce productivity -  not raw population numbers 

 

1) China's workforce is on a decline since 2015. See below. This is historical data - the decline in expected workforce is expected to be steep in China's case because of worsening demographics.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/282134/china-labor-force/

 

2) US workforce has been steady/rising.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/191750/civilian-labor-force-in-the-us-since-1990/

 

 

3) You combine 1) and 2) with the fact that US per capita work force is  6 times more productive than China  ( 80K GDP vs 13K GDP ) ....it means ...China has peaked and the differential is just going to increase from here, with China having no chance.

Edited October 5, 2023 by rangeelaraja

[Muloghonto]

12 minutes ago, rangeelaraja said:

 

That is not correct. You check for projections in the workforce and workforce productivity -  not raw population numbers 

 

1) China's workforce is on a decline since 2015. See below. This is historical data - the decline in expected workforce is expected to be steep in China's case because of worsening demographics.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/282134/china-labor-force/

 

2) US workforce has been steady/rising.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/191750/civilian-labor-force-in-the-us-since-1990/

 

 

3) You combine 1) and 2) with the fact that US per capita work force is  6 times more productive than China  ( 80K GDP vs 13K GDP ) ....it means ...China has peaked and the differential is just going to increase from here, with China having no chance.

 

1. US workforce isnt six times more productive than Chinese, its about 3 times. 

2. Chinese productivity is rising, US productivity is more or less stagnant

3. China will maintain manpower advantage over USA for pretty much indefinitely. 

 

China hasn't peaked in terms of productivity. Its USA that has. 

 

[rangeelaraja]

12 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

 

1. US workforce isnt six times more productive than Chinese, its about 3 times. 

2. Chinese productivity is rising, US productivity is more or less stagnant

3. China will maintain manpower advantage over USA for pretty much indefinitely. 

 

China hasn't peaked in terms of productivity. Its USA that has. 

 

 

Again you are wrong on all the accounts above. 
 

I don’t throw numbers without verification.

It’s 2019 China hasn’t done too well since then. But what’s the ratio of 73 in hourly PPP terms to 11.7 ?  
 

what’s  your source of “ 3times “ ? 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_labour_productivity

 

Per Capita Productivity is rising even in the US. For China the growth is on a massive decline. 
 

 

[Muloghonto]

4 minutes ago, rangeelaraja said:

 

Again you are wrong on all the accounts above. 
 

I don’t throw numbers without verification.

It’s 2019 China hasn’t done too well since then. But what’s the ratio of 73 in hourly PPP terms to 11.7 ?  
 

what’s  your source of “ 3times “ ? 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_labour_productivity

 

Per Capita Productivity is rising even in the US. For China the growth is on a massive decline. 
 

 

 

3 times would be PPP of China vs USA IIRC. 

Either way, Chinese productivity is improving- its still not a fully developed nation. US productivity, like western productivity, is stagnant. Either way, China will never be at a manpower disadvantage over the US, especially given that china is a significantly bigger industrial nation than USA is. 

 

[BacktoCricaddict]

  @Muloghonto @ravishingravi @sandeep @rangeelaraja @gattaca

 

Which of you ICFers wrote this article :-)?

Quote

For the past 30 years, America has been playing a game of whack-a-mole, trying desperately to beat back any threats to its unipolar hegemony. But if recent reports are any indication, that game may soon be coming to a close. Whether or not that ending is a bad thing depends entirely on how American leaders proceed.

The announcement that BRICS—the loose alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, an answer of sorts to the G7—are about to expand has produced much teeth gnashing. The addition of Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Argentina has been portrayed by some as the end of American and Western hegemony. Brazil’s president declared that the world “will no longer be the same.” French President Emmanuel Macron lamented that the expansion was a threat to the Western order.

 

To be clear, the states being added to BRICS are no small fish: Saudi Arabia has long been a key American partner, and Iran has long been a serious American enemy. That they are both joining together in one organization is noteworthy. Likewise, Argentina’s addition may indicate the bloc is strengthening in South America. And there are many nations who are willing to join, from Indonesia to Algeria to Venezuela.

But there are many reasons to resist any teeth gnashing.

 

Read on: 

 

https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2023/10/05/the_end_of_hegemony_is_not_the_end_of_america_984034.html

 

 

[coffee_rules]

You ask Democrats they will say it’s not true. All non-Dems claim that the dominance is over.  I am paying Costco 10 times more that what I was paying last year, that’s all is concerning, warald ki chinta mat karo! 

[Muloghonto]

9 hours ago, cowboysfan said:

are you kidding? Putin has said publicly that he wants to bring the old soviet union back.The Russians are no better than chinese,pretty despicable people bent on genocide and rape all for more land wen they are the biggest country in the world.I would rather be under a American hegemony than a Chinese and russian hegemony.

Nowhere has Putin said that. Putin has said that breakup of USSR was a bad idea. That isn't the same as saying 'i wanna bring it back'. 

The russians are far better than the yankees and i see no reason to the statement that yankee hegemony is better, when they are the biggest killer of innocents on the planet currently in the first place.

 

[ravishingravi]

Rules based order is nothing but my way or high way. 

 

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1710018394806993319?t=0qWhXsYre8RirBGqfiX7cw&s=19