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Developed Countries in deep trouble

ravishingravi

By ravishingravi
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ravishingravi Grand Master

ravishingravi

Posted
Posted (edited)

Been looking at developed markets and countries closely for a bit. Doesn't look good at all. US, UK, France, Germany, Japan and Canada. All looking down the barrell. 

 

1) GDP slowing down. In some cases in Europe it's now more than 6 quarters of slowdown. 

 

2) Tariffs have basically stalled all new investments. Trade volumes reducing. 

 

3) Fiscal situation getting untenable across the board. Developed countries don't seem to be in position to fund the pension liabilities with demographic decline, high govt spending ( 60% in France Vs 10% in India as % of gdp ). 

 

4) Migrant situation has gone out of hand in Europe especially which combined with civil unrest due to migration will lead to internal conflicts. 

 

5) War machine is pumping big time. I can see major escalations in coming months as Govt"s will look for an external conflict to distract the masses. 

 

6) Haven't even started with productivity impacts from AI. 

 

7) Politically all countries look shaky except Poland to some extent. See that tilt will happen further towards right wing populism. 

 

Overall looks like we are heading for the stuff in 2026. India will also experience slowdown but fundamentals look okay for now. 

Edited by ravishingravi
ravishingravi Grand Master

ravishingravi

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, gattaca said:

Recession around the corner. It is is going to be a bad one. AI will make it worse.

 

We all presumed AI will make it worse through replacement. But apparently it will make it worse due to over investments and lack of ROI aka Dotcom bubble.

Edited by ravishingravi
kepler37b Grand Master

kepler37b

Posted
Posted
On 9/3/2025 at 7:53 AM, ravishingravi said:

Been looking at developed markets and countries closely for a bit. Doesn't look good at all. US, UK, France, Germany, Japan and Canada. All looking down the barrell. 

 

1) GDP slowing down. In some cases in Europe it's now more than 6 quarters of slowdown. 

 

2) Tariffs have basically stalled all new investments. Trade volumes reducing. 

 

3) Fiscal situation getting untenable across the board. Developed countries don't seem to be in position to fund the pension liabilities with demographic decline, high govt spending ( 60% in France Vs 10% in India as % of gdp ). 

 

4) Migrant situation has gone out of hand in Europe especially which combined with civil unrest due to migration will lead to internal conflicts. 

 

5) War machine is pumping big time. I can see major escalations in coming months as Govt"s will look for an external conflict to distract the masses. 

 

6) Haven't even started with productivity impacts from AI. 

 

7) Politically all countries look shaky except Poland to some extent. See that tilt will happen further towards right wing populism. 

 

Overall looks like we are heading for the stuff in 2026. India will also experience slowdown but fundamentals look okay for now. 

Civilizations rise and fall like cycles.  West will go down and the center of influence will shift towards east more and more.

kepler37b Grand Master

kepler37b

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, coffee_rules said:

You guys are nothing in front of this guy on Geo-politics and weather! Top this analysis 

 

 

 

The lesson: Even if you speak bull-**** say it with confidence :adore::adore:. Reminds me of many of my colleagues.

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

Posted
Posted

I think the debt situation is the worst.

 

Median age is 40+ in these countries.

 

Germany only one who can launch fiscal stimulus.

 

Usa is same boat if not for reserve currency status of usd.

 

Too many crisises have clustered together. From a uk pov 2008-09 and covid-19 were barely 10 years apart. Uk gov debt to gdp was like 40% in 2007. Jumped to 90% bailing out banks and pumping money. Then fell to around 80% before rising to 96% due to covid.

 

There is no fiscal firepower left in tank for next crisis.

 

 

 

 

ravishingravi Grand Master

ravishingravi

Posted
  • Author
Posted
4 hours ago, G_B_ said:

I think the debt situation is the worst.

 

Median age is 40+ in these countries.

 

Germany only one who can launch fiscal stimulus.

 

Usa is same boat if not for reserve currency status of usd.

 

Too many crisises have clustered together. From a uk pov 2008-09 and covid-19 were barely 10 years apart. Uk gov debt to gdp was like 40% in 2007. Jumped to 90% bailing out banks and pumping money. Then fell to around 80% before rising to 96% due to covid.

 

There is no fiscal firepower left in tank for next crisis.

 

 

 

 

 

Indeed which makes me deadly sure that we are going for a war. Western model to maintain status will be to create chaos. And they will play this game in developing markets. There is just no other way. 

MechEng Veteran

MechEng

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

 

Indeed which makes me deadly sure that we are going for a war. Western model to maintain status will be to create chaos. And they will play this game in developing markets. There is just no other way. 

 

If India-US relations don't improve with India moving away from petro dollar, watch out for proxy terror attack on Jamnagar refinery.

jf1gp_1 Grand Master

jf1gp_1

Posted
Posted

That is why India and China need to have peace, without being best of friends. Lets protect our borders, lets be on good talking terms and we are set for next 200 years. 

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