Predictions for the 2014 General Elections in India

[Crookbond]

Every prediction says BJP is going to do well in UP ' date=' IS this because of Modi/Shah effect or just fake stats :hmmmm2:[/quote'] http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/bjp-up-but-ulta-pradesh-is-tricky/article4952479.ece?homepage=true

[BeautifulGame]

For Tamilnadu at present i would say ADMK - 20-25 DMK - 15-20 But think situations are likely to change in favor of DMK more and more as election nears. Congress dont have the vote base to win a single seat in TN if they are contesting alone.Will win 3-5 seats probably if they go in along with DMK As for BJP they would be lucky if they can find candidates for all the seat.Getting deposits in any of them will only be dream And Pondycherry will be a straight shootout btw DMK and Congress.

[saneindian]

Play the prediction game with this amazing site http://www.indiavotes.com/tools/swing_impact/party/pc/143/15/27 As of now my estimates BJP - 170-175 (J&K 2, Punjab 3, Haryana 2, Delhi 4, Uttarakhand 3, Himachal 2, Rajasthan 18, MP 23, Chattisgarh 10, UP 30, Bihar 15, Jharkhand 7, Gujrat 21, Maharashtra 15, Goa 2, Karnataka 7, Andhra 2, West Bengal 2, Orissa 1, Assam 5 and a couple from rest of the places) BJP Supporting parties - 20-25 SAD 7, HJC 1, SS 12, AGP 2 Congress - 125-130 J&K 2, Punjab 3, Haryana 6, Delhi 3, UK 1, Himachal 2, Rajasthan 7, MP 6, C'garh 3, UP 5, Bihar 2, J'kand 4, Gujrat 5, Maharashtra 13, Kar 18, Andhra 10, TN 2, WB 6, Orisaa 2, Assam 6, Kerala 7, rest of the states - 10 Congress supporting parties - 40-45 DMK 6, RJD 6, LJP 1, NCP 10, NC 2, BSP 15 Other parties - 175+ Left 30, TMC 20, AIADMK 25, SP 25, BJD 15, TDP 10, YSRC 12, TRS 8, JDU 15 Key states for Congress - Rajasthan , UP and AP which gave it 20+21+33 = 75 seats. Right now major losses expected with 7+5+10= 22 seats. Improved position in Karnataka will be some relief though. Zperhaos their aim would be to somehow reach 140-145 and limit the BJP to 150-155 For BJP - Rajasthan and the cow belt are the main focus states Bihar, Jharkhand, UP and Uttarakhand ) with total 25+40+14+80+5- 165 seats. Last time it won 5+12+8+10+0 -35 seats, needs to push it upto 75-80 seats for it to go near total 175+. Looks doable with Raj 18-20, Bihar 15-17, UP 30-35, UK 3-4 and Jharkhand 8-9 seats

[pragya20]

What you think What you think about our future government..Who will win the next upcoming elections...

[Detonator]

@OP Congress would get 4-5 seats alloted to them. And only Pee Chidambaram will win. May be another one. ADMK will win min. 25 seats.

[adi B]

AIDKM will get 25 atm,DMK 10-15 but pre poll alliance will change the situation drastically

[South_Paw]

In Tamil Nadu, with the Cauvery issue currently being swept under the carpet due to the heavy monsoon and wind electricity solving the power crisis in the state temporarily, the current situation may be yeild something like AIADMK - 27, DMK + Cong - 8, CPM + Others - 4. But as said, the pre-poll situations and alliances will have a drastic impact in TN. When it comes to Pondicherry, Congress is going to sh!t there with the legendary Narayanasamy. DMK and AIDMK has never and would never have anything there. Anyone who is going to be contesting on behalf of the NR Congress will make a clean sweap.

[dial_100]

I think BJP will cross 150, even with Advani/Sushma as PM. With Modi I feel they may touch 170+. Even 2% vote swing is big enough. But if they find more new voters then difference could be substantial and I think 170+ is only possible if they can swing the voters.

[adi B]

^170-180 i think,lets see what happens,a lot can change with pre election alliances,policies,scams etc

[BeautifulGame]

@OP Congress would get 4-5 seats alloted to them. And only Pee Chidambaram will win. May be another one. ADMK will win min. 25 seats.

He may win if he changes constituency.Rumors r already that he wants to contest in Pondycherry(Always safe seat for congress) . But voters in Karaikudi / Sivagangai absolutely pissed of by him.And everyone knows he needed some underhand tactics during counting to win even last time. And they will atleast get 8-10 seats if DMK get alliance with them.They got 15 seats last time.Even in 2004 when every one was in DMK coalition Congress still contested in 10 seats

[King Tendulkar]

One big mess is the prediction:--D Looks modi has certainly boosted BJP votes and they will be largest party in india but will noy mean they come to power http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Congress-clear-loser-but-BJP-far-from-victory-opinion-poll-says/articleshow/21468590.cms

[ravishingravi]

BJP not coming to power. But emerging as single largest party is important also. It sends a strong message. Hung assembly on the cards.

[King Tendulkar]

Modi will boost BJP actual votes. But flip side is that will make it more difficult to get coalition as other parties worried about their muslim votes

[ravishingravi]

Amartya Sen and the ayatollahs of secularism – part 3 "Dr. Amartya Sen compels me to return to a subject India should have long buried: secularism. Dr. Sen’s definition of secularism is as misty-eyed as that purveyed increasingly by secular liberals who – in the classical sense of those terms – are neither. As I wrote in The Ayatollahs of secularism - part 2, Indians six decades ago had to make a choice between a theocratic Pakistan and a secular India: “On a cool spring day in 1950 at a California college campus, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, a tall, angular man of 22, was in a garrulous mood. He told my father: ‘Ah, Pakistan. See what we will do with my wonderful new country.’ My father, like young Bhutto, a student at the University of California, Berkeley, was unimpressed. ‘A country founded on theocracy,’ he told Bhutto, ‘will never work.’ Bhutto walked away in a huff.” Sixty-three years later, has India lived up to its secular promise? The short answer: yes. The larger question: why is India secular? The answer: because the majority community is intrinsically secular. If it wasn’t, India would have been, in Shashi Tharoor’s words, a “Hindu Pakistan”: the kind Bhutto would have understood. So what is Amartya Sen’s definition of secularism? In his 2005 book, The Argumentative Indian, Dr. Sen devoted 23 pages to explaining his views on secularism – without coming to a definitive conclusion. This is what he wrote in one passage: “Secularism in the political – as opposed to ecclesiastical – sense requires the separation of the state from any particular religious order. This can be interpreted in at least two different ways. The first view argues that secularism demands that the state be equidistant from all religions – refusing to take sides and having a neutral attitude towards them. The second – more severe – view insists that the state must not have any relation at all with any religion. The equidistance must take the form, then, of being altogether removed from each. “In both interpretations, secularism goes against giving any religion a privileged position in the activities of the state. In the broader interpretation (the first view), however there is no demand that the state must stay clear of any association with any religious matter whatsoever. Rather what is needed is to make sure that in so far as the state has to deal with different religions and members of different religious communities, there must be a basic symmetry of treatment.” Symmetry of treatment is crucial: What does symmetry imply? Clearly, equality for all, special privileges on the basis of religion to none. That is not Dr. Sen’s conclusion at the end of his 23-page chapter on secularism. And it is certainly not the secularism that – for example – the Congress practises today. In an interview with The Economic Times, on July 22, 2013, Dr. Sen said he would like a “secular person to be prime minister” and added: “I would not like to see Narendra Modi as India’s prime minister and I’m speaking as a citizen of India.” Dr. Sen, on being probed further, clarified why not: “(He) generates concern and fear on the part of minorities.” But surely it is parties which preach secularism but practise an insidious form of communal separateness which feed a false fear among Muslim voters? Such “secular” parties don’t care for Muslims. They care for Muslim votes. If they had “real concern” for Muslims – a key quality in a prime minister according to Dr. Sen – Muslims would not be as poor, as deprived, as backward, as alienated and as stigmatised as they are today. After 54 years of Congress governments, each preaching secularism but practising the opposite, the appalling state of Muslims is a telling indictment of faux-secular governance. * * * Dr. Sen is surprisingly coy about Rahul Gandhi. When The Economic Times asked him what he thought of Rahul, Dr. Sen parried the question instead of taking it head on as would be expected of an independent mind. Here’s what he said: “I haven’t assessed him in that way. I know him as a different figure (not a politician). I know him as a likeable young man who was a student in Trinity College (Cambridge). We have met when I was Master of Trinity. We spent a pleasant day together. I did ask him then if he was interested in politics or not. At that time he wasn’t. However, I haven’t assessed him as a politician or a potential prime minister.” That’s an extraordinary answer. Rahul, the Congress vice-president, has been in electoral politics for over nine years and Dr. Sen, so knowledgeable and outspoken otherwise about Indian politics and economics, hasn’t “assessed him” yet as a politician or a potential prime minister? Surely, Rahul deserves more of Dr. Sen’s attention. Dr. Sen’s kerfuffle with Professors Jagdish Bhagwati and Arvind Panagariya of Columbia University over growth vs. inclusion is meanwhile a red herring. Good governance is the real answer: both economic growth and inclusion are intrinsic to it. The real issue is entitlement vs. empowerment. Profs Bhagwati and Panagariya rightly argue that economic growth, allied with welfare schemes which build productive capital assets (rather than the NAC-Sen-Dreze formula of handouts which create dependencies) is the most efficient development model for India. Who can best create that model? Certainly not those who advocate a policy of entitlement with its attendant fiscal profligacy that has so severely damaged India’s economy. " http://blogs.economictimes.indiatime...ularism-part-3

[Detonator]

He may win if he changes constituency.Rumors r already that he wants to contest in Pondycherry(Always safe seat for congress) . But voters in Karaikudi / Sivagangai absolutely pissed of by him.And everyone knows he needed some underhand tactics during counting to win even last time.

Not just in his constituency, the whole India knew how he won last time. I don't think congress will take a risk of allowing him to lose. They will make sure he wins comfortably this time. If he fails to win, then that means we won't be seeing him again.

And they will atleast get 8-10 seats if DMK get alliance with them.They got 15 seats last time.Even in 2004 when every one was in DMK coalition Congress still contested in 10 seats

I was saying that based on this. A possible coalition with DMK, DMDK, PMK and Congress will be like, 24 for DMK, 6 for DMDK, 5 each for Congress and PMK. I may be wrong, but I don't think congress will get 10 seats this time after facing heavy loss last time.

NEW DELHI: Congress is exploring a grand alliance in Tamil Nadu for the 2014 LokSabha polls. After helping DMK revive a working relationship with it — by voting for Karunanidhi's daughter Kanimozhi in the RS polls last month — Congress leaders are trying to stitch an alliance that would also include DMDK of Capt Vijayakant and PMK of Dr S Ramdoss. A Congress leader said its emissaries are in touch with leaders of DMDK and PMK. The efforts gained pace after Tamil Nadu CM J Jayalalithaa's hostile break-up with DMDK and PMK. The breakoff saw Jaya poaching on half a dozen DMDK MLAs and threatening to grab more. An equally inimical break-up with PMK happened after the state police arrested its chief S Ramdoss in connection with the Vaniyar-Dalit clashes. AICC has ensured "that line of communication with Vijayakant is open" despite turning down his request and voting for Kanimozhi in RS polls, the leader said. "Once again, DMK, PMK, DMDK and Congress have come to share a common interest in Tamil politics. That shared interest is against the politics of Jayalalithaa. Hopefully, we will come closer ahead of Lok Sabha polls," the leader added. Despite behind-the-scene moves, Vijayakant and Ramdoss have maintained that their respective parties would fight the next Lok Sabha polls alone. Even the DMK leadership prefers to maintain that Congress' vote for Kanimozhi was not part of an alliance revival plan. The DMK-Congress-PMK-Left pact won all 39 LS seats in 2004, and DMK-Congress alliance won 26 seats in 2009. In the last assembly polls, the AIADMK-DMDK-PMKLeft pact routed the DMK-Congress combine. DMK has 22% vote share against AIADMK's 27.5%, but the outcome is determined by the alliance of the two rivals. Congress has 6-8% votes, DMDK 10% and PMK 4%. AIADMK is aligned with Left though Jaya maintains a cordial relationship with Narendra Modi. Vaiko's MDMK is reportedly ready to join the AIADMK front.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/congress-explores-grand-tamil-nadu-alliance-with-dmdk-and-pmk/articleshow/21474836.cms

[adi B]

times now showed that prediction of nda getting 150 odd seats,highly wrong i say bcoz generally the voting %ages increases for the major national parties in GE compared to SE in comparison with regional party

[someone]

Modi will boost BJP actual votes. But flip side is that will make it more difficult to get coalition as other parties worried about their muslim votes

On the flip side, every parties will now need to think about other communities other than Muslims. There is already good indicators with this new trend like people having to prove that they are not anti-Hindu.

[diga]

The BJP needs to double-down on projecting Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate, the Congress will have no moral claim to the next government and a messy coalition at the center would be a “dog’s breakfastâ€, according to a panel that analysed the findings of a CNN-IBN/Hindu poll. The panel members were Yogendra Yadav, senior fellow at the Center for Study of Developing Studies, Journalist Swapan Dasgupta, Professor Ramachandra Guha, author of India after Gandhi, Surjit Bhalla, and the head of Oxus Investments, Siddarth Varadarajan, the editor of the Hindu, and Sandeep Shastri, the Vice Chancellor of Jain University in Bangalore. The poll data showed the NDA emerging as the biggest single group with 172 to 180 seats, while the UPA would get 149-157. But that leaves the other regional parties with over 200 seats, making them a potentially divisive factor when it comes to forming the government. If these are the results in 2014, then it is a complete dog’s breakfast,†Dasgupta said. “It is going to be 1996 and worse. It will be two or three years of inherent stability because no one wants an election.†The panelists all agreed that it would be easier for the UPA to form alliances than it would the NDA, primarily because of the secularism card, but questioned the legitimacy of another term for the current government. “Clearly with these numbers, the UPA does not have a moral or any other right to claim the government,†Guha said. For the BJP, the elevation of Modi was seen as an impediment to their being able to secure a large coalition. The loss of the Nitish Kumar in Bihar being one example of the negative side of Modi as the party’s defacto leader. That’s the reason Dasgupta felt the BJP needed to get close to 200 seats if it wanted to form the government at the Centre. At the same time, he felt Modi was the BJP’s trump card because Modi’s approval ratings outstrip those of the party. “The BJP has to go with Narendra Modi and it has to go far more,†Dasgupta said. “I think the tentativeness cannot be there. Of course that is a risk. But you have got the momentum. The social segment you are gaining. Go for broke. If you go broke, even you stop a little short, you would have created the momentum.†The possibility of a so-called Third Front emerging was also discounted, in part because the largest individual parties in such a group would have around 25 to 30 seats, raising questions about the limited size of their support. “For anything like a Third Front, you needed a JD or a Left front,†Yadav said. “In the absence of any one of them, in the absence of personality, in the absence of an issue, I don’t see a Third Front coming together. Or if it comes, I don’t see it being accepted.†The big question for both the major parties, then, was the question of leadership. The polls showed 19 percent favoured Modi as the next Prime Minister while 12 percent picked Rahul Gandhi, but that means 69 percent of those polls either favoured someone else, or hadn’t made up their minds. However, in a straight head to head battle, there was little difference between Modi and Rahul, with the former being picked by 33 percent of respondents and the latter by 31 percent. There was a stark regional divide though, with South India picking Rahul by 37 percent to 17 percent but Modi ahead by 4 to 10 percent in the rest of the country. “It is clear Rahul Gandhi suffers from never having done a job. Not just a political job, but any job,†Guha said.:hysterical: According to Guha, support for Modi in the South was weak because he does not make speeches in English, while Dasgupta felt the preference for Rahul reflected the BJP’s lack of presence in the South. All the panelists felt that the BJP stood to benefit if they could turn the election into more of a presidential election – a straight contest between Modi and Rahul. “It is in the BJP’s interest to cast this election in presidential terms because Modi is more popular than Rahul,†Varadarajan said. Bhalla, for one, felt this was already happening. “I do believe most people will see this election as a presidential election – across India. It is being seen increasing . people are talking personalities. Something I have not seen to this extent. “I think this is a big change. I think you better get used to it, and anticipate it.†Bhalla felt that Rahul is genuinely ambivalent about becoming Prime Minister and therefore the Congress should seek to nominate someone who has shown a hunger for the job and someone who has shown leadership. He also felt the BJP should speak with one voice concentrate on the issues that they poll strongly – economy and good governance. “If the BJP focuses on Hindutva, they will collapse,†he said. As for Manmohan Singh, the polls showed that he was still liked by over 60 percent of the respondents. But the general perception was that he had allowed corruption to take place around him and had little control over what has happening. Some blamed the dual power centres of the Congress, saying Mammohan could not be blamed for the Sonia Gandhi factor, but Guha was not so forgiving. “He [Manmohan] has been a timid, time-serving status-quo-ist Prime Minister. “You cannot blame Sonia Gandhi for that.†While all the panelists were concerned about the growing Federalism of India, they all conceded that that the situation was not going to change because India was too diverse to have just two parties represent the entirety of the country. “The new centre of Indian politics is not the centre but the states,†Shastri said. There was also the sense that because the Indian polity requires playing to different demographics and different demands, the Indian system is essentially a moderating one, despite the messiness of coalition politics. “The system is working. There is nothing wrong with the system,†Bhalla said. “The Indian system is a moderating factor. I don’t see that the [parties] have got it but they will get it.â€

[Yoda-esque]

Who are these South Indians that prefer Rahul?? :wall:

[Detonator]

Who are these South Indians that prefer Rahul?? :wall:

His 2G co scammers. :giggle: