Modi sarkar economic reforms/governance performance thread

[FischerTal]

1 hour ago, surajmal said:

Land and Labour reforms now will definitely be pushed back until 2019. I am onboard with Swamy's abolish income tax idea - earns immediate goodwill. Also increase capex further with the proposed stimulus. Interest rate cut of atleast 100 bp during next RBI meeting. 

 

NPAs have truly fecked the economy. It would be a travesty if some Congis don't go to jail for 10 yrs of uber loot. 

No, no hand back the economy to sardarji who is responsible for creating this mess in the first place. 

 

On a side note, GST rates have to be lowered. It's unreasonable to expect any meaningful growth at current levels. 

 

Edited September 22, 2017 by FischerTal

[Tibarn]

Only a liberandu could think that a government which inherited an economy with a 30+% unemployment rate, a current account deficit of $ -80 billion, external debt approaching 400 billion, dead job growth outside of MNREGA(lol MNREGA as a job creator), an expanded subsidy regime raising entitlement spending/subsidy bill to over RS. 2,00,000 crore , an average inflation of around 9% is the government that ruined the economy.

(This is not to say the economy is great right now, it may be bad, but to say it was ruined by the current government takes a certain level of intellectual dishonesty.)    

 

Edited September 25, 2017 by Tibarn

[Singh bling]

No tax refund, no working capital: How GST is hurting Indian exporters

https://scroll.in/article/851577/no-tax-refund-no-working-capital-how-gst-is-hurting-indian-exporters

 

 

[surajmal]

Freebie season has begun and I don't mind one bit (just don't shift the capex money to this). 

[Tibarn]

23 hours ago, surajmal said:

Freebie season has begun and I don't mind one bit (just don't shift the capex money to this). 

The middle class needs something. The new diesel/petrol policy is squeezing them. 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2017 by Tibarn

[Singh bling]

With limited options to save bleeding economy, Modi is fighting a tough battle with his hands tied

http://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/policy/pm-modi-faces-limited-options-in-quest-to-reverse-indias-slowdown/articleshow/60836516.cms

What ails the Indian economy?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41332272

 

 

Edited September 26, 2017 by Singh bling

[surajmal]

11 hours ago, Tibarn said:

The middle class needs something. The new diesel/petrol policy is squeezing them. 

 

 

petrol/diesel will soon be under GST. I remember Namo speech post UP elections at BJP HQ, where he spelt out the burden on middle classes. So, expect the lowest Income tax bracket to be raised during the next budget (at the very least). 

[surajmal]

Crony Corporates have activated their lackeys in the BJP decrying the state of the economy hoping that Govt wont come after them regarding NPAs. After Yashwant Sinha, expect another round of rapid fire from Shourie soon. 

[Tibarn]

Saw this on another forum...

https://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/floor-hasnt-fallen-through-dont-go-by-feel-economic-data-call-for-measured-rather-than-precipitate-action/

 

 

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Floor hasn’t fallen through: Don’t go by ‘feel’, economic data call for measured rather than precipitate action

Arvind Panagariya 

...

These words aptly summarise the nature of the recent debate on growth in India. During 2014-15 to 2016-17, the real gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices grew 7.5% on average. This growth came on the heels of below-6% average growth during the last two years under the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government.

However, when the Central Statistics Office (CSO) first released its estimate of robust 7.4% growth in 2014-15, most commentators including many of our leading economists rejected it arguing that it did not match their own assessment of reality on the ground. The common refrain was that the economy did not “feel” like it was growing at such a high rate.

 

Quote

Citing collapsing corporate profits and investments as evidence, these critics concluded that the new CSO methodology, on which its estimate was based, was flawed. It did not matter that chief statistician TCA Ananth satisfactorily countered every single methodological criticism or that the claims of collapsing corporate profits and investments were based not on hard data but anecdotes.

So the million dollar question is what do concrete data tell us? Collection of data on corporate savings, which represent corporate profits, and corporate investment lags by a year. Therefore, as of now, 2015-16 is the latest full year for which we have these data.

Corporate savings averaged 11.8% of GDP during 2014-15 and 2015-16. In contrast, between 2003-04 and 2011-12, when the economy grew 8.3% on average, corporate savings averaged a paltry 7.4%. Indeed, corporate savings during each of 2014-15 and 2015-16 have exceeded those in every single year between 2003-04 and 2011-12 by wide margin.

To be sure, legacy sectors such as construction, steel and power have been in distress. But thriving sectors such as auto, auto parts, two wheelers, pharmaceuticals and information technology have more than made up for their poor performance. Unfortunately, consistent with human psychology, negative examples have overshadowed positive ones as also hard data.

What about corporate investment as a proportion of GDP? This figure averaged 12.95% during 2014-15 and 2015-16 and compares with 12.4% on average between 2003-04 and 2011-12. Thus, any claims that corporate investment was out of line with GDP growth estimates too fail to withstand scrutiny.

The average gross capital formation (GCF) as a proportion of GDP, at 31.9% during 2014-15 and 2015-16, has been below the figure of 34.6% during 2003-04 to 2011-12. But it surely does not represent a “collapse” and is well within the range necessary to produce 7.5-8% growth. Indeed, we achieved 8.1% growth in 2003-04 with GCF at just 26.1% of GDP.

CSO growth estimates during the latest two quarters ending on June 30, 2017, have fallen to 6.1% and 5.7%, respectively. Interestingly, this fall has realigned the estimates with the “feelings” of the critics. Consequently, though CSO methodology has remained unchanged, the latter have accepted the estimates without complaint and are now issuing warnings of impending doom relying on them.

While the government must be vigilant to the decline in growth rate, as it demonstrably is, it should avoid overreacting to it. Any claims of fundamental weakness in the economy are so far unsupported by data.

We lack data on savings and investment for 2016-17 but this is no reason to assume that they have dramatically deteriorated. On the other hand, the decline in the growth rate during the last two quarters may well be explained by the massive restructuring of the economy expected in response to recent reforms, most notably, demonetisation, the Goods and Services Tax and cleaning up of non-performing assets (NPAs).

The government must especially resist the temptation to go on a spending spree pre-emptively. It has taken three years of determined effort to achieve fiscal consolidation. This achievement cannot be sacrificed without compelling evidence justifying it.

Known sources of weakness in the economy are two: twin balance sheet problem and poor performance of merchandise exports. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is already tackling the former and the government may consider complementing that effort with accelerated recapitalisation of banks. That will be money well spent.

As regards merchandise exports, even excluding petroleum and petroleum products, they have fallen from $281 billion in 2012 to $229 billion in 2016. This is in sharp contrast to years 2003 to 2011 when merchandise exports expanded manifold. Declining exports alongside rising GDP is a rare occurrence.

The immediate feasible actions in this area lie in the domain of RBI.  The rupee has seen a massive real appreciation in recent years and this needs to be reversed at least partially. Possible instruments include accelerated accumulation of reserves; no further relaxation of the ceiling on foreign investment in debt, which has heavily dominated portfolio inflows recently; and cutting the interest rate.

In the longer run, the government must do its part by rationalising and lowering the tariffs; taking further actions on trade facilitation; and creating coastal employment zones. These measures would not only help exports but also create gainful employment opportunities.

 

[Singh bling]

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/yashwant-sinha-bjp-rss-affiliate-narendra-modi-india-economic-policies-gdp/1/1056961.html?

After Yashwant Sinha, RSS affiliate hits out at Modi govt's economic policies

 

Yeh bhee Congie , Commie Aaptard ho gaye 

[surajmal]

Jayant Sinha to his daddy, "STFU old man! Quit ruining my career prospects!"

[surajmal]

Does one need more proof for why RSS pulled the ground support from BJP during UPA years? What a bunch of self important, compromised shits. 

[surajmal]

looking at the wef (india) videos, all the moderators are ideaofindia/lutyens types. WTF?! Namo has done jack all in dealing with this hydra.

[sandeep]

On 9/21/2017 at 5:02 AM, The Outsider said:

The economy has been ruined by the buffoons from Shakhas running the government. If demonetization was a train wreck, GST is slow poison. It is so horrendously complex that will drive lakhs of SMEs out of business. A tax system is successful if the rates are reasonable and the structure simple. GST is a nightmare, the effects of which are just starting to trickle through.

 

Firstly, the logistics. The site keeps crashing and can't handle the load. The FM tries to lay the blame on the people for filing at the last moment. Well, duh, that happens with any tax in the world. People file during the last few days. It's human nature, but there is another important point in context of GST and why this is a disaster.

 

Liquidity. People file at the last minute because they want liquidity in the business. These Shakha buffoons don't know that one of the main reasons for the 2008 crisis was liquidity and since then governments and financial systems try to ensure liquidity. 90k Crores of tax was deposited in the first round of which 60k Crores is input credit the government is supposed to return. Small businesses don't have the kind of liquidity to wait for 90 days for the government to return money. By the time people start getting their money Rs. 200k Crore would have been sucked out of the economy.

 

Which brings us to the next point, where these Sanghi buffoons will screw things up. They've already started casting aspersions on the large input credit being claimed and said they will investigate these claims. This means a further delay and harrassment. You can't run an economy on the assumption that everyone is corrupt. It has to be the other way round - prove the tax evasion and punish the guilty. 

 

The filing system itself is so horribly complex that only CAs will benefit from it. 

 

The structure itself is asinine and literally hundreds of inconsistencies have been pointed out by people. But besides that it will completely kill small online enterprises. People running small portals to supplement their income, as a dabbling venture, or a hobby will simply not be able to afford the cost of complying with GST. 

 

Of course, GST is but one example of handing over the economy of the country to a bunch of trishul carrying Sanghis. The unfolding Jaypee fiasco is another. There is no provision in the bankruptcy law to deal with assets like real estate which have been given as colateral twice - once by Jaypee and also by the home buyers. According to the law, home buyers aren't entitled to shiiit. Now, we will have another case of judicial overreach where the judiciary will give a whimsical ruling in an effort to cover up a poorly written law. And Jaypee is just the start. If there is any hope to save the banking system in the country, more such companies will need to be brought out. Problem is they have already siphoned the loans and will leave tens of thousands of homeowners in the lurch.

 

And yeah, the fuel prices. With exports languishing, only a government run from Shakhas will keep fuel prices so high. No economy has seen sustained growth without strong exports. Ever. A strong rupee and high fuel prices is a recipe for disaster. You can't grow an economy and by high taxes and government spending, when it is proven that government has the worst efficiency in spending. I pity the fools who thought they were electing the second coming of Friedman in 2014. This government's economic policies would make Marx proud.

 

Demonetization impacted the poor the most, the slightly well off and middle class managed through it and sang paens of nation building. The impact will creep up to them soon, it is already starting to with the worst jobs outlook ever and impact on home budgets due to GST. It will accelerate unless the second coming of Milton Friedman prostates in front of Sardarji and begs him to help repair the economy which he has destroyed, because it's obvious by now what the cowshed owners running this country know about the economy. 

Man, its funny reading this stuff when you 'go postal' like this.  

[sandeep]

An interesting read by one of my favorite journalists on Modi.  @The Outsider you should like this one.

 

Prem Panicker writes on Modi

Edited October 11, 2017 by sandeep

[surajmal]

Finally some movement on NPA front. This time next year, things should be rolling. Namo needs to make sure middle class gets atleast few goodies thrown their way next budget... Should balance out the negative press of losing 1 of Rajasthan/Karnataka. 

[asterix]

Finally some movement on NPA front. This time next year, things should be rolling. Namo needs to make sure middle class gets atleast few goodies thrown their way next budget... Should balance out the negative press of losing 1 of Rajasthan/Karnataka. 

There’s a lot of talk about riding unemployment etc. What’s the actual situation? Why GOI is struggling in that aspect? Lots of young people voted for Modi for “achchey din”.
Modi govt is now at the business end of the term. Enough of Swachcha Bharat etc. Need more focus on job creation, relax AADHAR related issues...

Too many hard decision (including mandatory AADHAR Card) will gonna screw up whatever goodwill Modi has generated. He should keep some of the tasks for next term. Why he’s in so much hurry to do all this in one term only?

[surajmal]

5 minutes ago, asterix said:

There’s a lot of talk about riding unemployment etc. What’s the actual situation? Why GOI is struggling in that aspect? Lots of young people voted for Modi for “achchey din”.
Modi govt is now at the business end of the term. Enough of Swachcha Bharat etc. Need more focus on job creation, relax AADHAR related issues...
 

Jobs problem isnt going away. I'm pretty sure, Universal basic income will be rolled out in 2019 budget. Jobs wont really pick up (regardless of how much public money is spent on infrastructure) until land/labour laws are fixed. Which I don't see being addressed over the remaining term. And whats wrong with Swachch Bharat? Its an equal part behavioral and infrastructure problem. Namo is addressing the component that doesn't requirement gazillion dollars in spending first (although they are spending money). 

 

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Too many hard decision (including mandatory AADHAR Card) will gonna screw up whatever goodwill Modi has generated. He should keep some of the tasks for next term. Why he’s in so much hurry to do all this in one term only?

Thats the view from lutyens press only. Aam aadmi wants what the Namo has promised via DigitalIndia. 

 

Jobs and Inflation are the biggest issues for aam aadmi. Namo delivered on one, couldn't on other because of the blackhole that UPA left in the banking system...still more than what UPA could do in 10 yrs. If jobs problem is even slightly alleviated with the banking reforms being implemented, BJP shouldn't have much problem in 2019. 

 

BJP's fault lies on lack of movement on Hindutva issues. And I dont have much hope from them on that. Concerned parties need to find alternative means to make headway into Ram Mandir, getting temples free, RTE etc. 

[asterix]

Ram Mandir issue is progressing positively IMO. With talks of Sri Sri mediating and Shia Board being more Pragmatic and flexible.

With Swachcha Bharat I meant was that public want to see some tangible improvement in their basic needs and Modi needs to now focus on delivering something visible on those issues...

Linking Aadhar with Ration cards to mobile phones etc is going to be irritating for the larger public. Why can't all this be postponed for the next term?

Don't want to discuss the fuel prices... GOI milked it to maximum...

[diga]

Modi govt focussing too much on opposition noise.. hardly 40 MPs from Congress & too much importance given.

Hopefully the govt can concentrate on its work & at least win 75% of its 2014 tally