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Real McCoy

Wins needed to qualify for the WC semifinal

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Teams need around 6 wins out of 9 games to qualify. There maybe a scenario where 3 teams end up with 6 wins in that case the one with the lowest NRR among them will be knocked out. So in our case, we need 7 wins to make sure we qualify considering Dhoni taking it to the last over :phehe: All teams in the tournament can spring forth an upset. We need to be careful about that and also beat good teams too. The thought is making me :fear1:

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I think winning 5 or even 4 (If multiple games gets rained off) may be enough to qualify. Main reason is that the teams are relatively even matched in this world cup. 

 

You may see scenarios like A  beats B , B beats C and C beats A , making points distribution even. We saw SRH qualify for top 4 with just 6 wins out of 14. So, there will surely be a scenario where 4 wins out of 9 will take you into SF. If I'm not wrong, Pak qualified like that in 1992. :proud:

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1 hour ago, Norman said:

I think winning 5 or even 4 (If multiple games gets rained off) may be enough to qualify. Main reason is that the teams are relatively even matched in this world cup. 

 

You may see scenarios like A  beats B , B beats C and C beats A , making points distribution even. We saw SRH qualify for top 4 with just 6 wins out of 14. So, there will surely be a scenario where 4 wins out of 9 will take you into SF. If I'm not wrong, Pak qualified like that in 1992. :proud:

In 1992, teams played 8 games. A rained off game gives points to both teams so that equals to 0.5 win. Pak won 50% of its games 4 out of 8 (same as Aus) but the rained off game, which it could have lost iirc, gave it more points (4.5 wins out of 8)

 

With less wins, the NRR or no results points gain importance. A beats B, B beats C, and C beats A, could happen among top teams and minnow teams. In games involving a top and a minnow, the top team would expect to get points on 9 out of 10 occasions

 

If most top teams beat AFG, BD and SL for e.g. They have to aim to win 6-7 games in total. Even with 6 games, NRR could come into play (not accounting for NR) so 7 wins should be the target to avoid having to rely on “luck” 

 

Edited by zen

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On paper top 6 teams should beat Afghan,SL,Bangladesh and WI then a shootout between the top sides. And even the 4 sides I mentioned are not going to be pushovers. Can’t see WI and  even Bangladesh or SL losing every game to the top sides.

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Eng 7 (top with NRR)...losses against WI and Ind

Ind 7...losses against Aus, NZ

Aus 6...losses against Eng, NZ, WI 

NZ 6...losses against Eng, Pak, RSA

 

These 4 will contest semis. 

Eng defeat NZ

Aus defeat Ind

 

Final: Aus defeat Eng

 

A few more predictions @Norman

 

Regards

Image result for nostradamus

Edited by Gollum

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12 minutes ago, Gollum said:

Eng 7 (top with NRR)...losses against WI and Ind

Ind 7...losses against Aus, NZ

Aus 6...losses against Eng, NZ, WI 

NZ 6...losses against Eng, Pak, RSA

 

These 4 will contest semis. 

Eng defeat NZ

Aus defeat Ind

 

Final: Aus defeat Eng

 

A few more predictions @Norman

 

Regards

Image result for nostradamus

Who the heck is he ? 

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Teams can qualify with even 4 wins because half of the tournament is gonna end up being whitewashed. That's why I think Bangladesh is going to qualify for SF. They will defeat Afghanistan, WI, SL, NZ and Pakistan. Washout against Australia and lose other 3 games.

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