zen Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 World Cup TEAM M W L T N/R PT NRR FOR AGAINST 1Australia 5 4 1 0 0 8 0.812 1454/234.5 1345/250.0 2New Zealand 4 3 0 0 1 7 2.163 558/95.3 552/150.0 3India 4 3 0 0 1 7 1.029 883/137.3 755/140.0 4England 4 3 1 0 0 6 1.557 1244/183.1 1047/200.0 5Bangladesh 5 2 2 0 1 5 -0.27 1176/191.3 1264/197.1 6Sri Lanka 5 1 2 0 2 4 -1.778 569/141.0 623/107.1 7West Indies 5 1 3 0 1 3 0.272 914/163.4 928/174.4 8South Africa 5 1 3 0 1 3 -0.208 874/178.4 997/195.3 9Pakistan 5 1 3 0 1 3 -1.933 931/190.0 1050/153.4 10Afghanistan 4 0 4 0 0 0 -1.638 657/189.0 699/136 With games getting abandoned due to rain and upsets being registered, teams with around 10 + higher NRR can squeeze into the top 4. If so, theoretically, even Afg can make it as it has 5 games in hand At this point, the maximum a team can get is 16-17 points. The current top 5 have a bunch of games vs. each other: Aus has to play NZ, Eng, and BD NZ has games vs. Eng and Aus Eng plays Aus, NZ, and Ind And then there is the Ind-BD game as well Link to comment
goose Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 We could yet see jostling for 4th place but in India's case i think it's a shame we are highly likely only two knockout games from winning it. This format is low on knockout excitement. Link to comment
Mjcricket Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, goose said: We could yet see jostling for 4th place but in India's case i think it's a shame we are highly likely only two knockout games from winning it. This format is low on knockout excitement. Yes. Actually the teams who consistently win their games continue to stay at the top of the table. cowboysfan 1 Link to comment
zen Posted June 17, 2019 Author Share Posted June 17, 2019 2 2 minutes ago, goose said: We could yet see jostling for 4th place but in India's case i think it's a shame we are highly likely only two knockout games from winning it. This format is low on knockout excitement. It depends. Say Ind beats AFG, so it gets to 9 points. But then goes on to lose vs. WI, Eng, and BD. Now depending upon how things go with other teams, the SL game could become a must win to offer that "excitement" Stuge 1 Link to comment
poi Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 Simulated remaining matches' scenarios --- First, assumed that AFG/SL/BAN will all lose against other teams: --- Here, I only assume AFG will lose against other teams, so BAN/SL are legitimate contenders: --- Based on what we see from BAN vs WI, perhaps we shouldn't count out BAN and SL from upsetting stronger teams. Note that those %s are %s of total scenarios. Some scenarios are highly unlikely, while some scenarios are more likely. My current simulation does not utilize weights at the scenario level, so I simply sum the possible scenarios and calculate the %. If we want to be fancy(and more precise), I can assign individual weights to games. For eg IND vs BAN game could be assigned to India at 90% (rather than 50% defaulted currently) and that would affect the above tables' %s. Zero_Unit, zen and diehardpacer 3 Link to comment
zen Posted June 17, 2019 Author Share Posted June 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, poi said: If we want to be fancy(and more precise), I can assign individual weights to games. For eg IND vs BAN game could be assigned to India at 90% (rather than 50% defaulted currently) and that would affect the above tables' %s. One way to assign weights is to go by ranking where Top 3: Aus, Eng, and Ind Middle 3: BD, NZ, and WI Bottom 4: Afg, Pak, SA, and SL a) Games among T3, M3, and B4 are 50/50 b) Games b/w teams from T3 and M3, and M3 and B4 are 60 for the higher ranked group, and 40 for the lower ranked group c) Game b/w T3 and B4 are 70/30 Zero_Unit and diehardpacer 2 Link to comment
poi Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 1 hour ago, zen said: One way to assign weights is to go by ranking where Top 3: Aus, Eng, and Ind Middle 3: BD, NZ, and WI Bottom 4: Afg, Pak, SA, and SL a) Games among T3, M3, and B4 are 50/50 b) Games b/w teams from T3 and M3, and M3 and B4 are 60 for the higher ranked group, and 40 for the lower ranked group c) Game b/w T3 and B4 are 70/30 Sounds like a good idea. I will try to incorporate the weights. Link to comment
zen Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 Practically, NZ would feel that they are 1 win/NR away (or 2 if NRR becomes a concern in future) from securing a semi spot World Cup TEAM M W L T N/R PT NRR FOR AGAINST 1New Zealand 5 4 0 0 1 9 1.591 803/144.0 793/199.0 2England 5 4 1 0 0 8 1.862 1641/233.1 1294/250.0 3Australia 5 4 1 0 0 8 0.812 1454/234.5 1345/250.0 4India 4 3 0 0 1 7 1.029 883/137.3 755/140.0 5Bangladesh 5 2 2 0 1 5 -0.27 1176/191.3 1264/197.1 6Sri Lanka 5 1 2 0 2 4 -1.778 569/141.0 623/107.1 7West Indies 5 1 3 0 1 3 0.272 914/163.4 928/174.4 8South Africa 6 1 4 0 1 3 -0.193 1115/227.4 1242/244.0 9Pakistan 5 1 3 0 1 3 -1.933 931/190.0 1050/153.4 10Afghanistan 5 0 5 0 0 0 -2.089 904/239.0 Link to comment
chewy Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 top 4, more or else confirmed NZ with this win have confirmed their spot Only team able to challenge is Bangladesh, from the 4 left, two are winnable for them Pressure will be on Aus, especially next match vs Bangla, then their next three is Eng, NZ and SA But the way results are going the final two-three group matches will end up being dead rubbers Link to comment
chewy Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 World cup needed IPL style eliminator, to keep the top 2-3 interested till the end AuxiliA 1 Link to comment
zen Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, chewy said: NZ with this win have confirmed their spot Not confirmed yet as theoretically other teams can sneak in too if NZ fails to win at least 1 of its remaining games .... Needs 1 win/NR more (if not 2) to feel "secure" Edited June 19, 2019 by zen Link to comment
asterix Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 NZ is a pretty boring team... the WC semi final involving NZ will be pretty boring... Link to comment
zen Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, asterix said: NZ is a pretty boring team... the WC semi final involving NZ will be pretty boring... Ind is boring too for those who support other teams Link to comment
coffee_rules Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, zen said: Ind is boring too for those who support other teams No as a neutral, Eng, Aus, and even WI, BD play exciting cricket. NZ and SA are boring, I find SA even more boring than NZ Zero_Unit and asterix 2 Link to comment
zen Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 (edited) 33 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: No as a neutral, Eng, Aus, and even WI, BD play exciting cricket. NZ and SA are boring, I find SA even more boring than NZ I only find Eng and WI's cricket exciting in general. Other teams have certain players who can entertain including NZ which has cricketers who are exciting when they get going and its fast bowling is good to watch too Edited June 19, 2019 by zen Link to comment
Zero_Unit Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 ^ when on form, WI is probably the most interesting cricket team to witness. Eng of late has been fantastic. Link to comment
Zero_Unit Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 1 hour ago, zen said: Practically, NZ would feel that they are 1 win/NR away (or 2 if NRR becomes a concern in future) from securing a semi spot World Cup TEAM M W L T N/R PT NRR FOR AGAINST 1New Zealand 5 4 0 0 1 9 1.591 803/144.0 793/199.0 2England 5 4 1 0 0 8 1.862 1641/233.1 1294/250.0 3Australia 5 4 1 0 0 8 0.812 1454/234.5 1345/250.0 4India 4 3 0 0 1 7 1.029 883/137.3 755/140.0 5Bangladesh 5 2 2 0 1 5 -0.27 1176/191.3 1264/197.1 6Sri Lanka 5 1 2 0 2 4 -1.778 569/141.0 623/107.1 7West Indies 5 1 3 0 1 3 0.272 914/163.4 928/174.4 8South Africa 6 1 4 0 1 3 -0.193 1115/227.4 1242/244.0 9Pakistan 5 1 3 0 1 3 -1.933 931/190.0 1050/153.4 10Afghanistan 5 0 5 0 0 0 -2.089 904/239.0 Who would have thought before the worldcup began that Bangladesh would be the one pushing for that final spot in the semifinal and batteling it out agains AUS out of all team. My money would have been on SA, heck even Pakistan. All thanks to Shakib Link to comment
zen Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Zero_Unit said: Who would have thought before the worldcup began that Bangladesh would be the one pushing for that final spot in the semifinal and batteling it out agains AUS out of all team. My money would have been on SA, heck even Pakistan. All thanks to Shakib Shakib has been brilliant so far. BD next plays Aus and Ind, who are beatable, so should remain positive Edited June 19, 2019 by zen Link to comment
PBN Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 WC half way done and the top four are more or less sealed Link to comment
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