zen Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 (edited) Globally: 150M cases Death: 3M Death rate: 2% USA: 32M (approx 10% of population) Death: 572K Death rate: 2% In Ind, the situation has and could get worse due to the perfect storm that works for pandemic: large population less severe proactive measures (social distancing, masks, etc) limited access to healthcare facilities and supplies Black Death (1347-1351) Death 75M-200M Death rate: 30-50% of the population Considering that US, which has approx. 1/4 Ind's population in 3x its area, along with relatively better medical facilities in general, the death rate is 2%. In Ind, because of various complications (including types of viruses), it could get much higher. If I am not wrong, more than 95% of the population (1.3B+) is not fully vaccinated yet (For comparison, in USA approx 30% of the population is fully vaccinated). Such a pandemic can spread exponentially (not linearly). In the worst case scenario, it could get catastrophic. Edited April 30, 2021 by zen
MechEng Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 Black death did not take away 200 million people. They're all hypothetical estimates by historians. Mediaeval Europeans were not experts in statistics and record keeping.
Texy Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 already happening in India after playing Holi in March. Negligence at its peak. Now everyone s suffering. cnn US homepage today
ravishingravi Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 There two factors to consider :- 1) We have a vaccination ongoing. Apart from being mitigating factor, it also provides great psychological support for those waiting and it will only get ramped up. 2) Indians have shown greater immunity to the virus so far. Not just India, but Indian sub continent in general. We should reach an inflexion point in next 2-3 weeks. In next 2-3 months with 30 crores additional vaccines, there could be natural flattening like UK. f20143g70 and randomGuy 2
Stan AF Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 The number of deaths reported in India is a huge sham. Don't believe in it. ash 1
ash Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 Third wave is also inevitable. It would take atleast 2-3 months to start vaccinations for 18+ smoothly. And by the time we reach 70% vaccination, the elders would need the next booster shot. For the next 2 years India is screwed
ash Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Stan AF said: The number of deaths reported in India is a huge sham. Don't believe in it. Exactly. People are just taking the reported numbers and claiming that we have "Immunity".
R!TTER Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 6 hours ago, ravishingravi said: Indians have shown greater immunity to the virus so far. Not just India, but Indian sub continent in general. We should reach an inflexion point in next 2-3 weeks. In next 2-3 months with 30 crores additional vaccines, there could be natural flattening like UK. No evidence for that, good chance with our low per capita reporting we simply didn't count so many infected. For what exactly? Nah I'm still seeing a lot of skepticism from a lot of educated "elites" about Modiji infecting injecting them with a virus. You're seriously thinking an additional 30 crores will get vaccinated in the next 3 months
ravishingravi Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 1 minute ago, R!TTER said: No evidence for that, good chance with our low per capita reporting we simply didn't count so many infected. For what exactly? Nah I'm still seeing a lot of skepticism from a lot of educated "elites" about Modiji infecting injecting them with a virus. You're seriously thinking an additional 30 crores will get vaccinated in the next 3 months If you take per day vaccination run rate and multiply by 92 days you will get the number. I could be wrong, but multiplication is not monopoly of the elite.
R!TTER Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 And the supply, are you counting Sputnik in there as well?
ravishingravi Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 1 minute ago, R!TTER said: And the supply, are you counting Sputnik in there as well? If you add Sputnik and increased Covaxin capacity it will be much higher. Say Sputnik comes by end of May and Covaxin in June. I think by July 35 Crores is fairly realistic.
R!TTER Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 5 hours ago, Stan AF said: The number of deaths reported in India is a huge sham. Don't believe in it. The numbers reported everywhere is a huge sham! Oh btw the sham doesn't run just one way - you think reporting negative or less deaths due to Covid is the only thing happening here? Lots of False positives & forced hospitalization still going on in the country, & unless you don't know how thing work in India that business is at least 10-100x more lucrative!
ravishingravi Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, ravishingravi said: If you add Sputnik and increased Covaxin capacity it will be much higher. Say Sputnik comes by end of May and Covaxin in June. I think by July 35 Crores is fairly realistic. To clarify, it should be 35 Cr plus existing 13 cr = 48 Cr by end of July, approx 50 cr.
ravishingravi Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 2 hours ago, ash said: Exactly. People are just taking the reported numbers and claiming that we have "Immunity". So, how much is it ? 2 x or 10 x
coffee_rules Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, ravishingravi said: So, how much is it ? 2 x or 10 x Interesting choice of multipliers, Kushal Mehra says the same. Nice article with aakhade If you claim India’s Covid death toll is 2x govt figure, it’s understandable. But not 10x Just to give some perspective, the official death toll as of 28 April is 2,04,812. If the actual figure was 10 times, it’d mean that more than 20 lakh (or 2 million) people in India have succumbed to Covid-19.
ravishingravi Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: Interesting choice of multipliers, Kushal Mehra says the same. Nice article with aakhade If you claim India’s Covid death toll is 2x govt figure, it’s understandable. But not 10x Just to give some perspective, the official death toll as of 28 April is 2,04,812. If the actual figure was 10 times, it’d mean that more than 20 lakh (or 2 million) people in India have succumbed to Covid-19. Indeed. I read Kushal’s piece and I couldn’t agree. I know it’s free for all wrist slitters. But it would be good to see some basis or estimation. I know we want to see some big numbers to shake the rulers. But it would be good to see some logic. Indwin and ash 1 1
coffee_rules Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, ravishingravi said: Indeed. I read Kushal’s piece and I couldn’t agree. I know it’s free for all wrist slitters. But it would be good to see some basis or estimation. I know we want to see some big numbers to shake the rulers. But it would be good to see some logic. you couldn’t agree? Or couldn’t agree more? In any accident or natural disaster report in India, the deaths are reported and it is common to say that it is just an official count, in reality, it is a lot more. But nobody in their right mind would estimate it 10x times that. Edited April 30, 2021 by coffee_rules
ravishingravi Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 (edited) 58 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: you couldn’t agree? Or couldn’t agree more? In any accident or natural disaster report in India, the deaths are reported and it is common to say that it is just an official count, in reality, it is a lot more. But nobody in their right mind would estimate it 10x times that. Yeah. I do agree. The deaths are under reported. But in an environment of hysteria if we are expecting 1 million bodies buried some where or thrown in the ocean, I think it’s fair to say they are clueless. but a delta of 0.5 is possible. But I have no evidence for this. Edited April 30, 2021 by ravishingravi coffee_rules 1
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