LOI WC patterns involving India (T20WC22)

[zen]

Let's look at some patterns (need at least 3 touch points) or potential patterns (with 2 touch points and where there is possibility of the 3rd touch point) involving India. 

 

 

To win an ICC World Cup, India had to beat AUS: 

 

• 1983 ENG: Ind beat Aus in the group stage 
• 2007 SA: Ind beat Aus in the SF
• 2011 IND: Ind beat Aus in the QF 

 

Because we see 3 touch points, this is a strong pattern. If Ind is to win this world cup, chances are strong that it could play AUS in either the SF or F ...  If AUS does not make it to the knockouts, IND would be up against this strong pattern, which means a lot of things may have to go Ind's way for it to win. 

 

 

 

2nd pattern that has formed or could potentially form is Ind's disastrous performances when captained by someone from the South: 

 

• 1992, 1996, & 1999: Azharuddin ... Key positives were beating Pak in those events. Less said about the 1996 SF the better. 
• 2007: Dravid ... Again a disaster 

 

So there are only 2 touch points yet. However, if you include the 1989 Nehru Cup, a unique multi-nation event, it was a disaster for India at home under Srikant. 

 

There are a few grey areas here: 

 

• 2 touch points if ICC events are considered. A pattern formed if the Nehru Cup is included 
• Rohit Sharma - is he from the South or the West? ... Add Dravid as coach and KL has VC to the mix

 

 

Depending upon how you see it, these are strong patterns to keep in mind ... Patterns can be broken but it would need a strong push and team effort. 

 

[Majestic]

1st point has some sense. India personally would also want to face and beat Australia in either semis or finals as we do have some mental advantage over them since 2007.

 

Another point on this is if Australia gets knocked out then we may likely face England or New Zealand in semis and we don't really have a very good matchup against them. We did beat England in CT 2013 final but this England team is stronger on paper and in T20s, our current team is still very capable of bottling it. Against New Zealand, there is no second invitation on what our recent record is.

 

So, a semi final exit could be possible. Surprisingly, it won't be wrong to say that out of the three teams- Australia, England and New Zealand, one team that India would want to play in semis would actually be Australia who generally dominate others in knockouts. Ofcourse, if India gets Sri Lanka, that is an easier bet for us as these are Aussie conditions and we have far more experience here than SL have.

 

Your 2nd point don't make much sense to me so I can't say much about that. The first point is possible because some teams have their own bogey team or team which has better matchups and hence it can play a factor.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Majestic

[Chakdephatte]

I lost million brain cells reading this 'analysis'.

[Chakdephatte]

We did beat them in 2019 as well. Where's our trophy?

 

 

[zen]

14 minutes ago, Majestic said:

1st point has some sense. India personally would also want to face and beat Australia in either semis or finals as we do have some mental advantage over them since 2007.

 

Another point on this is if Australia gets knocked out then we may likely face England or New Zealand in semis and we don't really have a very good matchup against them. We did beat England in CT 2013 final but this England team is stronger on paper and in T20s, our current team is still very capable of bottling it. Against New Zealand, there is no second invitation on what our recent record is.

 

So, a semi final exit could be possible. Surprisingly, it won't be wrong to say that out of the three teams- Australia, England and New Zealand, one team that India would want to play in semis would actually be Australia who generally dominate others in knockouts. Ofcourse, if India gets Sri Lanka, that is an easier bet for us as these are Aussie conditions and we have far more experience here than SL have.

 

Your 2nd point don't make much sense to me so I can't say much about that. The first point is possible because some teams have their own bogey team or team which has better matchups and hence it can play a factor.

 

This is about patterns, which can be counter intuitive at times. i.e. you may want to avoid Aus considering it has beaten Ind many times including in KOs but if you go by patterns, they suggest that Ind had to invariably beat Aus to win a world cup. 

 

Once a pattern is formed, you need a strong push and team effort to beat it. For e.g., SA losing in knockouts is a pattern but if SA plays its best, it can break that pattern. 

Edited October 24, 2022 by zen

[zen]

8 minutes ago, Chakdephatte said:

We did beat them in 2019 as well. Where's our trophy?

 

 

You are talking about something that is not relevant to what is being discussed 

 

No one is going to do the explaining here as the topic is for those with interest in patterns and some level of understanding

Edited October 24, 2022 by zen

[zen]

Another fun "potential" pattern (potential as it has only 2 touch points) for ODI WC:

 

• 1983 WC - Kapil 175*
• 2011 WC - Sehwag 175 

 

Therefore, if someone hits a 175 in the 2023 WC and Ind is slated to play AUS either in group games or knockouts, you can put some $ on India. If the 175 comes in the final, it would be too late to notice the pattern before hand. 

[Chakdephatte]

16 minutes ago, zen said:

You are talking about something that is not relevant to what is being discussed 

 

No one is going to do the explaining here as the topic is for those with interest in patterns and some level of understanding

 

Is this a new science you just recently discovered?

 

This is more astronomy than analysis.

 

Your logic says it's good for us if we face Australia in a knockout in their den. But any other team will trouble us.

[Chakdephatte]

3 minutes ago, zen said:

Another fun "potential" pattern (potential as it has only 2 touch points) for ODI WC:

 

• 1983 WC - Kapil 175*
• 2011 WC - Sehwag 175 

 

Therefore, if someone hits a 175 in the 2023 WC and Ind is slated to play AUS either in group games or knockouts, you can put some $ on India. If the 175 comes in the final, it would be too late to notice the pattern before hand. 

 

Are you a bookie, better or something? You surely sound like one.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Chakdephatte

[maniac]

In knockouts you need to take the bull by the horns and counter attack.

 

Sehwag’s assault against Umar Gul

Sachin-Sehwag vs 2 W’s and Akthar 

 

Even in 2007 WT20 Yusuf Pathan hit a 6 in the first over. I was totally stunned. Never saw an Indian batsman do that in the first over. Even Sachin-Sehwag were 4 hitters at the start. That set some momentum even if he got out.

 

I must say yesterday I was really sad the way both Rahul and Rohit played vs Shaheen Shah in the first over. He was clearly injured/ under pressure and was bowling in the early 130’s. and there was no swing. The first ball was full on pads at 132 k, Rahul almost gets caught and bowled. A half volley ball at 135k Rohit gently drives for a 2. I have seen him hit those for 6’s against much higher speed and better bowlers in Australia before. In the entire game only Pandya, Ashwin, Arshdeep, Shami and Bhuvi looked cool as a cucumber. Rest all including Kohli before that Nawaz over which went for 20 were looking like they are about to have a heart attack.

 

So patterns are very clear. Play fearless cricket. Fearless cricket doesn’t mean brainless cricket or irresponsible slogging but calculated counter attack. You can do that with bowling to like 83 WC final or even WT20 2007 final.
 

 Hopefully this win gives them confidence. The team still has a lot of flaws. they need to go all guns blazing but with a plan/template. 
 

Had we lost yesterday I am 100% sure we would have lost to one of Zim, Ban, Ned because our bowling doesn’t have that fear factor other teams have. 
 

Got the Pakistan win in the pocket now so should play freely with 0 pressure.

 

 

 

Edited October 24, 2022 by maniac

[zen]

7 hours ago, Chakdephatte said:

 

Is this a new science you just recently discovered?

 

This is more astronomy than analysis.

 

 

It is not new which is why the topic is for those who are at least somewhat into it. 

 

 

Quote

Your logic says it's good for us if we face Australia in a knockout in their den. But any other team will trouble us.

 

Your is a random interpretation.  Ind did not face AUS in knockouts in 1983. In 2011, it faced AUS in QF, so Ind played two more knockouts after that. Ind has lost to AUS in many events too. 

 

The pattern says that whenever Ind won a title it had to invariable beat Aus. To break it, Ind would need to do to play at its best. These are not predictions. 

 

For e.g., SA losing in knockouts can be seen as a pattern. If SA is in KOs, you would eventually expect it to lose in one of them. To beat this pattern, SA would need to play some superb cricket. Similarly, Pak losing to India is a pattern, to beat it, Pak would need to have an outstanding game (which it had last year in UAE). 

 

 

Edited October 25, 2022 by zen

[zen]

12 minutes ago, Chakdephatte said:

 

Are you a bookie, better or something? You surely sound like one.

 

No I am not  

 

But people who bet do ask about my opinion as they will make money more often than not. 

[SM2907]

1983 - won the semi and final

2007 - won the semi and final

2011 - won the semi and final

 

Pattern formed.

So in this one if we win semi and final we will win the cup.

 

It's a T20 world tournament. Itna Kya milega isko jeet ke?

[SM2907]

15 minutes ago, maniac said:

In knockouts you need to take the bull by the horns and counter attack.

 

Sehwag’s assault against Umar Gul

Sachin-Sehwag vs 2 W’s and Akthar 

 

Even in 2007 WT20 Yusuf Pathan hit a 6 in the first over. I was totally stunned. Never saw an Indian batsman do that in the first over. Even Sachin-Sehwag were 4 hitters at the start. That set some momentum even if he got out.

 

I must say yesterday I was really sad the way both Rahul and Rohit played vs Shaheen Shah in the first over. He was clearly injured/ under pressure and was bowling in the early 130’s. and there was no swing. The first ball was full on pads at 132 k, Rahul almost gets caught and bowled. A half volley ball at 135k Rohit gently drives for a 2. I have seen him hit those for 6’s against much higher speed and better bowlers in Australia before. In the entire game only Pandya, Ashwin, Arshdeep, Shami and Bhuvi looked cool as a cucumber. Rest all including Kohli before that Nawaz over which went for 20 were looking like they are about to have a heart attack.

 

So patterns are very clear. Play fearless cricket. Fearless cricket doesn’t mean brainless cricket or irresponsible slogging but calculated counter attack. You can do that with bowling to like 83 WC final or even WT20 2007 final.
 

 Hopefully this win gives them confidence. The team still has a lot of flaws. they need to go all guns blazing but with a plan/template. 
 

Had we lost yesterday I am 100% sure we would have lost to one of Zim, Ban, Ned because our bowling doesn’t have that fear factor other teams have. 
 

Got the Pakistan win in the pocket now so should play freely with 0 pressure.

 

 

 

Rohit looked very nervous. Think should get better on his nerves from now on 

[zen]

Just now, SM2907 said:

1983 - won the semi and final

2007 - won the semi and final

2011 - won the semi and final

 

Pattern formed.

So in this one if we win semi and final we will win the cup.

 

It's a T20 world tournament. Itna Kya milega isko jeet ke?

 

Those type of "patterns" would be formed by those who live in Indian subcon (Ind & Pak) 

 

It is an easy give away. I will put $s that you live in India.

 

 

 

[SM2907]

Just now, zen said:

 

Those type of "patterns" would be formed by those who live in Indian subcon (Ind & Pak) 

 

It is an easy give away. I will put $s that you live in India.

 

 

 

I do. But I spent a lot of my life in the west. 

[zen]

3 minutes ago, SM2907 said:

I do. But I spent a lot of my life in the west. 

 

 

Just kidding. Based on how a post is interpreted, arguments formed, how stats used, etc., I can tell where a poster is based. And those who live in India (and Pak) are likely to agree with each other too (birds of a feather) 

Edited October 24, 2022 by zen

[SM2907]

There was a tied game in 2007 and 2011. So if we get a tied game in 2022, we are winning this

 

[SM2907]

We did beat Aus in the warm ups. There is the pattern and so we should win this one 

[zen]

14 minutes ago, SM2907 said:

There was a tied game in 2007 and 2011. So if we get a tied game in 2022, we are winning this

 

 

You can term it as a "potential pattern" that could form in the 21st century as in 1983, I am not sure we had a tied game ... don't forget to add AUS to the mix if applicable 

 

PS also the right phrase would be "higher probability" of winning (as there can be unknown unknowns)

Edited October 24, 2022 by zen