So here are the qualification scenarios

[Norman]

I can see people are getting a bit agitated of our knock out chances after the defeat today so let me just make this a bit clearer.. 

 

All teams have played 3 games.. 

 

South Africa have 5 

India have 4

Bangladesh have 4

Zimbabwe have 3

Pakistan has 2 

 

Not considering Ned here for obvious reasons. So here we go... 

 

South Africa already has one foot in the semi final - unless they lose to Pakistan and their Netherlands game gets washed out (highly unlikely) 

 

 

 India - Also are well placed to make the semi with two "easier" games remaining to be played. If we win both our games, we'll be through. If we lose one (likely against Bangladesh), we will have to hope that Pakistan beats Bangladesh and won't allow them to reach 8 points. If we beat Bangladesh and somehow lose to Zimbabwe, we will have to pray that Bangladesh beats Pakistan as former's NRR is absolutely dog shiiite.If we lose both x we'll be out no matter what (highly unlikely). 

 

Bangladesh - Has same points as India but their road is a lot tougher as they have games against India and Pakistan left and also a very very poor NRR. So, if they win only one game of those two, they're most certainly out unless it's a miraculous 80 run win or something. If they win both, they are through to their first ever world Cup semifinal.. no matter what other results are. 

 

Pakistan - Has the most unlikely of the chances to advance to the next round. If they win both their remaining games against SAF and Ban, they need to pray that atleast one or Ban/Zim beats India... Or somehow Netherlands miraculously beat South Africa. If they lose one more game, they're out. 

 

Zimbabwe - Has a clear path but extremely tough. If they win both their games against Netherlands and India, they will qualify for the SF, unless Bangladesh beats both India and Pakistan. One more defeat and they're out. 

 

 

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Norman

[zen]

2 minutes ago, Norman said:

Bangladesh - Has same points as India but their road is a lot tougher as they have games against India and Pakistan left and also a very very poor NRR. So, if they win only one game of those two, they're most certainly out unless it's a miraculous 80 run win or something. If they win both, they need to pray that Zimbabwe beats India. 

 

If BD wins its remaining games, it would be through ... It does not need to worry about NRR or Zim beating Ind 

 

It plays IND & PAK so if it beats them, other two teams will automatically have less points 

[Norman]

All in all, I'd say chances of qualification are -

 

 

South Africa - 90%

India - 70%

Bangladesh - 33%

Pakistan - 16%

Zimbabwe - 5%

[Norman]

2 minutes ago, zen said:

 

If BD wins its remaining games, it would be through ... It does not need to worry about NRR or Zim beating Ind 

 

It plays IND & PAK so if it beats them, other two teams will automatically have less points 

 

 

Oops my bad.. thanks for pointing out. 

 

Let me edit that. 

[nitinbwj]

BC.. Our openers are so shitty that we are fearing Ban ffs.. Plus the frauds that we are carrying. SKY may not fire against Bangla. 

DK, Pandya, KL...  Frauds have come to the party. Play Pant 

[Lord]

What about rain?

[Norman]

Adelaide has 60% rain throughout the game against Bangladesh.

 

 

 

If that gets rained out, then we're in a must win scenario against Zimbabwe but the game is in Melbourne so it could get hit by fukcing rain again

[Norman]

If both our games gets rained out, then we'll have to pray that South Africa defeats Pakistan and Pakistan beat Bangladesh. 

 

Or

 

Both those games getting rained out as well. 

[zen]

23 minutes ago, Norman said:

South Africa already has one foot in the semi final - unless they lose to Pakistan and their Netherlands game gets washed out (highly unlikely) 

 

In that scenario too, SA would have 6 points so favorite to go through 

 

PS If SA were to miss out in the scenario you quoted, IND/BD & IND/ZIM  would likely qualify 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by zen

[Number]

How is the forecast for our next 2 games.

[Lord]

Want Zim to qualify somehow

 

[Norman]

11 minutes ago, Number said:

How is the forecast for our next 2 games.

 

It's actually okay against Zimbabwe at the MCG but it's still a week away so can change anytime

 

 

Adelaide game against Bangladesh is looking really dodgy. 60% rain constant throughout the day. 

 

Can work both ways. If we get a shortened game, then we are big time favorites as Bangladesh doesn't have the firepower.

[Norman]

18 minutes ago, zen said:

 

In that scenario too, SA would have 6 points so favorite to go through 

 

PS If SA were to miss out in the scenario you quoted, IND/BD & IND/ZIM  would likely qualify 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah that's why I said highly unlikely. Their NRR is too good. 

[Norman]

13 minutes ago, Lord said:

Want Zim to qualify somehow

 

 

Really them losing today to Toygers was a blessing in disguise for us. Or else they would have ended with 7 points (win against Ned) and we would have been under immense pressure to win both our games. 

[Number]

6 minutes ago, Norman said:

 

It's actually okay against Zimbabwe at the MCG but it's still a week away so can change anytime

 

 

Adelaide game against Bangladesh is looking really dodgy. 60% rain constant throughout the day. 

 

Can work both ways. If we get a shortened game, then we are big time favorites as Bangladesh doesn't have the firepower.

 

Yeah BD one looks scary.. 

 

[Autonomous]

Basically now we have to win next 2 and need BD winning against India

[zen]

To make it simple:

 

Assume SA qualifies with 6-9 points 

 

Ignoring NRR, IF

 

BD wins its remaining games, 8 points

IND wins its remaining games, 8 points

ZIM wins its remaining games, 7 points

Pak wins its remaining games, 6 points 

 

 

Win 1, lose 1 

 

BD, 6 points

IND, 6 points

ZIM, 5 points

PAK, 4 points

 

[Lord]

4 minutes ago, Norman said:

 

Really them losing today to Toygers was a blessing in disguise for us. Or else they would have ended with 7 points (win against Ned) and we would have been under immense pressure to win both our games. 

then India and Zim would have qualified with Poyzz beating SA

[BacktoCricaddict]

24 minutes ago, Lord said:

Want Zim to qualify somehow

 

 

 Nossir ... because, given that SA is virtually in, Zim qualifying would be at India's expense. 

[Norman]

5 minutes ago, Lord said:

then India and Zim would have qualified with Poyzz beating SA

 

Nah.. SAF would beat Netherlands and finish at 7 which is enough thanks to their gigantic NRR. In that case, we would go through, unless we bottled up against Bangladesh.