Should Bumrah really start in our first choice attack?

[express bowling]

5 hours ago, Nikhil_cric said:

After his initially back injury in 2019, there have been doubts about Bumrah's efficacy and his pace has declined from then.

 

He is an extremely brilliant bowler when there is swing on offer up front. At the Oval last year and against Pakistan in Asia Cup under lights,  he was hooping it around corners.

 

 

But the recent thrashing at the hands of Marsh and co., brought back some old suspicions . So, let us look at his record in Indian conditions against top sides( OZ, NZ, ENG, SA) since the last World Cup. 

 

 

Admittedly, the sample size is small but let's look at it phase wise.

 

In PP

 

Bowling strike rates

 

Bumrah - no wickets

Siraj - 36

Shami - 44

Pandya - 27

Prasidh -30

Thakur - no wickets 

 

 

Middle overs

 

Bowling Strike rates

 

Pandya -30

Thakur -24

Shami - 21.14

Prasidh - 22.8

Siraj -17.6

Kuldeep - 34

Jadeja -41

Bumrah -54

Ash - 22.5

 

Now some of these sample sizes are not big admittedly , so let us consider Bumrah's record against top sides (these sides + PAK ) in countries outside India in this World Cup cycle and do it phase wise

 

PP phase strike rate

 

Bumrah - 51 ( 5 out of 6 wickets at                           Oval or vs PAK in                              Asia Cup)

 

 

Middle overs strike rate 

 

Bumrah -41

Pandya -24

Shami -24

Thakur - 30

Kuldeep - 20.57

 

 

Even that 41 strike has 2 wickets at the Oval and were tailenders iirc And the remaining 3 wickets he has taken were at a strike rate even higher than what he takes to strike in India.

 

 

Now, let's look at the death overs against these teams . Wickets dont matter as much at the death as much as economy rate. You can take 2 wickets in the last over of an innings and they would be absolutely useless. Wickets are much more valuable the earlier they are taken.

 

Death overs economy rates in this World Cup cycle vs Top 6 sides. 

 

Siraj - 5.21

Jadeja -6

Prasidh - 6.11

Pandya -6.18

Bumrah -6.39

Kuldeep -6.86

Shami - 8.46

Shardul - 10.65 

 

 

The 6 bowler theory is an absolute fraud theory anyway and only absolute clowns like Indian TM and their cheerleaders would believe in that cricketing equivalent of a Hans 

Christian Andersen fairytale.

 

It basically allows dumb decisions like bowling too much of Shami and Shardul at the death while bowling our least wicket taking bowler through the middle and allowing huge scores like the 3rd ODI vs Australia. 

 

And while Im a massive critic of Jadeja, it would be disingenuous and intellectually dishonest of me to not call out Bumrah as well despite being a big fan of the Boom. 

 

The Oval ODI saw the highest swing in an Oval ODI in the last 10 years according to Cricviz analysis of ball tracking data. 

 

 

Sadly, even with the new kookaburra , that swing isn't always guaranteed. 

 

Without that new ball swing, he is not only neutered in the PP but his threat in the middle overs is worse than Jadeja .

 

And it's probably not worth picking him just for his economical death bowling especially when most of us have, fatalistically , accepted that Jadeja is going to be a reality no matter what and we need Shardul as cover for a few runs and our proper batting stops at 5.

 

Unless conditions are favourable for bowling , the first XI attack should probably be

 

 

Pandya

Jadeja 

Shardul

Kuldeep

Siraj

Shami 

 

With Bumrah only coming in to rotate against the minnows pr to replace Shami if we are certain there's going to be significant help for the new ball. 

 

Edit : All data from Cricmetric filter

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.  These stats are based on very few games as far as Bumrah is concerned 

 

2. Many of those few games have been low profile ones where he has bowled within himself and the purpose of playing was to develop match fitness. A good example being the 3rd ODI vs Australia.

 

Analysing stats, which include quite a few such low profile games, where the player being analysed is is not playing with full intensity, invariably leads to incorrect conclusions.

 

3.  Apart from.Bumrah, all our other pacers are not dependable as death bowlers. Bumrah is needed for death bowling alone, if not for anything else. 

 

4.  After coming back from injury in December 2019, Bumrah has bowled many many 140 k to 147 k spells, topping out at 149 k. In the 2017 to 2019 period, Bumrah was touching 150 k on occasions. So, the drop in pace was not significant.

 

After coming back in 2023, he has not bowled full throttle yet. So, we will have to see where he stands regarding pace. Can't come to a conclusion yet.

 

Negatives ....  The biggest difference I see in Bumrah's bowling  (  starting mid 2022 when he started developing back issues ) is that he isn't hitting the deck as hard as early 2016 to early 2022 period. 

 

He used to bowl a very heavy ball till May 2022.  Used to hit the bat very hard and high. But haven't seen it since then, albeit in very few matches.

 

From June 2022,  he looks good only when the ball is moving. He is interested in swinging the ball primarily. This is a big concern for me.  I hope Bumrah starts hitting the deck hard again.

 

P.S ....  Bumrah's rhythm has not been that good after he twisted his ankle in the Asia Cup final.  I hope he has not developed a foot issue that he is unable to treat due to the upcoming WC. 

Edited September 30, 2023 by express bowling

[Sean Bradley]

Stats doesn't always state facts. The OP is a perfect example of this one.

 

Not like we have Marshalls and Thompson's waiting on the bench. One bad outing on a patta doesn't take away the fact that Bumrah is a man with Wicket taking ability, both with new ball, old ball and in the middle overs.

 

Hes been successful on the same pattas in the IPL, OP has completely ignored the fact that he coming after a long layoff post injury. Whatever we saw in the Asia Cup and the warm ups, points only in one direction. 

 

Bumrah should be the man running in with that new ball come the match day on 8th October.

Edited September 30, 2023 by Sean Bradley

[Lord]

@Laaloo note this like you sneakily noted my post

[Lord]

Perfect example of overanalysis.

[express bowling]

9 minutes ago, Lord said:

Perfect example of overanalysis.

 

These days bilateral LOIs are not taken that seriously by big players. Top players often play without intensity.  Whereas many middling players and also-rans play their heart out and perform in these games against disinterested top players.

 

But come the big matches and big tournaments, the big players become different beasts. And shut out these mediocre players who get spots due to stats based selections generated primarily from low profile games.

 

This has been a big issue regarding LOIs and their team selections for the last few years. 

[vvvslaxman]

India is going to have 3 solid tail (Bumrah/Siraj/Kuldeep). We can do nothing about it. So top 8 has to cover them.

[Rightarmfast]

I am sorry, but this is same as saying lets remove the king from the chess board because it hardly moves. 

You dont take off the champion from your team. Bumrah ki bowling se nahi, Bumrah ke naam se opposition ki 'fatati' hai. 

Over 'anal'ysis, like someone mentioned before.

[Norman]

 

 

[MK55]

I doubt he’s gonna bowl at the speeds he was bowling 2-3 years back in the World Cup. I think he definitely still has got it him to bowl that way if he wants to but he’s just cautious.

He’s more intent on skill based bowling these days. And once you get in that mindset, you don’t really go all out and lose the fluency/ability to consistent bowl with that high intensity.

Having said all that, there is absolutely no doubt he deserves to be in the side. Not just that but as the prime bowler. 

Edited September 30, 2023 by MK55

[Nikhil_cric]

2 hours ago, express bowling said:

 

 

1.  These stats are based on very few games as far as Bumrah is concerned 

 

2. Many of those few games have been low profile ones where he has bowled within himself and the purpose of playing was to develop match fitness. A good example being the 3rd ODI vs Australia.

 

Analysing stats, which include quite a few such low profile games, where the player being analysed is is not playing with full intensity, invariably leads to incorrect conclusions.

 

3.  Apart from.Bumrah, all our other pacers are not dependable as death bowlers. Bumrah is needed for death bowling alone, if not for anything else. 

 

4.  After coming back from injury in December 2019, Bumrah has bowled many many 140 k to 147 k spells, topping out at 149 k. In the 2017 to 2019 period, Bumrah was touching 150 k on occasions. So, the drop in pace was not significant.

 

After coming back in 2023, he has not bowled full throttle yet. So, we will have to see where he stands regarding pace. Can't come to a conclusion yet.

 

Negatives ....  The biggest difference I see in Bumrah's bowling  (  starting mid 2022 when he started developing back issues ) is that he isn't hitting the deck as hard as early 2016 to early 2022 period. 

 

He used to bowl a very heavy ball till May 2022.  Used to hit the bat very hard and high. But haven't seen it since then, albeit in very few matches.

 

From June 2022,  he looks good only when the ball is moving. He is interested in swinging the ball primarily. This is a big concern for me.  I hope Bumrah starts hitting the deck hard again.

 

P.S ....  Bumrah's rhythm has not been that good after he twisted his ankle in the Asia Cup final.  I hope he has not developed a foot issue that he is unable to treat due to the upcoming WC. 

It's not just in ODIs. The sample is actually bigger than that. 

 

When we toured South Africa in 2021/22, it was pointed out that whenever Bumrah bowled full or short , his effectiveness was not the same as it used to be pre -injury.

 

Now, he's comeback from another injury, I think it's worth looking at.

 

This is the article showing that 

 

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/south-africa-vs-india-3rd-test-the-jasprit-bumrah-bouncer-why-has-it-lost-its-bite-1296106

 

His short of a length stuff was getting easier to hit even then. He can't hit the deck with the force he used to earlier and not quick enough to bowl full and attack.

 

He's certainly not the bowler from 2017-2019.

 

If you remember in the Asia Cup, he was bowling well when there was movement upfront. 

 

But once brought back, one of the SL batters hit him a bit and Rohit took him out of the attack and brought back Hardik .

 

 

His extreme wrist flexibility allows him to bend the ball back in sharply when there is swing on offer. 

 

 

 

 

[Chaos]

7 hours ago, Nikhil_cric said:

After his initially back injury in 2019, there have been doubts about Bumrah's efficacy and his pace has declined from then.

 

He is an extremely brilliant bowler when there is swing on offer up front. At the Oval last year and against Pakistan in Asia Cup under lights,  he was hooping it around corners.

 

 

But the recent thrashing at the hands of Marsh and co., brought back some old suspicions . So, let us look at his record in Indian conditions against top sides( OZ, NZ, ENG, SA) since the last World Cup. 

 

 

Admittedly, the sample size is small but let's look at it phase wise.

 

In PP

 

Bowling strike rates

 

Bumrah - no wickets

Siraj - 36

Shami - 44

Pandya - 27

Prasidh -30

Thakur - no wickets 

 

 

Middle overs

 

Bowling Strike rates

 

Pandya -30

Thakur -24

Shami - 21.14

Prasidh - 22.8

Siraj -17.6

Kuldeep - 34

Jadeja -41

Bumrah -54

Ash - 22.5

 

Now some of these sample sizes are not big admittedly , so let us consider Bumrah's record against top sides (these sides + PAK ) in countries outside India in this World Cup cycle and do it phase wise

 

PP phase strike rate

 

Bumrah - 51 ( 5 out of 6 wickets at                           Oval or vs PAK in                              Asia Cup)

 

 

Middle overs strike rate 

 

Bumrah -41

Pandya -24

Shami -24

Thakur - 30

Kuldeep - 20.57

 

 

Even that 41 strike has 2 wickets at the Oval and were tailenders iirc And the remaining 3 wickets he has taken were at a strike rate even higher than what he takes to strike in India.

 

 

Now, let's look at the death overs against these teams . Wickets dont matter as much at the death as much as economy rate. You can take 2 wickets in the last over of an innings and they would be absolutely useless. Wickets are much more valuable the earlier they are taken.

 

Death overs economy rates in this World Cup cycle vs Top 6 sides. 

 

Siraj - 5.21

Jadeja -6

Prasidh - 6.11

Pandya -6.18

Bumrah -6.39

Kuldeep -6.86

Shami - 8.46

Shardul - 10.65 

 

 

The 6 bowler theory is an absolute fraud theory anyway and only absolute clowns like Indian TM and their cheerleaders would believe in that cricketing equivalent of a Hans 

Christian Andersen fairytale.

 

It basically allows dumb decisions like bowling too much of Shami and Shardul at the death while bowling our least wicket taking bowler through the middle and allowing huge scores like the 3rd ODI vs Australia. 

 

And while Im a massive critic of Jadeja, it would be disingenuous and intellectually dishonest of me to not call out Bumrah as well despite being a big fan of the Boom. 

 

The Oval ODI saw the highest swing in an Oval ODI in the last 10 years according to Cricviz analysis of ball tracking data. 

 

 

Sadly, even with the new kookaburra , that swing isn't always guaranteed. 

 

Without that new ball swing, he is not only neutered in the PP but his threat in the middle overs is worse than Jadeja .

 

And it's probably not worth picking him just for his economical death bowling especially when most of us have, fatalistically , accepted that Jadeja is going to be a reality no matter what and we need Shardul as cover for a few runs and our proper batting stops at 5.

 

Unless conditions are favourable for bowling , the first XI attack should probably be

 

 

Pandya

Jadeja 

Shardul

Kuldeep

Siraj

Shami 

 

With Bumrah only coming in to rotate against the minnows pr to replace Shami if we are certain there's going to be significant help for the new ball. 

 

Edit : All data from Cricmetric filter

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i understand u been smoking some good kush and to stay awake to watch games, u snorting coco. But brain functions have been lost. No bowler other than siraj would be better than bumrah. Rest of the bowlers are embarrassing like thakur and this thread.

Edited September 30, 2023 by Chaos

[Nikhil_cric]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

i understand u been smoking some good kush and to stay awake to watch games, u snorting coco. But brain functions have been lost. No bowler other than siraj would be better than bumrah. Rest of the bowlers are embarrassing like thakur and this thread.

True. Brain ain't functioning like it used to. Reading posts on ICF like these can cause cognitive dysfunction I suppose.

[SRT_1OO]

Ohhh pluseee... STFU PeePaasion Slave. 

 

Aint nobody gonna give you a Post of the week PeePassion award for wring paragraphs of crap on ICF

Edited September 30, 2023 by SRT_1OO

[Chaos]

6 hours ago, Nikhil_cric said:

True. Brain ain't functioning like it used to. Reading posts on ICF like these can cause cognitive dysfunction I suppose.

I bet my brother. Better than puku passion right? They think they world champions with their phooost bowlers who get rapeddd by aussies and anyone else.

 

i understand ur frustration, age and all this ya know?? :)