Should Bumrah really start in our first choice attack?

[Nikhil_cric]

After his initially back injury in 2019, there have been doubts about Bumrah's efficacy and his pace has declined from then.

 

He is an extremely brilliant bowler when there is swing on offer up front. At the Oval last year and against Pakistan in Asia Cup under lights,  he was hooping it around corners.

 

 

But the recent thrashing at the hands of Marsh and co., brought back some old suspicions . So, let us look at his record in Indian conditions against top sides( OZ, NZ, ENG, SA) since the last World Cup. 

 

 

Admittedly, the sample size is small but let's look at it phase wise.

 

In PP

 

Bowling strike rates

 

Bumrah - no wickets

Siraj - 36

Shami - 44

Pandya - 27

Prasidh -30

Thakur - no wickets 

 

 

Middle overs

 

Bowling Strike rates

 

Pandya -30

Thakur -24

Shami - 21.14

Prasidh - 22.8

Siraj -17.6

Kuldeep - 34

Jadeja -41

Bumrah -54

Ash - 22.5

 

Now some of these sample sizes are not big admittedly , so let us consider Bumrah's record against top sides (these sides + PAK ) in countries outside India in this World Cup cycle and do it phase wise

 

PP phase strike rate

 

Bumrah - 51 ( 5 out of 6 wickets at                           Oval or vs PAK in                              Asia Cup)

 

 

Middle overs strike rate 

 

Bumrah -41

Pandya -24

Shami -24

Thakur - 30

Kuldeep - 20.57

 

 

Even that 41 strike has 2 wickets at the Oval and were tailenders iirc And the remaining 3 wickets he has taken were at a strike rate even higher than what he takes to strike in India.

 

 

Now, let's look at the death overs against these teams . Wickets dont matter as much at the death as much as economy rate. You can take 2 wickets in the last over of an innings and they would be absolutely useless. Wickets are much more valuable the earlier they are taken.

 

Death overs economy rates in this World Cup cycle vs Top 6 sides. 

 

Siraj - 5.21

Jadeja -6

Prasidh - 6.11

Pandya -6.18

Bumrah -6.39

Kuldeep -6.86

Shami - 8.46

Shardul - 10.65 

 

 

The 6 bowler theory is an absolute fraud theory anyway and only absolute clowns like Indian TM and their cheerleaders would believe in that cricketing equivalent of a Hans 

Christian Andersen fairytale.

 

It basically allows dumb decisions like bowling too much of Shami and Shardul at the death while bowling our least wicket taking bowler through the middle and allowing huge scores like the 3rd ODI vs Australia. 

 

And while Im a massive critic of Jadeja, it would be disingenuous and intellectually dishonest of me to not call out Bumrah as well despite being a big fan of the Boom. 

 

The Oval ODI saw the highest swing in an Oval ODI in the last 10 years according to Cricviz analysis of ball tracking data. 

 

 

Sadly, even with the new kookaburra , that swing isn't always guaranteed. 

 

Without that new ball swing, he is not only neutered in the PP but his threat in the middle overs is worse than Jadeja .

 

And it's probably not worth picking him just for his economical death bowling especially when most of us have, fatalistically , accepted that Jadeja is going to be a reality no matter what and we need Shardul as cover for a few runs and our proper batting stops at 5.

 

Unless conditions are favourable for bowling , the first XI attack should probably be

 

 

Pandya

Jadeja 

Shardul

Kuldeep

Siraj

Shami 

 

With Bumrah only coming in to rotate against the minnows pr to replace Shami if we are certain there's going to be significant help for the new ball. 

 

Edit : All data from Cricmetric filter

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Nikhil_cric

[vvvslaxman]

He will start. He can bowl 9 crap overs. But in one over he can neutralize all.

[Nikhil_cric]

3 minutes ago, vvvslaxman said:

He will start. He can bowl 9 crap overs. But in one over he can neutralize all.

If that one comes in the 48th over of the innings, what's the point? I would rather have Shami who could probably give me wickets earlier.

 

Wickets at the back end are massively overrated.   The value of a wicket keeps decreasing as an innings progresses. 

 

 

[BacktoCricaddict]

Excellent OP!

 

Not having the ability or desire to mine cricket data indepth, here are some armwaving comments

 

1. A confounding factor is that through the last 4 yrs, time Bumrah was oft injured and playing multiple formats, never at his best, never hitting a good rhythm .Now that he is ( fingers crossed) injury free and well rested, things could be different. He could go all out and wreak havoc. I have this hope

 

2. Is he a rhythm bowler and the 2-match layoff affected him in the 3rd against the Aussies? Or was he just not unleashing his full repertoire? I don't know. I didn't watch. But I would like to disregard that performance even though it's on the record..

 

Perhaps rotating him with Shami and having Siraj and Pandys as the constants would be a viable option. 

 

[TrueAllRounder]

Bumrah hasn't played mich and it isn't about statistics with Bumrah. He has been pulled back because of his skill. If he plays ODIs consistently , you will see better number

[vvvslaxman]

14 minutes ago, Nikhil_cric said:

If that one comes in the 48th over of the innings, what's the point? I would rather have Shami who could probably give me wickets earlier.

 

Wickets at the back end are massively overrated.   The value of a wicket keeps decreasing as an innings progresses. 

 

 

 

Given our woeful bowling in death where teams can pile up 100 runs towards the death we will struggle every match without him. If there is one guy who can snuff out tail that is  Bumrah.

[kubrickian]

On patta wickets in India, you could be Dennis Lillee, Steyn, Marshall rolled into one and still you will get knocked out like cannon fodder. 

[AuxiliA]

Our death bowling has sucked big time for the last year or so. Bumrah's absence being the main reason. We would have won last year's T20 Asia Cup if we had him.

 

Even on his bad days Bumrah is still our most dependable death bowler by some margin. The guy you would pick to bowl the super over. And you want him dropped lol.

 

 

 

 

[Nikhil_cric]

11 minutes ago, vvvslaxman said:

 

Given our woeful bowling in death where teams can pile up 100 runs towards the death we will struggle every match without him. If there is one guy who can snuff out tail that is  Bumrah.

Bumrah is only 1 bowler. And he will bowl max. 3-4 overs at the death.

 

Take the first ODI of the India -Australia series

 

We had them at 187/5 at the end of 40 overs. 

Bumrah bowled 3 overs and conceded 16 runs at the death. 

 

 

The remaining 7 overs still conceded 78 runs because we were forced to bowl Shami and Thakur at the death.  

 

And if you see above , Thakur and Shami are absolutely the worst death bowlers we have. 

 

Mind you, in this match we only played 5 bowlers and had SKY coming in at 6

 

 

And that's what allowed us to chase anyway. 

 

Going by this nonsense, fantasy combination we are likely to play, we won't have that luxury of SKY coming in at 6.

 

So, playing that extra bowler would have been useless as it always is. 

 

And we saw that in the 3rd ODI as well. 

 

Bumrah gave only 19 runs off 3 overs.

 

But the remaining 7 overs went for 47 runs.

 

And this was only because Australia had Cummins at the crease at 8 . Come the World Cup, they could very well have batting until 8

 

 

 

[Gollum]

Though I don't agree with OP, that is some nice analysis. 

 

Anyway we don't have one reliable death overs specialist in the absence of Bumrah. Final 10, 100 to get, Stokes and Livingstone on strike, I would rather Bumrah have 3-4 overs in his kitty. 

 

More concerned about his ability to handle nerves, even in Asia Cup final he looked off colour while Siraj blew them away. 

[Nikhil_cric]

6 minutes ago, AuxiliA said:

Our death bowling has sucked big time for the last year or so. Bumrah's absence being the main reason. We would have won last year's T20 Asia Cup if we had him.

 

Even on his bad days Bumrah is still our most dependable death bowler by some margin. The guy you would pick to bowl the super over. And you want him dropped lol.

 

 

 

 

So, we should pick him in all matches for the 3 overs at the death he gives us , ignoring the other 7 overs of his spell where he has been struggling somewhat. 

 

Bumrah will anyway not play all the matches. His body is not likely to hold up.

 

But against the 4 lower sides and in conditions likely to help movement, he absolutely starts considering his extremely flexible wrist will get sharp swing will get wickets in PP and kill the match then and there.

 

But on a flat track, when we are already a batsman light and we insist on playing a fraud at 7 no matter what , I'm not sure he is part of the best combination.

 

This is no slight on Bumrah but Shami and Siraj and Pandya have simply been better for the 1st 40 overs and Shardul in the middle overs. 

 

So it's definitely up for debate.

 

 

 

[vvvslaxman]

5 minutes ago, Nikhil_cric said:

Bumrah is only 1 bowler. And he will bowl max. 3-4 overs at the death.

 

Take the first ODI of the India -Australia series

 

We had them at 187/5 at the end of 40 overs. 

Bumrah bowled 3 overs and conceded 16 runs at the death. 

 

 

The remaining 7 overs still conceded 78 runs because we were forced to bowl Shami and Thakur at the death.  

 

And if you see above , Thakur and Shami are absolutely the worst death bowlers we have. 

 

Mind you, in this match we only played 5 bowlers and had SKY coming in at 6

 

 

And that's what allowed us to chase anyway. 

 

Going by this nonsense, fantasy combination we are likely to play, we won't have that luxury of SKY coming in at 6.

 

So, playing that extra bowler would have been useless as it always is. 

 

And we saw that in the 3rd ODI as well. 

 

Bumrah gave only 19 runs off 3 overs.

 

But the remaining 7 overs went for 47 runs.

 

And this was only because Australia had Cummins at the crease at 8 . Come the World Cup, they could very well have batting until 8

 

 

 

3rd ODI Bumrah was bowling at 133 kph. well within himself. He came back really well in the last 5 overs. Bit like how Siraj was taken apart by Nepal. . We do not have a threat factor without him. I don't trust even peak Shami let alone current Shami. He is a massive double edge sword. On a bad day he can leak both upfront and in the backend. Sheer absence of Bumrah will lift the opposition big time.  Each bowler has a role. Besides Pandya is not exactly a reliably fit bowler. So Shami should be in the reserve. Last year at Hyderabad NZ was 131/6. But our Shamis and Pandyas were absolutely canned by bracewell and santner and they almost pulled off a 300 plus chase. 

 

[vvvslaxman]

India's problem is no.7. Other spots are okay.

[Nikhil_cric]

1 minute ago, vvvslaxman said:

3rd ODI Bumrah was bowling at 133 kph. well within himself. He came back really well in the last 5 overs. Bit like how Siraj was taken apart by Nepal. . We do not have a threat factor without him. I don't trust even peak Shami let alone current Shami. He is a massive double edge sword. On a bad day he can leak both upfront and in the backend. Sheer absence of Bumrah will lift the opposition big time.  Each bowler has a role. Besides Pandya is not exactly a reliably fit bowler. So Shami should be in the reserve. Last year at Hyderabad NZ was 131/6. But our Shamis and Pandyas were absolutely canned by bracewell and santner and they almost pulled off a 300 plus chase. 

 

I've already said that Shami is a poor death bowler. Never said otherwise. 

 

But in the examples I've shown you, death bowling is massively overrated. 

 

Especially with our revolutionary bowling heavy balance, a team like Australia who can stack the batting with Maxwell coming in at #8, we need to take atleast 7 wickets befire the death overs begins. 

 

Because Bumrah wont bowl more than 3 . And the other 7 overs are going to get destroyed if there is at least one batter/batting allrounder there. 

 

And then we'll have to chase with 5 batsmen+ Pandya. 

[nitinbwj]

Bumrah has the ability to take out the top order alongwith Siraj.The,,its up to spinners and Pandya to do the damage. Shami if attacked doesn't have a backup plan. He doesnt have a slower one or other variations. Bumrah has all those variations. People talking about Indore match. Cummins and Starc were taken apart for more than 7.5 runs an over and had Maxwell not picked up wickets,they would have gone for 90+

 

So Aus should drop them ...kuch bhi  

[vvvslaxman]

Just now, Nikhil_cric said:

I've already said that Shami is a poor death bowler. Never said otherwise. 

 

But in the examples I've shown you, death bowling is massively overrated. 

 

Especially with our revolutionary bowling heavy balance, a team like Australia who can stack the batting with Maxwell coming in at #8, we need to take atleast 7 wickets befire the death overs begins. 

 

Because Bumrah wont bowl more than 3 . And the other 7 overs are going to get destroyed if there is at least one batter/batting allrounder there. 

 

And then we'll have to chase with 5 batsmen+ Pandya. 

 

SENA teams are the only threat. He has the best numbers aainst them in the last couple of years. On a good day he can run through a side

 

Against SENA Indain fast bowlers last 2 year. They may even drop Rohit defnitely not Bumrah. He and Kuldeep are Rohit's main weapons 

 

 

[vvvslaxman]

India's only way can go for 7+4 is when the no.7 is actually a proper no.7.

[Nikhil_cric]

7 minutes ago, nitinbwj said:

Bumrah has the ability to take out the top order alongwith Siraj.The,,its up to spinners and Pandya to do the damage. Shami if attacked doesn't have a backup plan. He doesnt have a slower one or other variations. Bumrah has all those variations. People talking about Indore match. Cummins and Starc were taken apart for more than 7.5 runs an over and had Maxwell not picked up wickets,they would have gone for 90+

 

So Aus should drop them ...kuch bhi  

Absolutely agree with this .

 

But you know what ? There's only 1 solution for all that. Drop Jadeja get Prasidh in the squad , play the extra batter and get part time spin. 

 

Do you see any of that happening? :)

 

Let's not get too carried away by Australia's bowling . Even they know their bowling sucks. But come semis they will probably play

 

Travis Head

Warner

Marsh

Smith

Marnus

Green

Carey/Inglis

Maxwell

Zampa

Hazlewood

Starc/Cummins

 

No matter what bowlers we throw at them, they will disappear on a flat track . And no matter how bad their support bowlers are, a lineup with fraud at 7 ain't chasing it. 

 

[Adamant]

Good lord.

Things like these happen when you read too many spreadsheets.

 

Icf janta should learn from this and avoid spending too much time on statsguru

[Adamant]

One point I agree with is that Shami and Thakur are the worst death bowlers.

 

Thakur should only bowl in middle overs and no way should we give him 10 overs, what’s the point of that?

 

Bumrah Siraj Kuldeep will bowl 10 each

Pandya Jadeja and Thakur will share the eest of the overs.