India GDP apparently crosses $4Trn mark ( Reports )

[ravishingravi]

Surprisingly quicker than one expected after two years of Covid impact. $5Trn by first qtr of 2025 and $10Trn by end of this decade would not seem that unrealistic. This in ispite of the depreciating rupee which makes it more commendable and inspite of the fact that manufacturing is a laggard.

 

Quality of growth will be critical going forward.

 

https://www.livemint.com/economy/indias-gdp-crosses-4-trillion-for-the-first-time-ranks-4th-worldwide-11700380854754.html

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by ravishingravi

[diga]

4T$ is a huge number. Consumption based economy is not good for environment in the long run for a country like ours with large population & smaller land area. Already seeing the effects on quality of life in India. 

[Trichromatic]

It didn't.

[mishra]

Fake News but not Fully Fake. But seems like its about to

[kepler37b]

On 11/21/2023 at 11:17 AM, diga said:

4T$ is a huge number. Consumption based economy is not good for environment in the long run for a country like ours with large population & smaller land area. Already seeing the effects on quality of life in India. 

As India gets richer, the pressure of limited land will force the folks to migrate away. This is what is happening now. Our genepools will get mixed into western/eastern societies.

 

[Prabhdeep Singh]

This looks good on paper but who is actually getting the money.

 

The revenue is not shared appropriately with the population.

 

The rich is getting richer, the poor is stagnate or getting poorer.

[mishra]

9 hours ago, Prabhdeep Singh said:

This looks good on paper but who is actually getting the money.

 

The revenue is not shared appropriately with the population.

 

The rich is getting richer, the poor is stagnate or getting poorer.

I have seen this arguement thrown around in every country when fact differs. Fact is, if per capita income is increasing it means everyone gets richer unless tax burden is disproportinately increased on middleclass.

[ravishingravi]

35 minutes ago, mishra said:

I have seen this arguement thrown around in every country when fact differs. Fact is, if per capita income is increasing it means everyone gets richer unless tax burden is disproportinately increased on middleclass.

 

GDP per capita is simply arithmletic to be honest. 

 

But in any case rich getting richer argument doesn't make sense. If the pie gets bigger, rich will get richer. Unless it is war torn economy.

[ravishingravi]

On 11/23/2023 at 2:49 AM, kepler37b said:

As India gets richer, the pressure of limited land will force the folks to migrate away. This is what is happening now. Our genepools will get mixed into western/eastern societies.

 

 

This has always been happening and will continue to happen. Its not a question of land mass per se.

[mishra]

18 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

 

GDP per capita is simply arithmletic to be honest. 

 

But in any case rich getting richer argument doesn't make sense. If the pie gets bigger, rich will get richer. Unless it is war torn economy.

No, Since Narsimha Raos days when he opened the Indian economy, people have been making this arguement. What they generally seem to ignore is if prices of Services is increasing , Salaries is increasing, worth of asset is increasing then why wont Rich will get richer. If someone has asset of  100 billion INR and someone has asset of 1 million INR offcouuse 5% rise in asset vallue YoY will mean a lot more to ones owning 100 billion INR.

[Trichromatic]

On 11/24/2023 at 4:17 PM, ravishingravi said:

 

GDP per capita is simply arithmletic to be honest. 

 

But in any case rich getting richer argument doesn't make sense. If the pie gets bigger, rich will get richer. Unless it is war torn economy.

 

When rich getting richer argumet is made, it's not just that pie is getting bigger so size of pie for rich is getting bigger.

 

There is one more argument that share of rich is also increasing. The gap and inequality increasing. 

 

 

 

[ravishingravi]

29 minutes ago, Trichromatic said:

 

When rich getting richer argumet is made, it's not just that pie is getting bigger so size of pie for rich is getting bigger.

 

There is one more argument that share of rich is also increasing. The gap and inequality increasing. 

 

 

 

 

Question is not whether the inequality increases. I am 100% sure it increases. No surprises there. Historically every developing country has been driven by it's elites and rich because they hold the capital. As long as that capital generates wealth through jobs, everyone is better off. Rich get even richer. As they would. 

 

Question is whether poor or non rich get poorer. In US top 1% hold 99% of wealth. Does that make rest of the country poor ? This metric of inequality in isolation doesn't make sense. Key element is to check if lives of people are improving mainly through job creation and govt spending ( by taxing the rich ). 

[rangeelaraja]

In 2000 India's GDP was  ~ $ 476B

By 2025 end India's GDP will be ~ 4.7 T. ( based on most projections  ) ....4.2T by 2024 end ,  and 4.7T by 2025 end.

 

Thats 10X in 25 years .....which is a nominal GDP CAGR of ( 10 ^.04 ) = 9.64 %..  

 

From 2000 to 2025

Despite the 10x in GDP in 25 years  - the % of India's population in the workforce ( adding to productive activities & contributing to GDP ) was much lower,  because of low median age, less no. of women in labor force participation because of cultural constraints....and few other reasons.

 

From 2025 to 2050

In the 25 years post 2025....the % of India's population in the workforce will be at it's peak, more women participating in workforce

...as a result - bare minimum India's economy by 2050 will be 10X what it is in 2025 - which means upwards of $47 trillion dollars.

 

2025-2050 has to be better than 2000-2025 in terms of relative growth.

 

In fact we could achieve 10X in 2047 because of the burgeoning workforce.

 

Being close to $47T  by 2047 ( at the time of our independence centenary ) ....will get us very very close to global no.2 or no.1

 

Few conditions of course:

1) No major wars

2) Rapid industrialization and capacity building to absorb the  burgeoning workforce 

3) Reforms 

4) Internal harmony and NO civil war situation.

 

So long as BJP or a right or far right leaning government governs  - I am LONG India.

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by rangeelaraja

[Muloghonto]

5 minutes ago, rangeelaraja said:

In 2000 India's GDP was  ~ $ 476B

By 2025 end India's GDP will be ~ 4.7 T. ( based on most projections  ) ....4.2T by 2024 end ,  and 4.7T by 2025 end.

 

Thats 10X in 25 years .....which is a nominal GDP CAGR of ( 10 ^.04 ) = 9.64 %..  

 

From 2000 to 2025

Despite the 10x in GDP in 25 years  - the % of India's population in the workforce ( adding to productive activities & contributing to GDP ) was much lower,  because of low median age, less no. of women in labor force participation because of cultural constraints....and few other reasons.

 

From 2025 to 2050

In the 25 years post 2025....the % of India's population in the workforce will be at it's peak, more women participating in workforce

...as a result - bare minimum India's economy by 2050 will be 10X what it is in 2025 - which means upwards of $47 trillion dollars.

 

2025-2050 has to be better than 2000-2025 in terms of relative growth.

 

In fact we could achieve 10X in 2047 because of the burgeoning workforce.

 

Being close to $47T  by 2047 ( at the time of our independence centenary ) ....will get us very very close to global no.2 or no.1

 

Few conditions of course:

1) No major wars

2) Rapid industrialization and capacity building to absorb the  burgeoning workforce 

3) Reforms 

4) Internal harmony and NO civil war situation.

 

So long as BJP or a right or far right leaning government governs  - I am LONG India.

 

 

Have we figured out the worth of the 'invisible, informal economy' and added it to the GDP figures yet ? I remember 20 years ago, it was commonplace wisdom that the informal sector was 1-1.5x the size of the formal economy. 

 

[ravishingravi]

10 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

 

Have we figured out the worth of the 'invisible, informal economy' and added it to the GDP figures yet ? I remember 20 years ago, it was commonplace wisdom that the informal sector was 1-1.5x the size of the formal economy. 

 

 

Post Demonetization, I don't believe there is much of informal to speak for. 

[ravishingravi]

10 hours ago, rangeelaraja said:

In 2000 India's GDP was  ~ $ 476B

By 2025 end India's GDP will be ~ 4.7 T. ( based on most projections  ) ....4.2T by 2024 end ,  and 4.7T by 2025 end.

 

Thats 10X in 25 years .....which is a nominal GDP CAGR of ( 10 ^.04 ) = 9.64 %..  

 

From 2000 to 2025

Despite the 10x in GDP in 25 years  - the % of India's population in the workforce ( adding to productive activities & contributing to GDP ) was much lower,  because of low median age, less no. of women in labor force participation because of cultural constraints....and few other reasons.

 

From 2025 to 2050

In the 25 years post 2025....the % of India's population in the workforce will be at it's peak, more women participating in workforce

...as a result - bare minimum India's economy by 2050 will be 10X what it is in 2025 - which means upwards of $47 trillion dollars.

 

2025-2050 has to be better than 2000-2025 in terms of relative growth.

 

In fact we could achieve 10X in 2047 because of the burgeoning workforce.

 

Being close to $47T  by 2047 ( at the time of our independence centenary ) ....will get us very very close to global no.2 or no.1

 

Few conditions of course:

1) No major wars

2) Rapid industrialization and capacity building to absorb the  burgeoning workforce 

3) Reforms 

4) Internal harmony and NO civil war situation.

 

So long as BJP or a right or far right leaning government governs  - I am LONG India.

 

 

As Amit shah keeps saying , elections is about arithmetic and chemistry. Arithmetic projection for India's GDP is good. But chemistry will also matter. 

 

1) Manufacturing sector. This has to get amplified and multiple reforms will be needed including labour laws. 

 

2) R&D and Innovation - Country has limited to no aptitude for spending on innovation. This will be to staying ahead of the game. 

 

3) Retain great talent. Slowly revise reservation to one based on economic status. 

 

4) Bihar / Punjab / WB / end of story. 

 

5) Impact of social media and mental health will play a critical role for the youth. Productivity is alarmingly low. 

 

6) Tax reforms simplified and transparent govt spending. 

 

7) Need atleast 25 smart cities spread across the country. 5 cuties cannot drive the GDP of this country. 

 

8) Quality of growth. Unabated growth not balanced with environmental impact could have very negative impact. 

[Trichromatic]

 

 

[Trichromatic]

Didn't know that WB and Kerala were growing at that rate. Going by social media, it felt like WB and Kerala were at -ve rate.

[rangeelaraja]

On 11/26/2023 at 3:40 PM, Muloghonto said:

 

Have we figured out the worth of the 'invisible, informal economy' and added it to the GDP figures yet ? I remember 20 years ago, it was commonplace wisdom that the informal sector was 1-1.5x the size of the formal economy. 

 

 

its not how like it used to be in an economy that has become radically relatively cashless, especially in urban India ( which did also have a massive informal economy )

 

The informal economy  as % of  formal economy  is substantially lower than what it was pre 2014.