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Trump Presidential Watch (2025-2028)

ravishingravi

By ravishingravi
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Muloghonto Grand Master

Muloghonto

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, G_B_ said:

 

Mostly what will happen is that in a geopoltical world of protectionalism many will move manufacturing to india to serve the local market. Focus will be to manufucture all what india consumes.

 

I think you are also missing the underlying trend. There are many union members in the rust belt of the usa who are for this move. These people are tradional democrat voters who have shifted to Trump. Biden too levied a lot of tarrifs on China. Chinese exported via other countries. Trump went one step further. If factory jobs return to the mid west in the next 4 years, nobody is going to roll anything back. 

 

Trump wants to raise money via tariffs and efficiency in gov. He wants to stimulate by cutting taxes. This is a 2 to 3 years strategy. If he is successful, dems wont reverse it. I read somewhere that Trump wants to put 15k extra into each household in the usa via tax cuts.

 

 

Factory jobs won't return to mid west or to western nations, period. Because westerners ate uncompetitive with wage handicap. 

The standard assembly line worker on usa or Canadian car industry makes 30 bucks an hour. That's 2400 rupees per hour to stand there, holding a screw gun, going ziiiip ziiip ziiip every 2 minutes as car bodies pass in front of you on conveyor. 

So unless west is willing to pay 10 bucks an hour for mfg jobs, mfg is not returning to the west. 

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

Factory jobs won't return to mid west or to western nations, period. Because westerners ate uncompetitive with wage handicap. 

The standard assembly line worker on usa or Canadian car industry makes 30 bucks an hour. That's 2400 rupees per hour to stand there, holding a screw gun, going ziiiip ziiip ziiip every 2 minutes as car bodies pass in front of you on conveyor. 

So unless west is willing to pay 10 bucks an hour for mfg jobs, mfg is not returning to the west. 

 

I think the typical car in usa is like 55k usd.

 

At that price point 30 usd per hour sustainable. 

 

Lets say company A produces 100 cars to sell in the usa. Prior they made 10 cars in usa and 90 in asia. But due to Trump geopolitics they now make 30 in usa and 70 in asia. This is the sort of redistribution trump is targetting.

 

Trump knows only a % of factory jobs can return.

 

Muloghonto Grand Master

Muloghonto

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

 

I think the typical car in usa is like 55k usd.

 

At that price point 30 usd per hour sustainable. 

 

Lets say company A produces 100 cars to sell in the usa. Prior they made 10 cars in usa and 90 in asia. But due to Trump geopolitics they now make 30 in usa and 70 in asia. This is the sort of redistribution trump is targetting.

 

Trump knows only a % of factory jobs can return.

 


Uhh...that seems wrong. I dont follow car industry, but from what i know from friends working in it, the average best-seller car should be around 30-40G max as that has been the standard price point for the mommy-mobiles/pickup truck base models in USA.


At the end of the day, the economics of manufacturing, in bold strokes, has remained simple for the last 100 years or even longer : your biggest cost is capital investment (ie make factory), your second biggest cost is labour wage, your teriary cost is power and it better be in single digit %-wise for costs if you want to be viable.
This metrics has more or less held and holds even today and simple reality is, american labour wage = 4x-7x similar labour wage in manufacturing for same skill jobs for all levels of Fabrication( not design, which are done by engineers, who in india-china re still cheaper but not 4-7x cheaper than in murrica for competitive quality ones).

 

You can try all the solutions you wish, but as long as country A has 4-5x labour cost disadvantage to country B in manufacturing sector wages, country A will never be able to compete in same manufacturing process. Period.

Trump can make minor changes and bring some manufacturing back to USA but what he is likely to do, in this case, is re-create the disaster of protectionist economy and create substandard maal for his own domestic consumers while making better maal too expensive to afford - ala India of 1970s. Not as bad, but similar in nature.

ravishingravi Grand Master

ravishingravi

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Very delicate time for the world. Trump has gone for jugular with reciprocal tarriffs and nobody knows how this comes out on other side.  This can badly backfire and pish the world into a major recession. 

 

 

 

mishra Grand Master

mishra

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ravishingravi said:

Someone I deeply admire. 

 

 

Uncertainly point is valid but I think US as said. surgery completed, patient lives.

 

Now facts

1. tarriff system made US rich in 80s 90

2. impact of tarrifs means other countries will devalue currencies aka, dollar stablises vs gold which was running away. US fed rate cut can happen

3. Taiwan and EU told, U can’t buy Russian oil and then ask me to fight Russia or You can’t set up semiconductor factories in China and expect US to fight China. 
 

Rest implications is openly being discussed in media but the don’t want yo factor above 3 points

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Muloghonto said:


Uhh...that seems wrong. I dont follow car industry, but from what i know from friends working in it, the average best-seller car should be around 30-40G max as that has been the standard price point for the mommy-mobiles/pickup truck base models in USA.


At the end of the day, the economics of manufacturing, in bold strokes, has remained simple for the last 100 years or even longer : your biggest cost is capital investment (ie make factory), your second biggest cost is labour wage, your teriary cost is power and it better be in single digit %-wise for costs if you want to be viable.
This metrics has more or less held and holds even today and simple reality is, american labour wage = 4x-7x similar labour wage in manufacturing for same skill jobs for all levels of Fabrication( not design, which are done by engineers, who in india-china re still cheaper but not 4-7x cheaper than in murrica for competitive quality ones).

 

You can try all the solutions you wish, but as long as country A has 4-5x labour cost disadvantage to country B in manufacturing sector wages, country A will never be able to compete in same manufacturing process. Period.

Trump can make minor changes and bring some manufacturing back to USA but what he is likely to do, in this case, is re-create the disaster of protectionist economy and create substandard maal for his own domestic consumers while making better maal too expensive to afford - ala India of 1970s. Not as bad, but similar in nature.

 

Whats your view on chinese overcapacity and the peg to the usd.

 

 

ravishingravi Grand Master

ravishingravi

Posted
  • Author
Posted
2 hours ago, Vicks57 said:

 

Your White Master 'Trump' caused it.

 

Our village idiot probably will still not be able to figure out or explain what exactly happened. Dravidian midwit is still exploring his / her / they gender while world has moved on deal with complex matters. 

Chaos Grand Master

Chaos

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Vicks57 said:

 

I didn't think that being a slave to white masters is a complex matter:bird:.

 

Just hold on to that schlong with your teeth harder.:phehe: you will get your champagne.


go easy on him man. But go trump ! :)

Teengunalagaan Veteran

Teengunalagaan

Posted
Posted

fasten your seatbelts, new world order is loading

 

If you are weak hearted and in the stock markets, may god have mercy on you

diga Grand Master

diga

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Teengunalagaan said:

fasten your seatbelts, new world order is loading

 

If you are weak hearted and in the stock markets, may god have mercy on you

 

Next few weeks will be tough on investors... 

 

rangeelaraja Grand Master

rangeelaraja

Posted
Posted

Folks that have had a lot of liquid cash - and stayed out of the market - here is the chance to make generational wealth. 
 

Wait and watch till the dust settles, and then go all in - buy and hold for 5 years. You would have made a fortune. 

Muloghonto Grand Master

Muloghonto

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, rangeelaraja said:

Folks that have had a lot of liquid cash - and stayed out of the market - here is the chance to make generational wealth. 
 

Wait and watch till the dust settles, and then go all in - buy and hold for 5 years. You would have made a fortune. 

 

That is my plan. Thanks to trumpwa, i have already made 50K net profit in last two months due to him crashing and regaining canadian stocks by going ' TARIFF ...lol j/k...TARiFF...lol j/k...of final time, TARIFF' .Each time he yelled tarrif to canada, i sold any stocks of canadian companies that are not mining sector or oil sector. Each time he said lol j/k, i brought back.
In 2 such cycles, net profit is at over 50K and i pretty much did this with the gambling investments, aka investments i can afford to see go to 0 and therefore are the ones i take risks with.

Jai ho trump ki.

 

mishra Grand Master

mishra

Posted
Posted

Expected. US is ready for tarrifs. Question is , Is rest of world ready?

Another question to ask is

US is also ready to shift manufacturing to US and India. Is India ready to take it(specially judiciary)?

MechEng Veteran

MechEng

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Vicks57 said:

 

This is what happens when village idiots become POTUS.:facepalm:

 

If you want USA hegemony to die out, Trump is your ideal guy:phehe:

 

Yep, and this is his last term.

 

US is damaging all relations it built on the foundation of winning the WW2

Autonomous Experienced

Autonomous

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Vicks57 said:

 

This is what happens when village idiots become POTUS.:facepalm:

 

If you want USA hegemony to die out, Trump is your ideal guy:phehe:

I dont understand. 

 

Why would you open so many fronts on one go. 

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