randomGuy Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) Cheers. 3600 deaths by 21st July Antibodies survey till 10th July... https://m.timesofindia.com/city/delhi/delhis-sero-prevalence-study-finds-23-48-per-cent-people-affected-by-covid-19/articleshow/77085162.cms Haters like @Clarke Edited July 21, 2020 by randomGuy G_B_ 1
randomGuy Posted July 21, 2020 Author Posted July 21, 2020 IFR of 0.07% 50 lac out of 2 crore (25%) Divide 3600 by 50 lacs IFR 0.07%
randomGuy Posted July 21, 2020 Author Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) I am posted in a dispensary these days... evry dispensary in Delhi has covid tests Approx 5-7% positives are coming... These are rapid antigen tests... results in 15mins RT-PCR more accurate...takes time...more expensive. Our dispensary is managing 10 containment zones out of 650 in Delhi... exemplary work by Delhi government/Central Government Every covid positive person is contacted... oximeter given wherever needed and concentrator on standby for home isolation... Only 7 patients died in home isolation in 15 days. Really exemplary work...I hope emulated country wide. Edited July 21, 2020 by randomGuy coffee_rules, beetle and Mariyam 1 2
coffee_rules Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 1 hour ago, randomGuy said: I am posted in a dispensary these days... evry dispensary in Delhi has covid tests Approx 5-7% positives are coming... These are rapid antigen tests... results in 15mins RT-PCR more accurate...takes time...more expensive. Our dispensary is managing 10 containment zones out of 650 in Delhi... exemplary work by Delhi government/Central Government Every covid positive person is contacted... oximeter given wherever needed and concentrator on standby for home isolation... Only 7 patients died in home isolation in 15 days. Really exemplary work...I hope emulated country wide. Stay safe, dude. You seem to be on the frontline. Is presence of anti-gens/anti-bodies mean they have the virus? or it means their bodies produced when they came in contact and defeated the virus (recovered?).
Clarke Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 1 hour ago, randomGuy said: Haters like @Clarke I told ya already, feel free to recommend ICMR, WHO, NIH, NHS, every damn govt and health service that lockdowns are useless rather than be an internet warrior on ICF. I am someone who trusts the experts in science and administration on the cost benefit analysis. Good for you if Trump & Pence pandemic policy suits you.
Clarke Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 One thing I noticed in my tier 2 city: death in a patient having co-morbidities isn't counted, whatever the effect of covid 19. Sounds like no major problem indeed, the hospital and morgue symptoms and concerns being trivial as well.
randomGuy Posted July 21, 2020 Author Posted July 21, 2020 1 hour ago, coffee_rules said: Stay safe, dude. You seem to be on the frontline. Is presence of anti-gens/anti-bodies mean they have the virus? or it means their bodies produced when they came in contact and defeated the virus (recovered?). Even though my antigen test came negative (they tested before joining work) ...I think I will be having antibodies...like 25% Delhi... moreover my dad was ill for 9 days; cough and fever...so one can imagine what it was (he never got tested; as he was confident of getting well; we respected that) On safety front; I wear common surgical mask; do hand wash often; and social distancing in dispensary...more than that (head cover; glasses, gloves etc) I don't do...
randomGuy Posted July 21, 2020 Author Posted July 21, 2020 1 hour ago, coffee_rules said: Stay safe, dude. You seem to be on the frontline. Is presence of anti-gens/anti-bodies mean they have the virus? or it means their bodies produced when they came in contact and defeated the virus (recovered?). Antigen is the virus itself Antibody is immunity ( produced 10 days after infection) We test antigen in dispensary... it's not a blood test. Antibody is tested for to gauge how much percentage of population has been infected....it's a blood test
randomGuy Posted July 21, 2020 Author Posted July 21, 2020 56 minutes ago, Clarke said: I told ya already, feel free to recommend ICMR, WHO, NIH, NHS, every damn govt and health service that lockdowns are useless rather than be an internet warrior on ICF. I am someone who trusts the experts in science and administration on the cost benefit analysis. Good for you if Trump & Pence pandemic policy suits you. Same here coincidently.
Mariyam Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Clarke said: One thing I noticed in my tier 2 city: death in a patient having co-morbidities isn't counted, whatever the effect of covid 19. Sounds like no major problem indeed, the hospital and morgue symptoms and concerns being trivial as well. Aren't you from Mumbai? Or is this some kind of low key trolling to describe the best city in the world? That aside, the SoP in Mumbai is exactly the *opposite*. If any patient over a certain age were to pass on, the hospital has to still perform a Covid test immediately after declaring clinical death. And the records have to be updated accordingly. Basically there have been cases where people were admitted for other reasons but after death, declared dead of Covid+co-morbidities. Probably helps the hospitals track risk of covid infections in hospitals. Edited July 21, 2020 by Mariyam
rising Posted July 23, 2020 Posted July 23, 2020 On 7/21/2020 at 6:12 PM, randomGuy said: Cheers. 3600 deaths by 21st July Antibodies survey till 10th July... https://m.timesofindia.com/city/delhi/delhis-sero-prevalence-study-finds-23-48-per-cent-people-affected-by-covid-19/articleshow/77085162.cms Haters like @Clarke On 7/21/2020 at 6:18 PM, randomGuy said: IFR of 0.07% 50 lac out of 2 crore (25%) Divide 3600 by 50 lacs IFR 0.07% While the above research maybe true and you might be well informed compared rest as you work on field. your post scream of Confirmation bias. Your only using information which you believe and ignoring rest. It so not so easy in Novel virus ascertain anything quickly that's reason world is struggling and taking so many precautions and by way death is not only worry for people of India the insane amount bill they have pay for hospitalization is aswell And as you said you believe in experts most would say not come conclusions so quickly with virus
randomGuy Posted July 24, 2020 Author Posted July 24, 2020 5 hours ago, rising said: While the above research maybe true and you might be well informed compared rest as you work on field. your post scream of Confirmation bias. Your only using information which you believe and ignoring rest. It so not so easy in Novel virus ascertain anything quickly that's reason world is struggling and taking so many precautions and by way death is not only worry for people of India the insane amount bill they have pay for hospitalization is aswell And as you said you believe in experts most would say not come conclusions so quickly with virus 1. I said herd immunity was the solution, not lockdown. 2. Social distancing for slow spread (for not overloading hospitals) and 20-30 days lockdown to beef up hospital system. 3. My guess was 0.02-0.03% dead meaning 2.5-4 lac dead for India. Probably that will be the eventual figure for india.i hope lower. 4. CDC-USA has IFR of 0.26%. India only has 25% High risk population relative to usa. So 0.26% for USA would translate to nearly 0.07% for India obviously. As shown by sero survey. 5. No bias. All scientifically based. Bias only in folks like @clarke to justify long 2-3 months lockdown...or practically justify any decision by Modi.
Clarke Posted July 24, 2020 Posted July 24, 2020 1 hour ago, randomGuy said: 1. I said herd immunity was the solution, not lockdown. 2. Social distancing for slow spread (for not overloading hospitals) and 20-30 days lockdown to beef up hospital system. 3. My guess was 0.02-0.03% dead meaning 2.5-4 lac dead for India. Probably that will be the eventual figure for india.i hope lower. 4. CDC-USA has IFR of 0.26%. India only has 25% High risk population relative to usa. So 0.26% for USA would translate to nearly 0.07% for India obviously. As shown by sero survey. 5. No bias. All scientifically based. Bias only in folks like @clarke to justify long 2-3 months lockdown...or practically justify any decision by Modi. Hey genius, I'm not the one running Indian or Australian or Israeli cities in lockdown currently. Like I said, go preach the world directly on your genius and their incompetence. We've seen your internet warrior behavior in the past like the constant Kejri for PM preaching. You may do all that, but constantly stalking others on their opinion won't get you a medal. adi B, Stradlater, Vilander and 1 other 2 2
randomGuy Posted July 24, 2020 Author Posted July 24, 2020 35 minutes ago, Clarke said: Hey genius, I'm not the one running Indian or Australian or Israeli cities in lockdown currently. Like I said, go preach the world directly on your genius and their incompetence. We've seen your internet warrior behavior in the past like the constant Kejri for PM preaching. You may do all that, but constantly stalking others on their opinion won't get you a medal. It is not the different opinion. I respect difference of opinion. But to you, it was about putting down difference of opinion with hateful posts ... ...Don't care about "keyboard warrior" or the sarcastic "genius" adjectives... don't waste your time.
Clarke Posted July 24, 2020 Posted July 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, randomGuy said: It is not the different opinion. I respect difference of opinion. But to you, it was about putting down difference of opinion with hateful posts ... ...Don't care about "keyboard warrior" or the sarcastic "genius" adjectives... don't waste your time. Aww, we have a crybaby stalker here. Let me explore the ignore option. Vilander 1
rkt.india Posted July 25, 2020 Posted July 25, 2020 Just wait for winters before gloating. Alam_dar 1
rkt.india Posted July 25, 2020 Posted July 25, 2020 On 7/21/2020 at 6:26 PM, randomGuy said: I am posted in a dispensary these days... evry dispensary in Delhi has covid tests Approx 5-7% positives are coming... These are rapid antigen tests... results in 15mins RT-PCR more accurate...takes time...more expensive. Our dispensary is managing 10 containment zones out of 650 in Delhi... exemplary work by Delhi government/Central Government Every covid positive person is contacted... oximeter given wherever needed and concentrator on standby for home isolation... Only 7 patients died in home isolation in 15 days. Really exemplary work...I hope emulated country wide. Rapid antigen giving 60% false negatives.
adi B Posted July 25, 2020 Posted July 25, 2020 70 percent of testing (16k of 21k) in delhi is antigen testing which has a large inaccuracy rate ,only 5-6 K is RT PCR . Everyone in delhi ,even the CG knows this is not the actual truth . Also Delhi follows a guideline where the patients are now released without testing negative after 8-10 days if they dont show any symptoms. Death figures are largely under rated ,every one knows this ,for the the last 3 weeks its been 30-50 deaths per day ,same same constant ,only a fool will believe these figures
randomGuy Posted July 26, 2020 Author Posted July 26, 2020 11 hours ago, adi B said: 70 percent of testing (16k of 21k) in delhi is antigen testing which has a large inaccuracy rate ,only 5-6 K is RT PCR . Everyone in delhi ,even the CG knows this is not the actual truth . Also Delhi follows a guideline where the patients are now released without testing negative after 8-10 days if they dont show any symptoms. Death figures are largely under rated ,every one knows this ,for the the last 3 weeks its been 30-50 deaths per day ,same same constant ,only a fool will believe these figures Death figure seems actually believable...if one compares with curves of Spain Italy etc. , How the peak happened there and how the numbers fell thereafter. Delhi has similar curve. Spain Italy are proportionate to Delhi population wise. Can't compare with USA as a whole...can compare with individual states of USA .... basically same curve worldwide... exponential rise for abt a month, then a fall. I expect deaths to fall to below 10 per day in 15-20 days ...let's see.
Alam_dar Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 In Pakistan, nothing has been done, still the rate of infection dropped to very low. It may be that summer season is playing a role here, and things may get worse in winter.
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