TN Elections

[G_B_]

52 minutes ago, ash said:

I have no idea how people here are claiming that BJP has ground level cadres but only lack a leader  Are you guys even from TN? Without an alliance, BJP's vote share was around 2.5 percent last time. Of course it would change this time, but I expect MNM to get more than what BJP got in 2016.

 

But playing the devil's advocate here, there are some ways by which BJP can maybe rule TN in the future ( I don't personally like them, but I know this will work)

 

1) Hindu based Unity won't work in TN. TN should be viewed as collection of caste votes. Nobody identifies as a Hindu here, they identify themselves with caste. Consolidate Caste votes by offering more caste based schemes and reservations.

2) Adopt Dravidian social justice schemes. JJ was a great example, I won't call her a Dravidian leader like Anna or MK, but she was clever and understood what works in TN. She always matched DMK in her schemes. 

3) Stay away from anything to do with Hindi

4) Build a state party. TN BJP should be viewed as a separate entity from the center.  Critize center's policies based on public sentiment. If TN is against CAA, then the TN BJP should also be against CAA. TN people value state rights a lot. Some level of autonomy is required to attract voters here. 

 

Basically to beat DMK or ADMK , be like them or atleast act like them

 

 

ummmm MNM is contesting 135 seats and BJP 20. Dumb to compare the both. MNM have given 40 seats to Sarath kumar.....they themselves dont give a **** about TN apart from 3-4 seats in which they have a chance.  If Kamal cared about voteshare they would have contested as much as possible.

 

Re cadre....Unlike DMK and AIADMK the BJP can call upon massive amounts of cadre from Karnataka. There are plenty of Tamils living in Bengaluru who are well versed in Tamil and hail from all parts of TN.

 

BJP dont need to do anything of what you have suggested. They will focus on Puducherry this election. Next election will do what they are doing all over India to get into TN. Lets see how much the DMK get in Puducherry a 80%+ tamil union territory as opposed to BJP. BJP are contesting 9, DMK are contesting 13. 

 

 

 

 

[ash]

10 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

 

ummmm MNM is contesting 135 seats and BJP 20. Dumb to compare the both. MNM have given 40 seats to Sarath kumar.....they themselves dont give a **** about TN apart from 3-4 seats in which they have a chance.  If Kamal cared about voteshare they would have contested as much as possible.

 

Re cadre....Unlike DMK and AIADMK the BJP can call upon massive amounts of cadre from Karnataka. There are plenty of Tamils living in Bengaluru who are well versed in Tamil and hail from all parts of TN.

 

BJP dont need to do anything of what you have suggested. They will focus on Puducherry this election. Next election will do what they are doing all over India to get into TN. Lets see how much the DMK get in Puducherry a 80%+ tamil union territory as opposed to BJP. BJP are contesting 9, DMK are contesting 13. 

 

 

 

 

I am comparing 2016 BJP with MNM now. Read the post. And I still think MNM will do better than 2016 BJP. 

 

And calling people outside state to do what?? Vote for them? Campaign fot them?? and even then what is the guarantee that all those in other states support BJP?? Pretty stupid idea.  Building ground level support cannot be done from another state.

 

BJP cannot win states with the same playbook that they have for other states. People who real know the state can understand my points. 

[Stan AF]

@ash take it easy man. This isn't the audience.

[G_B_]

2 hours ago, ash said:

I am comparing 2016 BJP with MNM now. Read the post. And I still think MNM will do better than 2016 BJP. 

 

And calling people outside state to do what?? Vote for them? Campaign fot them?? and even then what is the guarantee that all those in other states support BJP?? Pretty stupid idea.  Building ground level support cannot be done from another state.

 

BJP cannot win states with the same playbook that they have for other states. People who real know the state can understand my points. 

 

Again, this is a poor point. You are comparing any political entity when jj and mk were alive to today? The very fact kamal started a party was to occupy the space these two left behind. The comparison makes 0 sense.

 

Bjp have a good cadre network in tn. The rss has opened many branches through the state. These will be heavily supplemented by the cadre from neighbouring states during a campaign. Its simple really.

 

Lastly, the very fact bjp win different states is cause they tweak their strategy per state. They dont need people telling them what to do. There is no other political entity in india which is expanding across state and regional lines. The dmk itself cant even crack puducherry anymore. If the dmk cant crack puducherry,  a state which has the same linguistic characteristics as tn surely your amazing suggestions can be directed towards them as well...

 

[ravishingravi]

15 hours ago, ash said:

I am comparing 2016 BJP with MNM now. Read the post. And I still think MNM will do better than 2016 BJP. 

 

And calling people outside state to do what?? Vote for them? Campaign fot them?? and even then what is the guarantee that all those in other states support BJP?? Pretty stupid idea.  Building ground level support cannot be done from another state.

 

BJP cannot win states with the same playbook that they have for other states. People who real know the state can understand my points. 

It is important to study your opponent better than your ally.  Tripura, West Bengal, Assam, Karnataka, Maharashtra etc. These are case studies of different strategies for different states. A party with simplistic play book can’t turn around states in 5-6 years. 
 

You are dealing with an opponent with unlimited money, cadres, patience and commitment. DMK has to be on top of its game. 

[Stan AF]

Aranthangi sitting MLA joins the list of AIADMK Mlas demanding an explanation and blames vijayabhaskar if they end up losing all 6 seats in Pudukottai. 

He's a known TTV supporter.

[ash]

15 hours ago, Stan AF said:

@ash take it easy man. This isn't the audience.

Just find it funny that people who are in no way related to the state "predicting" things . Not even sure if these guys have even visited TN once and have seen the ground reality of BJP party cadres

[coffee_rules]

5 hours ago, ash said:

Just find it funny that people who are in no way related to the state "predicting" things . Not even sure if these guys have even visited TN once and have seen the ground reality of BJP party cadres

Nor is anybody buying a resurgence of a DK ideology with Periyar books selling like hot cakes.  Everybody is accepting DMK win because of the pathetic state ADMK is in (incumbency factor riding this election). The marked difference will be a rise in BJP presence in the state, which is somehow making you uncomfortable. 

[BeautifulGame]

On 3/18/2021 at 5:37 PM, G_B_ said:

 

He is young so has time on side. But would have been tempted joined Rajini had that happened.

 

Is close to bjp karnataka being ips officer there. If he works hard bjp might increase his profile by offering him a post in cg. 

 

Though he is heavily up against it this election cycle i feel he has made right choice. Senthil balaji has moved to karur assembly. He also jumped from admk to dmk. Mostly will defeat vijaybhaskar of admk there. So there is an opposition vacuum in that district. The karur lok sabha seat is currently held by jyothi ms of the congress. She is just good on social media. No ground game. Thambidurai will be too old next election round and will be 76. 

 

So mostly he will get a shot to contest the assembly and ls every 2 to 3 years. Though i dont think bjp will ally anymore, even if they do they will always accomodate him. This is last round of elections for h raja. Post that dont think bjp will bargain for sivaganga.

 

See, admk is weak in that seat he is contesting. Bjp presence is non existant. If he manages to get more than 30% bjp will be incilned to further invest in him. 

 

But the very fact he chose a harder but potentially more rewarding long term route speaks volumes of him. Could have easily sought safer ground in Coimbatore.

 

 

 

ADMK is not weak in Aravakurichi. They are just as strong as DMK in Aravakurichi.
 

if anything since reorganisation in 2011 and inclusion of regions from Karur , ADMK probably is the stronger party there.

 

Aravakurichi is part of the Kongu region which ADMK dominates. 

Edited March 19, 2021 by BeautifulGame

[Stan AF]

10 minutes ago, BeautifulGame said:

ADMK is not weak in Aravakurichi. They are just as strong as DMK in Aravakurichi.
 

if anything since reorganisation in 2011 and inclusion of regions from Karur , ADMK probably is the stronger party there.

 

Aravakurichi is part of the Kongu region which ADMK dominates. 

AIADMK Thambidurai lost by more than 4 lakh votes in Karur to INC's Jothimani in 2019. She polled 63% votes. What you are saying is basically long gone.

[coffee_rules]

DMK’s candidate from Chennai’s 1000 lights assembly constituency dreams of a USofIndia or a Republic of South India. He must be the one making Chennaites buying books of EVR

 

He is probably dreaming of a day when Punjabis like BUmrah wouldn’t come south looking for South Indian brides   @veluyou should support such candidates 

Edited March 19, 2021 by coffee_rules

[G_B_]

1 hour ago, BeautifulGame said:

ADMK is not weak in Aravakurichi. They are just as strong as DMK in Aravakurichi.
 

if anything since reorganisation in 2011 and inclusion of regions from Karur , ADMK probably is the stronger party there.

 

Aravakurichi is part of the Kongu region which ADMK dominates. 

 

Disagee. The ease with which senthil balaji won from there on bypolls suggests that it was him rather than admk who developed that seat.

 

If you remember jj moved him there from karur vidhan sabha. 

 

The seat has a sizeable muslim pop. 

 

 

[G_B_]

7 hours ago, ash said:

Just find it funny that people who are in no way related to the state "predicting" things . Not even sure if these guys have even visited TN once and have seen the ground reality of BJP party cadres

 

Why do you need to be related to the state?

 

Based on your logic indian chef can never specialize to cook italian food or vice versa.

 

Are you yourself currently in tn or outside?

[randomGuy]

4 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

 

Why do you need to be related to the state?

 

Based on your logic indian chef can never specialize to cook italian food or vice versa.

 

Are you yourself currently in tn or outside?

One of this guy's quotes

 

"Nobody identifies as a Hindu here,"

 

@velu

[G_B_]

2 hours ago, coffee_rules said:

Nor is anybody buying a resurgence of a DK ideology with Periyar books selling like hot cakes.  Everybody is accepting DMK win because of the pathetic state ADMK is in (incumbency factor riding this election). The marked difference will be a rise in BJP presence in the state, which is somehow making you uncomfortable. 

 

In a way many dravida supporters remind me of bengalis on tripura.....

 

It will never happen to them, until it does...

 

Two gujaratis will never break through :)

 

[coffee_rules]

7 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

 

In a way many dravida supporters remind me of bengalis on tripura.....

 

It will never happen to them, until it does...

 

Two gujaratis will never break through :)

 

 
went over the head, esp last sentence 

[G_B_]

Just now, coffee_rules said:

 
went over the head, esp last sentence 

Modi...shah...

[BeautifulGame]

1 hour ago, G_B_ said:

 

Disagee. The ease with which senthil balaji won from there on bypolls suggests that it was him rather than admk who developed that seat.

 

If you remember jj moved him there from karur vidhan sabha. 

 

The seat has a sizeable muslim pop. 

 

 

 

Senthil Balaji did that much ground work in Aravakurichi. That's why he could win here. He is that smart a politician. He is arguably among the  best out and out politician in the state currently.  People dont know how much ground work he did during that period. 

 

Also there is a strong Anti Incumbency factor all over Tamil Nadu so Aravakurichi isnt an exception. Only difference between between Aravakurichi and other by election contests was that he could  match the money power of other MLAs.

 

Before Senthil Balaji joined DMK , they didnt have a leader worth naming in our region.  The only strong DMK was Vasugi Murugesan and even she was basically powerful because she was close to Durga so had direct influence on Stalin. Not because she was a strong politician. 

 

You really shouldnt base how strong a party is in a state based on single election as you very well know. Neutral votes will always swing depending on the prevailing climate but how strong a part foundation wont be changed by that.

 

ADMK more strong in most rural areas of Aravakurichi . You can go south of Pallapatti (where the muslim base is) to places from Kurumbapatti to Idayakottai ADMK presence has always been strong. Same with this side of Aravakurichi I.e. Chinna Dharapuram area which is part of Kongu Bastian. Durai Ramasamy who was a former ADMK minister (During MGr period) and very popular leader in that region.

 

So ADMK as a party has strong base in Aravakurichi. Not that DMK doesnt have but because of the pure rural makeup of the constituency ADMK definitely is the party with more foundation. After all Aravakurichi is arguably the border of Kongu region and start of Central Tamil Nadu .

 

Regarding muslim vote share while it is significant it isnt the decisive factor in Aravakurichi.  It would have been true before 2006 when constituencies reorganisation happened. You can check how in the previous elections both Parties put Muslim candidates from Aravakurichi.  Because back then Muslim vote was the decisive factor. But after reorganisation and significant parts of Karur was added to the constituency the influence of Muslim vote block drastically reduced. That's why since 2006 neither party put any muslim candidate.

Edited March 19, 2021 by BeautifulGame

[G_B_]

You mention anti incumbancy but dmk retained that seat in 2011. Despite heavy anti incumbancy  during that election against then. It was the only seat in karur dmk won. Why? 

 

Its exactly why senthil balaji was moved there. 

 

I  am in agreement senthil balaji is a very competant politician.

 

See i am not saying admk have no base. But their base in that seat is much weaker than other seats in karur. Its certainly not equal with Dmk.

 

 

[Vilander]

9 hours ago, coffee_rules said:

DMK’s candidate from Chennai’s 1000 lights assembly constituency dreams of a USofIndia or a Republic of South India. He must be the one making Chennaites buying books of EVR

 

He is probably dreaming of a day when Punjabis like BUmrah wouldn’t come south looking for South Indian brides   @veluyou should support such candidates 

Must find dirt on Chennai must find dirt on Chennai cause I am kannadiga from Kannada nadu .. lol