Forward Defence Posted March 19, 2022 Posted March 19, 2022 The number of home matches and away matches should be the same. If due to practical considerations this is not possible then some sort of weighted averaging must be done to even out this disparity. If the chart is accurate then this is how the teams stack up Home Away Australia : 10 9 Bangladesh: 6 6 England: 11 11 India: 8 10 New Zealand 6 7 Pakistan: 8 6 South Africa: 7 8 Sri Lanka: 6 6 Windies: 7 6 At the end of the cycle we could simply use a away/home correction factor to due a proper evaluation. I know there are more sophisticated mathematical ways to correct for this discrepancy but just for illustrative purposes India has a away/home ratio of 1.25 while Pakistan's is 0.75 Vijy and Mosher 2
Lone Wolf Posted March 19, 2022 Posted March 19, 2022 42 minutes ago, Forward Defence said: The number of home matches and away matches should be the same. If due to practical considerations this is not possible then some sort of weighted averaging must be done to even out this disparity. If the chart is accurate then this is how the teams stack up Home Away Australia : 10 9 Bangladesh: 6 6 England: 11 11 India: 8 10 New Zealand 6 7 Pakistan: 8 6 South Africa: 7 8 Sri Lanka: 6 6 Windies: 7 6 At the end of the cycle we could simply use a away/home correction factor to due a proper evaluation. I know there are more sophisticated mathematical ways to correct for this discrepancy but just for illustrative purposes India has a away/home ratio of 1.25 while Pakistan's is 0.75 Australia's home games looks beefed up by Ashes. They are playing 4 tests away in India & 3 away in Pak. It's balanced I think for them. India is at disadvantage as we toured England for 5 tests away. Same goes for England in Ashes. You can't do anything about it. Small Teams like Pakistan will always be at a advantage when it comes to telly tubby series away from home. NZ too. WTC is flawed but nothing can be done to change that. This PCT system is unfair on team like Eng India Aus who play a lot of test cricket. Vijy and Forward Defence 2
Norman Posted March 19, 2022 Posted March 19, 2022 I'm still angry on greedy mfs at BCCI for that mickey mouse 2-Test series against New Zealand at home where they lucked out of one with a draw. They could have easily scrapped those useless 3 T20is immediately after a T20 WC and played one more test which could have given us more breathing space. Bangladesh has shitty weather in Oct-Nov so we are absolutely fukked if even one game gets washed out. Looking at England's improved batting performance in West Indies, I'm not really confident of that decider Test at Edgebaston esp with a middle order of Vihari, Kohli, Iyer and Pant.
Norman Posted March 19, 2022 Posted March 19, 2022 59 minutes ago, Forward Defence said: If due to practical considerations this is not possible then some sort of weighted averaging must be done to even out this disparity This system is already complicated as it is. Don't think any more modifications will do any good. WTC is just a rag tag tournament as of now with a sole purpose of giving some sort of context to Test series'. And i feel it's doing a pretty good job of it as of now. Lord and Forward Defence 2
Forward Defence Posted March 19, 2022 Posted March 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, Lone Wolf said: Australia's home games looks beefed up by Ashes. They are playing 4 tests away in India & 3 away in Pak. It's balanced I think for them. India is at disadvantage as we toured England for 5 tests away. Same goes for England in Ashes. You can't do anything about it. Small Teams like Pakistan will always be at a advantage when it comes to telly tubby series away from home. NZ too. WTC is flawed but nothing can be done to change that. This PCT system is unfair on team like Eng India Aus who play a lot of test cricket. There are a lot of things that can be done mathematically. Test matches can be classified by difficulty team wise ,venue wise and even condition wise(things like lost tosses at swinging conditions, turning tracks, etc ) . The problem is an agreement has to be arrived at which will be tough. The DLS system is fairly complex and we still accept that although with some reluctance in certain cases. Cricket is one game which makes for very interesting statistical analysis and I don't know why we shouldn't embrace that more. Vijy and Lone Wolf 2
Forward Defence Posted March 19, 2022 Posted March 19, 2022 53 minutes ago, Norman said: This system is already complicated as it is. Don't think any more modifications will do any good. WTC is just a rag tag tournament as of now with a sole purpose of giving some sort of context to Test series'. And i feel it's doing a pretty good job of it as of now. Generally agree with all of what you said. I just think the current system is overly simple. For instance, Pakistan can qualify for the finals and with some luck win the tournament without playing a match in SA, Aus, NZ , Ind or Eng(other than the final maybe). India would have registered atleast 3 wins in Eng/SA along with a stellar home record during the same period and still fail to qualify. That would just be ridiculous. Vijy and putrevus 1 1
Vijy Posted March 19, 2022 Posted March 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Forward Defence said: Generally agree with all of what you said. I just think the current system is overly simple. For instance, Pakistan can qualify for the finals and with some luck win the tournament without playing a match in SA, Aus, NZ , Ind or Eng(other than the final maybe). India would have registered atleast 3 wins in Eng/SA along with a stellar home record during the same period and still fail to qualify. That would just be ridiculous. yes, the current system is too simplistic. it needs to be simple, but not simplistic Forward Defence 1
Jay Posted March 20, 2022 Posted March 20, 2022 6 hours ago, Forward Defence said: There are a lot of things that can be done mathematically. Test matches can be classified by difficulty team wise ,venue wise and even condition wise(things like lost tosses at swinging conditions, turning tracks, etc ) . The problem is an agreement has to be arrived at which will be tough. The DLS system is fairly complex and we still accept that although with some reluctance in certain cases. Cricket is one game which makes for very interesting statistical analysis and I don't know why we shouldn't embrace that more. I am all ears utilising data science models to analyse different methodologies to improve test cricket. But at the management level, they dont care about such analysis. All they care about his viewership and returns on investment. neel roy and Forward Defence 2
neel roy Posted March 20, 2022 Posted March 20, 2022 (edited) India needs to win 5/7 they ll qualify simple. As simple as that. Now india can do that by losing to BD 2-0 and thrashing Aus 4-0 and edgbaston or whatever permutations you want it doesnt matter. End of day its the points percentage versus available which is calculated. My guess is this edgbaston draw Bd 2-0 aus 3-1 so we get 64 out of 84 points which is enough. If we beat aus 3-0 we get 68 /84 and we will walk in in wtc in pole position. If india had won the first test in kanpur we would have been 80 perc through by now Edited March 20, 2022 by neel roy sandeep 1
Vijy Posted March 20, 2022 Posted March 20, 2022 4 hours ago, neel roy said: India needs to win 5/7 they ll qualify simple. As simple as that. Now india can do that by losing to BD 2-0 and thrashing Aus 4-0 and edgbaston or whatever permutations you want it doesnt matter. End of day its the points percentage versus available which is calculated. My guess is this edgbaston draw Bd 2-0 aus 3-1 so we get 64 out of 84 points which is enough. If we beat aus 3-0 we get 68 /84 and we will walk in in wtc in pole position. If india had won the first test in kanpur we would have been 80 perc through by now edgbaston is not likely to be a draw IMO. Root is looking ominous and I think Eng will win this one
Jay Posted March 20, 2022 Posted March 20, 2022 6 hours ago, Vijy said: edgbaston is not likely to be a draw IMO. Root is looking ominous and I think Eng will win this one I hope we win. You have been right with predictions and so have I up till now. When it's close to game time I can make a better prediction regarding the result. But given how we are now captained by a more astute and intelligent rohit, I fancy our chances vs england away. In saying that we are slow starters. Hope we have everyone firing. Vijy 1
Vijy Posted March 21, 2022 Posted March 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Jay said: I hope we win. You have been right with predictions and so have I up till now. When it's close to game time I can make a better prediction regarding the result. But given how we are now captained by a more astute and intelligent rohit, I fancy our chances vs england away. In saying that we are slow starters. Hope we have everyone firing. the thing is that our bowling in eng & nz conditions is not as devastating as our bowling in Oz/SA type of conditions. I still back our bowlers obviously, but I think eng have the seamers for their conditions as well. it will come down, IMO, to a battle of batting lineups and this is where I expect Rooty Tooty to dominate over has-beens like Kohli, etc
Jay Posted March 21, 2022 Posted March 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, Vijy said: the thing is that our bowling in eng & nz conditions is not as devastating as our bowling in Oz/SA type of conditions. I still back our bowlers obviously, but I think eng have the seamers for their conditions as well. it will come down, IMO, to a battle of batting lineups and this is where I expect Rooty Tooty to dominate over has-beens like Kohli, etc Yea England batting in seaming wickets is better. Bowling is equal to ours in swinging tracks. Vijy 1
GeeGaw Posted March 21, 2022 Posted March 21, 2022 To balance things out they should do some sort of weighting for opponent rank and home conditions vs away conditions. There are nine teams in the competition so multiply the number of points won in the match by the 10 minus the opponent's rank (i.e. you beat #1 you get a 10-1 = 9 multiplier). Throw in a 1.5x multiplier if the win was away from home country, leave it at 1.0x for home wins.
wanted_desi Posted March 21, 2022 Posted March 21, 2022 Kohli and Co messed up when we had upper hand over England last year. Felt it was done more of politics between BCCI and Kohli. Vijy 1
sandeep Posted March 22, 2022 Posted March 22, 2022 On 3/19/2022 at 12:39 PM, Norman said: I'm still angry on greedy mfs at BCCI for that mickey mouse 2-Test series against New Zealand at home where they lucked out of one with a draw. They could have easily scrapped those useless 3 T20is immediately after a T20 WC and played one more test which could have given us more breathing space. Bangladesh has shitty weather in Oct-Nov so we are absolutely fukked if even one game gets washed out. Looking at England's improved batting performance in West Indies, I'm not really confident of that decider Test at Edgebaston esp with a middle order of Vihari, Kohli, Iyer and Pant. U know that Indian team historically doesn't do well in the first test in difficult 'away' conditions. They should never have agreed to have that one-off test be the 'decider'. India won that series 2-1 fair and square.
Vijy Posted March 22, 2022 Posted March 22, 2022 6 hours ago, sandeep said: U know that Indian team historically doesn't do well in the first test in difficult 'away' conditions. They should never have agreed to have that one-off test be the 'decider'. India won that series 2-1 fair and square. it should have been played to completion, in which case we would probably have ended up with 3-1, which would have been an accurate reflection.
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