Looking at our future Test stocks

[Vijy]

Let me start off by noting that I want to present a somewhat pessimistic take. Perhaps this is colored by WTC final, but I have felt it for a while now. With that being said, I will be happy if the post is wrong, and people are welcome to bump it if they want (to point out the flaws).

 

My thesis is that the Test team can be in dire straits soon. First, the current seniors are on their last legs (e.g., Umesh, some of the top/middle order) and some will be on their last legs in a few years (e.g., spin twins). Hence, let us imagine a future a couple of years down the line when Trimurti, Rohit, spin twins, Shami, Umesh etc have retired or been removed.

 

This is my pessimistic reading of the Test candidates:

 

Batters:

 

1. Jaiswal: has a lot of shots, and definite hunger to make runs. Should be a good player on flatter tracks. I am still not fully convinced by his game vs swing. Overall: quite positive about him for now.

2. Gill: after his debut series vs Aus, I don't feel he has done a lot. The 2 100s came in relatively easy circumstances. He is playing in the wrong position, and should be moved to middle order. However, even there, he has a worrying tendency to chase balls outside off stump. Overall: still promising, but with more chinks creeping in

3. Sarfaraz: can be adept on flat pitches, and maybe even spinning tracks. But he has a serious issue vs 140+ pace, rather like Gangu, Azhar, Raina, etc. I hope he can score heavily enough in some parts of the world to compensate for others. Overall: could be run machine on some tracks, and have big issues on others

4. Gaekwad, Patidar, Rinku: I have not seen as much of them as the others in Ranjis/FCs, so I can't comment much on them. They all seem kinda promising, but did not catch my eye as much for Tests. Overall: cannot judge them much

5. Shaw and Dhull: two players for whom I had high hopes, both have currently regressed quite a bit (Shaw in IPL and Dhull in A tours, etc). They are still young and can turn it around, but are not that appealing to me now. Overall: once-promising players looking more shaky by the day.

 

Keepers:

 

1. Bharath: not a Test level bat, by any means. Should be discarded pronto.

2. Pant: a generational talent, no doubt about that. However, I am genuinely concerned if he can recover to his same levels of fitness and ability post-injury.

3. Kishan: not convinced by his keeping, and even his batting can get exposed severely on some pitches and bowlers: Overall: a flawed (although perhaps the best available) backup to Pant, if the latter does not recover enough

 

All-rounders:

 

1. Thakur: excellent temperament, good skills. However, I have noticed a decline in his pace, zip and swing, which will increase with age. Overall: gutsy player, but abilities will decrease with age.

2. Bawa: seems very talented in both disciplines, but needs to get more chances in FCs, A tours, and so on. In particular, needs to learn to bowl longer spells in Ranjis.

3. Sundar: his batting seems to have all the desired qualities, in my opinion. However, his fitness is a massive, massive issue. Overall: highly talented player laid low by poor fitness.

4. Hardik: I don't see his body holding up in Tests, and he has not indicated any keenness of playing this format.

5. Axar: I am pleased by his rapidly improving batting, but his bowling has been lacklustre, and seems to be getting more defensive. Overall: can morph into a batting AR, who plays as 5th bowler (kind of like Sundar)

 

Spinners:

 

Once the spin twins retire, I see no real replacements on the horizon. Bishnoi is a LOI bowler, Rahul Chahar has regressed, less said about Chahal the better, and so on.

 

Pacers:

 

1. Siraj: blows hot and cold. Has a lot of skills, but doesn't quite seem to understand how to use them effectively. Also has control issues. Overall: still a very good pacer, but needs to address these problems

2. Bumrah: obviously India's greatest ever pacer, but injuries may continue to rob him of effectiveness (as they did to Shane Bond). Overall: a great bowler, but needs to be managed very carefully

3. Prasidh: his ability to extract bounce is excellent, and has good enough control and other skills, but a big issue can be injury. Overall: needs to be handled carefully, and his fitness should be improved (a bit too skinny)

4. Harshit Rana & Kuldeep Sen: both have played some FC, are tall, get bounce, and have pace. Would like to see Rana, however, get more FC experience. Overall: both are rather green at this stage, so I can't say much either way

5. Tyagi and Umran: If both are properly handled (and this is key), they can become excellent bowlers. But they have very limited FC experience and are not being managed properly. Overall: definite potential, but in real danger of being squandered by team management.

 

Thus, on the whole, I see a shaky batting lineup (too used to flat pitches) and no spin reserves. Pace stocks look decent (albeit not as strong as our peak & some are prone to injury) and AR candidates seem fine.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Vijy

[zen]

Home pitches have to be relatively sporting to develop a most conditions team. 
 

The tailored spinning tracks are used by some bowlers to stats pad (and these guys falter overseas). The wins also mean that losses elsewhere are swept under the carpet as the win% of the team would still be good. 
 

If you want to change Indian cricket, first need to start with creating relatively sporting pitches. 
 

Also draft youngsters after weighing them properly (not like how selections are done in media like get X in because of he did (stats) X in Ranji, where pitches and bowling attacks do not align with what is faced by teams at the international level). 

[Vijy]

1 minute ago, zen said:

Home pitches have to be relatively sporting to develop a most conditions team. 
 

The tailored spinning tracks are used by some bowlers to stats pad (and these guys falter overseas). The wins also mean that losses elsewhere are swept under the carpet as the win% of the team would still be good. 
 

If you want to change Indian cricket, first need to start with creating relatively sporting pitches. 
 

Also draft youngsters after weighing them properly (not like how selections are done in media like get X in because of he did (stats) X in Ranji, where pitches and bowling attacks do not align with what is faced by teams at the international level). 

yes, there needs to be accountability across all spheres ranging from groundsmen (pitches) and NCA staff to selectors to captain and coach.

[singhvivek141]

@Vijy on the spinning side, we still have Kuldeep yadav who is just 29 years old. He can serve us for next 6-7 years.

Sundar is another option if he works on his fitness..he can be useful like Jadeja.

Axar is also just 29..good amount of time.

I might be wrong but I see Bishnoi as a good Test spinner as well, kid is intelligent and knows his limitations very well. He will transform into something special.

 

[Adamant]

I see the following players as our future - 

Jaiswal - The best batting talent in India as of now, has the ability to be our next legendary batter
Gill - Great talent but not as good as people hype him up to be, similar to Virat he is a strokemaker, chases the ball and similarly will find it difficult to become a good test player early on in his career, from there it depends on how much he works on himself.
Shaw - I still have faith in him and especially in test cricket he can definitely be a good Home track bully which we will certainly need, technique is not that tight to make runs in swinging conditions.
Dhull - haven't seen much and can't comment on him
Iyer - not a unique talent but will be a great Home Track Bully and we need that for home tests
Pant- Generational talent and will definitely make a comeback and will be back to his best.
Sundar- Has a good technique and is surely gifted, also is a good bowler, can bat at no.5 in place  of Rahane

Spin Bowling will be in dire straits once the Spin duo retires, my bet is on Kuldeep and Axar can do ok, but for that Kuldeep needs to be included in squad atleast.

Fast bowling- have high hopes here
Karthik Tyagi is easily the best Indian young prospect I have seen since our blue eyed boy Irfan Pathan, he needs to play more A tours, bcci needs to invest on him instead of mukesh Kumar and some random short trundler.
Bumrah - will defo make a comeback and he is gonna breathe fire.
Prasidh - Was in the pipeline and could have debuted in test cricket had he remained fit, a tall 140+ pace bowler who extracts extra bounce.
Siraj - outstanding bowler who is finding it difficult to lead the attack, one bumrah gets back Siraj will be doubly effective, he is the kind of pacer who bowls aggressively, goes for runs and needs pressure from the other end to thrive. Will be our own version of Gillespie.
Thakur - a mandatory pick in SENA conditions, man with the golden arm.
Havent seen much of Rana and Sen so wont comment on them.

Our pace unit will be strong, as of now we need to phase out Shami and Umesh but that can only happen when Bumrah comes back and also Prasidh gets fit, so I definitely dont see how the team management is wrong in picking Shami and Umesh for this test, in order to get rid of them we need our young pacers to get fit.
 

[Majestic]

In Tests, we have very limited stocks in batting and fast bowling as well.

 

Prasidh is almost 30 and hasn't debuted yet. Bumrah has been unfit from past 1.5 years and we simply don't know how good will he be once he is back.

 

Siraj is good but he is a kind of bowler who will have bad days and some very good days too. He can win you a game on his own and lose a game on his own as well( like in South Africa). Tyagi is one of the young promising pacer that India has got but aside of that , I don't see much of talent in pace bowling as well especially in Test cricket. I will be surprised if any of the other names go on to emerge successful in Tests among pacers.

[Adamant]

7 minutes ago, Majestic said:

In Tests, we have very limited stocks in batting and fast bowling as well.

 

Prasidh is almost 30 and hasn't debuted yet. Bumrah has been unfit from past 1.5 years and we simply don't know how good will he be once he is back.

 

Siraj is good but he is a kind of bowler who will have bad days and some very good days too. He can win you a game on his own and lose a game on his own as well( like in South Africa). Tyagi is one of the young promising pacer that India has got but aside of that , I don't see much of talent in pace bowling as well especially in Test cricket. I will be surprised if any of the other names go on to emerge successful in Tests among pacers.

Prasidh is 27 bro, bahut time hai abhi.
Also if you have 5 test class bowlers then thats more than enough, do you think Australia have more than 5 , especially after Starc and Hazel are done?

[Majestic]

11 minutes ago, Adamant said:

Prasidh is 27 bro, bahut time hai abhi.
Also if you have 5 test class bowlers then thats more than enough, do you think Australia have more than 5 , especially after Starc and Hazel are done?

There are 4- Bumrah, Siraj, Prasidh and Tyagi. Out of them, three are struggling with a lot of injuries. Indian players play 2 months IPL every year and value LOi matches a lot so most of the time two of these 4 will remain injured. 

 

There is a reason why India had to look towards Unadkat for test matches because Prasidh got injured at wrong time and hasn't yet debuted and still persisting with Umesh Yadav.

[Vijy]

43 minutes ago, singhvivek141 said:

@Vijy on the spinning side, we still have Kuldeep yadav who is just 29 years old. He can serve us for next 6-7 years.

Sundar is another option if he works on his fitness..he can be useful like Jadeja.

Axar is also just 29..good amount of time.

I might be wrong but I see Bishnoi as a good Test spinner as well, kid is intelligent and knows his limitations very well. He will transform into something special.

 

kuldeep is a bit far away from the current picture, but I agree I forgot him. axar, sundar are both ARs, so I placed them in that category. I can't see Bishnoi as Test player for the moment; will be happy to be wrong.

[Vijy]

34 minutes ago, Majestic said:

In Tests, we have very limited stocks in batting and fast bowling as well.

 

Prasidh is almost 30 and hasn't debuted yet. Bumrah has been unfit from past 1.5 years and we simply don't know how good will he be once he is back.

 

Siraj is good but he is a kind of bowler who will have bad days and some very good days too. He can win you a game on his own and lose a game on his own as well( like in South Africa). Tyagi is one of the young promising pacer that India has got but aside of that , I don't see much of talent in pace bowling as well especially in Test cricket. I will be surprised if any of the other names go on to emerge successful in Tests among pacers.

I am not as worried about pace, but am more worried by far in spin and batting

[vvvslaxman]

Injury free fast bowlers for Tests is very rare to find. We bagged Ishant all his career rightfully most of the times. But he was always available something you cannot say about our current crop except Shami.  India's dream run of pace domination is practically over. Our overseas performance will regress massively due to that.

[Vijy]

4 hours ago, vvvslaxman said:

Injury free fast bowlers for Tests is very rare to find. We bagged Ishant all his career rightfully most of the times. But he was always available something you cannot say about our current crop except Shami.  India's dream run of pace domination is practically over. Our overseas performance will regress massively due to that.

need to have a big enough pool that even 1-2 injuries would be okay at a given time -- in other words, we need about 6 test level pacers

[singhvivek141]

2 hours ago, Vijy said:

need to have a big enough pool that even 1-2 injuries would be okay at a given time -- in other words, we need about 6 test level pacers

Siraj, Shami, Bumrah, Prasidh, Harshit, Sen and Tyagi can be that pool in Tests.

 

Last 4 are tall (6'2+), quick (except Prasidh all are 140+ consistently). 

Tyagi and Harshit are under 23, so have age as well their side.

 

Umran is a prospect for ODI's, Kaverappa and Mayank Yadav are other two who have stats on their side but have to see them more.

Edited June 11, 2023 by singhvivek141

[Chakdephatte]

We will do just fine. Apart from Ashwin, everyone can be replaced.

[rkt.india]

For Indian test cricket to keep running after the oldies retire, we will need to prepare for draws in home tests. Runs in home tests is what provide confidence to the batsmen. We cannot keep making dust bowls for the newgen who are not established.

[singhvivek141]

38 minutes ago, rkt.india said:

For Indian test cricket to keep running after the oldies retire, we will need to prepare for draws in home tests. Runs in home tests is what provide confidence to the batsmen. We cannot keep making dust bowls for the newgen who are not established.

And that means we have to sacrifice next WTC cycle...as next gen players will take couple of years to get in the groove.

I doubt anyone will make such bold call now...Dada was the last one whom I had some hope.

[tweaker]

The selectors should first try to phase out seniors .

Some seniors  should be rested for Windies tour and Jaiswal,Sarfaraz,Patidar,should be selected in the squad

[zen]

On 6/10/2023 at 1:04 PM, zen said:

Home pitches have to be relatively sporting to develop a most conditions team. 
 

The tailored spinning tracks are used by some bowlers to stats pad (and these guys falter overseas). The wins also mean that losses elsewhere are swept under the carpet as the win% of the team would still be good. 
 

If you want to change Indian cricket, first need to start with creating relatively sporting pitches. 
 

Also draft youngsters after weighing them properly (not like how selections are done in media like get X in because of he did (stats) X in Ranji, where pitches and bowling attacks do not align with what is faced by teams at the international level). 

Gavaskar-Bhajji are saying something similar as above about tailored spinning pitches hurting India as a) Batsmen do not get to bat longer, b) pacers do not get to bowl longer spells, and c) spinners who do well on such pitches are not able to do well elsewhere: 

 

 

[Lord]

15 hours ago, Chakdephatte said:

We will do just fine. Apart from Ashwin, everyone can be replaced.

Kuldeep can take over from him

[Malcolm Merlyn]

What about future team management?