Elections 23-24 NDA vs I.N.D.I.A (updated) -Poll Added

[mishra]

1 hour ago, Insidious said:

How you are getting these number? So you are saying, numbers will go higher than 2019, despite no Modi wave arround. I seriously doubt this. 

2019 is given on basis that Modi voter is coming to Poll. INDI is fractured. Modi has played and won alliance battle too (Bihar Karnataka Andhra). He also played a psychological battle by declaring 370 seats which is evident from 2 seats already to BJP without even contesting (Opposition voter and leaders got disheartened even before the match begun that they will loose. So not all voters/leaders will show Sportman spirit and play the game ).

 

On top, Fact as i mentioned. There are more voters who casted their vote then 2019. WOrse performance in terms of vote percentage(10+%) drop is Tamil Nadu which is a opposition voter state.

 

Even Soutik Biswas (BBC India) all time BJP Hater is acknowledging that Modi's benefit scheme (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/ce483qevngqt) has reached to Poor and its a headline on BBC.

 

Watch lallntop(youtube) in Kashmir. Surprisingly you will see there is BJP supporter in Anantnag and a Congress worker is hoping Modiji will deliver more while other dont know why they shouldnt vote BJP

So I am making a assessment on basis of these indicators and not who is who.

 

 

 

Edited May 9, 2024 by mishra

[randomGuy]

1 hour ago, Insidious said:

How you are getting these number? So you are saying, numbers will go higher than 2019, despite no Modi wave arround. I seriously doubt this. 

I voted AAP in 2014. But voted bjp in 2019 not because of balakot air strikes. I believe there are many people who have been impressed by Modi over the years and disillusioned by non-bjp parties (and they got their chul/khujli of voting against bjp already satisfied in 2014,2019) and so, the voteshare of BJP should go on increasing in 2024 as well. Then there is the Ram Mandir emotional connect. 350+ is not a far fetched scenario if people don't vote on caste, regional lines but purely on basis of work and talent.

Edited May 9, 2024 by randomGuy

[Insidious]

11 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

I voted AAP in 2014. But voted bjp in 2019 not because of balakot air strikes. I believe there are many people who have been impressed by Modi over the years and disillusioned by non-bjp parties (and they got their chul/khujli of voting against bjp already satisfied in 2014,2019) and so, the voteshare of BJP should go on increasing in 2024 as well. Then there is the Ram Mandir emotional connect. 350+ is not a far fetched scenario if people don't vote on caste, regional lines but purely on basis of work and talent.

But people will vote on caste, regional lines ultimately. I also want Modi to get 400+ or 500+ seats. But that won't change the ground reality. Modi is coming but not with those lofty numbers

 

Posters here are commenting as if we live in an ideal world. That Modi should come with full majority (350+ seats) because he fulfilled what he promised. I got that point as many posters stated the same above.

 

But there is nothing to suggest that he is coming with those numbers. No Modi wave, Chandigarh mayor election saga, Electoral bonds saga, Modi statement on Ambani - Adani, prajwal scandal . Now getting news that sandeshKhali was framed by BJP. All these don't suggest BJP/NDA  coming with 350+.

Will be happy to be proved wrong. But it is what it is.

[mishra]

42 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

I voted AAP in 2014. But voted bjp in 2019 not because of balakot air strikes. I believe there are many people who have been impressed by Modi over the years and disillusioned by non-bjp parties (and they got their chul/khujli of voting against bjp already satisfied in 2014,2019) and so, the voteshare of BJP should go on increasing in 2024 as well. Then there is the Ram Mandir emotional connect. 350+ is not a far fetched scenario if people don't vote on caste, regional lines but purely on basis of work and talent.

Actually, till counting started happening and results started pouring in, None of these smartass Analysts predited BJP will win in 2014 or 2019.

In 2014 Exit Polls mostly suggested NDA : (260-280) while Actual Poll gave NDA -336 BJP -282

 

2019: Exit Polls said BJP/NDA will do or just fall short of 2014 actuals because they didnt had a good pre alliance. while actual Poll gave BJP 303 and NDA 354

 

Same story is being repeated now. However, there is a critical point in vote share. Once you reach there,  Vote start turning into seats and BJP is allmost there in many states.

 

Edited May 9, 2024 by mishra

[Insidious]

1 hour ago, mishra said:

2019 is given on basis that Modi voter is coming to Poll. INDI is fractured. Modi has played and won alliance battle too (Bihar Karnataka Andhra). He also played a psychological battle by declaring 370 seats which is evident from 2 seats already to BJP without even contesting (Opposition voter and leaders got disheartened even before the match begun that they will loose. So not all voters/leaders will show Sportman spirit and play the game ).

 

On top, Fact as i mentioned. There are more voters who casted their vote then 2019. WOrse performance in terms of vote percentage(10+%) drop is Tamil Nadu which is a opposition voter state.

 

Even Soutik Biswas (BBC India) all time BJP Hater is acknowledging that Modi's benefit scheme (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/ce483qevngqt) has reached to Poor and its a headline on BBC.

 

Watch lallntop(youtube) in Kashmir. Surprisingly you will see there is BJP supporter in Anantnag and a Congress worker is hoping Modiji will deliver more while other dont know why they shouldnt vote BJP

So I am making a assessment on basis of these indicators and not who is who.

 

 

 

Let's see

[rish]

12 hours ago, Insidious said:

No, NDA might still win. But the point I want to make, there is a never seen desperation in Modi, which majority of posters here failed to acknowledge. BJP getting 320+? 350+?   where are you getting these numbers?  This is not your peak Modi and there is no Modi wave/nationalism like 2019 

The ground reality is people frustrated because lack of jobs, inflation etc., which govt. failed to address. 

These NRC, CAA and Hindutva might be priority for some privileged Indian/NRIs (like members here) or for some pensioners but not for the common Indian youth who are debt ridden and looking for stable income source.

Possible. BJP is losing seats in MH and Bihar.Maharashtra is the biggest unknown .Practically every seat is being run on local issues and Modi factor is not very strong.

BJP wjnning 30 seats would be a good show.

[rish]

Key question to answer.

 

Will Uddhav sena voter vote for Kangress?

In my opinion, a sena voter is more likely to vote for BJP and a BJP voter will vote for Ajit even if reluctantly.

 

What a screwup MH is. in hindsight BJP should have given 2.5 years to UT as CM.

[Muloghonto]

6 hours ago, Insidious said:

INC declared its manifesto well before BJP's manifesto. The anti-majority stance was very much established in their manifesto. Why Modi didn't counter it there and then? And what triggered Modi to do so after 1st phase?

I have already answered it : sophisticated election meddling by congress & western assets. Right now there is a sophisticated propaganda campaign to election meddle being conducted on social media.

 

6 hours ago, Insidious said:

 

While attacking rohingyas is an apt response, but statements like INC will steal 'mangalsutra', Buffaloes and Adani - Ambani, can't be passed off as counter. It is just a desperate attempt of a leader who know that he can't keep up with his hubristic slogan of 400 par. Infact 300 would be nothing sort of a miracle.

sounds like you are projecting a lot from your inability to understand basic sarcasm and tit for tat counter.  if congress can campaign on 'evil genocidal hinduvta party', we can campaign on the same 'evil anti hindu deshdrohi party'. 

[rish]

Did a high level analysis and NDA is winning between 261( worst case) to 356 seats ( best case)

[rish]

1 hour ago, Insidious said:

But people will vote on caste, regional lines ultimately. I also want Modi to get 400+ or 500+ seats. But that won't change the ground reality. Modi is coming but not with those lofty numbers

 

Posters here are commenting as if we live in an ideal world. That Modi should come with full majority (350+ seats) because he fulfilled what he promised. I got that point as many posters stated the same above.

 

But there is nothing to suggest that he is coming with those numbers. No Modi wave, Chandigarh mayor election saga, Electoral bonds saga, Modi statement on Ambani - Adani, prajwal scandal . Now getting news that sandeshKhali was framed by BJP. All these don't suggest BJP/NDA  coming with 350+.

Will be happy to be proved wrong. But it is what it is.

I would say that Bihar MH are the hardest hit.BJP will gain in UP orissa WB telangana.And lose seats in MH Bihar Karnataka and Possibly rajasthan.

[coffee_rules]

1 hour ago, Insidious said:

But people will vote on caste, regional lines ultimately. I also want Modi to get 400+ or 500+ seats. But that won't change the ground reality. Modi is coming but not with those lofty numbers

 

Posters here are commenting as if we live in an ideal world. That Modi should come with full majority (350+ seats) because he fulfilled what he promised. I got that point as many posters stated the same above.

 

But there is nothing to suggest that he is coming with those numbers. No Modi wave, Chandigarh mayor election saga, Electoral bonds saga, Modi statement on Ambani - Adani, prajwal scandal . Now getting news that sandeshKhali was framed by BJP. All these don't suggest BJP/NDA  coming with 350+.

Will be happy to be proved wrong. But it is what it is.

 

Look at how this media narrative works. Hindu women being sexually abused by Muslim candidate and his henchment , gets victim-shamed by media and police. The perp is in ED custody, but he gets all the emotional support because he is from sumuday vishesh. As per some reports, that incident should get BJP more seats than 2019. Hindus were chased off to Assam out of WB during post-poll violence , after the assembly polls and Mr Vishwaguru was silent. He is speaking now only during elections. Sad state of affairs in WB for Hindus. 

[rish]

Just saw the poll I voted for 270 to 300 for BJP + but that was just for BJP...my vote is from 300 to 320 for NDA

[someone]

What about opposition analysis? I think they peaked pre-election than now. Had they remained quiet; they would be better placed?

 

Their leaders, their speeches, their mainifesto have many self-goals. That has caused plenty of scares, and publicity for the wrong reason’s. Surely, this also has to accounted towards any analysis…

[cowboysfan]

3 hours ago, mishra said:

Actually, till counting started happening and results started pouring in, None of these smartass Analysts predited BJP will win in 2014 or 2019.

In 2014 Exit Polls mostly suggested NDA : (260-280) while Actual Poll gave NDA -336 BJP -282

 

2019: Exit Polls said BJP/NDA will do or just fall short of 2014 actuals because they didnt had a good pre alliance. while actual Poll gave BJP 303 and NDA 354

 

Same story is being repeated now. However, there is a critical point in vote share. Once you reach there,  Vote start turning into seats and BJP is allmost there in many states.

 

this is what is happening in Telangana.BRS is set to get wiped out but still poll around 15-20% vote ,that will help BJP to get more seats than Congress even though Congress will have a higher vote share.

[AuxiliA]

What's the situation in Andhra? NDA tally can rise there significantly if YSR loses. 

[rish]

18 minutes ago, AuxiliA said:

What's the situation in Andhra? NDA tally can rise there significantly if YSR loses. 

CBN is expected to get 10-5 seats

[cowboysfan]

16 minutes ago, AuxiliA said:

What's the situation in Andhra? NDA tally can rise there significantly if YSR loses. 

very interesting IN AP.Jagan will most likely lose but YSRCP will still get a lot of seats in both Assembly and lok sabha because Jagan has core voters and minorities will also vote for him since TDP allied with BJP.I still dont get why TDP wanted BJP back.they could have won the election without BJP support.

[Mariyam]

13 hours ago, rish said:

Did a high level analysis and NDA is winning between 261( worst case) to 356 seats ( best case)

What does your analysis say for Maharashtra?

And Mumbai in particular.

[ravishingravi]

Eagerly waiting Jun4 th, to see the end of online part time psephologist predictions. The most useless exercise anyone can do. 

 

Imagine spending months trying to defend prediction of why something would or wouldn't happen. And this does or doesn't happen. And all the month's "work" is eroded by one day of results. And then its just shrug of shoulder and then over. 

[Lone Wolf]

16 hours ago, rish said:

Did a high level analysis and NDA is winning between 261( worst case) to 356 seats ( best case)

Market has crashed some what...  Nifty has fallen below 22k....  The trends probably have reached to some big investors and they have started dumping their investments...  That Jibe on Adani Ambani hinted that all izz not well.