A Grok report: Who is winning the narrative war (13 May 2025)

[bharathh]

I created this report after working with Grok AI for a bit. Found it quite interesting. TLDR; Muslim world support Pak. Rest of the world doesn't really care

 

Key Points

• Research suggests Pakistan is currently winning the narrative war on social media, particularly in Turkey, Azerbaijan, and the Arab world, due to strong cultural and religious ties.

• It seems likely that India has significant support in Western countries like the U.S., UK, Israel, and Australia, where its democratic and anti-terrorism stance resonates.

• The evidence leans toward polarized views, with balanced voices rare; neutral sentiments are more common in Germany, Spain, and Brazil, focusing on peace.

• Controversy exists, as narratives are shaped by geopolitical alliances, with both sides having passionate but regionally divided support.

Overview

The India-Pakistan tensions, especially following events like Operation Sindoor in May 2025, have sparked a global narrative war on social media. Pakistan appears to have an edge in regions with strong cultural and religious solidarity, while India gains traction in Western democracies. The complexity arises from diverse public opinions, with some countries remaining neutral or disengaged.

 

Regional Support

• Pakistan's Strength: Countries like Turkey, Azerbaijan, and the Arab world show overt support for Pakistan, driven by shared Muslim identity and alliances. X posts often use hashtags like #StandWithPakistan, with high engagement.

• India's Support: In the U.S., UK, Israel, and Australia, India's narrative of fighting terrorism and upholding democracy finds support, though it's less unified compared to Pakistan's regional bloc.

• Neutral Stances: Germany, Spain, and Brazil focus on de-escalation, with X posts emphasizing peace rather than taking sides.

Implications

The narrative war reflects geopolitical dynamics, with Pakistan leading in emotionally charged regions and India in strategically aligned ones. Balanced voices are scarce, highlighting the polarized nature of online discourse.

 

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Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of the Narrative War in India-Pakistan Tensions

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of who is winning the narrative war in the India-Pakistan tensions, focusing on social media sentiments across the top countries in the world, particularly on X, as of May 13, 2025. The analysis avoids relying on media articles, prioritizing direct social media data from common users, and uses historical context for inference where direct evidence is limited. The findings are based on searches conducted on X for relevant posts, focusing on user sentiments expressed through posts, hashtags, and engagement metrics.

 

Methodology

Searches were conducted on X using language filters (e.g., lang:fr for French, lang:de for German) and keywords related to India-Pakistan tensions, such as "India Pakistan," "Indien Pakistan," or "الهند باكستان." Hashtags like #StandWithPakistan and #StandWithIndia were also searched to gauge support. For each region, posts from individual users were prioritized over official accounts to capture the common person's reaction. For countries with restricted social media (e.g., China), international commentary and limited X posts were analyzed.

 

Findings by Region

 

1. Turkey and Azerbaijan

The evidence leans toward strong pro-Pakistan sentiment among Turkish and Azerbaijani users on X. Turkish posts frequently use hashtags like #StandWithPakistan and #PakistanYanındayız, expressing solidarity with Pakistan as a "brother" nation. For example:

• An X post by @TurkishCentury on May 9, 2025, mocking India and declaring support for Pakistan garnered over 200,000 views and 9,000 likes .

• Azerbaijani users, though less visible, share similar sentiments, often boosted by official statements condemning India, as seen in posts like @Farid_Shahbazli's on May 8, 2025, emphasizing Pakistan's sovereignty .

• Balanced voices are nearly absent, with most posts overtly supportive of Pakistan, driven by cultural and religious ties.

2. Arab World (e.g., Saudi Arabia, UAE)

Arabic-speaking users on X show strong pro-Pakistan sentiment, with posts using #StandWithPakistan and celebrating Pakistani military actions. For instance:

• @muhammadrazah's post on May 10, 2025, used #StandWithPakistan and #PakistanArmy, emphasizing religious solidarity with phrases like "Victory from Allah" .

• @docshayji's posts claimed Pakistan shot down Indian jets, mocking India with "Pakistan 5 - India 0," indicating overt support .

• No posts with #StandWithIndia were found in Arabic, suggesting a clear lean toward Pakistan. News accounts like @cnnarabic reported neutrally, but individual users favored Pakistan.

3. Western Democracies (U.S., UK, Israel, Australia)

Research suggests a lean toward India in these countries, though with some ambivalence. X posts highlight India's democratic credentials and anti-terrorism stance:

• U.S. users, like @CJBdingo25's post on May 7, 2025, supporting India's actions against terror camps, received over 140,000 views and 9,500 likes .

• Israeli users, such as @Tiziana_DR on May 7, 2025, expressed solidarity with India, emphasizing shared security concerns .

• UK and Australian users show support, but some posts, like those calling for peace, indicate ambivalence. Balanced voices exist but are less visible than partisan posts.

• Pro-Pakistan voices from diaspora communities compete, diluting India's narrative but not erasing it.

4. Europe (Germany, Spain, Italy)

The evidence leans toward neutrality in Germany and Spain, with a focus on peace and de-escalation:

• German posts, like @MAStrackZi's on May 7, 2025, expressed concern and called for de-escalation, with no clear support for either side .

• Spanish posts, such as @Geopolitik_2030's on May 9, 2025, reported on the conflict without bias, focusing on updates .

• Italy shows some pro-India sentiment, with users like @GianniVernetti supporting India's actions against terrorism on May 7, 2025 .

• Balanced voices are more visible here, advocating for dialogue, but they struggle to gain traction compared to polarized posts.

 

5. China

It seems likely that China's official stance is neutral, calling for restraint, as seen in posts from @globaltimesnews on May 7, 2025, reporting China's mediation efforts . However, underlying support for Pakistan due to strategic ties is inferred, though not explicitly visible on X due to restricted access. Posts like @business's on May 7, 2025, noted Chinese defense companies benefiting from the tensions, suggesting economic interests .

 

6. Southeast Asia (e.g., Indonesia)

The data is limited, but some pro-Pakistan leanings are evident. Posts in Indonesian, like @OzFromKansas's on May 10, 2025, used #StandWithPakistan, indicating religious solidarity . However, many posts are from Indian diaspora users, not native Indonesians, and neutral reports, like @Marchfoward's on May 11, 2025, focus on updates . Balanced voices are unclear due to limited data.

 

7. Latin America (e.g., Brazil)

Brazilian users on X, like @caioblinder on May 7, 2025, discuss the conflict in terms of nuclear risks without taking sides, focusing on reporting . No significant support for either side was found, with posts emphasizing global implications rather than allegiance.

 

Comparison and Synthesis

Pakistan's narrative dominates in Turkey, Azerbaijan, and the Arab world, where support is near-unanimous and emotionally charged, driven by cultural and religious ties. India's narrative is stronger in Western democracies, where strategic and democratic values align, but faces competition from ambivalence and pro-Pakistan diaspora voices. Neutral regions like Germany, Spain, and Brazil contribute little to either narrative, focusing on peace. China's neutrality and Indonesia's mixed engagement add complexity, but Pakistan's concentrated support gives it an edge.

 

Tables for Clarity

To organize the findings, the following tables summarize key observations:

Region	Platform Evidence	Support for Pakistan	Support for India	Balanced Voices	Ambivalence
Turkey/Azerbaijan	Direct X posts, e.g., #StandWithPakistan	High, overt support	None visible	Rare	Uncommon
Arab World	Arabic posts, e.g., #StandWithPakistan	High, overt support	None visible	Rare	Uncommon
Western Democracies (U.S., UK, Israel, Australia)	Mixed posts, e.g., #StandWithIndia	Moderate, diaspora-driven	High, strategic ties	Some, less visible	Common
Europe (Germany, Spain, Italy)	Neutral posts, focus on peace	Low to none	Low to moderate (Italy)	Common, less traction	Common
China	Limited X posts, official neutrality	Likely, inferred	Low, strategic ties	High, official stance	Common
Southeast Asia (Indonesia)	Limited posts, some pro-Pakistan	Moderate, religious ties	Low, diaspora-driven	Unclear, limited data	Likely common
Latin America (Brazil)	Neutral posts, focus on reporting	None visible	None visible	Common, focus on peace	High

 

Key Hashtags Observed	Language/Region	Frequency	Implication
#StandWithPakistan	Turkish, Arabic	High	Strong support for Pakistan
#StandWithIndia	English, Italian	Moderate	Support for India, Western focus
#RejectIndianAggression	Turkish, Arabic	Seen in posts	Anti-India sentiment, pro-Pakistan
#OperationSindoor	English, Hindi	Seen in posts	Pro-India, focus on military action

 

Discussion

The findings highlight Pakistan's dominance in the narrative war among Muslim-majority regions and its allies, where emotional and religious solidarity drives high engagement. India's narrative, while broader in Western democracies, faces ambivalence and competition from pro-Pakistan diaspora voices. Neutral regions like Germany and Brazil contribute to a global call for peace, but their impact is limited compared to polarized narratives. The scarcity of balanced voices fuels polarization, benefiting Pakistan's more unified message in key regions.

Given the current date (May 13, 2025), the analysis is based on recent X activity, ensuring relevance. However, the reliance on X for some regions (e.g., China, Indonesia) was limited, suggesting future research could explore other platforms like Weibo or Telegram for a more comprehensive view.

 

Conclusion

In summary, research suggests that Pakistan is currently winning the narrative war on social media, particularly due to strong support from Turkey, Azerbaijan, and the Arab world, where cultural and religious ties amplify its message. India has significant backing in Western democracies and some European countries, but its support is more fragmented. Neutral or balanced voices are rare, with most activity reflecting polarized views. Pakistan's passionate and concentrated support gives it the edge, while India's broader but less intense narrative remains competitive.

 

[Lone Wolf]

India's failure to convey its narrative effectively on foreign platforms has definitely constrained us.

 

There is general I don't care consensus in Indian circles about this area of warfare.

We are slowly catching up...and trust me our response is lot better than in Feb 2019.  That was a dark period when you look into foreign media outlets and our narrative was nowhere to be seen.

Edited May 13, 2025 by Lone Wolf

[goose]

Make this go viral !

 

 

[Number]

Tom Cooper is the best expert on South Asian War matters. His final line "When one side starts hitting nuclear facilities and the other side doesn't have anything to retaliate, then it is a clear victory for India".

[coffee_rules]

ab kya AI se opinions bane hum?  Grok is a yes-man in how you frame the q. Ask Grok if babri Masjid was illegally destroyed, it will show links in that context.  I think somebody with time can produce a Pakistan narrative like this with Grok. 

[Lord]

Chatgpt 

 

Quote

Based on the available evidence and analysis, neither India nor Pakistan can be said to have clearly "won" the 2025 war. However, if forced to weigh outcomes, here's a balanced conclusion:

India's Gains:

• Achieved tactical military success with targeted airstrikes (Operation Sindoor) that reportedly destroyed key terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan.

• Demonstrated a more assertive military doctrine, signaling a shift in India's posture toward cross-border terrorism.

• Inflicted substantial damage to known militant bases, particularly in Punjab and Kashmir regions of Pakistan.

Pakistan's Gains:

• Avoided full-scale war through diplomatic channels, with the U.S. brokering a ceasefire.

• Claimed symbolic victories, including shooting down Indian aircraft (though not independently verified).

• Maintained domestic unity and gained some international diplomatic sympathy, especially by positioning itself as the aggrieved party.

Strategic Conclusion:

• India won tactically, achieving most of its short-term objectives by punishing groups it blames for the Kashmir attack.

• Pakistan managed to contain escalation, avoiding a deeper conflict and leveraging diplomacy.

Final Verdict:

If judged by military results: India had the upper hand.
If judged by strategic containment and diplomacy: Pakistan held its ground.

In short: India won the battle, Pakistan survived the storm. Neither won the war.

 

[zen]

Being an Islamic country and serving as a base during military operations in AFG, Pakistan probably has wider connections than India, resulting in its narrative’s traction in those regions.

 

However, India’s narrative is likely to be weighted more by those that count - the US, Russia, etc. 

[zen]

Also India this that is more Indian among Indian talk so basically pointless. 
 

It is like a dad telling his son - we are great, and the son responding with - yes, we are. And both feeling great.

 

And similar situation when Pakistani talk among Pakistanis - where Pakistan becomes a power that can reshape the world. 
 

Which is why time spent on jingoism can feel wasted as the other side can match that easily. 

[goose]

Chat GPT:

 

The April 22, 2025, terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians, has been linked by Indian authorities to Pakistan-based terror groups, with several pieces of evidence suggesting involvement.The Times of India+6Indiatimes+6Wikipedia+6

Key Evidence Linking Pakistan-Based Groups to the Pahalgam Attack

1. Initial Claim by The Resistance Front (TRF):

   • The TRF, believed to be an offshoot of the Pakistan-based, UN-designated terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), initially claimed responsibility for the attack. Wikipedia+2Wikipedia+2Wikipedia+2

2. Involvement of Pakistani Nationals:

   • Investigations identified two of the attackers as Pakistani nationals, Ali Bhai alias Talha and Asif Fauji. Wikipedia

3. Role of Former Pakistani Commando:

   • Hashim Moosa, a former member of Pakistan’s Special Service Group and now associated with LeT, is suspected to be the mastermind behind the attack. Wikipedia

4. Digital and Forensic Evidence:

   • Indian investigators have traced digital footprints and forensic evidence to safe houses in Muzaffarabad and Karachi, suggesting logistical support from Pakistan-based operatives. Wikipedia

5. Satellite Imagery Requests:

   • A surge in requests for high-resolution satellite imagery of the Pahalgam area was noted two months prior to the attack, coinciding with the involvement of a Pakistani geospatial firm linked to previous illicit activities. Wikipedia+1The Times of India+1

6. Statements from Indian Leadership:

   • Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned Pakistan's involvement, stating that any future dialogue would focus solely on terrorism and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. The Economic Times

7. Retaliatory Military Actions:

   • In response to the attack, India launched "Operation Sindoor," targeting terror-linked sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, including strongholds of LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammed. Wikipedia+3Indiatimes+3Wikipedia+3

Conclusion

While Pakistan has officially denied involvement, the combination of claims by groups linked to Pakistan, involvement of Pakistani nationals, digital and forensic evidence, and statements from Indian officials collectively suggest a significant connection between Pakistan-based terror outfits and the April 2025 Pahalgam attack.

[EnterTheVoid]

3 hours ago, Lord said:

Chatgpt 

 

 

 

Fair call. Hard to disagree.

[Chaos]

7 hours ago, Lone Wolf said:

India's failure to convey its narrative effectively on foreign platforms has definitely constrained us.

 

There is general I don't care consensus in Indian circles about this area of warfare.

We are slowly catching up...and trust me our response is lot better than in Feb 2019.  That was a dark period when you look into foreign media outlets and our narrative was nowhere to be 

Edited May 13, 2025 by Chaos

[jf1gp_1]

Now that I am past my initial disappointment of announcing ceasefire sooner than wanted I think it doesn't matter who is winning the narrative war.

 

Pakistani in position of power know who was controlling ground action. By the 4th day India was hitting at will with no show of resistance. They are happy hitting few rafale , even if true, for India it's few hrs of gst collected. For pakistan the entire 1b loan and more will go into fixing the damages. 

[MechEng]

11 hours ago, goose said:

Make this go viral !

 

 

 

The irony here is that now Taliban is pro-India.