G_B_ Posted May 14 Posted May 14 Barring Punjab, all the BJP defences where the BJP will aim to get between 10% to 20% of the vote by fighting alone (looks like it). I expect Cong to pick up Punjab as the AAP gov is facing incumbency issues and Akalis and BJP are not in alliance (as of writing) But the jewel in the crown is as always UP. Talking to people, the SP alliance is ahead at the moment. They have built a strong social base, adding SC and BC groups to the Muslim Yadav core base. Yogi remains very popular, but there is heavy incumbency against most BJP MLA. The state unit needs a massive refresh in Q4 2026 + schemes aimed at farmers. This is my reading of the situation. Its been done before by the BJP in states like Maharashtra and Haryana. But UP is going to have to be a salvage job with a focus on turnout in election management. singhvivek141 and coffee_rules 2
vayuu1 Posted May 14 Posted May 14 1 hour ago, G_B_ said: Barring Punjab, all the BJP defences where the BJP will aim to get between 10% to 20% of the vote by fighting alone (looks like it). I expect Cong to pick up Punjab as the AAP gov is facing incumbency issues and Akalis and BJP are not in alliance (as of writing) But the jewel in the crown is as always UP. Talking to people, the SP alliance is ahead at the moment. They have built a strong social base, adding SC and BC groups to the Muslim Yadav core base. Yogi remains very popular, but there is heavy incumbency against most BJP MLA. The state unit needs a massive refresh in Q4 2026 + schemes aimed at farmers. This is my reading of the situation. Its been done before by the BJP in states like Maharashtra and Haryana. But UP is going to have to be a salvage job with a focus on turnout in election management. Bjp will win UP the sc and obc situation that happened in 2024 was because of rss backing out , BJP voters being too assured of 370+ seats hence didn't came out in large numbers,a whole lobby trying to sabotage Yogi and offcourse savidhan badal denge,bjp has since then learned their lessons ,yes their is some anger against some mla's but bjp is now looking to finish namazwadi's once and for all . ravishingravi 1
straighttalk Posted May 14 Posted May 14 Which of these states will have SIT voter engineering implemented or already implemented?
G_B_ Posted May 14 Author Posted May 14 10 hours ago, vayuu1 said: Bjp will win UP the sc and obc situation that happened in 2024 was because of rss backing out , BJP voters being too assured of 370+ seats hence didn't came out in large numbers,a whole lobby trying to sabotage Yogi and offcourse savidhan badal denge,bjp has since then learned their lessons ,yes their is some anger against some mla's but bjp is now looking to finish namazwadi's once and for all . Lets see....
coffee_rules Posted May 15 Posted May 15 (edited) 3 hours ago, G_B_ said: Lets see.... Why? You have some insider information? The way every party is trying to. Impress Brahmin votes , it seems like there’s a huge water base ((14%)of, to take advantage of . UGC is a setback for BJP hence they’re trying to garner dalitsi with Ambedkar PR Work. UP has to be won with Hindu vote consolidation under Yogi and RSS. Edited May 15 by coffee_rules
rangeelaraja Posted May 15 Posted May 15 (edited) Bhai mere @G_B_ 2029 Lok Sabha ka thread mein kholunga. Pehle se bol raha hoon Edited May 15 by rangeelaraja G_B_, coffee_rules, ravishingravi and 1 other 4
vayuu1 Posted May 15 Posted May 15 2 hours ago, coffee_rules said: Why? You have some insider information? The way every party is trying to. Impress Brahmin votes , it seems like there’s a huge water base ((14%)of, to take advantage of . UGC is a setback for BJP hence they’re trying to garner dalitsi with Ambedkar PR Work. UP has to be won with Hindu vote consolidation under Yogi and RSS. Let's be clear yogi ain't implementing UGC infact supreme court interfering in this matter actually saved BJP coffee_rules 1
Gollum Posted May 15 Posted May 15 4 hours ago, rangeelaraja said: Bhai mere @G_B_ 2029 Lok Sabha ka thread mein kholunga. Pehle se bol raha hoon @IndianRenegade anna nahi? Woh kiye toh BJP 400 paar. G_B_, coffee_rules and Pratik77 1 2
randomGuy Posted May 15 Posted May 15 12 minutes ago, Gollum said: @IndianRenegade anna nahi? Woh kiye toh BJP 400 paar. BJP voters should get the chance not TVK voters
LordPrabhzy Posted May 15 Posted May 15 sick of this perpetual state election cycles... One nation one election is the need. Politicians need to spend time governing not election campaigning Mariyam and coffee_rules 2
G_B_ Posted May 15 Author Posted May 15 2 hours ago, Gollum said: @IndianRenegade anna nahi? Woh kiye toh BJP 400 paar. done and done. Maybe we can split it by phase. Gollum 1
coffee_rules Posted May 15 Posted May 15 5 hours ago, LordPrabhzy said: sick of this perpetual state election cycles... One nation one election is the need. Politicians need to spend time governing not election campaigning So true, Modi 2.0 after the Ram mandir and article 370, nothing got done because of state elections in each year. The farm laws, CAA, UCC, waqf all got pushed over to 3.0 it is useless because BJP has a minority government. And even now because of elections, some of the key laws are getting pushed out to the next election in 2027, probably early part of the year. Lord 1
Gollum Posted May 15 Posted May 15 5 hours ago, randomGuy said: BJP voters should get the chance not TVK voters Think he is BJP voter/supporter. randomGuy 1
Gollum Posted May 15 Posted May 15 3 hours ago, G_B_ said: done and done. Maybe we can split it by phase. Go ahead boss. I won't be on ICF that time, will take sanyaas from all this forum stuff very soon. Mariyam 1
G_B_ Posted May 15 Author Posted May 15 1 minute ago, Gollum said: Go ahead boss. I won't be on ICF that time, will take sanyaas from all this forum stuff very soon. Hope all well? Gollum 1
Gollum Posted May 15 Posted May 15 Just now, G_B_ said: Hope all well? Yes, all is well. Just work stuff, time constraints. G_B_ 1
randomGuy Posted May 15 Posted May 15 3 minutes ago, Gollum said: Go ahead boss. I won't be on ICF that time, will take sanyaas from all this forum stuff very soon. 1 minute ago, G_B_ said: Hope all well? @Gollum is an all-in type of personality. Making long posts is draining and feels not satisfying at the end of the day. Ofcourse his long posts are great. But Lamba tikne ke liye mera suggestion hai ki shorter posts karo. Gollum 1
singhvivek141 Posted May 15 Posted May 15 On 5/14/2026 at 4:10 PM, G_B_ said: Barring Punjab, all the BJP defences where the BJP will aim to get between 10% to 20% of the vote by fighting alone (looks like it). I expect Cong to pick up Punjab as the AAP gov is facing incumbency issues and Akalis and BJP are not in alliance (as of writing) But the jewel in the crown is as always UP. Talking to people, the SP alliance is ahead at the moment. They have built a strong social base, adding SC and BC groups to the Muslim Yadav core base. Yogi remains very popular, but there is heavy incumbency against most BJP MLA. The state unit needs a massive refresh in Q4 2026 + schemes aimed at farmers. This is my reading of the situation. Its been done before by the BJP in states like Maharashtra and Haryana. But UP is going to have to be a salvage job with a focus on turnout in election management. UP is always a conundrum, its such a massive and diverse state that its extremely tough to predict which way the voters will move. As you said, Yogi is extremely popular and loved by people of Up, but most of his ministers dont enjoy that luxury. There were several reports post the Lok Sabha election where Yogi was ignored by BJP in distribution of seats and that lead to them falling short of the majority. But I dont think the pattern will be repeated in state election, BJP knows very well that the charisma of Yogi is extremely important for them to win in UP and gain majority in Rajya Sabha. For Yogi too, since he is being seen as a next in line after Modi, this election holds massive value. If he is able to knock out 3rd term...there is little doubt that the may end up as a face of BJP in 2029 LS election. Though in order to happen, he will have to cross two hurdles 1. Alignment from RSS: Yogi not being from RSS but from Gorakhnath math may take more effort in convincing the RSS karyakartas. Though whoever I have spoken to, they belive Yogi is perhaps more Hindu than anyone else from RSS. 2. Amit Shah factor: I dont want it to turn into another Advani-Modi episode...Advani wanted to become PM...but he doesnt had that acceptance. Same goes for Shah.
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