Sweden says its no-lockdown strategy proving effective against coronavirus

[someone]

Vietnam has been relatively successful and it has an opposite strategy as Sweden. So there is no perfect strategy and we need to tailor our own. And it's very fluid situation, take Singapore whose model was seen as a benchmark yet it is now seemingly in trouble.

 

And is herd immunity applicable for us? It is about having a large number of infected people but who are also recovered, and thereby limiting and difficulty for the virus spread to uninfected people.  With our population, our numbers would be huge and thus catastrophic.

[Mariyam]

20 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

If we are young, you and me getting the virus should be seen as inevitable. Our fatality chances from the virus would be 0.01% or 0.0001%, I don't know...there is good chance we won't even know when we got it and became immune already.

 

During the time the herd (country) acquires immunity, the herd would need to take care of its old (keep them segregated as much as possible).

Get hold of the interview by Dr Gangakhedkar from ICMR on news18. Some journalist raised these same set of points and asked if the lock down is an overkill, especially as we are a relatively young population.

His answer was that, in urban India, due to an exceedingly sedentary lifestyle, the onset of co-morbidities has shifted by nearly 8 years since they started tracking this data, sometime in the 70s. Example (his), there is a fair prevalence of diabetics in their mid to late 30s in these cities. 50 years ago, a diabetes before 45 would be unheard of. This is just one type of co-morbidity.

He is of the opinion that the urban hot spots have to be locked down, maybe so for an even longer period of time.

Furthermore, he said that it would take India a longer time to develop any kind of herd immunity, More so than a UK. Simply because we are that much more diverse genetically and in food habits. I didn't quite understand the specific scientific logic here. 

Let me try and link you with that interview if I find it on youtube.

 

[randomGuy]

4 minutes ago, Mariyam said:

Get hold of the interview by Dr Gangakhedkar from ICMR on news18. Some journalist raised these same set of points and asked if the lock down is an overkill, especially as we are a relatively young population.

His answer was that, in urban India, due to an exceedingly sedentary lifestyle, the onset of co-morbidities has shifted by nearly 8 years since they started tracking this data, sometime in the 70s. Example (his), there is a fair prevalence of diabetics in their mid to late 30s in these cities. 50 years ago, a diabetes before 45 would be unheard of. This is just one type of co-morbidity.

He is of the opinion that the urban hot spots have to be locked down, maybe so for an even longer period of time.

Furthermore, he said that it would take India a longer time to develop any kind of herd immunity, More so than a UK. Simply because we are that much more diverse genetically and in food habits. I didn't quite understand the specific scientific logic here. 

Let me try and link you with that interview if I find it on youtube.

 

I think I have seen that one buddy.. the one with a lady. Not something I disagree with, the point of early onset of co-morbidities, but yet 75% of people dying are over 60 in India(Google)....

 

You may say but its 85% in newyork? But that is because Indians over age 60 are 10% (just 8.6% as per 2011 census)  of population and New Yorkers over age 60 could be 20% of the population.

 

I am thinking what are the people going to think exactly 20 days from now(lol) when I think covid-19 will vanish from the headlines because I believe by then USA and Europe would have lifted their lockdown and gone back to work and probably seeing them India would have opened up also.

[The Dark Horse]

11 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

I am thinking what are the people going to think exactly 20 days from now(lol) when I think covid-19 will vanish from the headlines because I believe by then USA and Europe would have lifted their lockdown and gone back to work and probably seeing them India would have opened up also.

Singapore has announced lockdown till June 1. If a developed city state is so cautious then we must be even more careful. I agree that our economy and the poor can't stand it anymore but steps should be gradual and cautious rather than going all out and undoing all the good work done so far.

[randomGuy]

53 minutes ago, someone said:

Vietnam has been relatively successful and it has an opposite strategy as Sweden. So there is no perfect strategy and we need to tailor our own. And it's very fluid situation, take Singapore whose model was seen as a benchmark yet it is now seemingly in trouble.

 

And is herd immunity applicable for us? It is about having a large number of infected people but who are also recovered, and thereby limiting and difficulty for the virus spread to uninfected people.  With our population, our numbers would be huge and thus catastrophic.

Here another Indian doc saying we have to learn to live along corona  just like other diseases , don't fear it and get on with our lives

He's a desi doc. because prolly you won't take word from an angrez.

Edited April 22, 2020 by randomGuy

[beetle]

https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/a-herd-immunity-strategy-could-actually-work-in-youthful-india/articleshow/75285241.cms

 

[Autonomous]

2 minutes ago, beetle said:

https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/a-herd-immunity-strategy-could-actually-work-in-youthful-india/articleshow/75285241.cms

 

Oh bhai abhi tak WHO keh rahi hai ke no evidence of immunity in everyone who recovers. 

[randomGuy]

13 minutes ago, Autonomous said:

Oh bhai abhi tak WHO keh rahi hai ke no evidence of immunity in everyone who recovers. 

Behen

[Autonomous]

29 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

Behen

Sh!t.

 

Maaf karna behan, maazrat. @beetle

Edited April 22, 2020 by Autonomous

[rising]

Sweden is developed country and they are doing is based on science and assumptions  and they will go shutdown if they feeling things are going out of hand. UK tried  same strategy but had change tactics when  health system started overwhelm   and I think Indian health system is not god as UK and will overwhelmed still faster 

 

Whats works in Sweden may work India so you have careful and biggest problem with heard immunity it is a assumption we have immunity and there so research confirm which might take bit of time  if  that not case you will in trouble for countries going with that strategy  and bigger trouble for populated country such as India 

 

So I think India should lift lock down staggered manner  first  they could concentrate on getting back food & agriculture related service up  to full scale so we don't go into food crisis  and then slowly concentrate other sectors 

 

[someone]

8 minutes ago, rising said:

Whats works in Sweden may work India so you have careful and biggest problem with heard immunity it is a assumption we have immunity and there so research confirm which might take bit of time  if  that not case you will in trouble for countries going with that strategy  and bigger trouble for populated country such as India

What is herd immunity for India? I estimate it means around 60% of population gets infected, and most recover, but yet around 1% of them die. Now, this 1%,  would still be 1.3Bx0.6x1% would still be +7M deaths. That's a significant number.

[randomGuy]

4 minutes ago, someone said:

What is herd immunity for India? I estimate it means around 60% of population gets infected, and most recover, but yet around 1% of them die. Now, this 1%,  would still be 1.3Bx0.6x1% would still be +7M deaths. That's a significant number.

actual number of people who got inflected (with or without knowing) and developed immunity at this point could be 20 lacs(only a hunch) ...100 actuals for every 1 reported, so multiply 20k by 100...700 deaths comes to 0.035% or 2-3 lac deaths for herd immunity.

 

20 lac could be overestimate or underestimate but the point is, don't take 20k as anywhere near actual no. of cases. Wait for fatality rate analysis.

 

Do you know only 1500 swedes died till now (1 cr population) yet they are talking herd immunity? Read somewhere that 1/3rd of Stockholm is already immune by now...it may be wrong...let us wait for all this analysis...let us wait for German, newyork antibody test results.

[kosingh]

10 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

actual number of people who got inflected (with or without knowing) and developed immunity at this point could be 20 lacs(only a hunch) ...100 actuals for every 1 reported, so multiply 20k by 100...700 deaths comes to 0.035% or 2-3 lac deaths for herd immunity.

 

20 lac could be overestimate or underestimate but the point is, don't take 20k as anywhere near actual no. of cases. Wait for fatality rate analysis.

 

Do you know only 1500 swedes died till now (1 cr population) yet they are talking herd immunity? Read somewhere that 1/3rd of Stockholm is already immune by now...it may be wrong...let us wait for all this analysis...let us wait for German, newyork antibody test results.

 

15,000 people in New York City are already dead from the virus. If your estimate of 0.035% fatality rate is accurate, this would mean that more than 300% of New York City residents have been infected. This of course is mathematically impossible.

We know that New York City has a population of  8.4 million and we know that 15,000 New York City residents are already dead form this. This  means that 0.18% of New York City is already dead. If you assume that not 100% of New York CIty residents are infected, the case fatality rate becomes higher than 0.18%.

[rising]

11 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

actual number of people who got inflected (with or without knowing) and developed immunity at this point could be 20 lacs(only a hunch) ...100 actuals for every 1 reported, so multiply 20k by 100...700 deaths comes to 0.035% or 2-3 lac deaths for herd immunity.

 

20 lac could be overestimate or underestimate but the point is, don't take 20k as anywhere near actual no. of cases. Wait for fatality rate analysis.

 

Do you know only 1500 swedes died till now (1 cr population) yet they are talking herd immunity? Read somewhere that 1/3rd of Stockholm is already immune by now...it may be wrong...let us wait for all this analysis...let us wait for German, newyork antibody test results.

Okay First heard immunity is assumption as immunity is not confirmed but let assume its for one year immunity you have  and India goes for Hear immunity and India can handle 2,00,000 daily infections(5% needing ICU which is 10,000 day) so  there would (2,00,000*365)= 7.30,00,000 in year and its around 60% now but people who had infection start getting infected again so we are in round 2 again

My above statement is  is assuming lot of things like Immunity will be one year which might less which would be bad , it can through out life which would great for this strategy  but can't be sure without data over more period  and Strain doesn't  becomes less deadly or more deadly.  which can happen when there lot people getting infected it could mutate  

 

And what happened to the assumption that hot weather make virus less effective? if thats case should we try contain it by June before the rainy season begins? just putting out there 

 

 

[MechEng]

4 hours ago, randomGuy said:

@mishra @beetle @zen @rkt.india

@Singh bling @Alam_dar @kosingh

@MechEng @Autonomous

 

4 hours ago, Autonomous said:

Sounds like bullshit. 

 

Think about you carrying the virus and giving it to your old man?

Not a good strategy. What if all airports re open in the world and infected Swedes pass the virus to people from different nationalities causing the outbreak again?

[MechEng]

3 hours ago, randomGuy said:

I think I have seen that one buddy.. the one with a lady. Not something I disagree with, the point of early onset of co-morbidities, but yet 75% of people dying are over 60 in India(Google)....

 

You may say but its 85% in newyork? But that is because Indians over age 60 are 10% (just 8.6% as per 2011 census)  of population and New Yorkers over age 60 could be 20% of the population.

 

I am thinking what are the people going to think exactly 20 days from now(lol) when I think covid-19 will vanish from the headlines because I believe by then USA and Europe would have lifted their lockdown and gone back to work and probably seeing them India would have opened up also.

Not so soon, I don't know about Europe but people in US are mentally hit by this pandemic. Things won't go back to normal any soon.

[kosingh]

1 minute ago, MechEng said:

Not so soon, I don't know about Europe but people in US are mentally hit by this pandemic. Things won't go back to normal any soon.

Most people are mentally hit. But around here in Virginia there are plenty of people going about life as normal. 

 

But I agree. Simply "opening things up" isn't magically going to restore the economy.  People are not going to be flooding into restaurants, bars, sports events, etc just because the government has opened things up.

[MechEng]

3 minutes ago, kosingh said:

Most people are mentally hit. But around here in Virginia there are plenty of people going about life as normal. 

 

But I agree. Simply "opening things up" isn't magically going to restore the economy.  People are not going to be flooding into restaurants, bars, sports events, etc just because the government has opened things up.

CDC chief said that the outbreak during the coming flu season in winter can be worse than what we are seeing now in the US. This can be seen as only a theory but until there is a fool proof vaccine for this, things are unlikely to go back to normal and economy will take a hit.

 

India is lucky that that there are no fierce mid west like winters over there even in places like Kashmir.

[randomGuy]

6 hours ago, kosingh said:

 

15,000 people in New York City are already dead from the virus. If your estimate of 0.035% fatality rate is accurate, this would mean that more than 300% of New York City residents have been infected. This of course is mathematically impossible.

We know that New York City has a population of  8.4 million and we know that 15,000 New York City residents are already dead form this. This  means that 0.18% of New York City is already dead. If you assume that not 100% of New York CIty residents are infected, the case fatality rate becomes higher than 0.18%.

Fatality rates should vary from place to place..

Density

Weather

Percentage of Senior citizens

For us the comparison should be Pakistan.

 

[rkt.india]

8 hours ago, kosingh said:

 

15,000 people in New York City are already dead from the virus. If your estimate of 0.035% fatality rate is accurate, this would mean that more than 300% of New York City residents have been infected. This of course is mathematically impossible.

We know that New York City has a population of  8.4 million and we know that 15,000 New York City residents are already dead form this. This  means that 0.18% of New York City is already dead. If you assume that not 100% of New York CIty residents are infected, the case fatality rate becomes higher than 0.18%.

Colder places will have more casualties. Pneumonic symptoms become more fatal in cold for sure.