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coffee_rules

TN Elections

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23 hours ago, coffee_rules said:

 

They keep swapping each other every election almost. Without Jaya, it is tough to beat DMK. As seen in 2019, TN is seen as a model lab for anti-Modiism. So, there will be a  lot of it come April-May. Still TN is doing v well as a state compared to others. DMK/ADMKs work with rich landlords on a caste basis and keep any farmer issues subdued. Industries too work with both parties. 

 

 

A DMK sweep like 1996 is in BJP interest. Barrier for BJP in TN is AIADMK not the DMK. A worst case scenario is DMK limping over the line with AIADMK getting more than 50. We are seeing in Telangana that BJP is flourishing now that TDP is out of the picture.

 

If a 1996 style sweep happens odds are EPS and OPS have lost their seats. Much easier for the BJP to deal with the rest trying to save themselves from corruption cases. In 1996 the AIADMK and Jaya  were lucky central politics were such that there was no dominant party with a series of cobbled governments from 96 to 99. 

 

Its exactly how you break a duopoly. Ensure one of the parties is decimated and take over the space.

 

Re Prashant Kishor

 

MK stalin wants to avoid a situation he was put in by MK and cement the position of his heir. Stalin will be close to 70 and is known to have health issues. This means giving positions to U stalin followers as MLAs and building his own support base. But it also means side-lining any old guard who may have their own power structure. Who better than a big bad Brahmin outsider than Prashant Kishor to take the blame. Works for Kishor as well given he is also working with TMC in WB. Even if he loses that he can keep his image intact by pointing to TN.

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and mark my words. if dmk+ crosses 200 than there is a very good chance Kanimozhi (who has already been side-lined partially) will end up like Alagiri. MK stalin will not allow any power structure to challenge his son. Likes of Durai Murugan and Baalu are 80. (or close to 80). 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Real McCoy said:

dmk top brass dont detest brahmins. they want to portray the brahmin as a villain type to get votes. its the people who vote for dmk that gets tangled up in the hate created by the party

 

Arent the dmk top brass mostly telugu.....

 

 

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9 hours ago, G_B_ said:

and mark my words. if dmk+ crosses 200 than there is a very good chance Kanimozhi (who has already been side-lined partially) will end up like Alagiri. MK stalin will not allow any power structure to challenge his son. Likes of Durai Murugan and Baalu are 80. (or close to 80). 

 

 

Not aware if Stalin & KaniMozhi are half siblings?  KaniMozhi may join forces with Alagiri then

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59 minutes ago, ash said:

DMK is going to sweep. ADMK can survive if they keep BJP away . BJP is like covid in TN, nobody wants them 

 

Best post here.

 

ADMK can manage to save their party and scrounge up some seats if they ditch BJP. If an ally of 25+ years aka Shiv Sena ditched them, then admk must really introspect whether they would want to go down the same road. Nobody likes a bully. End of story.

Edited by Stan AF
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2 hours ago, Stan AF said:

Best post here.

 

ADMK can manage to save their party and scrounge up some seats if they ditch BJP. If an ally of 25+ years aka Shiv Sena ditched them, then admk must really introspect whether they would want to go down the same road. Nobody likes a bully. End of story.


In politics, there are only opportunities, risks and leverage. When you don’t have the leverage you feel bullied. When you have it, you dictate terms. 
 

BJP is going to make it biggest dent in TN this time. To win however will still require one or two more cycles. Not because they are good, but people need alternatives now that major personalities are gone from TN politics. 

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1 hour ago, ravishingravi said:


In politics, there are only opportunities, risks and leverage. When you don’t have the leverage you feel bullied. When you have it, you dictate terms. 
 

BJP is going to make it biggest dent in TN this time. To win however will still require one or two more cycles. Not because they are good, but people need alternatives now that major personalities are gone from TN politics. 

Nah. Reality here is there is not much ground level support for BJP. The organisation is piss poor, there are no strong local leaders and the language barrier is too high that people like Amit Shah cannot make a difference here.  There are some Brahmin dominated areas where they can get their deposit, but without an alliance, BJP will not even get deposit in all 234 seats

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1 hour ago, ash said:

Nah. Reality here is there is not much ground level support for BJP. The organisation is piss poor, there are no strong local leaders and the language barrier is too high that people like Amit Shah cannot make a difference here.  There are some Brahmin dominated areas where they can get their deposit, but without an alliance, BJP will not even get deposit in all 234 seats

Not so simple. Back in 2014, TN would be seen more "feasible" than WB. Thus, it's all about reaching the "critical mass", and being the alternative party.

 

The situation is still on the rise for BJP there, and they don't want the "untouchable" factor anymore. Unlike WB, even during ABV, there were certain areas where BJP had good presence. Today, their local state team is a good and young mix of different communities and professions.

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23 minutes ago, someone said:

Not so simple. Back in 2014, TN would be seen more "feasible" than WB. Thus, it's all about reaching the "critical mass", and being the alternative party.

 

The situation is still on the rise for BJP there, and they don't want the "untouchable" factor anymore. Unlike WB, even during ABV, there were certain areas where BJP had good presence. Today, their local state team is a good and young mix of different communities and professions.

 

 

It is also a misconception that bjp gets brahmin votes. In 2016 and 2019 brahmin votes went to aiadmk and kamal hassan.

 

Bjp in tn is built on nadar votes in south and obc votes in kongu belt.

 

This rhetoric is 234 deposits also needs to be squashed. Bjp will retain depoit with ease in all 6 seats of Kanyakumari. As they did in 2016. Both congress and bjp are bigger than dmk and aiadmk in that district. Recent local polls when each party fought seperately saw bjp emerge as slp.

 

Its also highly ironic that dravidian supporters call bjp a bully to allies. Its exactly what the dmk and aiadmk have been to small tn based parties. Dmdk faced thr brunt of this post 2011 from Jayalalitha being the latest example.

 

I never got this from dravidian supporters. In lok sabha they want coalition gov etc. But when it comes to tn they want absolute majorities for parties dmk or aiadmk. But all means vote whichever way you want. But it does reek of having your cake and eating it...

 

 

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1 hour ago, G_B_ said:

 

 

It is also a misconception that bjp gets brahmin votes. In 2016 and 2019 brahmin votes went to aiadmk and kamal hassan.

 

Bjp in tn is built on nadar votes in south and obc votes in kongu belt.

 

This rhetoric is 234 deposits also needs to be squashed. Bjp will retain depoit with ease in all 6 seats of Kanyakumari. As they did in 2016. Both congress and bjp are bigger than dmk and aiadmk in that district. Recent local polls when each party fought seperately saw bjp emerge as slp.

 

Its also highly ironic that dravidian supporters call bjp a bully to allies. Its exactly what the dmk and aiadmk have been to small tn based parties. Dmdk faced thr brunt of this post 2011 from Jayalalitha being the latest example.

 

I never got this from dravidian supporters. In lok sabha they want coalition gov etc. But when it comes to tn they want absolute majorities for parties dmk or aiadmk. But all means vote whichever way you want. But it does reek of having your cake and eating it...

 

 

UP population is 23 cr in 2020 , whereas TN is abt 7.8cr.

 

Lok sabha seats for UP : 80

For TN: 39

 

Looking forward to this ratio being fixed soon. Are you? 

Edited by randomGuy
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Building on my post above if the BJP do decide to go alone.

 

(a) They need to aim to win more than 5.4% which the PMK got in 2016. This will make them the third largest party in TN after the AIADMK and DMK.  The congress due to alliance with the DMK is systematically being eroded from the ground (whatever is left). The PMK lost deposit in all 212 seats and kept their deposit in around 20 seats, Within those one could say they were close enough to the winner in 5-6 seats. That figure for the BJP with 3.57% in seats contested (rest they gave to NDA smaller allies which was a mistake) was saved deposit in 8 seats and were close in 2-3 seats (mostly in KK district). 

 

(b) In 2016 the pan TN BJP vote was 3-3.2%. Since that point the BJP has attracted some very good candidates. Somebody like Ku Ka Selvam in Chennai wont win but is probably going to poll 8-10% on his own strength. Nagender too is a strong AIADMK import. Many DMK candidates who miss out to seat sharing or are side-lined for prince Uday's gang too should be asked to contest with the BJP symbol. So if the cards are played right IMO the BJP can overhaul the figure of the PMK in 2016. Its not a big jump to make.

 

(c) Have an understanding with AIADMK such that they for eg put christian candidates in KK district to split the vote. While BJP will still lose its an outside chance. Key is DMK Congress alliance. If DMK and Cong dont have alliance BJP will extract seats in KK district.

 

If alliance with AIADMK

 

(a) Demand 25-30 winnable seats. and hope they can win a seat atleast. In Ls 2019 BJP was leading in 1 assembly segment. 

 

(b) Having BJP in there does fulfil the reason for the 1996 type sweep. While BJP vote share in TN will increase, the party just like the VCK and PMK attracts a negative vote.

 

On the whole its a tough one. Going alone allows the BJP to attract better talent of those who missed out on seats and expand their footprint. It also means that AIADMK cannot blame BJP for the loss. But it means AIADMK will perform better which means stripping them post poll will be harder. If we go with the AIADMK BJP will be blamed by AIADMK leadership like EPS as an excuse for their cadre. But with a 1996 type sweep it would mean the AIADMK will be much easier to take down.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, ash said:

Nah. Reality here is there is not much ground level support for BJP. The organisation is piss poor, there are no strong local leaders and the language barrier is too high that people like Amit Shah cannot make a difference here.  There are some Brahmin dominated areas where they can get their deposit, but without an alliance, BJP will not even get deposit in all 234 seats


The learned Brahmins in TN are more anti Brahmins than one can imagine. The self hate has been deeply instilled from a very young age. It’s also trendy to call oneself an atheists. 
 

BJP is not depending on Brahmin vote rest assured. I agree they are not in the game at this point. But there are openings here for sure over 5-10 year period. 

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2 hours ago, randomGuy said:

UP population is 23 cr in 2020 , whereas TN is abt 7.8cr.

 

Lok sabha seats for UP : 80

For TN: 39

 

Looking forward to this ratio being fixed soon. Are you? 


I am from TN or at least a part of me is from TN. To their point, shouldn’t GDP per capital be the criteria ? 
 

It is shocking how North Indian centric our discourse is when in fact south have done a better job of managing their states. Take any parameters. 

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4 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:


I am from TN or at least a part of me is from TN. To their point, shouldn’t GDP per capital be the criteria ? 
 

It is shocking how North Indian centric our discourse is when in fact south have done a better job of managing their states. Take any parameters. 

1.No country has GDP per capita criteria . If you go down that lane, cities vs villages GDP per capita debate would open up.. frankly it is an idiotic idea. Incrementally, the gdp growth, the demographics would be provided by the north

2. South is marginally better GDP wise, not necessarily in quality of life. I would prefer staying in North and possibly never in TN, no offense to you.

3. People stand in queues to leave South India to western Europe, US Australia etc. same as they do in the north.

 

 

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Support AIADMK but no way are they winning this time, 2016 victory itself was surprising but then their tallest leader was alive and kicking. BJP state unit is too inept to get behind, and anyway why would even hardcore BJP supporters waste votes on them when AIADMK has been such a strong ally in Centre? Don't get the Bengal comparison, TMC/CPM/INC in Bengal are hostile, anti-national/dharmic entities who farm illegal BD votebank......AIADMK in its present version is somewhat a refined, regional version of BJP with its own positives/flaws, importantly not anti-national like DMK (for instance check its official reaction post 370 abrogation ). 

 

UAPA, 370, TT, farm bills, Ayodhya, Pak policy etc., only one party has been supporting BJP unconditionally. During RJB days when media/ecosystem was against saffron only 2 other parties sent construction material for Ram temple, Bal Thackeray's SS and Amma's party. When Modi was a pariah before 2013 Amma was one of his very few public backers, don't forget. Sure there has sometimes been friction between the parties but that is a norm in Indian politics, even BJP has had internal friction with competing camps.

 

Unless AIADMK/BJP form an alliance, vote for BJP is a vote for DMK.

 

I wish Bengal gets a party like AIADMK, a regional, pro-dharmic, unabashedly nationalist, RW party with sons of soil leading the charge. The fire that Tapan Ghosh started must reach its logical conclusion. Atm too many haramis from TMC defecting to state unit of BJP and they are simply opportunists with no ideology, you think they'll ever allow NRC in the state? 

Edited by Gollum
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