ravishingravi Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, gattaca said: situation is bad in south now. Only northern states are improving. Another two weeks. Southern states will also get there. They are two to three weeks behind.
rkt.india Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, ravishingravi said: Another two weeks. Southern states will also get there. They are two to three weeks behind. Maharashtra still has lot of cases. Will take at least a month for them.
jf1gp_1 Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, rkt.india said: Maharashtra still has lot of cases. Will take at least a month for them. Today we should see a news article about how traders in delhi want lockdown to be increased by 1 more week and Keju bhai increasing it through a tweet tomorrow.
rkt.india Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 1 hour ago, jf1gp_1 said: Today we should see a news article about how traders in delhi want lockdown to be increased by 1 more week and Keju bhai increasing it through a tweet tomorrow. Lockdown is required.
ravishingravi Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, rkt.india said: Lockdown is required. Perhaps the most non scientific approach with no results to show with no benchmarks. Vivek92 1
rkt.india Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, ravishingravi said: Perhaps the most non scientific approach with no results to show with no benchmarks. Results are there to see. Cases are going down since the lockdown. Without lockdown, people will be out coming in contact and cases will keep rising.
ravishingravi Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 When you are too busy blaming society and neighbours and don’t bother to help your own family. Terrible situation in TN. It’s getting out of hand. AIADMK looking good with every passing day. Vivek92 1
urbestfriend Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 3 hours ago, ravishingravi said: Perhaps the most non scientific approach with no results to show with no benchmarks. If lockdown is non-scientific approach, what is scientific approach? Ask any virologist or immunologist, they support lockdown. Does that mean they are anti-science? Everyone knows virus can be contained by not allowing to transmit, and virus mutates only when it is allowed to transmit. Healthcare system of almost all states under severe pressure, imagine how many deaths if there is no lockdown due to non-availability of healthcare. Lord and Clarke 1 1
vvvslaxman Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 2 hours ago, urbestfriend said: If lockdown is non-scientific approach, what is scientific approach? Ask any virologist or immunologist, they support lockdown. Does that mean they are anti-science? Everyone knows virus can be contained by not allowing to transmit, and virus mutates only when it is allowed to transmit. Healthcare system of almost all states under severe pressure, imagine how many deaths if there is no lockdown due to non-availability of healthcare. That is how spanish flu was contained in many parts of US in 1918. Actually in some states doctors made the call on the lock down. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2020/04/28/the-dr-fauci-of-the-1918-spanish-flu/?sh=76ff6eb63547
vvvslaxman Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 Community spread is the biggest reason why the cases keep going up. This not only increases the cases. It also overwhelms the healthcare system. People who have health problems other than COVID are also suffering because of it. Many are being turned away.
ravishingravi Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 (edited) 7 hours ago, urbestfriend said: If lockdown is non-scientific approach, what is scientific approach? Ask any virologist or immunologist, they support lockdown. Does that mean they are anti-science? Everyone knows virus can be contained by not allowing to transmit, and virus mutates only when it is allowed to transmit. Healthcare system of almost all states under severe pressure, imagine how many deaths if there is no lockdown due to non-availability of healthcare. So, show me the data. In India. Now bear in mind, last year we didn’t have a lockdown. We had a shutdown. We are not doing that again. Now we had a lockdown in Maharashtra for 45 days. Virus takes one week to incubate. So give or take it takes 25 days for one full cycle. When we started the lockdown we had 55,000 cases. Now we have 40,000 cases. After 45 days. So, show me a good evidence of lockdown working in India. We have not killed Corona but certainly managed to kill business and daily wage workers. Lockdown is luxury for first world countries. For countries like India, with each lockdown we are pushing large chunk of people into the abyss much worse than corona. Edited May 15, 2021 by ravishingravi
G_B_ Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 Quite a dip in pan india cases. The rate of decline is much faster than what i expected. Will wait for a week to see if trend is clear. But if it stays true then we will easily be beyond the second wave end of june. I also notice an uptick in the vaccination rate. First signs of light at the end of the tunnel...lets see if i am correct
G_B_ Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 10 hours ago, vvvslaxman said: Community spread is the biggest reason why the cases keep going up. This not only increases the cases. It also overwhelms the healthcare system. People who have health problems other than COVID are also suffering because of it. Many are being turned away. Our debt to gdp ratio touched 95% due to shutdown last year. A degree of localised lockdown is ok. But even states have been hesitant because of a strain on finances. The spanish flu killed 6% of pop in the second wave. This second covid wave wont even kill 0.5%. Multi desicion criteria involves making descions based on numerous pros and cons. Even if lockdowns work in reducing the load, the question here is do they work to enough to justify the financial blow.
Yoda-esque Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 Quite a dip in pan india cases. The rate of decline is much faster than what i expected. Will wait for a week to see if trend is clear. But if it stays true then we will easily be beyond the second wave end of june. I also notice an uptick in the vaccination rate. First signs of light at the end of the tunnel...lets see if i am correct I think high death rate is following the 2-3 week infection rate and will continue for next month.In fact , I feel we will see 4000+ per day for the next one month atleast.
G_B_ Posted May 15, 2021 Posted May 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Yoda-esque said: 22 minutes ago, G_B_ said: Quite a dip in pan india cases. The rate of decline is much faster than what i expected. Will wait for a week to see if trend is clear. But if it stays true then we will easily be beyond the second wave end of june. I also notice an uptick in the vaccination rate. First signs of light at the end of the tunnel...lets see if i am correct I think high death rate is following the 2-3 week infection rate and will continue for next month.In fact , I feel we will see 4000+ per day for the next one month atleast. Based on my back of the envelope calculations deaths lag cases by around 10 to 12 days. (Rudimentary time series models) We will see a dip in deaths towards the end of may.
vvvslaxman Posted May 16, 2021 Posted May 16, 2021 48 minutes ago, G_B_ said: Our debt to gdp ratio touched 95% due to shutdown last year. A degree of localised lockdown is ok. But even states have been hesitant because of a strain on finances. The spanish flu killed 6% of pop in the second wave. This second covid wave wont even kill 0.5%. Multi desicion criteria involves making descions based on numerous pros and cons. Even if lockdowns work in reducing the load, the question here is do they work to enough to justify the financial blow. AT this point it will save so many lives. Even today i heard a story where 2 year old lost both his parents and they were looking for adoption. There are many similar gut-wrenching stories. Transmission rate is higher this time. Hospitalization is significantly higher for the given number of cases compared to 1st wave. Warning was issued in January. Right about the time when India exported millions of vaccines and oxygen supply. What followed was complete collapse of healthcare system. 1000s of SOS messages are still flooding twitter. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/05/india-children-orphans-covid.html India never reached a point where they can completely lift the complete lock down. I don't think even USA has reached either. Surprising to see CDC lifting the mask requirements. https://www.movehub.com/blog/best-and-worst-covid-responses/#three Worst 5 countries to handle the covid Rank Country 1 USA 2 Brazil 3 India 4 Mexico 5 UK chewy 1
G_B_ Posted May 16, 2021 Posted May 16, 2021 38 minutes ago, vvvslaxman said: AT this point it will save so many lives. Even today i heard a story where 2 year old lost both his parents and they were looking for adoption. There are many similar gut-wrenching stories. Transmission rate is higher this time. Hospitalization is significantly higher for the given number of cases compared to 1st wave. Warning was issued in January. Right about the time when India exported millions of vaccines and oxygen supply. What followed was complete collapse of healthcare system. 1000s of SOS messages are still flooding twitter. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/05/india-children-orphans-covid.html India never reached a point where they can completely lift the complete lock down. I don't think even USA has reached either. Surprising to see CDC lifting the mask requirements. https://www.movehub.com/blog/best-and-worst-covid-responses/#three Worst 5 countries to handle the covid Rank Country 1 USA 2 Brazil 3 India 4 Mexico 5 UK these are absolute numbers. India has a pop roughly double the size of europe. Show me per capita figures. Based on absolute figures india is second only to the usa in vaccination jabs. Does that make india the second best state? India also exported vaccines cause there was hesitancy in taking the shot in early 2021. This was in jan 2021 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/20/indian-hesitancy-sets-back-worlds-biggest-covid-vaccination-drive You can thank the opposition for creating this situation by constantly questioning the Astra zeneca vaccine. Dont just post some random links with anecdotal evidence. ravishingravi and coffee_rules 2
vvvslaxman Posted May 16, 2021 Posted May 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, G_B_ said: these are absolute numbers. India has a pop roughly double the size of europe. Show me per capita figures. Based on absolute figures india is second only to the usa in vaccination jabs. Does that make india the second best state? India also exported vaccines cause there was hesitancy in taking the shot in early 2021. This was in jan 2021 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/20/indian-hesitancy-sets-back-worlds-biggest-covid-vaccination-drive You can thank the opposition for creating this situation by constantly questioning the Astra zeneca vaccine. Dont just post some random links with anecdotal evidence. Per capita is the excuse we conveniently hide behind any time we talk about record breaking "official numbers" of India. Ofcourse it is going to be lower in the second most populated country in the world. The countries with higher per capita covid are not the ones.flooding twitter with SOS messages. Essentially we blame the population, opposition parties, people who are reluctant to take vaccines not the party in Power. Where have I seen this before. Yes in Trump world.
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