Mohd Yunus invites China and says we are your gateway to enter India's 7 sister states that are landlocked.

[Muloghonto]

1 hour ago, mishra said:

Dont fall for it. For me, key indicators is TESLA, Iphone switching manufacturing to another country, Till then, they are very well placed in terms of Tech and Finances. Last year their trade surplus was 1 trillion USD.

 

Their consumption is what is going down steeply due to declining population

 

Don't listen to China from the Western sources. They are consistently wrong for 25 years and counting and failed at every single chin prediction. Indians aren't any better. Dunno who to read on cheen but what we are reading ain't it. 

 

West is too stupid and too high and mighty to realise it's batting at 0 correct China pred for last 25 years but we shouldn't be. 

[R!TTER]

19 hours ago, Lone Wolf said:

I didn't meant the city but entire tract including Cox Bazar..  Immense value 

Impossible for the same reason why Pak couldn't fully govern/control West Pak with a massive India between their land masses. Although the situation is almost opposite, that small tract would have required way more manpower/resources than what it's probably worth.

[Lone Wolf]

16 minutes ago, R!TTER said:

Impossible for the same reason why Pak couldn't fully govern/control West Pak with a massive India between their land masses. Although the situation is almost opposite, that small tract would have required way more manpower/resources than what it's probably worth.

Diplomatic fallout is the only thing preventing us.  Other than that it would roughly take 1 week  to completely subjugate Entire Chittagong.

Kanglus without much naval capability would not be able to launch counter attacks.

Feni River looks like a Natural boundary separating Chittagong Tract with rest of Kangludesh.

Indian military planners have long been eyeing Chittagong as a contingency plan in case China invades North East somewhere in future.

Edited April 1, 2025 by Lone Wolf

[rangeelaraja]

5 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

I don't know what prevented us or what prevents us. 

I am observing that we don't have said levers in Bangladesh to apply callibrated pressure. 

Reality is, India isnt a very very new player in the art of realpolitik and its barely 25 years old at that, as Indian realpolitik started the day India became an aatmi taakat.

It is true, we let Maldives and Sri Lanka and all jump too much, but that is also because India hasnt had a consistent and long term foreign policy and Indian foreign policy is a consequence of who rules the country as to its domestic audience. Whereas if you notice, big players like usa, france, etc., foreign policy remains more or less constant regardless of who comes to power.

There is also another reputation Indian diplomats have across the world that you also see the likes of Macron exploit: apparently Indian diplomats are easily placated with pomp and easily get their noses outta joint if not given proper decorum,we actually have one of the more 'dikhaawaa' reputation in diplomat circles- Jaishankar is such a shock to the system largely due to this, because he is polar opposite of dikhawaa and he comes with a total U turn from the image and behaviour of half of his diplo corps.

 

What India needs, is presence of India-centric think-tanks in the media, the same we see in western media, who will provide a continuity architecture for foreign policy realpolitik.

Indian realpolitik is still very raw and naive from what i observe, despite huge gains being made in this aspect during the Ukraine war. India has at least matured enough ( in the eyes of the world) to do what is best for India rather than playing the BS game of 'doing what is right and getting claps in world phorum'. Now the game begins in terms of *knowing* what is best for you and doing that, as the great powers do.

To me, this is the real acid test of India being at the high table, regardless of whether it gets an UNSC seat or not.

 

 

 

Yeah, I think it is not so complicated - and the answer is a firm carrot and stick approach with smaller countries in the neighborhood.

 

India is the best and most liberal country in the world for all sects of Mussalmans- yet ME countries and Turkey bark alot against us when incidences like Nupur Sharma happen.

 

China is the worst country in the world for Musssalmans  --- the kind of genocide they have inflicted upon Uighurs is unreal. 

 

Yet  - do you see a single Mussalman country speak even one word against China ? How can it be so perfect that no M country speaks up against it ? 

 

The answer is a very clear cut and firm carrot and stick policy......You open your mouth against our internal matters in ABC....and XYZ will happen - thats what they tell smaller nations who rely on business with China.

 

Logically - only India can be the first responder,  urgent supplier and closest economic partner to alot of these tiny countries - yet they keep acting against our interest for 2 reasons.

 

1) We don't apply a carrot and stick approach

2) They try to play the China card with us --- if you don't partner with us, we will invite China

 

How the bloody hell does an insignificant country Sri Lanka have the balls to arrest TN fishermen time and again ?

 

We have a lot of leverage - with all due respect our hard diplomacy sucks ( I know it sounds like an oxymoron ) ....but what I am referring to is diplomatic coercion with really really rough edges to tiny neighbors, who take our gentleness as a weakness.

 

 

Edited April 1, 2025 by rangeelaraja

[rangeelaraja]

3 hours ago, mishra said:

Dont fall for it. For me, key indicators is TESLA, Iphone switching manufacturing to another country, Till then, they are very well placed in terms of Tech and Finances. Last year their trade surplus was 1 trillion USD.

 

Their consumption is what is going down steeply due to declining population

 

2 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

 

Don't listen to China from the Western sources. They are consistently wrong for 25 years and counting and failed at every single chin prediction. Indians aren't any better. Dunno who to read on cheen but what we are reading ain't it. 

 

West is too stupid and too high and mighty to realise it's batting at 0 correct China pred for last 25 years but we shouldn't be. 

 

@mishra  @Muloghonto  

 

The Western media may be biased against China, but even the Chinese don't trust their system.

 

You know what is the biggest proof of that ?  --- The Chinese stock market.

 

Read below :

 

There is a thumb rule --- When the capital markets are well developed .. Overall Stock marketcap / GDP  ratio mean in typically 1...

This is not my theory - this ratio is called the Buffet indicator and is based on 100+ year of stock market data.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_stock_exchanges

 

Nasdaq or NYSE market cap /US GDP = 28T/28T  ~ 1

For India  NSE/BSE market cap / India GDP = 4.5-5T / 4.2 trillion  ~ 1

 

If the ratio is much higher than 1  - it reflects either a stock market bubble or that most retailers are investing in the stock market or blue chip companies are doing really well. 

 

Now....Shanghai Stock exchange market cap is a tiny 6.4T relative to Chinese GDP which is at 18T.....
 

What this shows is that even Chinese don't trust the financial reporting of their companies ...which is why they don't invest in their stocks.

 

This is precisely the reason why China has had a massive real estate bubble ...because people invest savings in real estate not the stock market.

 

And the whole real estate bubble in China has been based on cheap credit - they are extremely leveraged.

 

Nobody will know the true extent of how messed up their economy is until they cannot do any more window dressing. 

 

They are past masters in window dressing. 

 

Evergrande going belly-up is only the tip of the iceberg.

[Lone Wolf]

Damboora Dam in Tripura could cut off entire Chittagong to rest of Kangludesh 

 

[mishra]

On 4/1/2025 at 4:48 PM, rangeelaraja said:

 

 

@mishra  @Muloghonto  

 

The Western media may be biased against China, but even the Chinese don't trust their system.

 

You know what is the biggest proof of that ?  --- The Chinese stock market.

 

Read below :

 

There is a thumb rule --- When the capital markets are well developed .. Overall Stock marketcap / GDP  ratio mean in typically 1...

This is not my theory - this ratio is called the Buffet indicator and is based on 100+ year of stock market data.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_stock_exchanges

 

Nasdaq or NYSE market cap /US GDP = 28T/28T  ~ 1

For India  NSE/BSE market cap / India GDP = 4.5-5T / 4.2 trillion  ~ 1

 

If the ratio is much higher than 1  - it reflects either a stock market bubble or that most retailers are investing in the stock market or blue chip companies are doing really well. 

 

Now....Shanghai Stock exchange market cap is a tiny 6.4T relative to Chinese GDP which is at 18T.....
 

What this shows is that even Chinese don't trust the financial reporting of their companies ...which is why they don't invest in their stocks.

 

This is precisely the reason why China has had a massive real estate bubble ...because people invest savings in real estate not the stock market.

 

And the whole real estate bubble in China has been based on cheap credit - they are extremely leveraged.

 

Nobody will know the true extent of how messed up their economy is until they cannot do any more window dressing. 

 

They are past masters in window dressing. 

 

Evergrande going belly-up is only the tip of the iceberg.

I see China in different way than books assuming their businesses are heavily under valued. 
 

Only economy that succeeds is one which earns more forex than spends on itself.

Other fundamentals to look at is environment like Unis Students, Industrialisation, Army, population growth and similar. China beats rest of world in all those.

[rangeelaraja]

38 minutes ago, mishra said:

I see China in different way than books assuming their businesses are heavily under valued. 
 

Only economy that succeeds is one which earns more forex than spends on itself.

Other fundamentals to look at is environment like Unis Students, Industrialisation, Army, population growth and similar. China beats rest of world in all those.

 

@mishra

 

Don't agree there - you are insinuating that only trade surplus economies are successful. That is not the entire truth.

 

US has been running a massive trade deficit for over 3 decades and in-fact (spending alot more domestically ) - yet it has been way more successful as an economy than lets say Germany - which also runs massive trade surplus. US growth has entirely been due to leadership in cutting edge tech, massive domestic consumption fueling growth in all businesses - and ofcourse -reserve currency status.

 

What China has done over the last 40 years  is near miraculous -- the floodgates of growth were opened for them once they gained entry into WTO - before that there was not much difference in the size of the Indian economy and China.

 

Where China beats the rest of the world - is that they have engaged in industrial scale IP theft of Western technology to cut short the time to innovate,  reverse engineered it and invested heavily into R&D after that --- that is how they have caught up at such a frightening pace.

 

But I am not as bullish about their future as you are -- Japan was once upon a time - doing even better - they were 70 % of the US economy in GDP size  with just 1/3 of the population - and leading the world in consumer and industrial hi-tech by a long shot - and then they got hit very by their demographic issues ( and a range of other things )

The Japanese economy has not grown since 1995 - thats almost 30 years of no growth. Infact they have shrunk.

 

Japan was a $5.5T economy in 1995, they are less than that in 2025 !!!

 

China too faces a massive demographic crisis, with a fast rising aging population and still in the  middle income group - their peak growth is over.  

Classic middle income trap - growing old before growing rich.

 

 

 

Edited April 2, 2025 by rangeelaraja

[mishra]

^ China will go Japan way if they didn’t replace dollar with their currency or they don’t have heft in UN (P5) or other global bodies. Japan was/is under US Security umbrella while China has potent military to protect/spread its interests. So all in all Japan can’t have a interest which can be directly in conflict with US. But China can.

 

Finally, I still think US can pull back but it needs a nationalist gvmnt for 10-15 years.

Edited April 2, 2025 by mishra

[rangeelaraja]

10 minutes ago, mishra said:

^ China will go Japan way if they didn’t replace dollar with their currency or they don’t have heft in UN (P5) or other global bodies. Japan was/is under US Security umbrella while China has potent military to protect/spread its interests. So all in all Japan can’t have a interest which can be directly in conflict with US. But China can.

 

Finally, I still think US can pull back but it needs a nationalist gvmnt for 10-15 years.

 

Former USSR had a force that could conquer anything and largest N reserves, yet they dismembered into 12+ pieces with a collapsing economy.

 

China has no powerful allies - and is deeply reliant on trade to survive.  If it comes to picking one of US and China - 99/100 countries will pick US.

 

China can be pushed into an insurmountable economic crisis - if trade with them is sanctioned by a powerful coalition.

 

They have enviable infrastructure and have made massive strides in tech - but they have massive unequality and unrest.

 

This is from their former #2 : 

 

https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/china-has-over-600-million-poor-with-140-monthly-income-premier-li-keqiang-6024341.htm

 

This is over 4 years ago but still relevant ....nearly 42 % of the population has a median income of $ 140 / month. ...even if that number is $250 now...thats barely INR 21,000 a month.  

 

 

[jf1gp_1]

Indian schools still teach achievements of Yunus. Never knew this bastard had so much hate for India. BD another pakistan in making who themselves are another syria in making. What will all these idiotic leaders do if India China one day shake hand ?

[Teengunalagaan]

#WATCH | Dhaka, Bangladesh | President of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, Faruque Hassan, says, "This is a challenging year for garment manufacturers in Bangladesh because President Trump recently imposed tariffs which made the whole economy… pic.twitter.com/KIDyLAsRbQ

— ANI (@ANI) April 11, 2025

Their GDP growth forecasted has already been donwgrated from 6%+ to 3.9%, there is more pain to come. India has plenty of levers to pull on BD

[G_B_]

I have read that the current head of the BD army leans towards India. Yunus does not like that

 

Hope Trump tariffs on BD hold.

 

People were saying that tariffs will drag back India. That is true. But they might just kill the competitors.

[G_B_]

Also india needs to get a good deal from eu uk and usa in form of an fta. Current bd and pak enjoys perks which makes their textile exports competitive

 

[coffee_rules]

Thank you Yunus for making Trump pause tariffs for 90 days. All because of your special request to POTUS.