Strength to Strength comparison of India vs South Africa

[rkt.india]

I remember wanderers ODI last time. Green pitch. India bowling first. BK, Mohit and Ishant playing and SA amassed 360 on a green top. In response, Steyn bowled unplayable leg breaks at 140 kph.

[jalebi_bhai]

3 hours ago, rkt.india said:

most of our test specialists in the list above are not even playing ODIs. Only BK and Rahane are the test players that playing ODIs.

Dhawan, Pandya, Rohit and Kuldeep will also be playing. That's 6 of our Test squad members including BK and Rahane. Bumrah might also be part of the squad. Potentially 7 guys playing in a pointless series.

[Vk1]

42 minutes ago, sandeep said:

AB's presence means a selection headache for SA.  And a bad one, because the obvious candidate to be excluded is Bavuma, who is black.   So if he's benched, expect internal chaos and strife from the SA board.  If he isn't, there will a lot of pressure on him to justify his selection.   And for all of AB's achievements against the white ball, its not as if he's a bonafide test stud.   If he walks in to the crease with 75/3, he's going to feel the heat just as much as any other guy.   He may be a great "360" hitter of the white ball, but in test cricket, he aint no Tendulkar.   Heck he isn't even a Kallis.  

Agree with the selection conundrum.. but on flat pitches and against average bowlers AB can become psychologically overwhelming. All our bowlers can become average on flat pitches. That's my fear.

[sandeep]

36 minutes ago, Vk1 said:

Agree with the selection conundrum.. but on flat pitches and against average bowlers AB can become psychologically overwhelming. All our bowlers can become average on flat pitches. That's my fear.

Yes, agreed that flat pitches are a very effective kryptonite against our bowlers.  But, by the same token, our batting should be able to do well enough to draw the game then on a flat track.   South Africa can't afford to roll out flat tracks for all 3 games, they will want to win as well.   This is why the 1st test becomes even more critical in a 3 test series.  If we are able to draw that one, I think we'll be in the driver's seat for the next 2.  

[Gollum]

@sandeep Even I am more worried about our 1st test, We are notoriously slow starters and you can't come back to win against these teams after being 0-1 down overseas, at max you can get a drawn series. Shouldn't we bolster our batting and play just 4 bowlers for test 1, because a draw will do just fine. Let's face it after the stupid brainless build up to the series the odds are heavily stacked against us before the 1st test, 1 warm up tour match..WTF is this scheduling?

[Laaloo]

2 minutes ago, Gollum said:

@sandeep Even I am more worried about our 1st test, We are notoriously slow starters and you can't come back to win against these teams after being 0-1 down overseas, at max you can get a drawn series. Shouldn't we bolster our batting and play just 4 bowlers for test 1, because a draw will do just fine. Let's face it after the stupid brainless build up to the series the odds are heavily stacked against us before the 1st test, 1 warm up tour match..WTF is this scheduling?

At least we have a warm up this time, we didnt have one on that 2010 Tour.

[sandeep]

27 minutes ago, Gollum said:

@sandeep Even I am more worried about our 1st test, We are notoriously slow starters and you can't come back to win against these teams after being 0-1 down overseas, at max you can get a drawn series. Shouldn't we bolster our batting and play just 4 bowlers for test 1, because a draw will do just fine. Let's face it after the stupid brainless build up to the series the odds are heavily stacked against us before the 1st test, 1 warm up tour match..WTF is this scheduling?

Yeah, I see your point about 6 batsmen - even if that 6th batsman is brohit.  A lot depends on the type of track and the weather though.  

But the problem is, when you play for a draw, you often end up losing.   Its a tricky one for sure.  It would be an easier call to play 6 batsmen, if you could get 10+ overs in an innings from the 6 batsmen.  This is really a huge issue for us.  Even England are able to squeeze out a handful of overs from Root.

 

You don't want to grind your bowlers by over-working them in the 1st test either.  Especially our pacers.  This is one major reason in favor of picking Jadeja over Ashwin in a 6+4 scenario.  The guy can bowl 40+ overs per innings for you, with good control and econ rate, and that too quickly, which really reduces the workload on the rest of the bowling attack.  

 

Edit:  I remember Kumble had Pujara start practicing his legspin, I hope Che has continued to do so, under Shastribot.   Even a handful of overs at 3 RPO or so, would go a long way.  

Edited November 30, 2017 by sandeep

[maniac]

People saying South Africa will be hurt by injuries and an aging bowling line up must remember that-there is enough cricketing talent pool in South Africa to come in and start performing atleast at home ....I mean this is not like the Autorickshaw pamphlet theory I have for Srilankan selection process because of their resource pool.

 

One must remember that at home even someone like Karun Nair and Jayant Yadav can come in a deliver a death blow to the opponents of any stature or rookies like Renshaw,Handscomb,Paris etc can look like experienced cricketers and make winning contributions in their debut games....Hell even Bangladesh has started winning at home.

 

In the past Likes of Kyle Abbott etc came from nowhere to run through sides.

 

I think we should talk about our strengths and weaknesses than coming up with theories of how they are vulnerable

 

[sandeep]

2 minutes ago, maniac said:

People saying South Africa will be hurt by injuries and an aging bowling line up must remember that-there is enough cricketing talent pool in South Africa to come in and start performing atleast at home ....I mean this is not like the Autorickshaw pamphlet theory I have for Srilankan selection process because of their resource pool.

 

One must remember that at home even someone like Karun Nair and Jayant Yadav can come in a deliver a death blow to the opponents of any stature or rookies like Renshaw,Handscomb,Paris etc can look like experienced cricketers and make winning contributions in their debut games....Hell even Bangladesh has started winning at home.

 

In the past Likes of Kyle Abbott etc came from nowhere to run through sides.

 

I think we should talk about our strengths and weaknesses than coming up with theories of how they are vulnerable

 

There will always be reasons to be all Phattu  in classic Sanju-Manju style.   And there will be reasons to be optimistic, and even foolhardy with unrealistic expectations.  Key is to be objective and cold-eyed with respect to the facts -  you can't simply overlook the injury issues in the Saffer bowling unit.  They are there.   

 

Steyn is a bonafide ATG, no question on it.  But even an ATG bowler needs to get some game time under his legs, before he starts delivering at peak performance. 

 

And Morkel is a lynchpin for that bowling attack, maintaining pressure with his bounce and control, and takes wickets too.  But he had to miss cricket with a side strain.  Given his lanky build, it is very easy for a side strain to re-occur, especially if he has to extend his workload.   Especially if South Africans roll out a flat bouncy track instead of a green-top.   

 

And in Kallis' absence, South Africans also have a team balance problem with playing 5 bowlers - their best bet for an allrounder is Morris, who again, was last seen missing out on test cricket due to injury.   

 

Nobody's claiming that its going to be easy to beat South Africa in their own conditions - they are a quality unit.  Its going to be a formidable challenge.  But we should look at our team, and what it brings to the field, without the historical baggage making us unnecessarily pessimistic.   We have a meaningful chance to win this.   IF we play well.  Its certainly within the capabilities of the players we have. 

 

   

[sandeep]

In terms of our strengths - I think we have an extremely settled and solid batting unit - a top 5 of Vijay, Rahul, Pujara, Kohli and Rahane is right up there for the best test top 5 in test cricket.  A fully fit combo of Shami, Bhuvi and Ishant is a quality pace unit - and one that doesn't really have a weak link where the opposition can simply play out a few good overs and then cash in later.   The weakest link in that trio is Ishant, and I maintain that he is a very decent option as 3rd seamer.  He's well-suited for the support role, to use a lame filmi metaphor, its only when you ask Shashi Kapoor to be Amitabh, that you run into problems. 

[maniac]

38 minutes ago, sandeep said:

In terms of our strengths - I think we have an extremely settled and solid batting unit - a top 5 of Vijay, Rahul, Pujara, Kohli and Rahane is right up there for the best test top 5 in test cricket.  A fully fit combo of Shami, Bhuvi and Ishant is a quality pace unit - and one that doesn't really have a weak link where the opposition can simply play out a few good overs and then cash in later.   The weakest link in that trio is Ishant, and I maintain that he is a very decent option as 3rd seamer.  He's well-suited for the support role, to use a lame filmi metaphor, its only when you ask Shashi Kapoor to be Amitabh, that you run into problems. 

Funnily enough what you exactly left out is our biggest weakness....Sure our top 5 is very good but the problem is if we have to produce 5 top quality deliveries to have a chance of running through the opposition but South Africa need only 4...they have Qdk at no.6 who is a top bat in his own right...on the other hand Rohit/Dhawan are a little low on confidence and our lower order is a lot more vulnerable than South Africa in these conditions....so we have a lot more pressure and responsibility on the top 5 than South Africa does.

 

Now for us this means that our bowling has to step up a lot more to run through South Africa.our no4 and no5 bowler which is going to be a combo of Ash/Jaddu/Pandya or a parttimer doesn’t look that great.

 

Also I don’t think South Africa drop a lot of catches if any...our slip catching is another huge issue.

 

This is not about being a Phattu pessimist or a pseudo patriot optimist....it is called fair analysis by being a realist.

Edited November 30, 2017 by maniac

[sandeep]

11 minutes ago, maniac said:

Funnily enough what you exactly left out is our biggest weakness....Sure our top 5 is very good but the problem is if we have to produce 5 top quality deliveries to have a chance of running through the opposition but South Africa need only 4...they have Qdk at no.6 who is a top bat in his own right...on the other hand Rohit/Dhawan are a little low on confidence and our lower order is a lot more vulnerable than South Africa in these conditions....so we have a lot more pressure and responsibility on the top 5 than South Africa does.

 

Now for us this means that our bowling has to step up a lot more to run through South Africa.our no4 and no5 bowler which is going to be a combo of Ash/Jaddu/Pandya or a parttimer doesn’t look that great.

 

Also I don’t think South Africa drop a lot of catches if any...our slip catching is another huge issue.

 

This is not about being a Phattu pessimist or a pseudo patriot optimist....it is called fair analysis by being a realist.

I don't see South Africa having an edge in their lower order - apart from QdK.   Compare the rest of their lower order after him, and its at worst, a wash.   Sure they have a very capable batsman as their wicket-keeper.  Let's give them the edge at #6.  But #7 on down, I like our lineup with Saha, Bhuvi filling out those spots competently.  

 

But an edge in one batting position, doesn't worry me as much as it does you.  Simply because you are forecasting a negative outcome across the board for both our top and lower orders.   

 

On the slip catching - sure, we can say that's an edge for South Africa.  But we can similarly say that a Jadeja/Ashwin is a better 4th bowler than Maharaj.  Haven't seen much of him, and he has creditable numbers so far, but India play spin better than most.  Jadeja can be counted on to hold one end up for a big chunk of overs, going at 2.5 RPO or so - I don't think Maharaj can achieve that.   And this is a non-trivial factor in a war of attrition on flat tracks.   South Africa have a problem of depth in their bowling attack as well, they don't have an allrounder outside of Morris.   Who was last seen unfit.  

 

None of us can see into the future - all the possibilities are on the table for this series - Can we can get beat 2-0 in this series? Sure.  A lot of the things can go wrong that you pointed out.  But its not a guarantee, or even a high probability that they will.  And with a bit of luck, we can as easily fight to a 1-1 or a 2-1 series win.   

 

At the end of the day, all the analysis ends with a gut feeling on what you expect to happen - and as I said earlier, my gut says we're going to do well in this series.   

[maniac]

53 minutes ago, sandeep said:

I don't see South Africa having an edge in their lower order - apart from QdK.   Compare the rest of their lower order after him, and its at worst, a wash.   Sure they have a very capable batsman as their wicket-keeper.  Let's give them the edge at #6.  But #7 on down, I like our lineup with Saha, Bhuvi filling out those spots competently.  

 

But an edge in one batting position, doesn't worry me as much as it does you.  Simply because you are forecasting a negative outcome across the board for both our top and lower orders.   

 

On the slip catching - sure, we can say that's an edge for South Africa.  But we can similarly say that a Jadeja/Ashwin is a better 4th bowler than Maharaj.  Haven't seen much of him, and he has creditable numbers so far, but India play spin better than most.  Jadeja can be counted on to hold one end up for a big chunk of overs, going at 2.5 RPO or so - I don't think Maharaj can achieve that.   And this is a non-trivial factor in a war of attrition on flat tracks.   South Africa have a problem of depth in their bowling attack as well, they don't have an allrounder outside of Morris.   Who was last seen unfit.  

 

None of us can see into the future - all the possibilities are on the table for this series - Can we can get beat 2-0 in this series? Sure.  A lot of the things can go wrong that you pointed out.  But its not a guarantee, or even a high probability that they will.  And with a bit of luck, we can as easily fight to a 1-1 or a 2-1 series win.   

 

At the end of the day, all the analysis ends with a gut feeling on what you expect to happen - and as I said earlier, my gut says we're going to do well in this series.   

 Bharat Sipaahi Sandeep

 

 

 

Edited November 30, 2017 by maniac

[sandeep]

4 minutes ago, maniac said:

 Bharat Sipaahi Sandeep

 

Froggy, do you have any rebuttals to the points I made, or just silly videos to post?  I'm trying not to be harsh with you, but you're making it difficult.

[maniac]

18 minutes ago, sandeep said:

Froggy, do you have any rebuttals to the points I made, or just silly videos to post?  I'm trying not to be harsh with you, but you're making it difficult.

What rebuttal You want me to give when you are basing your opinion on gut feel, instinct,planetary positions etc.

 

Of course I want India to win 3-0 if that’s possible.

 

There are lot of flaws in our team.slip catching is an edge for South Africa lol??? Slip catching has cost us games where on the other hand South Africans even cash in on half chances...it is a bigger factor than you think.

 

When I mention Qdk it is not comparing him with our no.6 be it Rohit/Dhawan/Pandya but the fact that no.4 and no.5 for India have to relatively be more cautious and a lot more pressure on their shoulders than a South African no.4 and no.5

 

Also penetrating(take your mind of the gutter  )

the Indian line up is easier than the South African line up because of that one extra batsman especially someone who is in red hot form. 

 

I have already said this is one of the best bowling attacks to tour SA...read my OP but it is not at a level where it will run through this SA line up in 6 innings. Our best bet is to have those 2 magical innings with the ball like Sreeshanth had in 2007 and 2011 in the same series to have a shot. Our spinners are more than capable of that at home but abroad our fast bowlers still have not shown the consistency. 

 

I think we are  good enough to win 1 test...I am thinking 2-0 SA or 2-1SA or  1-1 tie or 1-0 SA in that order and this is not based on gut or instincts but based on how apart from Kohli how inconsistent both our batting and bowling is...I think these players are mercurial enough to pull of a win or even save 2 tests but I don’t think they can do it twice in 3 games in such a tough series based on what I have seen. We forget that our batting has collapsed and let opposition a sniff even at home before our spinners just decimated teams.

Edited November 30, 2017 by maniac

[Vilander]

Aging batting and Bowling lineup. 

 

I see India winning in SA. De kock is not a much better keeper than Saha, batting yet but in Keep i think Saha is ahead. 

 

Fast bowling, I think SA has their problems, only Rabada is a sure starter. 

 

In batting Kohli,vijay,Rahane will do well. Faf,Amla will do well for them. 

[Vilander]

Their batting crossed 400 once against SL in 3 matches. SL battting sucked so lost all games. But they were troubled by Pradeep and Kumara the fast medium Sl bowlers also lakmal. I think they will have a torrid time against Indian pace attack. 

Edited November 30, 2017 by Vilander

[Vilander]

ok they cross 400 again in last test but were all out. So yeah only one innings amoung 5 they were able to declare against SL. 

[cowboysfan]

people are overrating the SA batting,england have proved that they are not good in good bowling conditions.what i think the saffers will do is not for green wickets because that would tilt the game in favor of us and negate Bhuvi completely.

[sandeep]

2 hours ago, Vilander said:

Their batting crossed 400 once against SL in 3 matches. SL battting sucked so lost all games. But they were troubled by Pradeep and Kumara the fast medium Sl bowlers also lakmal. I think they will have a torrid time against Indian pace attack. 

I hadn't looked at the scorecards, but that just shows you that there is no reason to assume that the SA batting is going to put up big scores on us.