randomGuy Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 (edited) What each one of us should immediately do is 1. Go to worldometer 2. Open one window for each continent - Europe, North America, Africa, Asia, South America 3. For each continent, click on deaths per million population. So that the list gets sorted according to deaths per million population. What we can see is that in warmer countries, people are not dying (deaths rate negligible compared to epicentres which are all cold), either people are not catching the virus or aren't getting sick enough from it to die. But we can only see the end result - negligible deaths per million population. All things constant, hot places could end up being spared. Take Pakistan 1. doesn't have a lockdown or has a loose one 2. Population density - maximum possible. 3. medical facilities compared to NY - bad Yet it is spared , thanks to the climate? Comparison 159 deaths in 230 million Pakistanis; meaning 0.7 deaths in 1 million Pakistani In cold epicentres - 400-500 deaths in 1 million people Edited April 19, 2020 by randomGuy
rkt.india Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 It's common sense that pneuenomia is more dangerous in colder temperatures. randomGuy and beetle 1 1
adi B Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 Yes hot weather is somewhat saving these countries but are seriously believing in the figures quoted by China or Pakistan ? This is a country which still believes that they won the 1971 war ,do you really believe they have enough test kits (with proper accuracy) or have conducted enough test or are the doctors even mentioning death due to corona in the PM report ? I have zero trust in these numbers from Pakistan beetle, Suhaan and kubrickian 1 2
Mariyam Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 @OP Don't you think your analysis is an over simplification? A nation may not be uniformly warm/cold. More so in the case of larger nations. Look at India. Maximum cases are from Maharashtra, particularly Mumbai. The last two days have seen a spurt in the number of cases. Mumbai is not the warmest place in India at this time of the year. Not by far. Yet (relative to India) cases are extremely high.
randomGuy Posted April 19, 2020 Author Posted April 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Mariyam said: @OP Don't you think your analysis is an over simplification? A nation may not be uniformly warm/cold. More so in the case of larger nations. Look at India. Maximum cases are from Maharashtra, particularly Mumbai. The last two days have seen a spurt in the number of cases. Mumbai is not the warmest place in India at this time of the year. Not by far. Yet (relative to India) cases are extremely high. India - no where is the fatalities per million population High...even mumbai - extremely low deaths per million people. In USA, Texas (warm) has 14 deaths per million, newyork (cold) has 800 deaths per million, California (warm) has 27 deaths per million
Mariyam Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 (edited) 9 hours ago, randomGuy said: India - no where is the fatalities per million population High...even mumbai - extremely low deaths per million people. In USA, Texas (warm) has 14 deaths per million, newyork (cold) has 800 deaths per million, California (warm) has 27 deaths per million I am comparing within India! Warm Mumbai has a significantly higher infection rate than a much hotter Jaipur/Delhi and a much cooler Bangalore. Also, measuring the spread of corona should be on the basis of number of people infected, not the number of deaths. Deaths are a function of existing co-morbidities and the health care set up. What you are trying to track is spread of disease in the population, to test your hypothesis. Why does the mortality rate matter then? Edited April 19, 2020 by Mariyam Stradlater 1
randomGuy Posted April 19, 2020 Author Posted April 19, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, Mariyam said: I am comparing within India! Warm Mumbai has a significantly higher infection rate than a much hotter Jaipur/Delhi and a much cooler Bangalore. Also, measuring the spread of corona should be on the basis of number of people infected, not the number of deaths. Deaths are a function of existing co-morbidities and the health care set up. What you are trying to track is spread of disease in the population, to test your hypothesis. Why does the mortality rate matter then? When people are doing antibody testing, they find that 20x-50x -80x of the reported cases already have antibodies suggesting that they caught the virus, developed antibody without ever knowing that they caught the virus. For ex. Now Santa clara county in California is supposed to have 80 times people with antibodies compared to reported cases (just google). If this is the case, covid19 could be less deadly than previously thought. We don't know about Mumbai. Hence tracking deaths per million population. Edited April 19, 2020 by Mariyam
Autonomous Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 27 minutes ago, randomGuy said: When people are doing antibody testing, they find that 20x-50x -80x of the reported cases already have antibodies suggesting that they caught the virus, developed antibody without ever knowing that they caught the virus. For ex. Now Santa clara county in California is supposed to have 80 times people with antibodies compared to reported cases (just google). If this is the case, covid19 could be less deadly than previously thought. We don't know about Mumbai. Hence tracking deaths per million population. Your theory has logic. Plus as someone said, pnemunia is dangerous in winters or cold which is why many people with poor lungs suffer in cold weather. But, another thing is that for a country like Pakistan, there is diverse geography. For example Gilgit Baltistan, KPK (Areas like Dir, Swat, Hazara, Kohistan etc), Northern Punjab and Parts of Balochistan have cool-mild weather even in summers. As of now, we do not have enough data.
Autonomous Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 It is being said that you can be re-infected once recovered.
coffee_rules Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, Autonomous said: It is being said that you can be re-infected once recovered. WHO has refuted this claim that there will be relapse of virus once recovered. But, then who can believe WHO these days randomGuy 1
Autonomous Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 20 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: WHO has refuted this claim that there will be relapse of virus once recovered. But, then who can believe WHO these days When?
Singh bling Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 The entire african continent has 1000 deaths despite 2 months of Corona. Clearly warm weather protected the most backward continent. randomGuy 1
Stradlater Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: WHO has refuted this claim that there will be relapse of virus once recovered. But, then who can believe WHO these days Press Trust of India tweeted today that a person in Himachal got reinfected after recovering from the virus.
beetle Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, Stradlater said: Press Trust of India tweeted today that a person in Himachal got reinfected after recovering from the virus. Can't trust the press....or even the tests. It could a defective test.
Autonomous Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 19 minutes ago, Singh bling said: The entire african continent has 1000 deaths despite 2 months of Corona. Clearly warm weather protected the most backward continent. Or the lack of travel to those countries and thus lower number of infections?
coffee_rules Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Autonomous said: When? I misunderstood. They said there is no clear evidence one way or the other it is not a re-infection , data now shows they don’t have anti-bodies to fight virus. Trump Health secy Dr. Fauci thinks there is no data to prove it is the same virus or a different strand Edited April 19, 2020 by coffee_rules
kosingh Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: I misunderstood. They said there is no clear evidence one way or the other it is not a re-infection , data now shows they don’t have anti-bodies to fight virus And then there are people - up to 10% of population - according to some estimates, who have antibodies. There is something *ing weird about this virus. randomGuy 1
Autonomous Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 1 hour ago, coffee_rules said: I misunderstood. They said there is no clear evidence one way or the other it is not a re-infection , data now shows they don’t have anti-bodies to fight virus. Trump Health secy Dr. Fauci thinks there is no data to prove it is the same virus or a different strand So if there are different strains, how will they develop a vaccine and how effective will it be? This virus is
Autonomous Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 1 hour ago, kosingh said: And then there are people - up to 10% of population - according to some estimates, who have antibodies. There is something *ing weird about this virus. I hope we are able to atleast find a suitable treatment which can atleast keep deaths very low.
kosingh Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 I thought this was interesting regarding transmission
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