Clarke Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 There’s a 98% chance of a global recession, research firm warns Quote Warning lights are flashing in the global economy as high inflation, drastic rate hikes and the war in Ukraine take their toll. There is currently a 98.1% chance of a global recession, according to a probability model run by Ned Davis Research. The only other times that recession model was this high has been during severe economic downturns, most recently in 2020 and during the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. “This indicates that the risk of a severe global recession is rising for some time in 2023,” economists at Ned Davis Research wrote in a report last Friday. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/economy/recession-global-economy velu 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarke Posted October 4, 2022 Author Share Posted October 4, 2022 Quote The oil cartel and its allies are considering an output cut of more than a million barrels per day, according to OPEC+ sources who spoke to Reuters. “The OPEC ministers are not going to come to Austria for the first time in two years to do nothing. So there’s going to be a cut of some historic kind,” Dan Pickering, CIO of Pickering Energy Partners, said, referring to the group’s first in-person meeting since 2020. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/03/opec-oil-prices-could-soon-return-to-100-a-barrel-analysts-say.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarke Posted October 4, 2022 Author Share Posted October 4, 2022 The usual suspects: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-recession-prediction-debt-inflation-crisis-stagflation-2022-10 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-stocks-rates-currencies-markets-financial-crisis-2022-9 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biggest-crash-world-history-robert-160000143.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 I would say 100 %. I say 100 % because it is already here. Came atleast 6 months back. While Biden govt was busy redefining it. Honestly, apart from India and Vietnam to some extent, things look very very bad. A war to no end, shortages, inflation and whatever is happening in China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gattaca Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 3 hours ago, ravishingravi said: I would say 100 %. I say 100 % because it is already here. Came atleast 6 months back. While Biden govt was busy redefining it. Honestly, apart from India and Vietnam to some extent, things look very very bad. A war to no end, shortages, inflation and whatever is happening in China. Job growth is still there and companies are still struggling to find resources. There is lot of labor shortage. It’s kind a different economic struggle but fed is trying to squeeze markets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 I think PM Modi's vision of Atmanirbhar was way ahead of its times. And now they are n right track with de-dollarization. World has to wean off dollar dependency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 question is whether there will be hard landing or soft landing yesterday UN asked FED and other central banks not to aggressively increase the interest rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diga Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Unlike the previous recessions, this one may play out far longer... maybe 2 years or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nevada Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 The 30 year housing loan rate in the US has climbed to 7% now after languishing around 3 for many years. The Fed seems hell bent on crashing the markets with rapid rate increases. Don't know why these fvckers pumped up the same markets for well over a decade with measly interest rates.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, nevada said: The 30 year housing loan rate in the US has climbed to 7% now after languishing around 3 for many years. The Fed seems hell bent on crashing the markets with rapid rate increases. Don't know why these fvckers pumped up the same markets for well over a decade with measly interest rates.. To arrest inflation that rose after Covid and Ukraine. It was stagnant only because to boost real-estate and economy. I believe if interest rates are low, people will stop hoarding in banks and spend or invest more, which is good for economy dial_100 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Fed has no choice but to increase interest rate. That's America for you. Let the world burn but we won't allow Iran and Venezuela to supply oil. World needs a strong China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarke Posted October 6, 2022 Author Share Posted October 6, 2022 This doesn't help, they will try & keep price above $90 which isn't what a lot of countries can absorb. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/05/oil-opec-imposes-deep-production-cuts-in-a-bid-to-shore-up-prices.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mishra Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 If War in Ukraine ends in a months time or two without nuclear button pressed by Putin then Recession is only coming in China. Rest of world will have inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jusarrived Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 We wer at brink of recession before Covid, which just created an artificial demand thanks to all the money printed and pushed the inevitable by couple of years. I think though india will sail through easily, unless it extends beyond 3-4 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jusarrived Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 On 10/4/2022 at 6:11 PM, diga said: Unlike the previous recessions, this one may play out far longer... maybe 2 years or more. I think 2 years would be welcome, it could be much worse ..5+ years ravishingravi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nevada Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 What's going on with the rupee? Will it ever bounce back to the 75 mark which itself was considered a lowly level not long ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 10 hours ago, nevada said: What's going on with the rupee? Will it ever bounce back to the 75 mark which itself was considered a lowly level not long ago? Compared to other currencies Rupee is doing okay. It will bounce back. Long term learning for all nations is to reduce dollar dependency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swag Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Forget recession, we are heading into a depression. ravishingravi and dial_100 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mishra Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 While rest of West (UK EU Canada and so on) is feeling the pressure of Ukraine war but For the time being USA is biggest gainer as energy and arm export from US has skyrocketed. I think the way developing countries trade is fundamentally changing. Weaponisation of SWIFT System against Russia has forced major economies to find out alternative and put that in place. In long run, this fundamental shift if materialised is going to Hurt US economic interest very badly .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dial_100 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 On 10/5/2022 at 12:30 PM, ravishingravi said: Fed has no choice but to increase interest rate. That's America for you. Let the world burn but we won't allow Iran and Venezuela to supply oil. World needs a strong China. Economics. Thats how it works. To check Inflation they have to raise interest rates. It impacts real estate market for sure but when spending goes down, aggregate demand lowers in the market causing prices to fall. Inflation goes down. coffee_rules 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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