Gujarat and Himachal elections:2017

[FischerTal]

9 minutes ago, surajmal said:

Stopped short of going mc bc, IMO. Called out the casteism project of gungadeens. I think all election campaigns from here on will follow the GJ template. 

congress will go to any extent to divide and rule. he needs to be cured of the ABV statesmanitis and go back to the ruthless leader he was in GJ. Pappu may be dumb but his handlers are cunning and most importantly, their entire livelihood depends on Congress regaining power. 2018 will be bloody. 

 

[FischerTal]

1) action against pakistan

2) create jobs for the youth

3) ensure hindu vote consolidation

 

otherwise, say tata to 2019.

Edited December 18, 2017 by FischerTal

[Gollum]

Impressive from BJP in spite of the final tally. Now please win Karnataka, sick and tired of everyday violence here. 

[coffee_rules]

 

 

[Gollum]

KLPD all around today especially near 10 a.m. 

Edited December 18, 2017 by Gollum

[dial_100]

^ It was 89 - 71 at 1 point in fav of Cong. Then 86-84 and boom. last 11 seat counting opened up and it was 95-84 in fav of BJP. 

 

I felt that Amit Shah trolled with congress and all those usual suspects in media. 

[coffee_rules]

Rajdeep retiring?

Jashn manao...

 

 

[asterix]

BJP is in the govt (centre + 19 states now). So they have at their disposal, countless numbers of tools to swing votes their way. If Namo bitches about anti incumbency in 2019... well, it will say more about his incompetency and we will know that he's isnt the hindu hriday samrat he claims to be AND we should bring someone else to carry the hindutva flag. 

Modi has said that 4 years governance and one year politics... I expect next year to be full of populist offers...

However Modi & Jaitley pushed the luck too far with the double whammy of Demonetisation & GST. Still perusing Aadhar Card compliance etc. Almost as if they don’t care whether getting next term or majority. Just being like men possessed, Doing hard reforms in one term only.

In the process neglecting marginalised sections, farmers etc. This overconfidence of repeating 2014 (that was primarily public anger against Congress), taking public for granted, will ultimately screw BJP.

Modi’s novelty as orator is slowly wearing off.

[cowboysfan]

8 hours ago, chewy said:

So GST and Demonotization boogie had no impact on BJP in Gujarat, one of the state most likely effected

 

huh? surely demonetization was a terrible hindrance for people without bank accounts like a lot of rural folks.

[cowboysfan]

7 hours ago, Gollum said:

Impressive from BJP in spite of the final tally. Now please win Karnataka, sick and tired of everyday violence here. 

what kind of violence? i only peruse national websites and i havent seen anything . BJP and Karnataka will never mix,their Hindutva agenda will  never work in south india.

[chewy]

9 hours ago, cowboysfan said:

huh? surely demonetization was a terrible hindrance for people without bank accounts like a lot of rural folks.

Of course, but a lot was said how GST and demonetisation will be big influence in the urban centres of Gujarat since these centres are industrial centric and a lot of cash handling takes place, but urban centres continue to support BJP, like most urban centres

 

And let’s not forget, the rural votes for Congress in Gujarat was purely based on swing votes due to independent leaders Jignesh Mewani (Dalit) and Alpesh Thakor, and both candidates are not committed to Congress alliance - I bet in six months these two will break alliance with Congress and join BJP

 

[someone]

19 hours ago, surajmal said:

Hardik Patel's Chutiyapa worked. Question is, is the loss of patel vote reversible? If it is, BJP should be fine in Guj next time (since they seem to be gaining tribal vote - and this is a long term trend), else...

Dominant caste + complete minorities + some SC/ST is the golden formula for Congress. BJP will always struggle if caste is a major issue. Gujarat/Bihar are such examples.

[chewy]

9 hours ago, cowboysfan said:

huh? surely demonetization was a terrible hindrance for people without bank accounts like a lot of rural folks.

Saying that, the one urban centre did punish BJP for demonisation, Morbi. This is obvious, Morbi is an epitome of Wild West industrial zone where cash is king and tax avoidance rampant, 

[chewy]

3 minutes ago, someone said:

Dominant caste + complete minorities + some SC/ST is the golden formula for Congress. BJP will always struggle if caste is a major issue. Gujarat/Bihar are such examples.

But just like Bihar, the Congress alliance partners in Guj, Mewani and Thakor are based on flimsy grounds, both OBC leaders have denied to join Congress and before elections stated they will exploit the electorate for their own social movements 

 

the big big congress leaders lost in Guj, 

the golden formula may work but with no Congress Gov at centre it will struggle to last

 

[surajmal]

http://www.opindia.com/2017/12/how-did-gujarati-muslims-vote-with-congress-soft-hindutva-approach-in-gujarat-assembly-elections/

 

So Congress made a backroom deal with the peacefuls while portraying a soft hindutva face to the hindu public. 

 

BJP needs to expose/break this pact. Have more hardcore hindutva rhetoric and see how far right Congress is willing to follow. At some point, even the Ropers will become uneasy and begin to question their supposed understanding with Congis. 

 

Seriously, Hindutva really is the silver bullet to all of BJP's electoral problems. I'm sure Amit Shah knows this and he is just waiting for the right time. 

Edited December 19, 2017 by surajmal

[Gollum]

16 hours ago, cowboysfan said:

what kind of violence? i only peruse national websites and i havent seen anything . BJP and Karnataka will never mix,their Hindutva agenda will  never work in south india.

Coastal Karnataka (esp Uttara Kannada) is on fire the past fortnight or so. Mangaluru, Mysuru, Coorg, Shivamogga all have witnessed communal tensions (mostly one sided with Hindus bearing the brunt) in the past 6 months. SDPI/PFI with the tactic support of Congress behind this menace. Hope GOI bans that terror organization ASAP. 

[velu]

small farmers should move out of farming and get into service or small business ..

more than 50% of the people employed in farming is just  too high 

[jalebi_bhai]

For some reason, I sense some defections taking place in Gujarat in favour of BJP (around 25 odd seats) post Rajasthan elections, which either Congress will win or Raje will barely hold on to. No real analytics to back it up, just a gut feeling. 

[mishra]

^ Enough shocks and surprises in Givernance

Time is now apt to see whats on offer in terms of Modi politics

[coffee_rules]

On 12/18/2017 at 5:21 PM, cowboysfan said:

what kind of violence? i only peruse national websites and i havent seen anything . BJP and Karnataka will never mix,their Hindutva agenda will  never work in south india.

Yes, agree. BJP has no issue to fight against in Karnataka. The violence / law&order issue is only in the coastal belt which votes BJP. They can't raise the issue of corruption as eddy has spoilt it for BJP in that front, Bangalore/Mysore always vote for BJP.  Modi has some influence, but the novelty factor of 2014 is not there any more. BJP has regain the trust they had gained in North Karnataka, like it did in 2008/2009. Raise farmers issue and probably with some sops to offer to them, if voted to power. I think Lingayats will back BJP even with the simmering religion issue. Seems to be tough for BJP, Sidda's image itself is so disheartening for voters, might vote him out, that is the only trick. Rile up Sidda so much and voters might be even repulsed to even look at him.   With the split votes to KJP and another faction (Sriramulu) rejoining BJP, a united BJP will help, but still need to cut into votes of INC. Playing the Hindu card will not in Karnataka.  Image destroying Cong ministers should help them. In that front, BJP has not done much since 2014.