Can Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammad Shami get to 300 test wickets?

[Majestic]

Both are our two best bowlers.

 

Shami has 180 test wickets at average slightly over 27.

 

Bumrah has 79 test wickets at average slightly over 21.

 

What do you think?

[neel roy]

 

my prediction 

 

 

Shami 250 

Bumrah 350

Yadav 200

Ashwin 525

Jadeja : 325

Biggest issue: Injury

[express bowling]

More than the cumulative wicket tally ... what interests me is whether Bumrah can finish a sufficiently long career at a bowling average of 23 or less and a SR of 46 or less.

 

And I want Shami to finish at a bowling average of 25 or less and SR of 49 or less.

 

Talking about test matches above ... but want similar low averages at the end of their ODI careers too.

[express bowling]

Another thing I want from Bumrah and Shami is to finish their sufficiently long careers as fast bowlers ... and not extend their careers when they become trundlers, just to increase the total wicket count.

[ShoonyaSifar]

Shami is more likely

 

Shami's real age looks to be 32-33. At max,  he will play for another 3-4 years, that's about 30-35 tests which will mean 100-120 wickets. Takes him to 300+

 

Bumrah, being a late boomer in tests, can realistically aim for 250. That's 170 wickets to go, for which he will need 40-45 tests, over 5-6 years.

[MechEng]

48 minutes ago, express bowling said:

Another thing I want from Bumrah and Shami is to finish their sufficiently long careers as fast bowlers ... and not extend their careers when they become trundlers, just to increase the total wicket count.

 

Jassi can become a swing bowler and trundle at 132-134 kph like how he did in West Indies before injury. If he swings, he can send stumps flying.

[Majestic]

43 minutes ago, ShoonyaSifar said:

Shami is more likely

 

Shami's real age looks to be 32-33. At max,  he will play for another 3-4 years, that's about 30-35 tests which will mean 100-120 wickets. Takes him to 300+

 

Bumrah, being a late boomer in tests, can realistically aim for 250. That's 170 wickets to go, for which he will need 40-45 tests, over 5-6 years.

But Bumrah is 27 only. 79 wickets at age of 27.

 

100 wickets in next 3 years.

Then 100 wickets in another 3 years.

 

Total - 279 wickets, Age 33. 21 more, he can get to 300 wickets and then retire.

 

Shami is at 180 wickets but I doubt he will play more than 2-3 years now and he will have some injuries too.

[express bowling]

34 minutes ago, MechEng said:

 

Jassi can become a swing bowler and trundle at 132-134 kph like how he did in West Indies before injury. If he swings, he can send stumps flying.

 

 

Bumrah can swing the ball at 140 k to 145 k, provided the conditions aid swing bowling.  Did it in England.

 

In that innings In the WI, he had already developed a stress fracture of the back ... hence he was bowling slower. 

 

The ball hardly swings these days, except in England / NZ.

 

Swing bowlers work only if they are from England or NZ.

 

Asia has never produced a low average ( 25 or less )  medium paced swing bowler with 200 + test wickets. 

Edited January 24, 2021 by express bowling

[Lone Wolf]

I think in this day n age with so many LOIs coming up & WC's..  It'd be a miracle if Bumrah plays enough tests  especially home games to get to 250 test wickets.  I'll be happy if his career avg stays 23-24.

Shami..  Can get to 250 easily I reckon but not beyond that. 

[ShoonyaSifar]

1 minute ago, Majestic said:

But Bumrah is 27 only. 79 wickets at age of 27.

 

100 wickets in next 3 years.

Then 100 wickets in another 3 years.

 

Total - 279 wickets, Age 33. 21 more, he can get to 300 wickets and then retire.

 

Shami is at 180 wickets but I doubt he will play more than 2-3 years now and he will have some injuries too.

220 test wickets in 6-7 years for an Indian pacer, that too in a very balanced attack plus spinners taking bulk of wickets at home, is way too optimistic IMO. 

[rkt.india]

11 minutes ago, ShoonyaSifar said:

220 test wickets in 6-7 years for an Indian pacer, that too in a very balanced attack plus spinners taking bulk of wickets at home, is way too optimistic IMO. 

If he plays 10 tests a year, 4 wickets per test then it's achievable, even 8 tests per year will do.

[Majestic]

19 minutes ago, ShoonyaSifar said:

220 test wickets in 6-7 years for an Indian pacer, that too in a very balanced attack plus spinners taking bulk of wickets at home, is way too optimistic IMO. 

As already mentioned by poster above,

 

8 tests( 10 is too much not happening) and if he had to maintain that average then 4 WPM, so 32 wickets in a year.

 

7 years = 224 wickets. But assuming a few injuries here and there, I think 180 looks more probable, so total 260 test wickets in about 65 tests.

 

 

Edited January 24, 2021 by Majestic

[New guy]

2 hours ago, express bowling said:

More than the cumulative wicket tally ... what interests me is whether Bumrah can finish a sufficiently long career at a bowling average of 23 or less and a SR of 46 or less.

 

And I want Shami to finish at a bowling average of 25 or less and SR of 49 or less.

 

Talking about test matches above ... but want similar low averages at the end of their ODI careers too.

Shami is way too overhyped on this forum (and as usual because of blind speed gun worship)

 

Unlike Bumrah who averages 25 or below in every country he has played except NZ where he was returning from injury and only played 2 (still averages a respectable 31), Shami averages 32 in Aus without any defining spell, 45 in England, 35 in NZ. He has made merry mostly in india (that too against teams like Bangladesh and west indies)  and in west indies 

 

Even Ishant who was medicore for most of his career averages way better than Shami in england and New Zealand (and even west indies). Ishant averages better than him in the 2018 Aus series we won

 

 

They are no way comparable. Bumrah is a future ATG while Shami is average and there are bowlers who could have bowled better in those countries 

 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2021 by New guy

[rkt.india]

15 minutes ago, New guy said:

Shami is way too overhyped on this forum (and as usual because of blind speed gun worship)

 

Unlike Bumrah who averages 25 or below in every country he has played except NZ where he was returning from injury and only played 2 (still averages a respectable 31), Shami averages 32 in Aus without any defining spell, 45 in England, 35 in NZ. He has made merry mostly in india (that too against teams like Bangladesh and west indies)  and in west indies 

 

Even Ishant who was medicore for most of his career averages way better than Shami in england and New Zealand (and even west indies). Ishant averages better than him in the 2018 Aus series we won

 

 

They are no way comparable. Bumrah is a future ATG while Shami is average and there are bowlers who could have bowled better in those countries 

 

 

 

True. Shami's Bowling doesn't suit overseas pitches and his first tours were poor or below average but improved on most of his second tours. 

 

Someone like Zaheer averages 35 at-home, so you can't home performance for granted. Even Ishant hasn't been great at home in last few years.

Edited January 24, 2021 by rkt.india

[Majestic]

13 minutes ago, New guy said:

Shami is way too overhyped on this forum (and as usual because of blind speed gun worship)

 

Unlike Bumrah who averages 25 or below in every country he has played except NZ where he was returning from injury and only played 2 (still averages a respectable 31), Shami averages 32 in Aus without any defining spell, 45 in England, 35 in NZ. He has made merry mostly in india (that too against teams like Bangladesh and west indies)  and in west indies 

 

Even Ishant who was medicore for most of his career averages way better than Shami in england and New Zealand (and even west indies). Ishant averages better than him in the 2018 Aus series we won

 

 

They are no way comparable. Bumrah is a future ATG while Shami is average and there are bowlers who could have bowled better in those countries 

 

 

 

Shami's average of 32 is hurt because of flat 2014-15 Australian patta wickets. He was India's by far best bowler in that series but averaged 35 because of patta wickets. Everyone averaged 30+ including Aussies pacers.

Edited January 24, 2021 by Majestic

[New guy]

16 minutes ago, Majestic said:

Shami's average of 32 is hurt because of flat 2014-15 Australian patta wickets. He was India's by far best bowler in that series but averaged 35 because of patta wickets. Everyone averaged 30+ including Aussies pacers.

What about in other countries like NZ and England where other Indian bowlers have done great? Shami is good for bouncy conditions if Aus and  SA but ordinary in swinging conditions of England and NZ 

[Majestic]

2 minutes ago, New guy said:

What about in other countries like NZ and England where other Indian bowlers have done great? Shami is good for bouncy conditions if Aus and  SA but ordinary in swinging conditions of England and NZ 

Yup. But Boult, Johnson, Hazelwood also rely on conditions.

[New guy]

19 minutes ago, rkt.india said:

True. Shami's Bowling doesn't suit overseas pitches and his first tours were poor or below average but improved on most of his second tours. 

 

Someone like Zaheer averages 35 at-home, so you can't home performance for granted. Even Ishant hasn't been great at home in last few years.

his bowling suits bouncy pitches like SA and Aus but does not suit swinging conditions like NZ and england

 

At home, you have to keep in mind that pitch conditions have changed since zaheers time. Everyone of our regular bowlers aberages 25 or lesser in last 5 years at home, ishant, yadav, shami. Even bhuvi averages 26 in last 5 years 

 

 

[express bowling]

7 hours ago, New guy said:

Shami is way too overhyped on this forum (and as usual because of blind speed gun worship)

 

Unlike Bumrah who averages 25 or below in every country he has played except NZ where he was returning from injury and only played 2 (still averages a respectable 31), Shami averages 32 in Aus without any defining spell, 45 in England, 35 in NZ. He has made merry mostly in india (that too against teams like bangkadesh)  and west indies 

 

Even Ishant who was medicore for most of his career averages way better than Shami in england and New Zealand (and even west indies) 

 

 

They are no way comparable. Bumrah is a future ATG while Shami is average and there are bowlers who could have bowled better in those countries 

 

 

 

 

Shami 1.0 from 2013 to 2015, was an average bowler, albeit with potential.

 

At this stage, he was too fragile and used to break down regularly. Could not sustain speeds either and started huffing and puffing after bowling 10 overs a day.

 

From 2016, Shami 2.0 started working really hard on his fitness. He changed his run up too and shortened his steps, which resulted in him getting more bounce. And he became fit and was sustaining high speeds throughout the day.

 

Here are Shami's bowling averages in test matches serieswise from 2016 onwards

 

WI away.     25.8

NZ home.   30.4

Eng home.  25.2

SL. away.    17.7

SL home     29.9

SA.away.    17.1

Eng away.   38.8

WI home.    16.5

Aus away.   26.2

WI away.     17 8

SA home.   14.8

BD home.    15.6

NZ away.     36.6

 

 

Series against big teams in bold.

 

This shows that Shami 2.0 does well in every place except while playing in England and NZ. And this makes sense because Shami is a skiddy fast bowler who depends on skiddy pace, seam movement, reverse swing and bounce. These abilities work in India, SL, Australia, South Africa, WI and Bangladesh.

 

While success in England needs swing bowlers and in NZ needs swing bowlers or tall bounce bowlers ( unless one is an amazing pacer like Bumrah )

 

When bowling in Asia, Australia or South Africa ... Speed is very important unless someone is as tall and bouncy as McGrath. So, taunts regarding this aspect does not make sense. 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2021 by express bowling

[New guy]

1 minute ago, Majestic said:

Yup. But Boult, Johnson, Hazelwood also rely on conditions.

all of them excel  in england and NZ. We need a swing bowler in those countries instead of Shami,  maybe Siraj. Ishant and bumrah do well there anyways