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Why has Indian exports stopped scaling up under Modi govt?


Trichromatic

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Its not the govt that 'exports'.  Their job is to manage the economic ecosystem.  Systemic incentives don't favor 'exports'.  Its easier for folks to import and resell.   The legal and regulatory environment for setting up a factory, labor laws etc - these are the problem.   

 

And ribbon cutting, holding conferences in gujarat isn't  going to solve these problems.  

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For exports, in my opinion, we need scale. Scale brings efficiency. That is universal.

 

A chaotic, informal, low-trust and disorganized culture like ours can never scale unless there are huge incentives. 

 

For example, we export around $1B of raw cotton to Bangladesh. Can we not manufacture the clothing here and export? Guess what, it is NOT possible. 

 

Let us not blame it on labour laws and others. The reason/rot runs deeper. 

 

Of course, there is an exception. We are top in every other dirty manufacturing activity that first world and china thinks as hazardous. Pharma, Speciality Chemicals..you name it.

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7 hours ago, sandeep said:

Its not the govt that 'exports'.  Their job is to manage the economic ecosystem.  Systemic incentives don't favor 'exports'.  Its easier for folks to import and resell.   The legal and regulatory environment for setting up a factory, labor laws etc - these are the problem.   

 

And ribbon cutting, holding conferences in gujarat isn't  going to solve these problems.  

 

Are these problems new under Modi govt? 

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37 minutes ago, Prakat said:

Anne data's rock.

 

Get free electricity from Govt, dig up borewells, pump the water out, spray tons of chemicals and demand "fair" price from govt.  

 

I happened to see a bunch of Farmers in Telangana who were demanding that their crop should get the water from pond before supplying drinking water to Town folks.

And I have seen farmers who use Water pumps to dry up the ponds to water their crops.

 

The whipping boy is tax payer and it's good that they are leaving in droves to west and east. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, sandeep said:

Its not the govt that 'exports'.  Their job is to manage the economic ecosystem.  Systemic incentives don't favor 'exports'.  Its easier for folks to import and resell.   The legal and regulatory environment for setting up a factory, labor laws etc - these are the problem.   

 

And ribbon cutting, holding conferences in gujarat isn't  going to solve these problems.  

Nope. The rot runs deeper. We are not a culture suitable for large scale planning, discipline and organization.

 

 

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12 hours ago, Trichromatic said:

 

 

This article is devoid of full facts.  It is only factoring exports of goods/merchandise ...not services. India's services exports itself are close to $250B.

 

India is on target to achieve total exports - goods+ services -almost to the tune of $ 650B this fiscal year.

 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-set-to-achieve-650-billion-exports-target-in-2021-22-piyush-goyal/articleshow/88958792.cms?from=mdr

 

 

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15 minutes ago, rangeelaraja said:

 

 

This article is devoid of full facts.  It is only factoring exports of goods/merchandise ...not services. India's services exports itself are close to $250B.

 

India is on target to achieve total exports - goods+ services -almost to the tune of $ 650B this fiscal year.

 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-set-to-achieve-650-billion-exports-target-in-2021-22-piyush-goyal/articleshow/88958792.cms?from=mdr

 

 

 

 

And how do you explain decline in goods and merchandise exports?

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22 hours ago, Trichromatic said:

I don't have much knowledge on the above topic in thread on exports , but as your creating quite few topics on economics  I would like your view on how much and   how the fuel price hikes(after election) and existing  inflation will effect Indian economy?. Not sure if we have economic thread so asking it here

 

I would like hear others opnion on it well

Edited by rising
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39 minutes ago, rising said:

I don't have much knowledge on the above topic in thread on exports , but as your creating quite few topics on economics  I would like your view on how much and   how the fuel price hikes(after election) and existing  inflation will effect Indian economy?. Not sure if we have economic thread so asking it here

 

I would like hear others opnion on it well

 

I have very little understanding of economics, factors and policies. 

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12 hours ago, kepler37b said:

Nope. The rot runs deeper. We are not a culture suitable for large scale planning, discipline and organization.

 

 

That's a bit......exaggerated.  Culture is something that's always evolving, and can be pushed in productive directions.  Singapore is different than Malaysia/Indonesia etc purely due to design, leadership, and execution.  They created a better culture.  India can do it too, especially in sections and pockets.  Look at Bombay, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai today.  

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13 hours ago, Trichromatic said:

 

Are these problems new under Modi govt? 

You know they are not, but what has "modi govt" done to address the well known core underlying issues on improving the ecosystem for manufacturing?  What legal and regulatory changes have they made?  Their "bold" note demonetization cost Indian Economy billion$ - I can forgive mistakes done with good intent, sometimes things don't work out as planned.  But they've had close to a decade now in power, can't keep making excuses and blaming Nehru and Congress.

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14 hours ago, kepler37b said:

Nope. The rot runs deeper. We are not a culture suitable for large scale planning, discipline and organization.

 

 

 

It has nothing to do with culture.  Its has to do with democracy

 

Industrialization is a disruptive process that requires extensive mobilization of land, resources etc...it is not compatible with modern democracy, where dissent and opposition are always considered "healthy"

 

All the "rich" industrial countries even in Asia - Japan, South Korea, Singapore had their best period of industrialization when they were under dictatorial rule or non democratic governance.

 

Japan industrialized like mad post Meiji restoration when imperial non democratic Japan came into being.

South Korea industrialized from a piss poor economy under the rule of Park Chung- Hee from 1963 to 1979.

Singapore has been ruled by one family ( first father, now son ) with an iron fist. It is hardly a democracy.

 

The West industrialized when they were colonial powers under monarchs.

 

It is not India's culture per se but democracy that is the biggest impediment to massive industrialization.

 

Which is why we can only envy what China can do at a breathtaking pace.  Everything China has done over the last 30 years - was done before them by Japan, South Korea and Singapore.

 

US is a very rare example where inspite of democracy they were able to industrialize massively.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by rangeelaraja
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1 hour ago, ravishingravi said:

 

Covid will have base impact in terms of % increase. How can all time highest monthly aboslute exports be attributed to covid last year ?

 

Yearly exports has been 470-650 billion for last 10 years and 34 billion is all time highest monthly export?

 

Something doesn't add up there.

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