India to boycott SAARC summit in Pakistan,Afghanistan Bangladesh and Bhutan may follow suit

[zen]

41 minutes ago, Texan said:

What a pleasant surprise it was to see Afghanistan come out in support of India and against Pak. They have historically had great relations with Pak. Especially new Afghan President was expected to be pro Pak. For Afghans to take such a stance, it is historic. 

This is not surprising at all (but as per expectations) esp to those who follow geopolitics in the region. It would have been surprising if AFG had not supported Ind

 

Edited September 29, 2016 by zen

[Muloghonto]

52 minutes ago, Texan said:

What a pleasant surprise it was to see Afghanistan come out in support of India and against Pak. They have historically had great relations with Pak. Especially new Afghan President was expected to be pro Pak. For Afghans to take such a stance, it is historic. 

It is historic, but I hope NoMo realizes that this is our LAST chance with Afghanistan. 

Afghanistan is AFRAID of Pakistan and they should be. The Taliban were enslaving the local population and they had full support, help and aid of the Pakistani military. This is because Pakistan sees Afghanistan as 'strategic depth' and a key element towards fighting a potential occupation of Pakistan by India.

Remember, the Taliban didnt come to power just in 1999, they were around since 1991-92 atleast (dates are fuzzy but its definitely late 80s/early 90s) and were a key opponent to Rabbani's government. So the thought behind the Taliban & all its planning, logistics, etc. probably started in the late 70s. Before the nuclear era, the Pakistani 'last effort' scenario was this: if India occupies key areas of Pakistan & cuts off their industrial, logistical & agricultural networks, the Pakistani army has one last plan: it melts into Afghanistan through their porous borders & continues a hyper military-insurgency. Think Mao's China vs Kuomintang (where Mao had popular support and Kuomintang failed to win the people). 
So what this means, from this doctrine, instability in Afghanistan is in Pakistan's long term strategic interest. A stable, prosperous & capable Afghanistan creates serious reliability issues in this 'backdoor escape & insurgency plan' working : you are not one or two assassinations away from total collapse of government/framework (as is now). 

 

Afghanistan is doing this, because well Afghanistan is one of the poorest places on this planet and the few sane people left in Afghanistan (who thankfully, have SOME say in their government now) wants to just bloody get on with their lives & live. They want Afghanistan to be developed and cannot rely on Pakistan as an economic, trade export hub. Simply because Pakistan won't stop the lawlessness on its side of the border. So nobody wants major, millions of TEUs type of volume trade going through the Khyber or Bolan. Because if you are a smart thief, you'd steal it there and there would be no way to stop it, since FATA is officially tribal law.  So no investment. 

Their only other way, is this harbor & road through Iran. We are close to doing it, but the moment that happens, Pakistan *WILL* increase insurgency pressure on Afghanistan. It has to, since Afghanistan is :

a) Also quite war like (they don't tend to live & let live injustices either & are insanely muslim)

b) Pakistani meddling in Afghanistan, via the Taliban is not 'old history' with the Pathans, Tajiks or the Hazaras. Stability = they will become more anti-Pakistani. 

 

So I hope Modi knows what he is doing and is not going to simply rely on the 'Afghans will get their shit together if we keep investing money & west keeps giving them military aid'. Because Afghans will not get their shit together. Not that they are incapable of it, but on their own, they cannot keep an aggressive & militaristically meddlesome Paksitani Army from exerting dominance, in their current state of ultra-fractured politics. 

It needs help. Boots on the ground. Is India ready for this ? 

Is Afghanistan ready for this ?

 

Edited September 29, 2016 by Muloghonto

[Texan]

50 minutes ago, zen said:

This is not surprising at all (but as per expectations) esp to those who follow geopolitics in the region. It would have been surprising if AFG had not supported Ind

 

This is only a recent development. Ghani was largely seen as pro Pakistani when he assumed office.

[Texan]

37 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

It is historic, but I hope NoMo realizes that this is our LAST chance with Afghanistan. 

Afghanistan is AFRAID of Pakistan and they should be. The Taliban were enslaving the local population and they had full support, help and aid of the Pakistani military. This is because Pakistan sees Afghanistan as 'strategic depth' and a key element towards fighting a potential occupation of Pakistan by India.

Remember, the Taliban didnt come to power just in 1999, they were around since 1991-92 atleast (dates are fuzzy but its definitely late 80s/early 90s) and were a key opponent to Rabbani's government. So the thought behind the Taliban & all its planning, logistics, etc. probably started in the late 70s. Before the nuclear era, the Pakistani 'last effort' scenario was this: if India occupies key areas of Pakistan & cuts off their industrial, logistical & agricultural networks, the Pakistani army has one last plan: it melts into Afghanistan through their porous borders & continues a hyper military-insurgency. Think Mao's China vs Kuomintang (where Mao had popular support and Kuomintang failed to win the people). 
So what this means, from this doctrine, instability in Afghanistan is in Pakistan's long term strategic interest. A stable, prosperous & capable Afghanistan creates serious reliability issues in this 'backdoor escape & insurgency plan' working : you are not one or two assassinations away from total collapse of government/framework (as is now). 

 

Afghanistan is doing this, because well Afghanistan is one of the poorest places on this planet and the few sane people left in Afghanistan (who thankfully, have SOME say in their government now) wants to just bloody get on with their lives & live. They want Afghanistan to be developed and cannot rely on Pakistan as an economic, trade export hub. Simply because Pakistan won't stop the lawlessness on its side of the border. So nobody wants major, millions of TEUs type of volume trade going through the Khyber or Bolan. Because if you are a smart thief, you'd steal it there and there would be no way to stop it, since FATA is officially tribal law.  So no investment. 

Their only other way, is this harbor & road through Iran. We are close to doing it, but the moment that happens, Pakistan *WILL* increase insurgency pressure on Afghanistan. It has to, since Afghanistan is :

a) Also quite war like (they don't tend to live & let live injustices either & are insanely muslim)

b) Pakistani meddling in Afghanistan, via the Taliban is not 'old history' with the Pathans, Tajiks or the Hazaras. Stability = they will become more anti-Pakistani. 

 

So I hope Modi knows what he is doing and is not going to simply rely on the 'Afghans will get their shit together if we keep investing money & west keeps giving them military aid'. Because Afghans will not get their shit together. Not that they are incapable of it, but on their own, they cannot keep an aggressive & militaristically meddlesome Paksitani Army from exerting dominance, in their current state of ultra-fractured politics. 

It needs help. Boots on the ground. Is India ready for this ? 

Is Afghanistan ready for this ?

 

The fact that at least some people in their administration realize that Pakistan is the root cause of majority of their problems itself is a big gain. Hope Ghani can gather more public support in Afg against Pak.

[jalebi_bhai]

4 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

It is historic, but I hope NoMo realizes that this is our LAST chance with Afghanistan. 

Afghanistan is AFRAID of Pakistan and they should be. The Taliban were enslaving the local population and they had full support, help and aid of the Pakistani military. This is because Pakistan sees Afghanistan as 'strategic depth' and a key element towards fighting a potential occupation of Pakistan by India.

Remember, the Taliban didnt come to power just in 1999, they were around since 1991-92 atleast (dates are fuzzy but its definitely late 80s/early 90s) and were a key opponent to Rabbani's government. So the thought behind the Taliban & all its planning, logistics, etc. probably started in the late 70s. Before the nuclear era, the Pakistani 'last effort' scenario was this: if India occupies key areas of Pakistan & cuts off their industrial, logistical & agricultural networks, the Pakistani army has one last plan: it melts into Afghanistan through their porous borders & continues a hyper military-insurgency. Think Mao's China vs Kuomintang (where Mao had popular support and Kuomintang failed to win the people). 
So what this means, from this doctrine, instability in Afghanistan is in Pakistan's long term strategic interest. A stable, prosperous & capable Afghanistan creates serious reliability issues in this 'backdoor escape & insurgency plan' working : you are not one or two assassinations away from total collapse of government/framework (as is now). 

 

Afghanistan is doing this, because well Afghanistan is one of the poorest places on this planet and the few sane people left in Afghanistan (who thankfully, have SOME say in their government now) wants to just bloody get on with their lives & live. They want Afghanistan to be developed and cannot rely on Pakistan as an economic, trade export hub. Simply because Pakistan won't stop the lawlessness on its side of the border. So nobody wants major, millions of TEUs type of volume trade going through the Khyber or Bolan. Because if you are a smart thief, you'd steal it there and there would be no way to stop it, since FATA is officially tribal law.  So no investment. 

Their only other way, is this harbor & road through Iran. We are close to doing it, but the moment that happens, Pakistan *WILL* increase insurgency pressure on Afghanistan. It has to, since Afghanistan is :

a) Also quite war like (they don't tend to live & let live injustices either & are insanely muslim)

b) Pakistani meddling in Afghanistan, via the Taliban is not 'old history' with the Pathans, Tajiks or the Hazaras. Stability = they will become more anti-Pakistani. 

 

So I hope Modi knows what he is doing and is not going to simply rely on the 'Afghans will get their shit together if we keep investing money & west keeps giving them military aid'. Because Afghans will not get their shit together. Not that they are incapable of it, but on their own, they cannot keep an aggressive & militaristically meddlesome Paksitani Army from exerting dominance, in their current state of ultra-fractured politics. 

It needs help. Boots on the ground. Is India ready for this ? 

Is Afghanistan ready for this ?

 

I have a couple of questions:

 

With 6 military bases in Afghanistan, what would be the US' role if any potential Indo-Pak conflict involving Afghanistan were to happen? 

 

With India providing military asst., for how long would the Afghan forces be able to sustain a western front in your opinion?

[jalebi_bhai]

Great to see fellow SAARC nations supporting India and showing Pakistan their aukat. Now it is time for the responsible global powers to follow suit. Looks like Modi sarkar has some pre-Diwali fireworks in store for our pyaare western padosis.

[vayuu1]

Breaking india destroyed pok terror camps last night folks watch news

Sent from my SM-N900 using Tapatalk

[Muloghonto]

2 hours ago, jalebi_bhai said:

I have a couple of questions:

 

With 6 military bases in Afghanistan, what would be the US' role if any potential Indo-Pak conflict involving Afghanistan were to happen? 

 

With India providing military asst., for how long would the Afghan forces be able to sustain a western front in your opinion?

1. It is too hard to predict US response. In the Afghan-Iran sector it sees Pakistan as a valuable partner and NATO still needs Pakistan to get supplies to Afghanistan- a situation I don't see changing for many, many years (only other option is to go through Iran and USA isn't going to do that for a long while).  Yet, day by day US is moving closer and closer to India. My guess would be that USA is going to try to play the part of 'the elephant that tries to stamp out the fire'. 

 

2. I take it you mean 'how long would the Afghan forces be able to sustain an eastern front' because Pakistan is east of Afghanistan. Depending on what sort of assist. Are we talking about already stationing 50,000 combat-ready personnel of Army & Air Force in Afghanistan to 'bolster the eastern front' ?  Then pretty much indefinitely. If its just monetary and armaments aid to Afghanistan- then not for very long: few to several years, as Pakistan will prevail in a demographic war of attrition with Afghanistan.

 

But then again, it also comes down to how much of direct pressure India causes on Pakistan's eastern front, aka our western front. Theoretically we can have a scenario that Afghanistan just walks into Paksitan, but its unlikely.

 

[Vilander]

This is epic, ball on pak court. India hit the border camps, keep hitting them when ever they form.  F yes.

[Vilander]

Multiple sources across the army and other government agencies have unequivocally confirmed that a small but highly skilled commando force drawn from the elite 9th Para crossed the LoC over foot, marched between 6 and 13 kms before targeting the camps. It is believed that the stealth operation had clearance from the “highest quarters”

 

https://www.thequint.com/uri-attack/2016/09/29/indian-army-dgmo-confirms-pakistan-occupied-kashmir-surgical-operations-first-strike-reported-by-the-quint-9th-para

 

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/pakistan-17-terror-camps-pok-army-bases-muzaffarabad-mansehra-lashkar-toiba-jaish-mohammed-hizbul/1/773329.html

 

 

[Vilander]

 

 

http://www.firstpost.com/india/india-armys-surgical-strikes-pakistan-plays-brave-but-shock-palpable-3026588.html

 

The manner in which the surgical strikes were conducted at seven widely-dispersed locations astride the LoC so successfully by elements of two Special Forces units of the Northern Command speaks highly of professionalism

[Vilander]

so we can expect some nuke deployment across the border apparently, may be some ops from Afganistan side as well. It will escalate, whill India have escalation dominance.

[jalebi_bhai]

9 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

1. It is too hard to predict US response. In the Afghan-Iran sector it sees Pakistan as a valuable partner and NATO still needs Pakistan to get supplies to Afghanistan- a situation I don't see changing for many, many years (only other option is to go through Iran and USA isn't going to do that for a long while).  Yet, day by day US is moving closer and closer to India. My guess would be that USA is going to try to play the part of 'the elephant that tries to stamp out the fire'. 

 

2. I take it you mean 'how long would the Afghan forces be able to sustain an eastern front' because Pakistan is east of Afghanistan. Depending on what sort of assist. Are we talking about already stationing 50,000 combat-ready personnel of Army & Air Force in Afghanistan to 'bolster the eastern front' ?  Then pretty much indefinitely. If its just monetary and armaments aid to Afghanistan- then not for very long: few to several years, as Pakistan will prevail in a demographic war of attrition with Afghanistan.

 

But then again, it also comes down to how much of direct pressure India causes on Pakistan's eastern front, aka our western front. Theoretically we can have a scenario that Afghanistan just walks into Paksitan, but its unlikely.

 

Thanks for the reply. 

 

1. From some defence forum chit-chat, it appears that the Americans were informed by our NSA about our strikes in POK. Yankees didn't object. You are right in saying that their response will be hard to predict. They'll probably do a cost-benefit analysis and act accordingly. Obama administration may not want any serious policy blunders on the way out, so they might play it safe. 

 

2. I meant western front considering Pakistan to be the battleground.

[maniac]

On 9/28/2016 at 0:04 PM, Number said:

But they still have China. No ? 

Their best friend. 

 

More like their Master....Pak is like the kaamwali for China...once in a while they will help them out during the Kaamwaali's domestic problems but not at the expense of their own personal interests.

[Laaloo]

21 minutes ago, maniac said:

More like their Master....Pak is like the kaamwali for China...once in a while they will help them out during the Kaamwaali's domestic problems but not at the expense of their own personal interests.

Where is that prostituion picture where pak is in bed with china? That was funny as shit. Posted on ICF a couple years back.

[The Realist]

2 hours ago, laaloo said:

Where is that prostituion picture where pak is in bed with china? That was funny as shit. Posted on ICF a couple years back.