Objective look at Australian side-can they pull off an upset?

[maniac]

Let me get 1 thing straight

 

This is not a Jinx thread

 

I see a lot of bravado around here as to how we will absolutely crush the Aussies etc. Yeah even I have been guilty of getting carried away.I feel that Aussies are the underdogs and have a lot of  things against them...the obvious ones are

 

• They have an unsettled lineup.
• They just got crushed in Srilanka and by South Africa
• The extremely Poor Pakistani team might have shown them to be stronger than they actually are...hell even there they were vulnerable in a couple of sessions.
• Their wicket keeper is a below-average bat and a very poor keeper. Leave alone Gilchrist,he seems worse than Haddin of all people.
• They have 2-3 glorified part timers  masquerading as spinners.
• They have some rookies in the side who have no clue what is in store for them in India.
• The coach,captaincy and strategies are pretty monotonous and robotic and not very out of the box

 

Now let us look at their strengths

• Starc and Hazelwood are a dangerous pair. Hazelwood has accuracy,moves the ball of the seam,brains to set up the batsmen and a very decent pace at 135+...probably one of the complete fast bowlers in the world today. Mitchell Starc is special. He can take the pitch out of the equation with raw pace. Also very good with exploiting reverse-swing. I mean a good spell from these 2 with a very good 3rd seamer can win games alone for Aus on their day regardless of the pitch
• Dave Warner has the x factor...Here is a guy who can change games in a session....can play spin and has experience on these pitches...can mentally disintegrate opponents. This is the kind of player who can win matches on his own.
• Smith may not look it,but he is one of the most complete batsmen in the world right now.He is very good against spin and his unorthodox technique can catch teams and bowlers off-guard. He has done well in India before and so far he doesn't seem to have any real weakness.
• Lyon is underrated.
• The rookies might be all at sea but at the same time they will be unknown commodities and have no fear as they have nothing to lose.
• Their mental strength
• Their fielding as they will gobble up most half-chances.
• Previous defeats in SC might have them more prepared and alert.

 

 

Stats are there,history books have it documented but regardless of what they tell you Aus can never be taken lightly.The problem is you need to crush the Aussies and never let them dominate because if it is a half-chance they will not let you in they will take it.

 

While purely based on their team,Aussies winning the series is a long shot but I don't we will be absolutely crushing them.Set yourself up for some surprises.

 

 

 

 

[Laaloo]

No

[sandeep]

WTF is the point of that verbal diarrhea.  Its basically a CYA so you can point to it and claim you were right, regardless of the outcome.  

 

[OpeningBatsman]

Nope.

 

But I expect Smith to score runs. England had a much better all round side to compete in India yet they lost 0-4. 

Edited January 24, 2017 by OpeningBatsman

[maniac]

1 hour ago, sandeep said:

WTF is the point of that verbal diarrhea.  Its basically a CYA so you can point to it and claim you were right, regardless of the outcome.  

 

Lol everything is written with an ulterior motive in mind? Gawd....looks like all that ownage delivered is getting to you  

 

I am being objective here....Won't be surprised if Aussies spring a surprise...Yes we will win and even win 4-0 sure.....but let us not get carried away with a false bravado that we will crush them,destroy them etc. They are still capable of springing in surprises based on the factors above.

 

And this is just an objective look of what Aussies have going in their favor.

[maniac]

Mitchell Swepson are there any videos of him?  Is he any good?

 

He seems to be backed by Warne...that is a good start to tell us he is going to be very ordinary

[Vilander]

Well written OP some effort went into it. On Aussie chances may be they can spring in a surprise but i dont expect them to compete like the English who atm are the best team along with SA, after all its India in India no one survives here. 

[Tibarn]

Squad: Steve Smith (c), David Warner (vc), Ashton Agar, Jackson Bird, Peter Handscomb, Josh Hazlewood, Usman Khawaja, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Marsh, Shaun Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Stephen O'Keefe, Matthew Renshaw, Mitchell Starc, Mitchell Swepson, Matthew Wade

 

What about this current Aussie side's performances makes one think they will do well in India. Smith is the only player who has proven ability in spinning conditions. The rest of them, I wouldn't give the benefit of doubt to. I would wager the rest of them are more likely to tumble when Ashwin spins the ball and Jadeja bowls his unrelenting line. All three of Shami/Umesh/Ishant have the pace and ability to reverse the ball as well. Our bowling attack is complete for these conditions: Spin+Pace+Reverse.

 

Most of their main bowlers aren't exactly tailor-made for our conditions and they haven't previously set the world on fire in subcontinental conditions.

 

O'Keefe- he performed well in SL with both a good Strike Rate and Average, but that was one match, 2 innings. He is likely to be their 2nd spinner. How much of his performance was because of it being the first time the Lankans saw him?

Career summary

Grouping	Span	Mat	Inns	Overs	Mdns	Runs	Wkts	BBI	BBM	Ave	Econ	SR	5	10
in Australia	2016-2017	2	3	63.1	14	166	7	3/53	4/103	23.71	2.62	54.1	0	0
in Sri Lanka	2016-2016	1	2	26.4	6	74	3	2/32	3/74	24.66	2.77	53.3	0	0
in U.A.E.	2014-2014	1	2	57.0	6	219	4	2/107	4/219	54.75	3.84	85.5	0	0

 

Hazlewood- Had a decent average in SL, but his SR is basically 73, which shows his inability to take wickets. This is obvious because of his limited reverse swing skills, probably due to his lack of pace.

Career summary

Grouping	Span	Mat	Inns	Overs	Mdns	Runs	Wkts	BBI	BBM	Ave	Econ	SR	5	10
in Australia	2014-2017	15	28	606.1	151	1648	65	6/70	9/136	25.35	2.71	55.9	3	0
in England	2015-2015	4	7	112.0	18	412	16	3/68	5/88	25.75	3.67	42.0	0	0
in New Zealand	2016-2016	2	4	95.0	25	307	9	4/42	6/117	34.11	3.23	63.3	0	0
in Sri Lanka	2016-2016	3	6	84.4	19	229	7	3/21	5/80	32.71	2.70	72.5	0	0
in West Indies	2015-2015	2	4	56.5	27	106	12	5/38	7/56	8.83	1.86	28.4	1	0

Lyon- Look at his Asian performance, his average is high for spinners in these conditions. His SR was only good in the series against us, but we have large turners in a few of the matches in that series. 

Career summary

Grouping	Span	Mat	Inns	Overs	Mdns	Runs	Wkts	BBI	BBM	Ave	Econ	SR	5	10
in Australia	2011-2017	32	62	1282.0	244	4077	118	7/152	12/286	34.55	3.18	65.1	3	1
in England	2013-2015	8	15	255.2	55	755	25	4/42	7/97	30.20	2.95	61.2	0	0
in India	2013-2013	3	6	127.1	9	560	15	7/94	9/165	37.33	4.40	50.8	1	0
in New Zealand	2016-2016	2	4	64.0	13	226	10	4/91	7/123	22.60	3.53	38.4	0	0
in South Africa	2011-2014	5	9	156.0	35	432	12	5/130	6/178	36.00	2.76	78.0	1	0
in Sri Lanka	2011-2016	6	12	248.5	36	806	24	5/34	7/233	33.58	3.23	62.2	1	0
in U.A.E.	2014-2014	2	4	110.0	8	422	3	2/148	2/220	140.66	3.83	220.0	0	0
in West Indies	2012-2015	5	9	184.3	52	491	21	5/68	7/156	23.38	2.66	52.7	1	0

Starc- He had horrible tours of India and UAE. His recent tour of SL looks good, and he can be a good proponent of reverse swing at his pace, but IIRC, those pitches in the SL series were similar to when we toured there last time. There was noticeable help for pacers and he took advantage.

Career summary

Grouping	Span	Mat	Inns	Overs	Mdns	Runs	Wkts	BBI	BBM	Ave	Econ	SR	5	10
in Australia	2011-2017	17	32	639.4	123	2219	74	6/154	8/209	29.98	3.46	51.8	2	0
in England	2013-2015	8	15	262.2	47	906	29	6/111	7/174	31.24	3.45	54.2	2	0
in India	2013-2013	2	3	58.3	9	200	2	2/74	2/125	100.00	3.41	175.5	0	0
in Sri Lanka	2016-2016	3	6	103.2	28	364	24	6/50	11/94	15.16	3.52	25.8	3	1
in U.A.E.	2014-2014	1	2	38.4	5	142	2	2/86	2/142	71.00	3.67	116.0	0	0
in West Indies	2012-2015	3	6	81.2	25	215	12	4/28	6/76	17.91	2.64	40.6	0	0

 

Basically none of their bowlers or batsmen have ever shown to be consistently dangerous in Asian conditions. The safe bet is that they will get hammered. If they win it will be an upset.

 

 

 

[Yoda-esque]

Maniac, I would like to have your job ..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk

[maniac]

7 minutes ago, Yoda-esque said:

Maniac, I would like to have your job ..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk

Requires acumen...loads of it....so not sure if u can handle it

Edited January 24, 2017 by maniac

[ykvyas]

WTF is the point of that verbal diarrhea.  Its basically a CYA so you can point to it and claim you were right, regardless of the outcome.  

 

Exactly - pretty much same thing can be written for any team visiting anywhere let alone india.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Cricketics]

India has to play extremely extremely bad to lose a test match to them.

This means that they dethrone our both spinnerrs Jadeja and Ashwin threat. And along with that they would have to also ensure that they get better of Rahane, Pujara and Kohli both times in a test match.

 

Too many variables for Australia to wonder and conquer. Do not see it happening. 

[maniac]

2 minutes ago, Cricketics said:

India has to play extremely extremely bad to lose a test match to them.

This means that they dethrone our both spinnerrs Jadeja and Ashwin threat. And along with that they would have to also ensure that they get better of Rahane, Pujara and Kohli both times in a test match.

 

Too many variables for Australia to wonder and conquer. Do not see it happening. 

True...India clear cut favorites but just pointing out that Australia have 2 game changers in Warner and Starc who can win games on their own....A very consistent and really good bowler in Hazelwood and on current form one of the top 2-3 batsman in the world in Smith.

 

[BeautifulGame]

Squad: Steve Smith ©, David Warner (vc), Ashton Agar, Jackson Bird, Peter Handscomb, Josh Hazlewood, Usman Khawaja, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Marsh, Shaun Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Stephen O'Keefe, Matthew Renshaw, Mitchell Starc, Mitchell Swepson, Matthew Wade

 

What about this current Aussie side's performances makes one think they will do well in India. Smith is the only player who has proven ability in spinning conditions. The rest of them, I wouldn't give the benefit of doubt to. I would wager the rest of them are more likely to tumble when Ashwin spins the ball and Jadeja bowls his unrelenting line. All three of Shami/Umesh/Ishant have the pace and ability to reverse the ball as well. Our bowling attack is complete for these conditions: Spin+Pace+Reverse.

 

Most of their main bowlers aren't exactly tailor-made for our conditions and they haven't previously set the world on fire in subcontinental conditions.

 

O'Keefe- he performed well in SL with both a good Strike Rate and Average, but that was one match, 2 innings. He is likely to be their 2nd spinner. How much of his performance was because of it being the first time the Lankans saw him?

Career summary

Grouping	Span	Mat	Inns	Overs	Mdns	Runs	Wkts	BBI	BBM	Ave	Econ	SR	5	10
in Australia	2016-2017	2	3	63.1	14	166	7	3/53	4/103	23.71	2.62	54.1	0	0
in Sri Lanka	2016-2016	1	2	26.4	6	74	3	2/32	3/74	24.66	2.77	53.3	0	0
in U.A.E.	2014-2014	1	2	57.0	6	219	4	2/107	4/219	54.75	3.84	85.5	0	0

 

Hazlewood- Had a decent average in SL, but his SR is basically 73, which shows his inability to take wickets. This is obvious because of his limited reverse swing skills, probably due to his lack of pace.

Career summary

Grouping	Span	Mat	Inns	Overs	Mdns	Runs	Wkts	BBI	BBM	Ave	Econ	SR	5	10
in Australia	2014-2017	15	28	606.1	151	1648	65	6/70	9/136	25.35	2.71	55.9	3	0
in England	2015-2015	4	7	112.0	18	412	16	3/68	5/88	25.75	3.67	42.0	0	0
in New Zealand	2016-2016	2	4	95.0	25	307	9	4/42	6/117	34.11	3.23	63.3	0	0
in Sri Lanka	2016-2016	3	6	84.4	19	229	7	3/21	5/80	32.71	2.70	72.5	0	0
in West Indies	2015-2015	2	4	56.5	27	106	12	5/38	7/56	8.83	1.86	28.4	1	0

Lyon- Look at his Asian performance, his average is high for spinners in these conditions. His SR was only good in the series against us, but we have large turners in a few of the matches in that series. 

Career summary

Grouping	Span	Mat	Inns	Overs	Mdns	Runs	Wkts	BBI	BBM	Ave	Econ	SR	5	10
in Australia	2011-2017	32	62	1282.0	244	4077	118	7/152	12/286	34.55	3.18	65.1	3	1
in England	2013-2015	8	15	255.2	55	755	25	4/42	7/97	30.20	2.95	61.2	0	0
in India	2013-2013	3	6	127.1	9	560	15	7/94	9/165	37.33	4.40	50.8	1	0
in New Zealand	2016-2016	2	4	64.0	13	226	10	4/91	7/123	22.60	3.53	38.4	0	0
in South Africa	2011-2014	5	9	156.0	35	432	12	5/130	6/178	36.00	2.76	78.0	1	0
in Sri Lanka	2011-2016	6	12	248.5	36	806	24	5/34	7/233	33.58	3.23	62.2	1	0
in U.A.E.	2014-2014	2	4	110.0	8	422	3	2/148	2/220	140.66	3.83	220.0	0	0
in West Indies	2012-2015	5	9	184.3	52	491	21	5/68	7/156	23.38	2.66	52.7	1	0

Starc- He had horrible tours of India and UAE. His recent tour of SL looks good, and he can be a good proponent of reverse swing at his pace, but IIRC, those pitches in the SL series were similar to when we toured there last time. There was noticeable help for pacers and he took advantage.

Career summary

Grouping	Span	Mat	Inns	Overs	Mdns	Runs	Wkts	BBI	BBM	Ave	Econ	SR	5	10
in Australia	2011-2017	17	32	639.4	123	2219	74	6/154	8/209	29.98	3.46	51.8	2	0
in England	2013-2015	8	15	262.2	47	906	29	6/111	7/174	31.24	3.45	54.2	2	0
in India	2013-2013	2	3	58.3	9	200	2	2/74	2/125	100.00	3.41	175.5	0	0
in Sri Lanka	2016-2016	3	6	103.2	28	364	24	6/50	11/94	15.16	3.52	25.8	3	1
in U.A.E.	2014-2014	1	2	38.4	5	142	2	2/86	2/142	71.00	3.67	116.0	0	0
in West Indies	2012-2015	3	6	81.2	25	215	12	4/28	6/76	17.91	2.64	40.6	0	0

 

Basically none of their bowlers or batsmen have ever shown to be consistently dangerous in Asian conditions. The safe bet is that they will get hammered. If they win it will be an upset.

 

 

 

No the pitches in SriLanka weren't similar to our tour.They were proper turners.Srilanka's best bowlers were Herath and Perera .Starc was exceptional on that tour .

It did help the wickets were dry and they were helping reverse swing.But I doubt he will be able to generate similar reverse with unfamiliar SG ball in our lush outfields .

[maniac]

It's called being objective...isn't that what a cricket forum is for?

 

people want every other statement to be we will crush them, beat them,rip them a new one?

 

can any of you brave punters 100% guarantee a win against even Bangladesh? By that I don't mean a random bravado filled statement but like say bet your house on it...if we knew everything 100% we would all be billionaires.

 

yes India is expected to beat Bangladesh being the no1 team playing against a no.9 team with India having better and more established cricketers.

 

that doesn't mean that we cannot say Tamim, Shakib,Fizz and that new spinner might be the ones to watch out for...isn't that being objective?

 

All I am saying is in Australia's case they are the underdog and we are the favorites but it is not going to be a cakewalk given they too have 3-4 match winners.

 

It applied to England as well...he'll they drew 1 game and had upper hand in a couple of tests for a few sessions.

 

let us not be over the top like padosis shall we? Even they have mellowed down...obviously it took a lot of prison poundings to get there but we are more mature so let us have an objective discussion.

 

i really liked @Tibarn analysis.

[BCCI]

Lyon is a very ordinary bowler.He is not underrated at all.

 

And the point about the mental strength is again futile one.Once the ball starts turning ,they all will fall like nine pins.Its the most non-resilient Aus side in history.

 

Personally looking forward to Handscomb vs our spinners.He to me looked very innocuous and mediocre but scored runs in every innings against Pakistan.Reminds me of Clarke,comes down the track to every ball from spinner.I think his bradmanesque average will take quite a beating. 

[maniac]

10 hours ago, BCCI said:

Lyon is a very ordinary bowler.He is not underrated at all.

 

And the point about the mental strength is again futile one.Once the ball starts turning ,they all will fall like nine pins.Its the most non-resilient Aus side in history.

 

Personally looking forward to Handscomb vs our spinners.He to me looked very innocuous and mediocre but scored runs in every innings against Pakistan.Reminds me of Clarke,comes down the track to every ball from spinner.I think his bradmanesque average will take quite a beating. 

Handscomb is very average...Pakistanis have made him look like a million bucks....Renshaw has a bigger upside,shwon some great footwork but then again it was only against Yasir Ali and Azhar Ali's spin. 

 

Clarke was very good off the backfoot and front foot and very fast hands which made him good against SPin almost like  amore conventional version of Steve Smith.

 

I think Starc and Hazelwood are going to be the biggest threat on this tour. Even if one of Warner or Smith look off color we are in for a treat.

[cowboysfan]

Nothing I have seen from the aussies show they can play quality spin.

[fineleg]

13 hours ago, Cricketics said:

India has to play extremely extremely bad to lose a test match to them.

This means that they dethrone our both spinnerrs Jadeja and Ashwin threat. And along with that they would have to also ensure that they get better of Rahane, Pujara and Kohli both times in a test match.

 

Too many variables for Australia to wonder and conquer. Do not see it happening. 

In his current (out of) form  - that is easy. Rahane will get out for low scores, all by himself.

[Cricketics]

1 minute ago, fineleg said:

In his current (out of) form  - that is easy. Rahane will get out for low scores, all by himself.

He did not have a horrible run like you make it out. He was getting starts. Based on his current form, he hit a hundred in an LOI in the warm up game against England. So batting in a test match where he has all the time in the world, he should do better.

 

Rahane is not just one of the best of India, he is one of the best in the world.