Singh bling Posted November 28, 2019 Posted November 28, 2019 (edited) Jharkhand opinion poll is showing bjp getting around 33 seats . In Karnataka they desperately need 8-9 by poll seats. Looks like golden days of BJP are over Edited November 28, 2019 by Singh bling
javier26 Posted November 28, 2019 Posted November 28, 2019 Maharashtra has been a big blow to BJP, Karnataka is expected to follow suit. Their good days are behind them. sergio04 1
FischerTal Posted November 28, 2019 Posted November 28, 2019 Same thing was said after 2015 Bihar. Let’s talk after a couple of years. Stan AF 1
FischerTal Posted November 28, 2019 Posted November 28, 2019 19 minutes ago, javier26 said: Maharashtra has been a big blow to BJP, Karnataka is expected to follow suit. Their good days are behind them. How? By winning most number of seats and having largest vote share?
Mariyam Posted November 28, 2019 Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, FischerTal said: How? By winning most number of seats and having largest vote share? I would take result that with a pinch of salt. The pre poll SS BJP alliance basically determined who would contest from which Vidhan Sabha constituency. In effect, the seats in which the BJP fielded their candidate, the SS vote automatically transferred to the BJP. And vice versa. The part of Maharashtra where the SS is generally weak: drought hit Vidarbha and the sugarcane belt, the BJP didn't do too well. Obviously, SS is mainly an urban phenomenon only.
Singh bling Posted November 28, 2019 Author Posted November 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, FischerTal said: Same thing was said after 2015 Bihar. Let’s talk after a couple of years. Demo turned the table for BJP. Poor people , farmers got firmly behind BJP . BJP may need same master stroke in near future.
sergio04 Posted November 28, 2019 Posted November 28, 2019 (edited) Congress will come to power in 2024. Edited November 28, 2019 by sergio04 Norman 1
Gollum Posted November 28, 2019 Posted November 28, 2019 Bhai 2019 result was a bigger mandate than 2014, 303>282 and 37.3%>31.3%. Their voteshare is going up in many states, they are making inroads in new frontiers, not all doom and gloom. Be happy EVM won't be a talking point for a few months. No sympathy for their regional satraps, if they are good enough they will make amends and come back strongly....most people vote for Modi in GE, he can't come to the rescue every time.
mishra Posted November 28, 2019 Posted November 28, 2019 (edited) There is politics and their is support base. I think Support base is going up as vote share of BJP hasn’t gone down. However, In its anti corruption drive, It has burned some bridges which it shouldn’t have. This is Last ditch political effort of its allies and opponents but Rebalancing will occur as Modi has time on its side. Edited November 28, 2019 by mishra
Singh bling Posted November 28, 2019 Author Posted November 28, 2019 55 minutes ago, Gollum said: Bhai 2019 result was a bigger mandate than 2014, 303>282 and 37.3%>31.3%. Their voteshare is going up in many states, they are making inroads in new frontiers, not all doom and gloom. Be happy EVM won't be a talking point for a few months. No sympathy for their regional satraps, if they are good enough they will make amends and come back strongly....most people vote for Modi in GE, he can't come to the rescue every time. At National level there is hardly anyone who can challenge and if things did not change then even expect same results in 2024. The real challenge for BJP is in states where barring UP they hardly won landslide victories. Maharashtra was looking cakewalk but after the alliance is broken they are now in not so good position.
G_B_ Posted November 28, 2019 Posted November 28, 2019 What this map does not show is that bjp is now the master of the opposition space in states such as odisha and west bengal. Ie the lotus is rapidly expanding. In wb for eg the recent bypolls bjp got 39% The ultimate goal of the bjp should be to be either in power of the main opposition in every major state. Wins and losses keep happening but if your not even in the running then its an issue. Telangana and AP should be next in the line if states the bjp formally occupies the opposition space in the next election cycle. Most states are cyclical in nature. Eventually states like rajasthan and mp will be back in the kitty. For eg rajasthan has always alternated governments. The last major state the congress defended was assam 2011. As for karnataka, if bjp gets good in the bypolls then fair enough. But i suspect jds wants to avoid elections badly and will work a deal out. My message to bjp supporters is we have had a great ride the last 5 years. Lets take the losses on the chin and ride out the cyclical nature of state politics. Let the seculars have their moment. They have won battles but have lost the war in ls 2019. adi B and coffee_rules 2
FischerTal Posted November 29, 2019 Posted November 29, 2019 (edited) 8 hours ago, Mariyam said: I would take result that with a pinch of salt. The pre poll SS BJP alliance basically determined who would contest from which Vidhan Sabha constituency. In effect, the seats in which the BJP fielded their candidate, the SS vote automatically transferred to the BJP. And vice versa. The part of Maharashtra where the SS is generally weak: drought hit Vidarbha and the sugarcane belt, the BJP didn't do too well. Obviously, SS is mainly an urban phenomenon only. In SS BJP alliance fadnavis was clear CM candidate. People don’t vote for MLAs or MPs on basis of individual representing them. Yes BJP suffered in drought hit areas but same drought hit areas gave thumping majority to them in 2019 general elections. The BJP can also fight in those same urban areas where Sena is strong. In future, this will benefit NCP and Cong if hindu right vote is fractured. What’s going to happen is Mid level Sena leaders will soon realize this when jolts come in future elections. I am keenly awaiting the next BBMC elections in 2022. Edited November 29, 2019 by FischerTal
FischerTal Posted November 29, 2019 Posted November 29, 2019 8 hours ago, Singh bling said: Demo turned the table for BJP. Poor people , farmers got firmly behind BJP . BJP may need same master stroke in near future. They are expecting NRC to help them in Assam and Bengal, but don’t know what else they can do in rest of country. Visible action against corrupts need to be seen. I hope Modi finally stops treating sharad pawar with kid gloves and throws that old fart in jail once and for all. I don’t understand why he was given Padma vibhushan in the first place.
vayuu1 Posted November 29, 2019 Posted November 29, 2019 47 minutes ago, FischerTal said: They are expecting NRC to help them in Assam and Bengal, but don’t know what else they can do in rest of country. Visible action against corrupts need to be seen. I hope Modi finally stops treating sharad pawar with kid gloves and throws that old fart in jail once and for all. I don’t understand why he was given Padma vibhushan in the first place. NRC Onol Anti conversion bill If BJP can somehow tables economy wise, they're will be the leading force. FischerTal 1
cowboysfan Posted November 29, 2019 Posted November 29, 2019 you guys are making the same mistakes,People vote for Local issues in local elections.Modi is still very popular and i dont see any change in that barring marring catastrophic *ups
Stan AF Posted November 29, 2019 Posted November 29, 2019 Naah. No decline. Don't think so. What are you guys smoking?.
Stan AF Posted November 29, 2019 Posted November 29, 2019 (edited) The rate at which allies are leaving is quite alarming though. PDP/TDP, now SS and I heard even their allies in Bihar are going to contest separately in jharkand (???)state polls. Akali & (aiadmk ) are the next big names and I must say if admk had contested alone they would have won atleast 5 MP seats. Edited November 29, 2019 by Stan AF
velu Posted November 29, 2019 Posted November 29, 2019 3 hours ago, Stan AF said: The rate at which allies are leaving is quite alarming though. PDP/TDP, now SS and I heard even their allies in Bihar are going to contest separately in jharkand (???)state polls. Akali & aiadmk ( ) are the next big names and I must say if admk had contested alone they would have won atleast 5 MP seats. if BJPs fall is alarming , you shld be happy na .. anyway what you consider as alarming might not be considered as alarming by others
G_B_ Posted November 29, 2019 Posted November 29, 2019 7 hours ago, FischerTal said: In SS BJP alliance fadnavis was clear CM candidate. People don’t vote for MLAs or MPs on basis of individual representing them. Yes BJP suffered in drought hit areas but same drought hit areas gave thumping majority to them in 2019 general elections. The BJP can also fight in those same urban areas where Sena is strong. In future, this will benefit NCP and Cong if hindu right vote is fractured. What’s going to happen is Mid level Sena leaders will soon realize this when jolts come in future elections. I am keenly awaiting the next BBMC elections in Sena had two planks. Marathi regionalism and Hindutva. They gave up plank number 2. Bjp needs to heavily fund mns to eat into plank number 1 again. If mns gets around 10 to 15% in greater mumbai then sena is in trouble. Though sena are an urban party, its more region specific. They have limited mlas from pune metropolitan areas for eg. Mumbai, Thane , kalyan dombivali, nashik aurangabad are cites where they make an impact. Ie its not uniformly urban pan maharashtra. The sena also have a large stake in the entire 36 mla konkan region rural or urban. This is where narayan rane needs to deliver for the bjp. Especially in lower konkan. Bjp needs to start first by moving sena lok sabha mps to defect enmasse. It will create a sense of panic. Wait and watch from that point.
FischerTal Posted November 29, 2019 Posted November 29, 2019 2 hours ago, G_B_ said: Sena had two planks. Marathi regionalism and Hindutva. They gave up plank number 2. Bjp needs to heavily fund mns to eat into plank number 1 again. If mns gets around 10 to 15% in greater mumbai then sena is in trouble. Though sena are an urban party, its more region specific. They have limited mlas from pune metropolitan areas for eg. Mumbai, Thane , kalyan dombivali, nashik aurangabad are cites where they make an impact. Ie its not uniformly urban pan maharashtra. The sena also have a large stake in the entire 36 mla konkan region rural or urban. This is where narayan rane needs to deliver for the bjp. Especially in lower konkan. Bjp needs to start first by moving sena lok sabha mps to defect enmasse. It will create a sense of panic. Wait and watch from that point. Looking at the way Raut is behaving, I feel like they were planning this for a long time. I guess they weren't too happy at not getting enough respect in NDA 1. Funding MNS seems like a good plan on paper, but will that affect BJP's North Indian vote bank in Mumbai? They cant be seen as too clause to a chauvinist like Raj.
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