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Bahut hui Junta par petrol diesel ki maar, abki baar Modi sarkar


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2 hours ago, Singh bling said:

Seriously , you believe that only people with cars need petrol ? We have millions which use petrol in bikes scooters. And if they sit at home how will they earn . 95% or more jobs don't have any concept of work from home. And even if petrol goes to 200 per litre people will still buy it. The only consequence will be no more saving for future for children's education , health , parents , marriage etc. This means you will be going into more and more financial misery fers

 

The post like above clearly tells how much icfers are out of touch from reality .


Well I think your reality needs numbers and clear trends to back up. Basic principles of economics don’t change by the political lens you wear. When one has no story, which you usually don’t, it comes down to “ I spoke to cab driver” arguments. 
 

1) Assertion is that petrol is over priced. ( Crude is 90$ now ) 


2) Petrol doesn’t have inelastic demand. This means that increase in prices beyond equilibrium should reduce demand for the sections who use it. It hasn’t. The demand for automobiles is also up now. In a dire economy with increase in petrol and car sales, how are you establishing that prices are unaffordable. If people are buying its affordable. That’s just basic economics. 

 

3) It clearly shows that either you are not from India or your understanding of India is from google. The two wheeler segment doesn’t depend a great deal on public transport in metros. Neither does the 4 wheeler segment. In tier 2 and below, the dependency is almost nil.
 

So, who are these people moving to cars and bikes because of corona. You need to back up your claims with some actual data. It helps to take you seriously. 

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24 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

1) Assertion is that petrol is over priced. ( Crude is 90$ now )

83-85 for last few days. That's 6300-6400 Indian rupees per barell. One barell is 158 litre. So, that's 38-40 Rupees per litre. So, where does that extra 60-70 rupees go.

 

It's price in international market was just half the current value a few years ago. In fact, for the majority of 2020, it was way cheaper. Petrol prices were still rising.

 

https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/202021-a-year-of-great-volatility-in-oil-prices-101617168594407.html

 

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15 minutes ago, Chakdephatte said:

83-85 for last few days. That's 6300-6400 Indian rupees per barell. One barell is 158 litre. So, that's 38-40 Rupees per litre. So, where does that extra 60-70 rupees go.

 

It's price in international market was just half the current value a few years ago. In fact, for the majority of 2020, it was way cheaper. Petrol prices were still rising.

 

https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/202021-a-year-of-great-volatility-in-oil-prices-101617168594407.html

 

 

Ambani and Adani:money:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Or maybe Central & State govt treasuries

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I dont understand this topic

 

Petrol is taxed high for this reason

 

A) We import it and it puts a strain on our current account deficit. It needs to be used judiciously. If you lower its price and import more of it the CAD widens and you simply have higher inflation due to a decline in the Rupee against the USD. People who complain about price of petrol will switch to complaining about inflation.

B) We dont have a strong direct tax base. This needs to improve over time with a wider net being cast and it is happening slowly. But till have happens indirect taxes are the only means for the GoI to function.

C) In light of the covid-19 pandemic the government needs money to run affairs. If they borrow more then there will be more inflation and a repeat of point A will happen. Our tax to GDP ratio is very low. Taxes in general simply need to rise. Indians come to the west and marvel how "civilised" things are. They forget that the average tax to GDP ratio for OCED countries is 35%. In India the figure stands at 15%.

 

I have seen many people quote prices from Pakistan. The same people dont quote the inflation in Pakistan as a result of the government borrowing more. The IMF actually have repeatedly asked Pakistani gov to tax petrol more.

 

The vast majority of Indians own scooters or mopeds with KM per L that is not impacted much by the rising cost of petrol. The people who are most impacted are truckers who have very old fleet which consume a lot of fuel. The average age of a truck is 13 years old in India which is high. This is because this sector is highly disorganised with single owners. There is no economy of scale. This impacts the general cost of consumer goods which need to be transported from point A to B. A solution to this is Indian railways which is in the process of being run 100% on electricity to be used more for freight. This will blunt price rises to a different degree. 

 

If you feel petrol is high in a few years you have the choice to shift to electric mopeds which are at competitive prices. You can also switch to hatchbacks from SUV's for better mileage. While its true that GOI is likely to boost the taxes on a unit of electricity, the plan is to widen the direct tax base to reduce indirect taxation. To these tax rises will be much less.

 

 

 

 

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Re Modi

 

The hoarding in the OP was in the 2012-2014 time segment.

 

(a) As inflation in india has a 4-5% base rate. Rs 100 in 2012 is likely to be roughly Rs150 in 2021. So in that context todays prices of petrol of around Rs100 are likely to be Rs 60-70 in 2012-2014.

(b) In the 2012 to 2014 period the prices of petrol oscillated between Rs80-90. This was a combination of higher prices in USD and the Indian rupee falling rapidly against the USD. UPA cannot be blamed for the former, but can be blamed for the later when they spent beyond their means with subsidies. This led to a collapse in the value of the rupee against the USD.

(c) UPA then tried to subsidies diesel prices but ended up simply running a large deficit which resulted in inflation rate higher than 8%+ in an era which was deemed to be normal for the world economy.

 

I hope these provide context to the people who are making very simple arguments to what is a complex problem. In general the Indian middle class, especially the self employed not paying their share of taxes is the biggest issue any current or future government needs to address. Digitisation is simply the first step.

 

 

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Lol , electric scooters argument again, which absolutely has no infrastructure to support mass usage now. Can't expect NRI keyboard warriors to understand the ground reality in India. Spoke to a swiggy delivery person yesterday, who had some very "colourful" words for the PM. 

 

Silver lining in this choas , since it is directly affecting the livelihood of millions, maybe we can see a shift in the favorability? We still have time for elections though, and I won't be surprised if they drastically reduce the price to 90 rs and act as if they "saved" the country. 

Edited by ash
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1 minute ago, ash said:

Can't expect NRI keyboard warriors to understand the ground reality in India. Spoke to a swiggy delivery person yesterday, who had some very "colourful" words for the PM. 

 

Silver lining in this choas , since it is directly affecting the livelihood of millions, maybe we can see a shift in the favorability? We still have time for elections though, and I won't be surprised if they drastically reduce the price to 90 rs and act as if they "saved" the country. 

 

 

Basic economics and financial sense comes only via secondary data and keyboards...

 

Something subjective social scientists need to understand.

 

I notice BJP rules states like Assam have reduced the price of petrol. I hope TN ruled DMK follow suit...

 

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1 minute ago, G_B_ said:

 

 

Basic economics and financial sense comes only via secondary data and keyboards...

 

Something subjective social scientists need to understand.

 

I notice BJP rules states like Assam have reduced the price of petrol. I hope TN ruled DMK follow suit...

 

Clever comeback, but wish you had followed the news. DMK reduced it two months back. 

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1 minute ago, ash said:

Clever comeback, but wish you had followed the news. DMK reduced it two months back. 

 

yes they did...by Rs3 a litre. Assam did it by Rs5.

 

Assam is a much poorer state. You should know that of the taxes even the states have a % which they levy. Hopefully DMK too cuts more fuel duty.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

 

yes they did...by Rs3 a litre. Assam did it by Rs5.

 

Assam is a much poorer state. You should know that of the taxes even the states have a % which they levy. Hopefully DMK too cuts more fuel duty.

 

 

Yes, please pass on the burden to states to reduce the state tax further, when the central tax is almost 10 rs more than the state tax. Anything to shift focus from Modi Ji :two_thumbs_up:

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2 hours ago, G_B_ said:

 

yes they did...by Rs3 a litre. Assam did it by Rs5.

 

Assam is a much poorer state. You should know that of the taxes even the states have a % which they levy. Hopefully DMK too cuts more fuel duty.

 

 

Reducing state taxes is the dumbest thing you can do. State taxes are more important for everyday life of a citizen. The central government should be taking the burden off, not individual states

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I'm all for reducing fuel prices for the sake of common man who will be impacted directly & indirectly even for a single two wheeler household. Although the idea of a carbon tax is appealing but the timing is quite bad for that. 

 

The question is what should be done about reduced revenues and higher expenses during the pandemic:

 

Let the deficit rise for now, take a hit at credit rating 

 

Oil bonds

 

Higher income tax on higher income segment & roll back some corporate tax cuts 

 

Other options, maybe few liters of cheaper petrol based on income, like that ration card from the last century. For diesel it will be trickier to track consumption for essential vs other goods. 

 

No easy answers I guess 

 

 

 

Edited by Clarke
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2 hours ago, New guy said:

Reducing state taxes is the dumbest thing you can do. State taxes are more important for everyday life of a citizen. The central government should be taking the burden off, not individual states


Very interesting. I don’t have enough awareness of this. So in which specific ways will state cutting taxes effect daily life of citizens and how will centre cutting taxes not effect the citizens. 

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2 hours ago, New guy said:

Reducing state taxes is the dumbest thing you can do. State taxes are more important for everyday life of a citizen. The central government should be taking the burden off, not individual states

 

is this for real?

 

This BJP government has decided to pay most farmers Rs6000 a year directly into their accounts. This figure is set to rise. Gone is the era of CG sending money to states and then letting the SG dispersing it as they wish.  You can get benefit direct into your account bypassing even local admin. Its the same with the ayushman bharat scheme. On the base scheme state governments are free to add additional funding. Governments like Odisha add to the Rs6000 scheme.

 

Secondly states can tax other parts of their respective economies to supplement income. These range from property taxes to raising cost of other utilities. 

 

 

CG hands are tied as UPA subsidies oil via oil bonds 10-15 years ago which are maturing now. Else a Rs 5 cut would be coming.

 

@ash should note DMK was part of the UPA government when the oil bonds were issued, Literally kicked the can down the road.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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https://www.livemint.com/news/india/lpg-price-commercial-cylinder-hiked-by-rs-266-check-latest-rates-11635736415361.html

 

LPG price rise: Commercial cylinder hiked by 266. Check latest rates

Quote

The prices of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) cooking gas were hiked by Rs  266 from today onwards. Commercial cylinders of the 19 kg in Delhi will cost 2000.50 from today onwards which was costing 1734 earlier. However, in relief to household consumers, no increase were announced in the price of domestic LPG cylinders.

 

 

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I suspect CG waited for the GST numbers. Once they were strong enough they passed on the savings in petrol.

 

Wise move. The congress logic of bypolls causing the change is pure BS. Assam in which the BJP swept is also passing on state level cutbacks.

 

Apart from HP which was more of an internal struggle of the Dhumal clan vs Nadda than the congress, BJP generally did well. They had 8 seats before and ended up with 9 seats. NDA partners too did well. Places like Deglur in Maharashtra BJP had never won the seat the vote share increased from 14% in 2014 to 35% in 2021.  There was also a heavy improvement in Ellanabad where the Congress lost its deposit.

 

 

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