A non cricketing reason for why India may not be a big favorite at ICC events

[zen]

There are various cricketing reasons as to why India has failed to win an ICC event recently including:

 

• Creating a superstar oriented system 
• Promoting a stats focused mindset (when many don't even understand different dimensions of stats) 
• Ignoring innovation to the extent of relying on "tested" (read outdated) methods till there is no other way but to change 
• Failing to push the limits of its players (and promoting % cricket)
• Bundling under pressure of expectations 
• And so on 

 

However, here I am focusing on a non-cricketing reason -> win quota, the luck side of things.  

 

Every individual & team has a win quota. To be in the position to have a win quota, a team should have a talented group of players. In 1983, WI lost the WC final because the win quota of that generation of players was over (also distributed in Tests). Despite reaching semis of 1985 Aus event & 1989 final of Nehru Cup, it still lost. In fact, it even missed out of the 1987 WC semis. 

 

Current Indian team has players who could have already used up their win quota -> 2007 T20 WC (Dhoni, Yuvi, Sehwag, Rohit, GG, etc.), 2011 (Dhoni, Yuvi, Sehwag, GG, Kohli, etc.), & 2013 CT (Dhoni, Kohli, Rohit, Jadeja, etc.). Once you use up your win quota, a Yuvi stalls the proceedings in the final of 2014 T20 WC, An Aus breezes past you in 2015 SF, a WI smashes you in 2016 T20 SF, a Pak fires unexpectedly in 2017 CT final, & a NZ reduces you to 5/3 in 2019 SF,  along with India going nowhere by playing 2 spinners in WTC final against NZ. 

 

If the win quota has expired of key Indian players, India is likely to win a major event after the 2007-13 batch (Kohli & Rohit, & maybe Jadeja) is out of team India. To win major events, India would need to bank on the next generation of talented cricketers, who would bring their own win quota to the table. 

 

Some teams like Aus have had endless win quota historically (ever since Bradman days) but for the rest, it can be limited (SA still is searching for it). For fans' sake, I hope that some luck still remains as some of these guys are expected to play till 2023. However, expect 2024 onwards period to be better when the next generation (post 2013 batch) completely takes over. 

 

 

Edited May 12, 2022 by zen

[Mesky99]

Way to much media pressure and fan expectations, it's like they think it should be a cake walk for the team without any hassle, Rohit, Rahul looked so nervous against Pak while stepping out.

[Lone Wolf]

I have never seen a Indian team so much under pressure like they were in recent WT20 game vs Pak.  The whole vibe to that game right from the toss was negative. 

 

If the same bunch played 2011 WC SF..  They moghtbhave pi's**ed Their pants under that gargantuan buildup & pressure.  Salute to Raina SRT Sehwag & the bowlers.  That was Australia esque ability to play under that enormous pressure. 

[Gambit]

There should be a Dinda academy for such theories.

[nevada]

14 hours ago, Lone Wolf said:

I have never seen a Indian team so much under pressure like they were in recent WT20 game vs Pak.  The whole vibe to that game right from the toss was negative. 

 

If the same bunch played 2011 WC SF..  They moghtbhave pi's**ed Their pants under that gargantuan buildup & pressure.  Salute to Raina SRT Sehwag & the bowlers.  That was Australia esque ability to play under that enormous pressure. 

That was a fixed game and has been discussed at length on ICF. You may read about it here.

[rollingstoned]

On 5/13/2022 at 3:33 AM, zen said:

There are various cricketing reasons as to why India has failed to win an ICC event recently including:

 

• Creating a superstar oriented system 
• Promoting a stats focused mindset (when many don't even understand different dimensions of stats) 
• Ignoring innovation to the extent of relying on "tested" (read outdated) methods till there is no other way but to change 
• Failing to push the limits of its players (and promoting % cricket)
• Bundling under pressure of expectations 
• And so on 

 

However, here I am focusing on a non-cricketing reason -> win quota, the luck side of things.  

 

Every individual & team has a win quota. To be in the position to have a win quota, a team should have a talented group of players. In 1983, WI lost the WC final because the win quota of that generation of players was over (also distributed in Tests). Despite reaching semis of 1985 Aus event & 1989 final of Nehru Cup, it still lost. In fact, it even missed out of the 1987 WC semis. 

 

Current Indian team has players who could have already used up their win quota -> 2007 T20 WC (Dhoni, Yuvi, Sehwag, Rohit, GG, etc.), 2011 (Dhoni, Yuvi, Sehwag, GG, Kohli, etc.), & 2013 CT (Dhoni, Kohli, Rohit, Jadeja, etc.). Once you use up your win quota, a Yuvi stalls the proceedings in the final of 2014 T20 WC, An Aus breezes past you in 2015 SF, a WI smashes you in 2016 T20 SF, a Pak fires unexpectedly in 2017 CT final, & a NZ reduces you to 5/3 in 2019 SF,  along with India going nowhere by playing 2 spinners in WTC final against NZ. 

 

If the win quota has expired of key Indian players, India is likely to win a major event after the 2007-13 batch (Kohli & Rohit, & maybe Jadeja) is out of team India. To win major events, India would need to bank on the next generation of talented cricketers, who would bring their own win quota to the table. 

 

Some teams like Aus have had endless win quota historically (ever since Bradman days) but for the rest, it can be limited (SA still is searching for it). For fans' sake, I hope that some luck still remains as some of these guys are expected to play till 2023. However, expect 2024 onwards period to be better when the next generation (post 2013 batch) completely takes over. 

 

 

Win quota is a way of saying that the law of averages will catch up to you at some point. I agree as it makes sense intuitively but because you cannot prove this with hard data it will be disregarded as an excuse for not being able to achieve success. You need the 'perfect storm'to win icc titles sometimes like the 2017 CT. 

[zen]

20 hours ago, rollingstoned said:

Win quota is a way of saying that the law of averages will catch up to you at some point.

With “win quota” there is no catching up. Say that every team or individual has a win quota, which can be 0 wins or 1 win or 2 wins or whatever within a  specific period (or playing career), once that gets fulfilled, it’s done. If it is not fulfilled, it eventually gets fulfilled. 

Edited May 15, 2022 by zen

[goose]

that's my zen post quota done for the year

[waga]

On 5/13/2022 at 6:03 PM, MultiB48 said:

Half of the 50 over wc have been won by aus,the rest aren't up to the mark ,they just buckle under pressure .If aus team isn't playing well then others have a chance .Even in the last 50 over wc both nz and eng struggled to finish the job in the final.

 

By comparison t20s are unpredictable ,wi have won 2 wcs but they weren't easy wins, could have easily gone the other way, specially the 2nd one.

Yeah World cups are a bit tricky to base your cricket around because the results are so random and it happens so infrequently. Especially t20, Im glad that Australian won the t20 world cup but were they the best team - no. But any of England, New Zealand, Pakistan, India, Australia, West Indies could have won it with the exact same team and exact same mindset they had.

The ODI world cup is less random but lets also remember at the start of the tournament it was rainy and the ball was swinging and England were very close to not making the semi-finals because they kept collapsing when the ball was swinging even a little bit. but then the rain stopped, everything became a road again and swinging through the line gave you free runs until the final that was decided by a dropped sitter, an incorrect run awarded for overthrows, one of the only overthrow 4s off the bat in history, a super over and then a boundary count. 

[Adamant]

Desi mindset of blaming things on luck. 

 

I know that Mathematics is difficult for some guys but I still expect common sense. 

[sensible-indian]

Very very interesting post.

 

Loved reading it.

 

Not sure if its true but makes fir a fascinating theory.

[zen]

18 minutes ago, sensible-indian said:

Very very interesting post.

 

Loved reading it.

 

Not sure if its true but makes fir a fascinating theory.

Good to know! … There can multiple perspective to view a situation 

 

From an astrologer’s PoV, the winner is decided based on stars … For a numerologist PoV, numbers have some magical powers, and so on … At some point, I would like to look into those too 

 

The more you know about something, the more you realize that there is more to know as you become aware of “unknown unknowns”

 

Such threads are also a test to see who has the the open mind to explore new ideas so you passed the test as well! 

Edited May 21, 2022 by zen

[WC2011INDIA]

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