How do you see the future of China in the next 3 decades ?

[rangeelaraja]

3 decades is a long time to make the impossible, possible.

 

One could not have imagined the state of China's comprehensive national power today when one looks back about 30 years around 1990. 

 

India and China had almost identical GDPs.

 

One could not have imagined the physical disintegration of the military juggernaut of USSR.

 

I genuinely feel China's downfall has started with covid-19. It is difficult to wean away in 1 year manufacturing dependency that was build over 30 years.

 

China's people now over 30 times richer on a per capita basis ( USD 318 per capita gdp in 1990 vs > $ 10000 in 2021 )  -- will they not demand greater freedom and less likely to be bullied by CCP ?

 

It is a bloody shame that Europe is not united against China in a firm manner that it should. This can be partly attributed to the idiotic German chancellor Merkel, who prefers to bow down to China's coercive economic policies.

 

I feel very strongly - well within a decade, there will be an alliance of major powers to take down China in all forms.

 

The final piece in this puzzle is Russia - once a great proud power - now become an economic puppy of China because of sanction's from the west.

 

If the West cannot offer Russia enough incentives to break the Sino-Russia alliance it would be sheer stupidity.  Ofcourse, this will only happen once Putin leaves the political scene.

 

I just don't see China succeeding anymore with its indiscriminate thuggery and coercion.

 

Thoughts ?

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 20, 2021 by rangeelaraja

[Vilander]

Not a democracy its a capitalist one party authoritarian regime calling it self communist. By all human experience this won't work for a global leader civilization it might become a superpower if it already is not one but if it does become the leader of the world it will be a distopiyan one as there is nothing free about China. 

[chewy]

The rate development of is staggering. The CCP has built an alternate reality for their population. Having been to Shanghai, Shenzhen and some tier II cities, the mission is a united one...as a nation to achieve a high income status at the expense of civil and creative freedom.

 

The construction of high speed rail network is unbelievable, I believe now bigger than world's combined, India, intact US can only dream. 

 

 

 

[Khota]

They are an authoritarian regime. They will never be a democratic society but will run capitalistic market place ideas.

 

They will be the largest economy soon. India because of its inefficiencies is missing theboat.

 

They will never be US like superpower. US gets friend and China has to buy friends like NK and Pakistan.

[Ranvir]

No they have a great future. They have great economical development and also the military firepower to make sure no one messes with them. They also don't get involved in needless wars throughout the world like the whites (USA, Britain, Russia, France) do.

 

It's just jealous Indians who are hoping for their downfall, which will never come. But hey India is the Number Vun democracy in the vorld. 

 

As soon as all of China's population is educated and they all have living standards comparable to Japan and South Korea they will have democracy. Indians haven't been able to handle democracy and even 70 years later they still cannot.

 

The amount of progress China have made is staggering. While the likes of Shashi Tharoor keep on going about how the British ruined India, China have kept their head down and soared ahead in just 30 years.

 

China pays for their top students to go to Oxford and Harvard, providing they come back and help develop the country. India's talent goes to America and boosts the economy of America. That is the difference.

 

Look at the Dalai Lama, all the western governments used to suck up to him and give him a big platform to say negative things about China. Now he is forbidden to speak in many places out of locap fear of ruining relationships with China.

 

China will eventually become a mega powerful version of Japan.

 

 

Edited March 21, 2021 by Ranvir

[rangeelaraja]

4 hours ago, Ranvir said:

No they have a great future. They have great economical development and also the military firepower to make sure no one messes with them. They also don't get involved in needless wars throughout the world like the whites (USA, Britain, Russia, France) do.

 

It's just jealous Indians who are hoping for their downfall, which will never come. But hey India is the Number Vun democracy in the vorld. 

 

As soon as all of China's population is educated and they all have living standards comparable to Japan and South Korea they will have democracy. Indians haven't been able to handle democracy and even 70 years later they still cannot.

 

The amount of progress China have made is staggering. While the likes of Shashi Tharoor keep on going about how the British ruined India, China have kept their head down and soared ahead in just 30 years.

 

China pays for their top students to go to Oxford and Harvard, providing they come back and help develop the country. India's talent goes to America and boosts the economy of America. That is the difference.

 

Look at the Dalai Lama, all the western governments used to suck up to him and give him a big platform to say negative things about China. Now he is forbidden to speak in many places out of locap fear of ruining relationships with China.

 

China will eventually become a mega powerful version of Japan.

 

 

 

 

Obviously you are stupidly ignorant about history, economics and finance. No one is talking about the history of their development - it is about their future. 

 

China is sitting on a debt bomb ( largely bad debt ) that is 2 times the size of their economy.

 

China has prospered ONLY and ONLY because of Western largesse - largely American. Americans in the 70's and 80's thought moving jobs and technology  to China will help 

the west break the communist block between USSR and China, but it ended up building a Frankenstein. 

 

Obviously you don't hold Indian citizenship anymore.  No sane person can agree with a rogue country like China which considers someone like Dalai Lama a terrorist and hardcore terrorist like Hafeez Saeed a "religious scholar" .

 

There cannot be any jealousy but only utter hatred for a rogue country like China  - that inflicted the world with a deadly pandemic like corona. 

Inspite of all the good you spoke about them, I bet you shamelessly live in a Western country and would never consider settling down in  filth like China.

 

So truthful are fact, figures and numbers coming from  China that - idiots like you may buy the fact that China officially claims that no one has died of covid in their country for an entire year, while the super developed western countries are picking up body bags by the 100s.

 

So " good/smart/developed" is China that despite being the originator of Covid and having many more resources at their disposal, India was able to build a 2 home grown 

vaccines --  Covishield and Covaxin. -- which are  FARR better than Chinese vaccines. India is not forcing these vaccines on peoples throat like China is for profits. 

Countries are queuing up for India's vaccine  because of the efficacy and India has donated/granted for free millions of vaccines.

 

This shows only a glimpse of the capability of India.

 

You may also be ignorant about the fact that NO AUTHORITARIAN country  in history has ever crossed the middle income category.

 

The amount of Western  IP theft that China has backed is worth trillions of dollars of IP value.

 

30 years is a long time. If one could not have imagined in 1990 how different the world would be in 2020. It would only be foolish to assume that China's free ride 

driven on IP theft, economic coersion and acts of a rogue country will not have disastrous consequences for it.

 

You only have to look at what happened to USSR - that was a monster for 30 years and see the state of Russia now.

 

[G_B_]

Truth is china have re written every rule book there is ( based on western thought). I feel predictions of their demise are greatly exaggerated. 

 

They will be the world largest gdp.

 

Militarily usa will still be no 1.

 

I do think the no. 1 chinese priority is self sufficiency. I am keen to see if they can avhieve that.

 

 

[rangeelaraja]

40 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

Truth is china have re written every rule book there is ( based on western thought). I feel predictions of their demise are greatly exaggerated. 

 

They will be the world largest gdp.

 

Militarily usa will still be no 1.

 

I do think the no. 1 chinese priority is self sufficiency. I am keen to see if they can avhieve that.

 

 

 

@G_B_   On the contrary predictions of Chinese economy and superpowerdom in the future are extraordinarily exaggerated.

 

People who are ignorant about history often make such exaggerations.

 

Japan at one point in the 80's was about 85 % of US GDP with less than 50 % of US population. Pundits thought Japan is going to be the world's #1 economy soon.

 

Real estate worth of Tokyo was valued to be more than the  real estate worth of the entire state of California.

 

Japan since then shrunk and shrunk and it's GDP now is what it was in the 90's. Today Japan's GDP is 1/4 of US.

 

People think that Chinese and CCP are omniscient and omnipotent which is so idiotic and laughable. 

 

Chinese debt bubble is so disastrously bad ( mostly to fund State owned enterprises ) only someone working in Finance and Banking would know this. 

 

Here is a statement from China's # 2 powerful person, the Chinese premier.

 

https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/china-has-over-600-million-poor-with-140-monthly-income-premier-li-keqiang-6024341.htm

 

More than 40 % of Chinese earn less than $140/ month. 

 

So much for being a super-power that can challenge the US.

 

China benefited tremendously with the 1 child policy - right now they are faced with a shrinking work force - median age of a Chinese is more than that of a super developed country like US whereas the per capita GDP is less than 1/6 that of the US.

 

China has benefitted from being authoritarian, has already started facing grace negative consequences of it.

 

Nothing bigger than the failed  massive BRI and sunk investments. Obviously the CCP can never admit their failures - that would be anti-communist to do so.

 

I ask a simple question - how come China's billions and billions of dollars investment in science tech and R&D prove so effing useless that inspite having the most knowledge about covid- they ended up producing the shittist vaccine ? In the end it was still the US companies - Pfizer, Moderna and J&J that ended up producing the best vaccines. 

 

Even India produced  2 world class home grown vaccines Covishield and Covaxine that it is shipping to the world including to super developed countries like Canada.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jimmy Cliff]

 

 

A video I recommend on the "scripted" rise of China and how the Globalist elite facilitated it. If people think CCP just woke up one fine day and decided to dominate the world they've no idea what's going on .

[rangeelaraja]

I am a mid-80's born  - I remember clearly and vividly - how USSR and Japan were deemed infallible military and economic superpowers respectively growing up.

 

They have been consigned to the dustbin of history as far as "great power" is concerned.

 

Never ever, ever, ever bet against America.

Edited March 21, 2021 by rangeelaraja

[BacktoCricaddict]

36 minutes ago, rangeelaraja said:

home grown vaccines Covishield

Just one slight quibble - Covishield is an Astra-Zeneca/Oxford Univ product licensed to SII for manufacturing only.  Covaxin - you are right - is homegrown.  

 

I don't know enough about any of the other facts and ideas presented to comment.  Am just reading, absorbing and trying make sense of it all.  Economics and politics are interesting, but I have a hard time grasping them well.  

[Khota]

1 hour ago, rangeelaraja said:

 

@G_B_   On the contrary predictions of Chinese economy and superpowerdom in the future are extraordinarily exaggerated.

 

People who are ignorant about history often make such exaggerations.

 

Japan at one point in the 80's was about 85 % of US GDP with less than 50 % of US population. Pundits thought Japan is going to be the world's #1 economy soon.

 

Real estate worth of Tokyo was valued to be more than the  real estate worth of the entire state of California.

 

Japan since then shrunk and shrunk and it's GDP now is what it was in the 90's. Today Japan's GDP is 1/4 of US.

 

People think that Chinese and CCP are omniscient and omnipotent which is so idiotic and laughable. 

 

Chinese debt bubble is so disastrously bad ( mostly to fund State owned enterprises ) only someone working in Finance and Banking would know this. 

 

Here is a statement from China's # 2 powerful person, the Chinese premier.

 

https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/china-has-over-600-million-poor-with-140-monthly-income-premier-li-keqiang-6024341.htm

 

More than 40 % of Chinese earn less than $140/ month. 

 

So much for being a super-power that can challenge the US.

 

China benefited tremendously with the 1 child policy - right now they are faced with a shrinking work force - median age of a Chinese is more than that of a super developed country like US whereas the per capita GDP is less than 1/6 that of the US.

 

China has benefitted from being authoritarian, has already started facing grace negative consequences of it.

 

Nothing bigger than the failed  massive BRI and sunk investments. Obviously the CCP can never admit their failures - that would be anti-communist to do so.

 

I ask a simple question - how come China's billions and billions of dollars investment in science tech and R&D prove so effing useless that inspite having the most knowledge about covid- they ended up producing the shittist vaccine ? In the end it was still the US companies - Pfizer, Moderna and J&J that ended up producing the best vaccines. 

 

Even India produced  2 world class home grown vaccines Covishield and Covaxine that it is shipping to the world including to super developed countries like Canada.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jackass go check who has produced the most vaccine so far? There efficacy is still 70%.

 

Moderna and Pfizer are mRNA based which only USA and Europe can handle. Chinese vaccine is at about the same level as lot of others.

 

Only fools will underestimate China.

[Khota]

2 hours ago, G_B_ said:

Truth is china have re written every rule book there is ( based on western thought). I feel predictions of their demise are greatly exaggerated. 

 

They will be the world largest gdp.

 

Militarily usa will still be no 1.

 

I do think the no. 1 chinese priority is self sufficiency. I am keen to see if they can avhieve that.

 

 

Except for critical semiconductor technology they are almost there.

[mishra]

2 hours ago, G_B_ said:

Truth is china have re written every rule book there is ( based on western thought). I feel predictions of their demise are greatly exaggerated. 

 

They will be the world largest gdp.

 

Militarily usa will still be no 1.

 

I do think the no. 1 chinese priority is self sufficiency. I am keen to see if they can avhieve that.

 

 

Which are do u think they aren’t self sufficient apart from raw materials?

 

Economy, military arsenal, nothing is useful unless you can use international organisation like UN, unhrc, unesco, who, world bank and so on. Covid has mde this job lot difficult for China.
 

What is unknown is Can a modern day Imperialist china let go off its pride and accept its neighbours like Russia, US, Korea, japan, India , because what it really lacks is long term  assured frnds. It hasn’t got any and I cant find it getting any with opportunities. Risk of ecomies ganging up against China is very immediate and high

[rangeelaraja]

21 minutes ago, Khota said:

Jackass go check who has produced the most vaccine so far? There efficacy is still 70%.

 

Moderna and Pfizer are mRNA based which only USA and Europe can handle. Chinese vaccine is at about the same level as lot of others.

 

Only fools will underestimate China.

 

@Khota  BC , I know you have your head buried too deeply in China's buth0lee in search of chowmein that you don't see facts and reality.

 

Here you go biatch..https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-55748124

 

India's home grown vaccine efficiency is 81 % reported by neutral sources. China's is closer to 50 %.

 

India has kicked China's backside even in terms of cranking up more vaccines

 

Read facts like this not Chinese propaganda you Chinese pimp . India sends vaccine to over 70 countries.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/india-beats-china-at-its-own-game-in-vaccine-diplomacy-battle

 

Quote

So far, New Delhi has managed to ship nearly 6.8 million free vaccines around the world. China has pledged around 3.9 million, according to publicly available information compiled by Bloomberg, some of which have yet to arrive.

 

 

it is people like you who divide India and put self doubt while sucking upto filth .

 

Only fools and pimps like you suck up to a rogue bastard regime like China

 

Edited March 21, 2021 by rangeelaraja

[G_B_]

30 years is a long way away. I agree with some points made. Ussr was seen to be unbeatable as a military. Japan was an economic miracle.  Both fell away. Not discouting those points.

 

At the same time india was seen as a basket case to be balkanised.  If you would have said a centrally planned economy would rise rapidly in the 80s most people would have laughed. 

 

I am reminded of Tolstoy.  Western novels had an introduction middle and ending. When they read the works of Tolstoy many said this type of writing was not a novel. Tolstoy said your right this is Not a western styled novel. This is my way to tell a story. 

 

 

 

Re self sufficient. I think oil remains their Achilles heel. They are at the forefront of electrification.

 

 

 

 

 

[chewy]

In China, the state owns all land. Everyone leases from the state.

 

With mixture of heady capitalism and total ownership of land, they can really accelerate development agendas and dont have to deal with pesky environemental campaigners and farmers, and if they face hint of these anti-growth protestors they are dealth with an iron fist. 

 

In India, on the other hand we are bickering over Muslim's right to pee in a Temple to subsidising landlords sat in Canada.

[rangeelaraja]

5 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

30 years is a long way away. I agree with some points made. Ussr was seen to be unbeatable as a military. Japan was an economic miracle.  Both fell away. Not discouting those points.

 

At the same time india was seen as a basket case to be balkanised.  If you would have said a centrally planned economy would rise rapidly in the 80s most people would have laughed. 

 

I am reminded of Tolstoy.  Western novels had an introduction middle and ending. When they read the works of Tolstoy many said this type of writing was not a novel. Tolstoy said your right this is Not a western styled novel. This is my way to tell a story. 

 

 

 

Re self sufficient. I think oil remains their Achilles heel. They are at the forefront of electrification.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are lot many achilles heels. Unfortunately there are too many ignorant dumb a$$es on ICF  who worship China but who do not understand an iota of economics 

 

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3084979/china-debt-how-big-it-who-owns-it-and-what-next

 

The growth of China's debt is unsustainable -without which the economy cannot register a postive GDP growth. Compare the growth of the debt to growth in GDP - it is simply unsustainable. 

 

Quote

How has China’s debt level changed? 

China’s domestic debt has been growing at an average annual rate of around 20 per cent since 2008, faster than its gross domestic product (GDP) growth. In a bid to counter the impact of the global financial crisis, Beijing unleashed a 4 trillion yuan (US$586 billion) stimulus package in 2008 to boost its economy, which led to a surge in borrowing by local governments and state-owned firms.

 

 

 

Quote

• The Institute of International Finance (IIF) estimated that China’s total domestic debt rose to 335 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020

 

 

Bottomline:  China is sitting on a debt bomb which will devastate it's economy sooner rather than later. As a communist country - they can delay, lie, fudge etc...for much longer. The later it happens - the worse the economic disaster is going to be.

 

All this military posturing and thuggery is just setting the stage to deflect attention of their domestic audience from an impending economic collapse.

[Khota]

1 hour ago, rangeelaraja said:

 

@Khota  BC , I know you have your head buried too deeply in China's buth0lee in search of chowmein that you don't see facts and reality.

 

Here you go biatch..https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-55748124

 

India's home grown vaccine efficiency is 81 % reported by neutral sources. China's is closer to 50 %.

 

India has kicked China's backside even in terms of cranking up more vaccines

 

Read facts like this not Chinese propaganda you Chinese pimp . India sends vaccine to over 70 countries.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/india-beats-china-at-its-own-game-in-vaccine-diplomacy-battle

 

 

it is people like you who divide India and put self doubt while sucking upto filth .

 

Only fools and pimps like you suck up to a rogue bastard regime like China

 

Here is the data:

 

 

 

Go check for vaccine produced. India has the potential but the babu raj is hurting India.

[Khota]

And Sinovac is around 80% effective after two doses. I do know India is ahead of China i pharmaceuticals but most of the active ingredients come to India from China.