How do you see the future of China in the next 3 decades ?

[PunterLog]

2 minutes ago, mishra said:

^ @PunterLog Were you in mainland China or place like Hongkong. One of my relatives,who is retired now and used to meet top bosses of certain heavy machine manufacturing company, said that his counterpart in China( a good friend of his now) , he found him scared and he  said to sush when he bought a question around Governance in China on a informal dinner table

 

I was in mainland China. I don't want to give explicit details as I still have certain connections with that country due to nature of my work.

 

The bolded part is true. All I'll say is, even top officials disappear overnight if they express dissatisfaction about the CCP and it's working. Plenty of top CCP offcials are involved in massive corruption and they use it to purchase properties in Canada, Australia etc. US used to be the destination for all the corrupt CCP money but US Feds tightened the screws in the recent years.

 

The citizens are literally slaves. It's so *ed up that if a Chinese citizen outside China ever criticizes CCP, his family in China will be threatened. CCP is the biggest cartel on the planet. Citizens take the suffering as the economic condition has improved.

 

I'll give you an example regarding the Galwan clash. One guy on Weibo said that the PLA soldiers deserved to die as they went looking for trouble and he congratulated India. The police took the parents of the guy into custody and only let them go after the guy surrendered. Can you imagine arresting the parents of the guy who made a comment on social media criticizing PLA?

 

Can you imagine the horror that would happen in India if the government arrested Disha Ravi's parents for her role in the toolkit? It's so *ed up.

 

[Khota]

3 hours ago, Mariyam said:

Many nations of the Middle East have switched over from Sinovac to the Oxford/Astra Zeneca/SII vaccine. The UAE, I think, totally stopped using the Sinovac.

 

Developing APIs is a slow process. Has a fair bit of R&D involved. Indian government has pounced on this chance. They are offering huge subsidies/tax breaks/ even loans to those who want to set up units to manufacture and formulate the original molecules. Currently, India mainly focuses on using ready made API and converting it into tablets/syrups/injections. 70%+ of our active ingredients are imported.

 

Fault this government for all you want, but this is an area where they have shown foresight and have a plan in mind.

Astra Zeneca is a solid vaccine but Europeans dont trust it for some reason (blood clots maybe). The advise is take any thatyou can get.

 

Getting back to API china had no pharmaceutical industry and they took help from India. Now they supply India with majority of API.

 

Same is going on in electronics. They are  years ahead in heavy machinery and electronics and now they have stepped up R&D.

 

Once again no one can deny India still cannot design its own TV set after decades and I am not aware of one decent IC engine designed in India.

 

In India engineering is mostly cntrl C + cntrl V.

[Clarke]

4 hours ago, Mariyam said:

 

The truth is that most of us (me definitely) do not know enough about China. Its society. Its laws. Its administration. Its people and their aspirations. Most of us can't name 10 Chinese people. Or would struggle to. How are we to predict what is to become of China in 30 years?

 

 

 

 

Who knows how anyone/anything will be in 30 years ? Maybe you'll be a bollywood megastar, some others here will be billionaires & I'll still be a forum troll. Maybe we'll be living in a developed India or as mutated freaks in a post nuclear war wasteland of a subcontinent or a colony on moon/mars. It's all a mental exercise.

Edited March 23, 2021 by Clarke

[kepler37b]

I see a very bright future for china. I can summarize the advantages of that society

 

1. A uni-culture society. 
2. A culture that emphasizes hard work.
3. Racial belonging among it's citizens. 
4. Excellent human resources. 

Any one expecting India to compete with China is deluded. They are far ahead in every metric.

 

In the next 30 years, I expect all the western democracies to collapse under financial mismanagement and uncontrolled immigration. China will be the most powerful nation/civilization.

Edited March 23, 2021 by kepler37b

[kepler37b]

3 hours ago, PunterLog said:

 

 

 

The citizens are literally slaves. It's so *ed up that if a Chinese citizen outside China ever criticizes CCP, his family in China will be threatened. CCP is the biggest cartel on the planet. Citizens take the suffering as the economic condition has improved.

 

 

 

 

Difference of perspectives I would say. They value harmony and stability over freedom and chaos.  We value freedom and chaos.  I believe hindus are making the same mistake as westerners in the case of china. 

[kepler37b]

4 hours ago, PunterLog said:

 

 

 

1) If the West stops relying on China for it's supply chains and manufacturing and tries to financially cripple the country, the faultlines will start showing up more and it'll become difficult for the CCP to control the massive population.

 

 

 

Interested to know what those fault lines are. In my book it's NOT CCP that is holding the country together. It's the sense of belonging among the race of people who consider themselves "Han".

 

 

[Mariyam]

2 hours ago, Khota said:

Astra Zeneca is a solid vaccine but Europeans dont trust it for some reason (blood clots maybe). The advise is take any thatyou can get.

 

Getting back to API china had no pharmaceutical industry and they took help from India. Now they supply India with majority of API.

 

Same is going on in electronics. They are  years ahead in heavy machinery and electronics and now they have stepped up R&D.

 

Once again no one can deny India still cannot design its own TV set after decades and I am not aware of one decent IC engine designed in India.

 

In India engineering is mostly cntrl C + cntrl V.

Both my parents got the Covidshield vaccine.

 

No denying your general point that we are currently the sweatshop of the world when it comes to manufacturing pharmaceuticals. But there have been a lot of innovative medicines due to Indian ingenuity and need. Especially in the field of animal/snake/insect bites.

Most of the bigger Indian players are working backwards to manufacture and patent their own APIs and processes. In a few years they and their shareholders will see the dividends.

 

I don't attach too much importance to making TVs and the like. The USSR made all kinds of advanced stuff for that era. From tanks to spaceships to analog chess clocks to tractors. (My grand uncle gifted me one! A chess clock ie) Yet the nation imploded. I'm not saying that Chinese are close to an implosion, but what relevance does manufacturing feat ( if it can be called that) have with this discussion?

Edited March 23, 2021 by Mariyam

[mishra]

1 hour ago, kepler37b said:

I see a very bright future for china. I can summarize the advantages of that society

 

1. A uni-culture society. 
2. A culture that emphasizes hard work.
3. Racial belonging among it's citizens. 
4. Excellent human resources. 

Any one expecting India to compete with China is deluded. They are far ahead in every metric.

 

In the next 30 years, I expect all the western democracies to collapse under financial mismanagement and uncontrolled immigration. China will be the most powerful nation/civilization.

Nothing will happen to west which is ruling the world for last 500 years atleast. China was used as source of cheap labour, cut inflation and environmental disaster which west faced after Industrializatin. Anyone thinking otherwise probably has no understanding what world order meant post world war 2. Unless China goes for world war III and wins it, west will continue with current world order. What west will now do is in next 10 years, it will squeeze China economically with sanctions and build alternative manufacturing production line in few other nations.

 

China is where it is because of West and same hand which fed China is now coming after it.

[Mariyam]

3 hours ago, Clarke said:

 

Who knows how anyone/anything will be in 30 years ? Maybe you'll be a bollywood megastar, some others here will be billionaires & I'll still be a forum troll. Maybe we'll be living in a developed India or as mutated freaks in a post nuclear war wasteland of a subcontinent or a colony on moon/mars. It's all a mental exercise.

 dukhti rag 

That ship has long sailed...

[Clarke]

10 minutes ago, Mariyam said:

 dukhti rag 

That ship has long sailed...

Bolly will need its Streep/Mirren equivalents 

[mishra]

16 minutes ago, Mariyam said:

 dukhti rag 

That ship has long sailed...

director ban jaavo 

[Khota]

3 hours ago, Mariyam said:

Both my parents got the Covidshield vaccine.

 

No denying your general point that we are currently the sweatshop of the world when it comes to manufacturing pharmaceuticals. But there have been a lot of innovative medicines due to Indian ingenuity and need. Especially in the field of animal/snake/insect bites.

Most of the bigger Indian players are working backwards to manufacture and patent their own APIs and processes. In a few years they and their shareholders will see the dividends.

 

I don't attach too much importance to making TVs and the like. The USSR made all kinds of advanced stuff for that era. From tanks to spaceships to analog chess clocks to tractors. (My grand uncle gifted me one! A chess clock ie) Yet the nation imploded. I'm not saying that Chinese are close to an implosion, but what relevance does manufacturing feat ( if it can be called that) have with this discussion?

The answer is everything. Russian economy was always a small economy and hence no threat to US. Along with their expenses they could not sustain it and hence they imploded.

 

Chinese economy on the other hand is the largest on earth (PPP) and still going strong. They are a real threat to india and rest of the world. 

 

Every war that is fought is done so on basis of your manufacturing capacity.

 

Go look at WW II. It was German economic base against allied economy. US could manufacture 100's of Aircraft per month and those things tilted the balance.

 

No one should underestimate China. Dragon is a real threat.

[ravishingravi]

Looking at China as the emerging power in the world, I don’t think India should align with west against China. For all the ills of CCP, it has less complicated world goals. A country like US though would keep undermining you through its institutions. 
 

China will be biggest economy in the world in nominal terms in next 5 years. India should keep both sides of the next Cold War interested and at bay. 

[coffee_rules]

OP is a question for @Global.Baba

[PunterLog]

11 hours ago, kepler37b said:

Difference of perspectives I would say. They value harmony and stability over freedom and chaos.  We value freedom and chaos.  I believe hindus are making the same mistake as westerners in the case of china. 

This part is true. But, it has it's limits. As long as the economic progress of China continues, the Chinese people are more than happy to sacrifice their freedom. If CCP can maintain China's growth for the next 2-3 decades, they'll be invincible for a few centuries. Right now, the CCP should be doing everything to appease the US. I'm actually baffled by their aggressive approach to the US.

 

11 hours ago, kepler37b said:

Interested to know what those fault lines are. In my book it's NOT CCP that is holding the country together. It's the sense of belonging among the race of people who consider themselves "Han".

I might post about the fault lines in the near future. I've posted a lot on some defence forums about those fault lines and I don't want my identity to be linked across various forums.

 

The "Han" thing is extremely overstated. There are massive differences among the Han people living in various regions of China.

 

Quote

Any one expecting India to compete with China is deluded. They are far ahead in every metric.

 

I agree with this.

 

As a society, Indians are used to votebank politics, freebies, caste/religion quotas over merit etc I don't see India overtaking China unless we get rid of democracy. But, too many Indians have this fetish for democracy and any attempt to get rid of it will lead to a civil war.

[rangeelaraja]

12 hours ago, kepler37b said:

I see a very bright future for china. I can summarize the advantages of that society

 

1. A uni-culture society. 
2. A culture that emphasizes hard work.
3. Racial belonging among it's citizens. 
4. Excellent human resources. 

Any one expecting India to compete with China is deluded. They are far ahead in every metric.

 

In the next 30 years, I expect all the western democracies to collapse under financial mismanagement and uncontrolled immigration. China will be the most powerful nation/civilization.

 

Wow, thats some serious stuff you have been smoking.

 

Again, like some ICFers who commented here,  you sound ignorant with a capital I.

 

India & China are 5000 plus year civilizations.  A mere 30 years of ultra fast development does not define a "race" or " society" like you ignorantly put.

 

Since you have "written a book" , and have written China's golden destiny in the decades ahead: 

 

 1) Why don't you explain the impact of the extraordinary debt  of China at 350 % of GDP  and growing at 20 % ( to achieve 4-5 % real GDP growth) . What happens to the growth when the debt is severely restricted as China's own economists have warned of a major impending disastrous economic collapse.

 

2) China forced a 1 child policy that improved house-hold savings dramatically leading to higher savings, which meant higher investment and higher capital accumulation and higher GDP growth.  That 1 child policy ( even after withdrawing it ) has reduced fertility to such an extent that the median age of Chinese is about 39 ( as much a the US ) and growing alarmingly, while its per capita GDP is 1/6th of the US. No nation is with such a media age  or above grows at more than 3 % sustainably because of the number of retireees and you can check any number of sources to prove otherwise.  No forced short cut comes without a price, which people like you don't have the intellect to grasp. 

 

3) As some ICFer here have pointed out - the level of fear and anger amongst local Chinese is extraordinary. 

  If there is such a sense of belonging to "race and culture" as you put it, why is the CCP **** scared to ban google, youtube, twitter and heavy censoring of foreign media outlets ???  That extraordinary censoring is not a sign of a secured "culture and race" as you put it. CCP knows if it lifts the censoring on global connectivity apps, like I mentioned, all hell will break loose.   

 

 

4) The Taiwanese population by % Han is higher than mainland, and they never want to be part of China. So much for "racial unity "

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 24, 2021 by rangeelaraja

[PunterLog]

9 minutes ago, rangeelaraja said:

 

Wow, thats some serious stuff you have been smoking.

 

Again, like some ICFers who commented here,  you sound ignorant with a capital I.

 

At this point, it's obvious that the CCP propaganda has worked pretty well on many people.

 

Take the recent Galwan video CCP released. If you see the video, they portrayed Indian Army as the aggressor. Why do you think the CCP did that? It's because they can't deal with domestic outrage if the actual truth gets out i.e China was the aggressor and then got it's ass kicked. CCP has to fool it's domestic audience all the time. The great firewall CCP uses to block internet should give the world a clue about how scared the CCP is of a free society.

 

The economic growth is the rope binding the various sections of China. If the economic growth stops, the same rope will be the one which will hang the CCP.

[rangeelaraja]

24 minutes ago, PunterLog said:

As a society, Indians are used to votebank politics, freebies, caste/religion quotas over merit etc I don't see India overtaking China unless we get rid of democracy. But, too many Indians have this fetish for democracy and any attempt to get rid of it will lead to a civil war.

 

Its laughable how people think China's free ride and gravy train will continue.

 

Because CCP is unquestionable, there are no checks and balances or no one that can hold them accountable. 

This also makes them liable to make mistakes ( and they have made plenty in the quest for ridiculous growth ). 

 

A great Harvard economics professor said last year on China - for every other country, GDP growth  is an output. 

 

For China, GDP growth is an input ( as in they decide they will grow at 6 %) and to achieve that they will build whatever it takes to achieve that number, even at the cost of extraordinary debt.

 

This is a classic recipe for an asset and debt bubble witness many a times in history, except in the case of China, it is unprecedented and will result in atleast 10 years of economic stagnation or retardation for China. 

 

Every other country caps their credit growth roughly to their projected real GDP growth. China's credit growth is 3-4  times its internal projected GDP growth. 

 

Its an unsustainable disaster waiting to happen.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[rangeelaraja]

7 hours ago, ravishingravi said:

I don’t think India should align with west against China. For all the ills of CCP, it has less complicated world goals. A country like US though would keep undermining you 

 

Yeah very less complicated goals  does CCP have,  just claim and try to physically seize as much land and water as possible be it claiming large swathes of India or Japan or Vietnam or Bhutan or Taiwanese territory. I

 

If that is not sufficient claim the entire South China sea ( imagine US claiming the entire Atlantic Ocean or India claiming the Indian ocean ) 

 

You were right @PunterLog,  either CCP's propaganda has worked or there are too many people like this person in India

 

Edited March 24, 2021 by rangeelaraja

[PunterLog]

7 minutes ago, rangeelaraja said:

 

Yeah very less complicated goals  does CCP have,  just claim and try to physically seize as much land and water as possible be it claiming large swathes of India or Japan or Vietnam or Bhutan or Taiwanese territory. I

 

If that is not sufficient claim the entire South China sea ( imagine US claiming the entire Atlantic Ocean or India claiming the Indian ocean ) 

 

You were right @PunterLog,  either CCP's propaganda has worked or there are too many people like this person in India

 

Too few people in India understand China.

 

Yes, US isn't India's best friend and uses NGO's and western news outlets to **** on India. But, China is a lot worse. A superpower China with it's "Middle Kingdom" view of the world sees India as a vassal and nothing more. If China was in US shoes, China would do 10x worse to India than whatever US has done so far to us.

 

These people don't even understand that China doesn't even have the concept of "allies". Any country that works with China is seen as an inferior nation which must pay tribute to China.