Clarke Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 India’s total fertility rate declines to 2.0: NFHS-5 data https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/indias-total-fertility-rate-declines-to-2-0-nfhs-5-data/articleshow/87892831.cms India's population set to fall as total fertility rate drops below replacement level; sex ratio improves further https://www.timesnownews.com/mirror-now/in-focus/article/indias-population-set-to-fall-as-total-fertility-rate-drops-below-replacement-level/835016 https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/indias-fertility-rate-drops-below-2-1-population-stabilising-nfhs-data-101637751803433.html https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/for-first-time-indias-fertility-rate-below-replacement-level/articleshow/87899133.cms https://indianexpress.com/article/india/fertility-rate-falls-to-below-replacement-level-signals-population-is-stabilising-7639986/ Maybe this kind of news qualifies as achche din Alam_dar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Singh bling Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Clarke said: First 1 hour ago, Clarke said: Maybe this kind of news qualifies as achche din First tell religious stats of tfr o/w it's extremely bure din for most if tfr is low for Hindu's and high for muslims Clarke 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarke Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 39 minutes ago, Singh bling said: First tell religious stats of tfr o/w it's extremely bure din for most if tfr is low for Hindu's and high for muslims I'm happy if the survey reflects ground reality on TFR, such an improvement over the years would have required some major mindset changes across regions & communities. Mariyam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mariyam Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Singh bling said: First tell religious stats of tfr o/w it's extremely bure din for most if tfr is low for Hindu's and high for muslims This is a survey whose results are extrapolated. Not the census of India. Perhaps wait for the census to conduct a count and publish findings before writing the epitaph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 (edited) There was a Lancet report in 2020 I remember which said 1. World population will peak in 206x at 9.7 billion, then down to 8.6 billion (??) in 2100 2. When females get educated, tfr goes to 1.4 children per female. 3. Indian population peaks at 1.6 billion in 2046... 4. Current population 7.7 billion...2 billion increase to 9.7 b is entirely sub Saharan Africa... population goes from 1 billion currently to 3 billion in 206x In my opinion, working age(15-64) population is an important thing to track... working age population shrinking is precursor to population shrinking....also working age population growth is linked to economic growth and shrinkage to depression.. working age population has already started to shrink in USA Europe china... now people will just get older (65+)and die and not equal number of babies will be born to replace the. Edited November 25, 2021 by randomGuy BacktoCricaddict 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, randomGuy said: working age population has already started to shrink in USA Europe china... now people will just get older (65+)and die and not equal number of babies will be born to replace the World population in 1960 was around 3B. Soon it will be 8B. The population keep getting larger and so does its “replacements”. Vilander 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, zen said: World population in 1960 was around 3B. Soon it will be 8B. The population keep getting larger and so does its “replacements”. I spend some of my time thinking about markets and asset prices (bitcoin/gold etc) ...in my opinion, govt primarily prints money (through central banks) to support the job market... when population is shrinking, they won't need to provide employment and so, less need to print dollars...if the dollar supply reduces and the number of Bitcoins (or amount of gold) is constant, the price of Bitcoins (or gold) in terms of dollars goes down....so, I think prices of assets like Bitcoins and gold will go down in long term... Edited November 25, 2021 by randomGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, randomGuy said: I spend some of my time thinking about markets and asset prices (bitcoin/gold etc) ...in my opinion, govt primarily prints money (through central banks) to support the job market... when population is shrinking, they won't need to provide employment and so, less need to print dollars...if the dollar supply reduces and the number of Bitcoins (or amount of gold) is constant, the price of Bitcoins (or gold) in terms of dollars goes down....so, I think prices of assets like Bitcoins and gold will go down in long term... There is one assumption you made there. Wages won't be constant. Wages could possibly increase to accommodate higher cost of living. So less jobs but same cost perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarke Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-has-more-women-than-men-for-the-first-time-on-record-11637844405301.html Unbelievable that this happened so soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 25 minutes ago, ravishingravi said: There is one assumption you made there. Wages won't be constant. Wages could possibly increase to accommodate higher cost of living. So less jobs but same cost perhaps. Inflation adjusted wages are nearly constant in USA in 20-30 years I think... a)inflation is an unwanted by-product of money printing, b)employment generation is the desired consequence When population is decreasing, there no need to invite inflation by further money printing to create jobs because you don't need to 'create' jobs as there already are enough jobs for smaller younger population (also, bigger older population don't need jobs either, they just need to be looked after) dial_100 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, Clarke said: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-has-more-women-than-men-for-the-first-time-on-record-11637844405301.html Unbelievable that this happened so soon Gender ratio in Haryana and Punjab in 0-20 age group is horrendous... older women are more in number than older men because men die early...so , not much to be read here imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravishingravi Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 Very interesting development. So, population control bill might be redundant. I think with growing GDP and reducing population, this augurs well for our future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Singh bling Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 22 hours ago, Clarke said: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-has-more-women-than-men-for-the-first-time-on-record-11637844405301.html Unbelievable that this happened so soon It's not a good news but a matter of concern https://www.statista.com/statistics/976090/adult-mortality-rate-in-india-by-gender/ Mortality rate of women is 141 per thousand while for men it is 201 per 1000. . Many more men are dying than women. CSR is still very much skewed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chakdephatte Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 (edited) On 11/25/2021 at 11:07 PM, Clarke said: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-has-more-women-than-men-for-the-first-time-on-record-11637844405301.html Unbelievable that this happened so soon 973 in 2011. Needed 27 for breakeven. Sounds believable. Edited November 26, 2021 by Chakdephatte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilander Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 On 11/25/2021 at 5:06 AM, Mariyam said: This is a survey whose results are extrapolated. Not the census of India. Perhaps wait for the census to conduct a count and publish findings before writing the epitaph! I think rest of religions are below replacement rate and Muslims around 3 or 4, not sure why Muslims have trouble controlling population this can spell disaster for third world countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cowboysfan Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 great news.Education is the best way to have sustainable families and avoid Child hunger .this also has interesting political implications with regards to LS seats. Mariyam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mariyam Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 6 hours ago, Vilander said: I think rest of religions are below replacement rate and Muslims around 3 or 4, not sure why Muslims have trouble controlling population this can spell disaster for third world countries. Not the case: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/sharp-decline-in-fertility-rate-among-muslims-study-101632373241284.html dial_100 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beetle Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 (edited) 22 hours ago, Singh bling said: It's not a good news but a matter of concern https://www.statista.com/statistics/976090/adult-mortality-rate-in-india-by-gender/ Mortality rate of women is 141 per thousand while for men it is 201 per 1000. . Many more men are dying than women. CSR is still very much skewed. Despite all odds due to traditional discrimination ,less medical care, women are protected by nature( hormones) during reproductive years unlike men . https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110811181716.htm Women in rural areas also get less food compared to men .Considering that Indian food is carbohydrate rich, they probably get less exposed to lifestyle diseases. This is just my assumption. Edited November 27, 2021 by beetle dial_100 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Singh bling Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 4 hours ago, beetle said: Despite all odds due to traditional discrimination ,less medical care, women are protected by nature( hormones) during reproductive years unlike men . Women in rural areas also get less food compared to men .Considering that Indian food is carbohydrate rich, they probably get less exposed to lifestyle diseases. This is just my assumption. In 1960 Females had higher mortality than males . Mortality of both genders improved from that time but it improved massively for women and their mortality is now much less than. It shows that situation has improved massively for women https://knoema.com/atlas/India/topics/Health/Health-Status/Female-adult-mortality-rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vickydev Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 Even though its just a sample but if its well representative of the population, then comparing with previous years, NFHS-5 metrics indicating higher financial independence for women, better sanitation facilities and electricity and mobile coverage are real positives. beetle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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