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National Family Health Survey-5: Fertility rate falls to below replacement level


Clarke

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39 minutes ago, Singh bling said:

 

First tell religious stats of tfr o/w it's extremely bure din for most if tfr is low for Hindu's and high for muslims

 

I'm happy if the survey reflects ground reality on TFR, such an improvement over the years would have required some major mindset changes across regions & communities.

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1 hour ago, Singh bling said:

 

First tell religious stats of tfr o/w it's extremely bure din for most if tfr is low for Hindu's and high for muslims

This is a survey whose results are extrapolated. Not the census of India.

 

Perhaps wait for the census to conduct a count and publish findings before writing the epitaph!

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There was a Lancet report in 2020 I remember which said

1. World population will peak in 206x at 9.7 billion, then down to 8.6 billion (??) in 2100

2. When females get educated, tfr goes to 1.4 children per female.

3. Indian population peaks at 1.6 billion in 2046...

4. Current population 7.7 billion...2 billion increase to 9.7 b is entirely sub Saharan Africa... population goes from 1 billion currently to 3 billion in 206x

 

In my opinion, working age(15-64) population is an important thing to track... working age population shrinking is precursor to population shrinking....also working age population growth is linked to economic growth and shrinkage to depression.. working age population has already started to shrink in USA Europe china... now people will just get older (65+)and die and not equal number of babies will be born to replace the.

 

Edited by randomGuy
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1 hour ago, randomGuy said:

working age population has already started to shrink in USA Europe china... now people will just get older (65+)and die and not equal number of babies will be born to replace the


World population in 1960 was around 3B. Soon it will be 8B. 
 

The population keep getting larger and so does its “replacements”. 
 

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2 hours ago, zen said:


World population in 1960 was around 3B. Soon it will be 8B. 
 

The population keep getting larger and so does its “replacements”. 
 

I spend some of my time thinking about markets and asset prices (bitcoin/gold etc) ...in my opinion, govt primarily prints money (through central banks) to support the job market... when population is shrinking, they won't need to provide employment and so, less need to print dollars...if the dollar supply reduces and the number of Bitcoins (or amount of gold) is constant, the price of Bitcoins (or gold) in terms of dollars goes down....so, I think prices of assets like Bitcoins and gold will go down in long term...

Edited by randomGuy
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1 hour ago, randomGuy said:

I spend some of my time thinking about markets and asset prices (bitcoin/gold etc) ...in my opinion, govt primarily prints money (through central banks) to support the job market... when population is shrinking, they won't need to provide employment and so, less need to print dollars...if the dollar supply reduces and the number of Bitcoins (or amount of gold) is constant, the price of Bitcoins (or gold) in terms of dollars goes down....so, I think prices of assets like Bitcoins and gold will go down in long term...

 

There is one assumption you made there. Wages won't be constant. Wages could possibly increase to accommodate higher cost of living. So less jobs but same cost perhaps. 

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25 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

 

There is one assumption you made there. Wages won't be constant. Wages could possibly increase to accommodate higher cost of living. So less jobs but same cost perhaps. 

Inflation adjusted wages are nearly constant in USA in 20-30 years I think...

a)inflation is an unwanted by-product of money printing,

b)employment generation is the desired consequence 

 

When population is decreasing, there no need to invite inflation by further money printing to create jobs because you don't need to 'create' jobs as there already are enough jobs for smaller younger population (also, bigger older population don't need jobs either, they just need to be looked after)

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6 minutes ago, Clarke said:

Gender ratio in Haryana and Punjab in 0-20 age group is horrendous... older women are more in number than older men because men die early...so , not much to be read here imo

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22 hours ago, Clarke said:

It's not a good news but a matter of concern

https://www.statista.com/statistics/976090/adult-mortality-rate-in-india-by-gender/

 

Mortality rate of women is 141 per thousand while for men it is 201 per 1000. . Many more men are dying than women. CSR is still very much skewed.

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On 11/25/2021 at 5:06 AM, Mariyam said:

This is a survey whose results are extrapolated. Not the census of India.

 

Perhaps wait for the census to conduct a count and publish findings before writing the epitaph!

 

 

I think rest of religions are below replacement rate and Muslims around 3 or 4, not sure why Muslims have trouble controlling population this can spell disaster for third world countries. 

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6 hours ago, Vilander said:

 

 

I think rest of religions are below replacement rate and Muslims around 3 or 4, not sure why Muslims have trouble controlling population this can spell disaster for third world countries. 

Not the case:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/sharp-decline-in-fertility-rate-among-muslims-study-101632373241284.html

 

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22 hours ago, Singh bling said:

It's not a good news but a matter of concern

https://www.statista.com/statistics/976090/adult-mortality-rate-in-india-by-gender/

 

Mortality rate of women is 141 per thousand while for men it is 201 per 1000. . Many more men are dying than women. CSR is still very much skewed.

Despite all odds due to traditional  discrimination ,less medical care, women are protected by nature( hormones) during reproductive years unlike men . 

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110811181716.htm

 

Women in rural areas also get less food  compared to men .Considering that Indian food is carbohydrate rich, they probably get less exposed to lifestyle diseases. This is just my assumption.

Edited by beetle
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4 hours ago, beetle said:

Despite all odds due to traditional  discrimination ,less medical care, women are protected by nature( hormones) during reproductive years unlike men . 

 

Women in rural areas also get less food  compared to men .Considering that Indian food is carbohydrate rich, they probably get less exposed to lifestyle diseases. This is just my assumption.

In 1960 Females had higher mortality than males . Mortality of both genders improved from that time but it improved massively for women and their mortality  is now much less than. It shows that situation has improved massively for women

https://knoema.com/atlas/India/topics/Health/Health-Status/Female-adult-mortality-rate

 

 

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