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Will AAP replace Congress as main opposition in next 10-15 years?

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They are already 4th in terms of number of MLAs with govt in 2 states and looking to expand further.

 

MLAs by party affiliation[edit]

  Party MLAs
1   Bharatiya Janata Party 1379
2   Indian National Congress 690
3   All India Trinamool Congress 233
4   Aam Aadmi Party 156
5   YSR Congress Party 150
6   Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 139
7   Biju Janata Dal 114
8   Samajwadi Party 114
9   Telangana Rashtra Samithi 103
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It is possible. If AAP can fight all the challenges during it's tenure from corrupt Badals & Congress & work towards the betterment of Punjab, it will then surely win in few other states like H P & Haryana. I feel that AAP should focus on their work & removal of corruption.....that will be it's success Mantra. 

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I see Congress losing its foothold in frontier states.   AAP will be major in Punjab Himachal J&K in immediate future.  These states have great HDI's living standards wise but are plagued with corruption.  They fit right into playbook of AAP politics. 

AAP will continue to grow but replacing Congress in whole country is a bit far fetched as of now.  Congress will be back eventually. 

Edited by Lone Wolf
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Whatever one think of Kejriwal. The man knows his politics. He is playing it beautifully. In 2029, he will emerge as front runner for PM. And without Gandhi Nehru baggage, this will be a tough challenge. He can consolidate the famous Muslim votes and anti BJP votes to build a solid response. 

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12 hours ago, Under_Score said:

It is possible. If AAP can fight all the challenges during it's tenure from corrupt Badals & Congress & work towards the betterment of Punjab, it will then surely win in few other states like H P & Haryana. I feel that AAP should focus on their work & removal of corruption.....that will be it's success Mantra. 

Our corruption has very deep roots. Right into our cultural values.

 

A single party cam never do it.

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1 hour ago, kepler37b said:

Our corruption has very deep roots. Right into our cultural values.

 

A single party cam never do it.

Delhi is still very corrupt even after 8 yrs of AAP. Not sure what they have done towards that to claim they will root out corruption in Punjab. In fact they claimed they will close down all mafias within 1 month. 

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Don't know about the distant future but AAP will surely boost the BJP in the short run by cutting into Congress votes, both in state and LS elections. 

 

If you look at vote % of every election since 2014, BJP is either growing or have retained their voters. Paties like AAP, TMC, SP, etc are growing at the expense of Congress, not BJP. Only Cong can beat BJP at the national level. AAP has a very long way to go. 

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On 4/2/2022 at 10:08 AM, kepler37b said:

Our corruption has very deep roots. Right into our cultural values.

 

A single party cam never do it.

Sad part is....uneducated corrupt party leaders punishing highly educated public servant for being unbiased......and educated people who support the party turn a blind eye to it....what Democracy is this....sigh

 

 

Edited by Under_Score
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39 minutes ago, Under_Score said:

Sad part is....uneducated corrupt party leaders punishing highly educated public servant for being unbiased......and educated people who support the party turn a blind eye to it....what Democracy is this....sigh

 

 

I cannot comment on this without reading further.

 

<Rant>

 

In general, people are just concerned about their own interest and are scared/careless to take a stand on any public issue. They think it is morally right to damage the society for their own benefit. They do not have any moral inhibition there.

 

This attitude is ingrained and cultural. The immediate family drugs the kids on this path  from their childhood. 

 

Such a nation will never develop ethically. We will remain a third world middle income society of crooks, scamsters and then fools.  The economic growth we are having is simply due to cheaper availability of bodies. And we are willing to screw our environment which the white and yellow man is NOT ready for.

 

</Rant>

Edited by kepler37b
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Muslims will inevitable en-mass vote for Muslim parties. This so called secular parties are and have only been stop-gap measures in the last 70 years. Once the critical mass is reached, the vote will shift one sided. It's already happening in some districts, and will become mainstream in next 10-15 years.

 

Next, should we even be one nation? It will become mainstream question eventually. Thus, this AAP progress is irrelevant in long term.

 

With or without BJP, these 2 things are inevitable. At least with BJP, it can be tackled better and be better prepared for the nation fight.

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It took the bjp around 15 years since emerging in 1980 (from janata dal) to be the main opposition in the mid 90s. This was with Rss manpower. 18 years to form coalition gov. 34 years to form full gov.

 

If you consider the jan sangh as the true start of the bjp add 30 years min to the above figures.

 

Politics takes time in India. Kejriwal is yet to win an ls seat in Delhi.

 

I think ak will be too old by the time aap if at all is established. 

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9 hours ago, G_B_ said:

It took the bjp around 15 years since emerging in 1980 (from janata dal) to be the main opposition in the mid 90s. This was with Rss manpower. 18 years to form coalition gov. 34 years to form full gov.

 

If you consider the jan sangh as the true start of the bjp add 30 years min to the above figures.

 

Politics takes time in India. Kejriwal is yet to win an ls seat in Delhi.

 

I think ak will be too old by the time aap if at all is established. 

 

Politics is also a product of times we live in and opportunities it provides. Indira Gandhi provided an opening through emergency. Rajiv Gandhi provided an opening through Shah Bano. UPA provided an opening through scams. Failure of Congress might provide AAP a quick opening to scavenge it's way to the top. The eco system is supportive. And there will be anti incumbency at some point. 

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3 hours ago, Clarke said:

^^ Yep, 1000 a month helps win Punjab, maybe the stakes can be raised for the throne.

 

Who will they approach for handout after winning based on that, RBI or Amrika ?

 

Anarchy is one acts without thinking and the environment adapts to your action. Look at WB. Who is funding the handouts there ? 

 

We are in the era of competitive socialism. Nobody needs to check the math, Venezuela, Sril Lanka or any such fallouts are soon forgotten. 

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