Why BJP Lost majority

[coffee_rules]

NDA got majority, But BJP lost by 32 seats , which they lost in UP (62 to 36). 
 

The main reason seems to be candidate selection, rural distress, no jobs.

 

Add to that too much of Modi overdose. 
 

Thanks to states like Orissa. TG, Karnataka MP, CG it survived

 

Discuss

[BlueBee]

Too much focus on hate and dividing rather than on ground reality; jobs, hunger, poverty etc. Also people are finally able to see their fascist tendencies.

[bowl_out]

Too much of Modi overdose is absolutely true.

 

Even Ram Mandir opening and Parliament opening were only used as Modi advertising rather than the actual event. Even the President was not invited to it, at least for the latter, because it would take limelight from Modi.

 

Got suffocatingly excessive beyond a point. 

 

Secondly, rural development has been poor. Not enough job opportunities outside urban centers.

 

Thirdly, excessive focus on Gujarat. He acted like Prime minister of Gujarat in many instances and it felt it the whole country was paying taxes for the development of one state.

 

Lastly, till he has his pro-Hindi narrative and excessive Hindutva narrative, BJP will never make inroads into Tamil Nadu and Kerala.. Appointment of Ravi and Governor just made things worse for BJP in TN 

 

[coffee_rules]

Combined vote share of ADMK + BJP

 

BJP > INC in TN

 

[coffee_rules]

5 minutes ago, bowl_out said:

Too much of Modi overdose is absolutely true.

 

Even Ram Mandir opening and Parliament opening were only used as Modi advertising rather than the actual event. Even the President was not invited to it, at least for the latter, because it would take limelight from Modi.

 

Got suffocatingly excessive beyond a point. 

 

Secondly, rural development has been poor. Not enough job opportunities outside urban centers.

 

Thirdly, excessive focus on Gujarat. He acted like Prime minister of Gujarat in many instances and it felt it the whole country was paying taxes for the development of one state.

 

Lastly, till he has his pro-Hindi narrative and excessive Hindutva narrative, BJP will never make inroads into Tamil Nadu and Kerala.. Appointment of Ravi and Governor just made things worse for BJP in TN 

 

Add rejecting RSS help in candidate selection. It can’t win without booth level work of RSS cadre. Nadda gaffes

 

[ravishingravi]

Honestly, whatever be the reasons, its just post facto. Fact is that in India, brute majority is something of luxury. BJP was lucky to have it for two terms. Now normal business has resumed. Infact, parties would jump to have the current scenario about 15 years back. 

 

Sharing the below which was shared with me about prediction by an astro. As a scientific person, just can't fathom how accurate this was. And done 4 months back. Makes me wonder

 

 

[ravishingravi]

If I was BJP, I would think of 2029 as full of opportunities. If people of India have vented out against me and I am still in power, then next 5 years could be about winning their confidence again. 

 

To me seat distribution looks like key factor and good old 10 year anti incumbency. There is also unemployment, rural distress and too much reliance on Modi. Can't underestimate impact of covid either. 

 

5 more years is a long time. Things can now go in either direction. 

[ravishingravi]

Also for me, these things are just about perspective. At the height of second wave, would BJP take the current scenario. 100%. So, it's not ideal but it looks worse because of expectations. 

[diga]

7 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

If I was BJP, I would think of 2029 as full of opportunities. If people of India have vented out against me and I am still in power, then next 5 years could be about winning their confidence again. 

 

To me seat distribution looks like key factor and good old 10 year anti incumbency. There is also unemployment, rural distress and too much reliance on Modi. Can't underestimate impact of covid either. 

 

5 more years is a long time. Things can now go in either direction. 

Biggest fear I have is of interim election in 2026 and if Modi will contest again (energy levels will not be the same). It's better that RSS cadre be mobilised for any eventuality 

[MechEng]

2 minutes ago, diga said:

Biggest fear I have is of interim election in 2026 and if Modi will contest again (energy levels will not be the same). It's better that RSS cadre be mobilised for any eventuality 

 

Ameen brother. By the might of all prophets, ghazwa e hind will happen soon. It's all written in the book!!

Edited June 5, 2024 by MechEng

[ravishingravi]

1 hour ago, coffee_rules said:

Combined vote share of ADMK + BJP

 

BJP > INC in TN

 

 

BJP will have to play second fiddle in TN, Maharashtra and AP. This is something they will have to learn now. 

 

Interesting election for TN in 2026 and for Maharashtra this year. I have a feeling SS will be back in the fold. 

Edited June 5, 2024 by ravishingravi

[diga]

36 minutes ago, MechEng said:

 

Ameen brother. By the might of all prophets, ghazwa e hind will happen soon. It's all written in the book!!

Showing your true colours? We will always remain kafirs to you jehadis 

[Haarkarjeetgaye]

48 minutes ago, MechEng said:

 

Ameen brother. By the might of all prophets, ghazwa e hind will happen soon. It's all written in the book!!

Ah mean brother. Does the book prophecize about paxtan

[jf1gp_1]

In UP they crapped all over RSS . Nadda pretty much said they don't need RSS and there you go. 

 

One result I haven't understood is smriti losing  by such a large margin. I wonder what was the voters thought process.

[coffee_rules]

57 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

 

BJP will have to play second fiddle in TN, Maharashtra and AP. This is something they will have to learn now. 

 

Interesting election for TN in 2026 and for Maharashtra this year. I have a feeling SS will be back in the fold. 

They think they can grow organically in TN like they did in Kar and TG. They have to get back to ADMK fold there. After delimitation when TN seats get reduced, it’s a different ball game. 39 is way too much for TN to gain unnecessary national importance in politics. They have formed and brought down union governments with that  power

[Texan]

Honestly,  after 10 years, there has to be some level of anti incumbency. I think the disappointment among BJP supporters is more to do with exit polls having heavily exaggerated the results in trying to toe the PM's 400 paar rhetoric. If somebody would have said in 2014 that Modi will be elected for a third term 10 years later with an NDA majority, all BJP supporters would have happily taken it. 

 

However, to answer the specific question in OP, the answer according to me is that this election was strange in a way and a bit reminiscent of the 2004 election. 

 

Now as well as in 2004, BJP was still riding a popularity wave and were seen as being confident in a win and even to some extent, arrogant. This dissuades potential BJP voters from going out to vote and ensuring that results work in their party's favor. They either take the result for granted without their vote or they dislike the arrogant attitude of not needing their votes as leaders confidently boast about winning a super majority.

 

Just like 2004, everyone was expecting BJP to stomp back to power. There were no major issues either in favor of the government or against the government.

 

In general, people did not feel too strongly for or against the government. However, those who have always been strongly opposed to BJP had more motivation to come out and vote against them as they were tired of seeing the same man/party they dislike being in power for 10 years and did not want more. 

 

The other factor that I also think affected the result actually had nothing to do with politics. Everybody kept reading about how lavish the Ambani family pre-wedding festivities were and how they continue to have more such extravagant celebrations.

 

In a country where the average Indian lives hand to mouth, it is unfathomable how much opulence was shown and publicly displayed in such celebrations. Somehow that message of crony capitalism and the Modi-Ambani-Adani bonhomie that RaGa keeps alleging at Modi started striking a chord within the common population.

 

While Modi had nothing to do with the extravagance at display by the Ambanis, he seemed to have become the unlikely victim of such brash show of opulence. Remember that it only takes 1 - 2 percent vote share decline to cause a huge shift in seat counts, which means it only needs 1 or 2 in 100 people to get disillusioned in this manner in order to impact the election results. 

 

 

[Gollum]

Took their voter base for granted.

[zen]

Anti-incumbency 

 

“… baki kuch baccha toh menghai maar gai …”

[Lone Wolf]

Arrogance and lack of development in rural areas with rampant corruption among local leadership.

If not for Modi G's face and MSM support this would have been a defeat of epic proportions.

 

5 years is a long time...  Same goes for opposition as they do have momentum on their side.

Ideal sort of result for the country though.  

[ravishingravi]

Contextually important remind few stuff. 

 

1) BJP won the elections but lost the expectations. Tally of BJP is more than INDI alliance combined. 

 

2) This the third term. Congress was reduced to 40 seats in 3rd term election. BJP is at 240. So yeah lost majority but baseline is much higher. It's like saying how did Australia loose in SF and comparing with Kenya getting through group stages. 

 

3) Perception that majority is always good for country is misnomer. Sure majority helps but stable coalition is only model that will work India. Also can enable good decision making. 

 

4) Losing seats big time and retaining power is the best thing that can happen to political party. It gets chance to course correct while holding the chair. 

 

5) Why BJP lost majority ? I fear everyone will make their theories based on their prejudices. In my view Indian voter rarely trusts a party beyond 10 years. Be it centre or state. Whatever the reasons is post facto. For me this should be natural state of things. In late 80s and 90s, this was Congress and BJP was on the other side. 

Edited June 5, 2024 by ravishingravi