Singh bling Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/indicators/indias-gdp-growth-slows-to-5-in-april-june-2019/articleshow/70910682.cms
diga Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 Slowdown...but we are still growing at 5%. . should see improvement in Q1of 2020
sandeep Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, diga said: Slowdown...but we are still growing at 5%. . should see improvement in Q1of 2020 Let's call a spade a f**king spade please. Stan AF and krupaksk 2
Stradlater Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 Government has been offering a slew of encouraging measures since past one week to reverse the slump. With good monsoon and festive season approaching, hopefully we would see the economic growth kick start again. Reinvigorating consumer demand and policy decisions to promote private investment should be the Govt's agenda as of now.
diga Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, sandeep said: Let's call a spade a f**king spade please. It's not a recession yet.... there are jobs for qualified and people are spending
sandeep Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 Just now, diga said: It's not a recession yet.... there are jobs for qualified and people are spending That's always the case no matter how bad things get. Bottomline, this administration has messed things up on the economic front. With extremely unfortunate timing. Instead of serious slowdowns in the economy, consider the alternate timeline over the last 4 years - oil prices at historic lows - massive factor for a engery-importer like India, a blooming US-China trade dispute creating serious opportunity to drastically ramp up the manufacturing sector in India. This golden opportunity has been missed. The likes of Vietnam, Thailand etc are seriously cashing in on this. And India is late to the party. Major shifts in supply chains require established infrastructure and existing structured pathways to facilitate such investment. Not promises and MoUs. The SEZ in Modi's own state of Gujarat has been languishing for a decade now, in spite of all the approvals and funding already being in place. If he won't get it done in his own home state, what hope for the rest of the country. There is no way to camouflage this - the BJP has f**ked up and dropped the ball on economic growth and progress. The last 5 years could have been the critical turning point for India - similar to China in 1978. We could have laid the foundation for decades of booming growth. Instead, Modi played games with Demonetization. I'm not asking for the moon, just sensible stewardship of the economy. And a delivery of promises of "efficient governance". I will wholeheartedly accept that the BJP are an upgrade over congress. But they are still falling woefully short of doing their job. Singh bling and Cricketics 1 1
Stan AF Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, diga said: It's not a recession yet.... there are jobs for qualified and people are spending This is the 5th quarter of economic contraction. This is Textbook recession.
Stan AF Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 And as usual classic headline diverting tactic from the government. Bank merger announcement just 1 hour before an abysmal GDP news
Stradlater Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 17 minutes ago, sandeep said: That's always the case no matter how bad things get. Bottomline, this administration has messed things up on the economic front. With extremely unfortunate timing. Instead of serious slowdowns in the economy, consider the alternate timeline over the last 4 years - oil prices at historic lows - massive factor for a engery-importer like India, a blooming US-China trade dispute creating serious opportunity to drastically ramp up the manufacturing sector in India. This golden opportunity has been missed. The likes of Vietnam, Thailand etc are seriously cashing in on this. And India is late to the party. Major shifts in supply chains require established infrastructure and existing structured pathways to facilitate such investment. Not promises and MoUs. The SEZ in Modi's own state of Gujarat has been languishing for a decade now, in spite of all the approvals and funding already being in place. If he won't get it done in his own home state, what hope for the rest of the country. There is no way to camouflage this - the BJP has f**ked up and dropped the ball on economic growth and progress. The last 5 years could have been the critical turning point for India - similar to China in 1978. We could have laid the foundation for decades of booming growth. Instead, Modi played games with Demonetization. I'm not asking for the moon, just sensible stewardship of the economy. And a delivery of promises of "efficient governance". I will wholeheartedly accept that the BJP are an upgrade over congress. But they are still falling woefully short of doing their job. I agree with this post. We missed a huge opportunity by not taking advantage of US China trade war. There's still time as Google is considering shifting it's base of production of Pixel smartphones from China to someplace else and if India could cash in it would bring in the much needed investment. Also back to back reforms such as Demonetisation and GST was a huge blunder. GST is a good initiative and we will start seeing it's fruits in the near future but Modi lost the plot with demonetisation imo. Totally unnecessary decision which siphoned out the much needed liquidity from our mainly informal market. Anyway Govt has been on a troubleshooting spree since last few days and hopefully we would see it's dividends in the coming months.
rkt.india Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stradlater said: I agree with this post. We missed a huge opportunity by not taking advantage of US China trade war. There's still time as Google is considering shifting it's base of production of Pixel smartphones from China to someplace else and if India could cash in it would bring in the much needed investment. Also back to back reforms such as Demonetisation and GST was a huge blunder. GST is a good initiative and we will start seeing it's fruits in the near future but Modi lost the plot with demonetisation imo. Totally unnecessary decision which siphoned out the much needed liquidity from our mainly informal market. Anyway Govt has been on a troubleshooting spree since last few days and hopefully we would see it's dividends in the coming months. Black money helps thrive economy in a low per capita income like India. People talk about low direct tax versus gdp forgetting the low per capita income. Stradlater and Jimmy Cliff 1 1
coffee_rules Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 Does GDP have to be be evenly distributed across all quarters? Let's call a spade as a spade, no need to bloat it as a fcuking spade.
sandeep Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, Stradlater said: I agree with this post. We missed a huge opportunity by not taking advantage of US China trade war. There's still time as Google is considering shifting it's base of production of Pixel smartphones from China to someplace else and if India could cash in it would bring in the much needed investment. Also back to back reforms such as Demonetisation and GST was a huge blunder. GST is a good initiative and we will start seeing it's fruits in the near future but Modi lost the plot with demonetisation imo. Totally unnecessary decision which siphoned out the much needed liquidity from our mainly informal market. Anyway Govt has been on a troubleshooting spree since last few days and hopefully we would see it's dividends in the coming months. Demonetization took almost a percentage point of growth away from India. At the worst time, not to mention the cash crunch's direct and painful impact on the lower middle class. All that for what? If we had genuinely made concrete progress against black money and counterfeit currency, that would be one thing. But the estimates are that almost all of the currency in circulation made its way back into the bank. i.e. the corrupt were able to find ways to "wash" their money into white. Using banks in northeast with older tech etc. I'm even OK with giving a pass to the current administration for Demo as a mistake but one with good intentions. Things don't always go according to plan. BUT, there are a lot of other mistakes made. Of Omission and Commission. These are really tough to accept. Its easy to cut ribbons and host conferences on "make in India". Its not that much more difficult to set up a couple of SEZs to really boost the manufacturing sector. Why has the Modi govt failed to do this? There are so many candidates that have been discussed and are available. All over India. The Dholavira area is one I am familiar with - so many attributes in its favor. There is simply no excuse for not getting SEZs going. Its been 5 years. A cynical explanation would be that the current entrenched businesses are happy making money with the way things are. New SEZs would disrupt that and introduce competition into the scene. And the BJP, just like the Congress thieves, are doing the bidding of their donors. Stradlater 1
sandeep Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: Does GDP have to be be evenly distributed across all quarters? Let's call a spade as a spade, no need to bloat it as a fcuking spade. When you have a major indicator like this flashing red, it is clear what is going on. This was a time for the Indian economy to ramp up and seize the opportunities on the global market. Such opportunities don't come along often, and will get harder and harder as time marches on. Japan, Korea, and China were able to do it in pre-WTO days, with easier global rules against export-subsidies etc. India has missed a very important bus here, and its a huge loss to our country and our people. Accept that harsh fact, be honest, stop being partisan and biased to a particular political party in the name of 'patriotism'.
randomGuy Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 (edited) Ltcg, stt, ddt wth If a corporate earns 100 RS. It is only left with 48rs. After taxes If it is wants to distribute to shareholders. On top of that Jaitley brought in ltcg...I think one of ddt and ltcg must go. Edited August 30, 2019 by randomGuy
Tibarn Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 FWIU, a recession is 2+ consecutive terms of economic contraction(ie negative GDP growth, -5.1%), not a slowed expansion, which is what the ET article states, 5.1% expansion. From the ET article here are the main sectors which seemed to have slowed down Quote Here's how each sector fared: * Manufacturing’ sector grew by 0.6 percent as compared to growth of 12.1 per cent in Q1 2018-19. Difficult to fix politically, but this is what the govt was expected to deal with when elected both times, even with organizations like BMS being in cross-hairs with the government on labor laws. It's all well and good to target improvement on EODB, but the government hasn't been able to tackle the meat of the issue. I am holding out hope that they will once their RS numbers peak, but I am not holding my breath. Ultimately India is still too expensive and it is too cumbersome to do business in for small businesses in particular. Quote * GVA for ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector grew by 2 percent as compared to growth of 5.1 percent in Q1 2018-19. This sector is the hardest to and is unlikely to be fixed unless someone wants to commit suicide politically. Agriculture/primary sector is already the most subsidized sector in India. Any "reforms" in this sector are unlikely. Anyway, the primary sector issues are downstream from the secondary sector in this case IMO. Fix the secondary and the primary will start to correct itself. Unfortunately, people will just rake-up their favorite pet-topics rather than focusing on the actual area(s) of concern. coffee_rules 1
cowboysfan Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 right wing government specialize in tanking the economy,this is is even worse considering their doles and freebies all around too. sandeep, Laaloo and Stan AF 1 1 1
R!TTER Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 1 hour ago, sandeep said: Instead of serious slowdowns in the economy, consider the alternate timeline over the last 4 years - oil prices at historic lows - massive factor for a engery-importer like India, a blooming US-China trade dispute creating serious opportunity to drastically ramp up the manufacturing sector in India. This golden opportunity has been missed. The likes of Vietnam, Thailand etc are seriously cashing in on this. And India is late to the party. Major shifts in supply chains require established infrastructure and existing structured pathways to facilitate such investment. Not promises and MoUs. You're exaggerating, oil prices were at historic lows about 2-3 decades back not the last 4 years. Heck for most parts the oil prices have hovered around half, or more, of the historic peak of 2008. Barely worth mentioning, Trump has been posturing for the most part & that too only the last year or two. If he was serious about trade war there would be no ZTE nor Huawei today, he's all talk with lots of hot air & then some. No the reason is something else, China is moving away from cheap contract labor & these nations enjoy lots of benefits being close to them with major incentives for setting manufacturing bases there. No not really, the biggest shift in supply chains is automation, not moving from China to Vietnam or India. These cheap jobs are going away, for good. Yeah well agree with that. 1 hour ago, sandeep said: The SEZ in Modi's own state of Gujarat has been languishing for a decade now, in spite of all the approvals and funding already being in place. If he won't get it done in his own home state, what hope for the rest of the country. You know the thing holding back this nation back is - it's people. China with its dictatorial regime has brainwashed their nearly 1.5 billion pop into thinking that they're always right, the best & the world belongs to them. A small dispute with SK or Japan saw people parading on the streets, boycott their products, heck damage the property of Japanese or South Korean conglomerates. Try doing that in India, although it has to be said the CCP does (un)officially support such actions from time to time when there's trouble brewing between them. You want growth here, be ready to pay more for home grown products not cheap fake imports from China. Though that'll never happen, because much like the US Indians have now been brainwashed on this consumerism or consumption (credit fueled) phenomenon, except we don't have the equivalents of GM, GE, IBM, Intel, MS, Google, Amazon etc. 1 hour ago, sandeep said: There is no way to camouflage this - the BJP has f**ked up and dropped the ball on economic growth and progress. The last 5 years could have been the critical turning point for India - similar to China in 1978. We could have laid the foundation for decades of booming growth. Instead, Modi played games with Demonetization. I'm not asking for the moon, just sensible stewardship of the economy. And a delivery of promises of "efficient governance". The biggest problem has been that India is at least somewhat fair when it comes to rule of law, respecting foreign IP & actually opening up the economy. If you know how China grew, by literally conniving, stealing & thieving, you wouldn't be comparing us with them. They had & still do have govt sanctioned espionage programs, at all levels. If you want India to grow well, we need to do exactly that, except with the Chinese! coffee_rules, adi B and someone 1 2
R!TTER Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 Now don't take this as a defense of Modi, just reality vs perception of how some think China type growth is possible. If India were to consume the resources China did, to get to where they are today, the earth would be messed up beyond repair & you'd probably need 5 (10?) billion African consumers to soak up the amount of goods & services we'd produce.
sandeep Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, R!TTER said: Now don't take this as a defense of Modi, just reality vs perception of But it is exactly that. You wrote a thousand words, but conveniently skirted the basic question on Modi's absolute and abject failure to get SEZs going. Especially ones that are already approved and funded, like Dholavira. There is simply no excuse for this glaring failure to do his job. The only explanation is that vested interests who are profiting from the current business environment in India, don't want their boat rocked. To hell with progress and growth for India. Improvement in manufacturing sector doesn't happen overnight. It has to built painstakingly from the ground up, brick by brick. Instead of laying those bricks for the foundation, Modi's too busy laying eggs like a giant statue -made in China btw. He's over-emphasizing glamour projects like GIFT city, while ignoring the critically important manufacturing sector. Zero progress on labor reform, even in his home state of Gujarat, which is under complete BJP control at the state govt level. Modi's adminstration is proving themselves to be congress in orange colors, when it comes to the economy. Inept, inefficient and I fear, incapable of improving.
R!TTER Posted August 30, 2019 Posted August 30, 2019 (edited) 14 minutes ago, sandeep said: Modi's absolute and abject failure to get SEZs going. Especially ones that are already approved and funded, like Dholavira. There is simply no excuse for this glaring failure to do his job. The only explanation is that vested interests who are profiting from the current business environment in India, don't want their boat rocked. To hell with progress and growth for India. I can't comment about specific SEZ because I don't know much about them, besides SEZ is also the responsibility of state govts. 14 minutes ago, sandeep said: Improvement in manufacturing sector doesn't happen overnight. It has to built painstakingly from the ground up, brick by brick. Did you miss the step where China stole network equipment designs, IP from Nortel, Ericsson, Nokia, Siemens et al? Or when they stole bullet train designs from France & Germany? Or how they copied Rover & started selling it as cheap knockoffs domestically? Virtally banned Amazon, Google, FB in the mainland & restricted MS' business & Intel to a large degree? How about copying stealth designs, commercial aircrafts even? 14 minutes ago, sandeep said: Modi's adminstration is proving themselves to be congress in orange colors, when it comes to the economy. Inept, inefficient and I fear, incapable of improving. Definitely, I see very little difference between the core of these parties. But then you probably knew that anyway, right? One's pretending to be secular, the other one patriotic. The best way to describe them is - Es hamam me - I hope you know the rest Look I'm all for copying China's growth model, except we don't have the levers or leverage anymore to make that happen. Much of our industries are owned or dominated by foreign companies & there's no way to reverse that unless we're going back to the era of nationalization. The only other way now we can grow (faster) is to control the services sector, but even there we've given Chinese a free hand. Edited August 30, 2019 by R!TTER
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