BacktoCricaddict Posted February 2, 2021 Posted February 2, 2021 https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/01/962821038/the-mystery-of-indias-plummeting-covid-19-cases This topic is now at the forefront of public health discussions. Scientists have brought up a number of hypotheses: strict mask mandates, younger demographic, more exposure to other pathogens and warm weather seem to be the most discussed reasons. I am surprised that there is not enough discussion given to two other possibilities: (1) BCG vaccine: Early on, there were some strong correlations that countries with widespread BCG vaccinations (anti-TB) were doing better with CoViD. The jury is still out on this hypothesis and it has lost the early steam. (2) Local medications: Many people have been consuming kadhaa (kashaayaa/m) and herbals like Coronil and shvasari. While I don't think the biological basis for these preparations is strong and that they have been adequately tested, I am not ready to summarily dismiss them. I wish that there was more attention paid to their efficacy - from both sides. How many people took these preparations, how often, how did Covid numbers correlate to them etc. etc.? These are excellent opportuntieis to develop evidence-based cures that India can proudly hold up as their indigenous medicine and bring it to the world. But what we have are, on the one hand, practitioners rejecting the call to do rigorous studies and, on the other hand, supporters of modern medicine completely rejecting these treatments without giving them a chance at all. When will the two meet and take advantage of the great opportunities? rkt.india, velu and G_B_ 1 2
coffee_rules Posted February 2, 2021 Posted February 2, 2021 Ventilation! Instead of a/c, furnace Daily bath Herd immunity nevada 1
BacktoCricaddict Posted February 2, 2021 Author Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, coffee_rules said: Ventilation! Instead of a/c, furnace Daily bath Herd immunity True. Ventilation is likely a huge factor. Specific herd immunity for a particular infectious disease is only achieved when ~60% of the population has been infected. I don't think India is anywhere near that number of total infections. People are not even getting infected at high levels any more (knocking on wood).
Clarke Posted February 2, 2021 Posted February 2, 2021 You must have read about ICMR study around frequent exposure to pathogens due to general lack of hygiene leading to better immunity. Vilander and nevada 1 1
BacktoCricaddict Posted February 2, 2021 Author Posted February 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, Clarke said: You must have read about ICMR study around frequent exposure to pathogens due to general lack of hygiene leading to better immunity. Yes, I have. And it is a very plausible mechanism. It is likely to be some combination of that, a young demographic and so on. But I guess my point was that, maybe ... just maybe ... there is a role for herbal preparations, but we won't know until we do the proper studies. It is a huge opportunity for India to step into modern drug development using traditional knowledge as a starting point. dial_100 1
velu Posted February 2, 2021 Posted February 2, 2021 33 minutes ago, Clarke said: You must have read about ICMR study around frequent exposure to pathogens due to general lack of hygiene leading to better immunity. so being dirty is beneficial for our overall good health
BacktoCricaddict Posted February 2, 2021 Author Posted February 2, 2021 17 minutes ago, velu said: so being dirty is beneficial for our overall good health Not quite. Put it in the context of how many people have suffered or died from malaria, cholera, typhoid, TB, dengue, chikunguniya and other infections resulting from a lack of personal or community hygiene. But being exposed more to the less-deadly, common-cold type coronaviruses may have primed your immune system to keep CoViD at bay. It's a double-edged sword. velu 1
coffee_rules Posted February 2, 2021 Posted February 2, 2021 West media, NYT, BBC thinks India is hiding deaths. Somebody recently reported that Indians are dying for no reason and are not reported or investigated as covid deaths. Laaloo 1
BacktoCricaddict Posted February 2, 2021 Author Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, coffee_rules said: West media, NYT, BBC thinks India is hiding deaths. Somebody recently reported that Indians are dying for no reason and are not reported or investigated as covid deaths. I used to see that at the start of the pandemic, but not lately. Even that was only with deaths, not cases. Here, I am specifically talking about case numbers. The developing world has historically not done a good job of reporting and documenting public health data, but that is not the case with India and CoViD. The article I linked was from NPR, and they are quite left-leaning - they clearly state that the low case numbers are not due to under-reporting. So, I wouldn't be too concerned about bias there.
chewy Posted February 2, 2021 Posted February 2, 2021 3 hours ago, coffee_rules said: West media, NYT, BBC thinks India is hiding deaths. Somebody recently reported that Indians are dying for no reason and are not reported or investigated as covid deaths. Also on contrary, Heard plenty of stories where doctors have attributed death to covid when person had died of heartache, not sure why, maybe doctors/hospitals dont want to give reasons in case of failed surgery/treatment, so easier to say covid as cause of death. coffee_rules 1
chewy Posted February 2, 2021 Posted February 2, 2021 Also is Kerala too clean for it's own good that now source of most covid cases in India randomGuy and velu 2
BacktoCricaddict Posted February 2, 2021 Author Posted February 2, 2021 (edited) 18 minutes ago, chewy said: Also on contrary, Heard plenty of stories where doctors have attributed death to covid when person had died of heartache, not sure why, maybe doctors/hospitals dont want to give reasons in case of failed surgery/treatment, so easier to say covid as cause of death. Anecdotal. Without data, it is impossible to tell how prevalent that is. With SM, one case exponents to 100s in no time. Plus, what is heartache? Like Laila Majnu types? Edited February 2, 2021 by BacktoCricaddict Mariyam 1
coffee_rules Posted February 3, 2021 Posted February 3, 2021 10 hours ago, BacktoCricaddict said: True. Ventilation is likely a huge factor. Specific herd immunity for a particular infectious disease is only achieved when ~60% of the population has been infected. I don't think India is anywhere near that number of total infections. People are not even getting infected at high levels any more (knocking on wood). How about extrapolation from anti-bodies testing? Delhi claims 55% is infected by anti-bodies testing. Maybe this strain in India is milder and the herd immunity at lower percentage levels is affecting lower fatality rates. Just a theory
randomGuy Posted February 3, 2021 Posted February 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, coffee_rules said: How about extrapolation from anti-bodies testing? Delhi claims 55% is infected by anti-bodies testing. Maybe this strain in India is milder and the herd immunity at lower percentage levels is affecting lower fatality rates. Just a theory Aap govt and kejriwal would like to take credit for the herd immunity.
Khota Posted February 3, 2021 Posted February 3, 2021 If almost 60% of Delhi population has anti bodies, that is close to herd immunity for a disease with R0 of around 3.5. BacktoCricaddict 1
rkt.india Posted February 3, 2021 Posted February 3, 2021 7 hours ago, chewy said: Also on contrary, Heard plenty of stories where doctors have attributed death to covid when person had died of heartache, not sure why, maybe doctors/hospitals dont want to give reasons in case of failed surgery/treatment, so easier to say covid as cause of death. Here my friend's father in law had pneumonia, negative Covid test bit was still treated and considered a Covid patient. chewy 1
Real McCoy Posted February 3, 2021 Posted February 3, 2021 That's because the disease doesn't exist Banton 1
ash Posted February 3, 2021 Posted February 3, 2021 No rocket science here. Mortality is less cause of younger population, cases are less cause asymptomatic and slightly feverish patients don't really visit doctors in India. And some people are bypassing PCR test by taking chest x-ray and taking covid treatment.
BacktoCricaddict Posted February 3, 2021 Author Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) 12 hours ago, coffee_rules said: How about extrapolation from anti-bodies testing? Delhi claims 55% is infected by anti-bodies testing. Maybe this strain in India is milder and the herd immunity at lower percentage levels is affecting lower fatality rates. Just a theory OP is about caseload, not fatality rates. High asymptomatic infection rates are a perfectly plausible explanation, although I don't know that there is evidence for a mild variant. Edited February 3, 2021 by BacktoCricaddict coffee_rules and Khota 2
BacktoCricaddict Posted February 3, 2021 Author Posted February 3, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, ash said: No rocket science here. Mortality is less cause of younger population, cases are less cause asymptomatic and slightly feverish patients don't really visit doctors in India. And some people are bypassing PCR test by taking chest x-ray and taking covid treatment. Not talking mortality in this thread. Only case-load. But you are right - age demographic explains part of the low caseload. However, it is multifactorial. What are the other factors and what is the contribution of each factor? Having a good handle on these data will help us in the future. Edited February 3, 2021 by BacktoCricaddict
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