India: Covid - II

[ash]

The death of popular Tamil actor Vivek just a day after publicly taking Covaxin in front of press will drastically change scenes in TN I feel. Vaccine doubters have increased exponentially. 

[I6MTW]

21 minutes ago, ash said:

The death of popular Tamil actor Vivek just a day after publicly taking Covaxin in front of press will drastically change scenes in TN I feel. Vaccine doubters have increased exponentially. 

He died of cardiac arrest, acute coronary trauma. Not because of COVID or vaccine.

[ash]

7 minutes ago, I6MTW said:

He died of cardiac arrest, acute coronary trauma. Not because of COVID or vaccine.

Yes I understand that this is a very unfortunate coincidence, but rumours are spreading a lot. Let's see how the administration controls this. 

[rock777]

i@sandeep, @Jay  @raki05 take care 

[rkt.india]

[mishra]

Just came to know that someone we know, died and he was due for his second dose in just 3 days.

 

Even if you got first vaccine, Dont assume invincibility. Situation is very bad at crematorium location in Prayag. I think We are Trully effed this time.

[mishra]

Stay safe everyone. Spend time on icf. No ned to go out for nxt 1 month. As long as you have rice, flour, salt and lentils at home, ask yourself, Do you really need to go out?

 

Our house is close to a Road which goes to cremation on banks of Ganga. Rate is now nearly one every 30-60 mins. That is several times more last rites traffic on that road

[Clarke]

2-3 days back Kejri said 5k beds available, today he says shortage of beds ?

[I6MTW]

10 minutes ago, Clarke said:

2-3 days back Kejri said 5k beds available, today he says shortage of beds ?

Nearly 25k cases in Delhi, last 24 hours. There's a good chance more than 5k were hospitalized. Bound to be shortages with so many cases coming.

[Clarke]

24 minutes ago, I6MTW said:

Nearly 25k cases in Delhi, last 24 hours. There's a good chance more than 5k were hospitalized. Bound to be shortages with so many cases coming.

That's a big hospitalization rate, scary!

[coffee_rules]

Last year, there were talks of converting railway coaches to hospital beds. I wonder what happened to that plan. Majority of cases should be treated at home. 

[kepler37b]

36 minutes ago, Clarke said:

That's a big hospitalization rate, scary!

Looks like govt has washed its hand off.

[kepler37b]

Here is an article on 1918 Spanish flu epidemic

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic_in_India

 

Some excerpts

 

"It effected 20-40 age group disproportionately"

 

"Ganga was clogged with dead bodies"

 

"Second wave was the deadliest"

 

I hope we never get anywhere near that. 

Edited April 17, 2021 by kepler37b

[BacktoCricaddict]

On 4/14/2021 at 2:10 PM, ravishingravi said:

Asking a very simple question. I know @BacktoCricaddict had spoken about importance of stats. So, here is the question. How do we know situation is good, ok, bad, nightmare in Indian context. Statistically. If so, what are we looking at ? Cases / Deaths? Trend / Benchmark ? 

It depends on what your question is.  If it is "are the covid-related data real," then excess mortality is the best measure.  You can fake test results, hospitalization requirements etc., but not mortality.  If many more people are dying per day than in the last 3 years and the only variable is Covid, it stands to reason that Covid is the cause - even if it is only exacerbating pre-existing problems.  
 

I really think apart from hysteria I am not able to see any clear sense of the problem. Yes, 185 k cases and 1000 deaths today. Yes, very very unfortunate. Let’s say it’s understated. Let’s 1 million cases and 2000 deaths today. I am exaggerating considering our lack of testing and considering the skeptics views on deaths. The base here is 1,4 billion. Now here is trend in US for comparison sake, which 1/4 of India’s population at 370 million.

 

True.  But it's just the beginning of the next wave.  I don't remember the exact numerator in the US back when the 2nd wave started, but comparing current US numbers to current India numbers is apples-mangoes.  The fear is not the current number alone, it is what is predicted for the future if measures are not taken.  
 

Now again, I am not trying to belittle the situation. Just trying to understand where we stand really. It goes without saying that each life matters. But we are not a priveleged. Problems of economic shutdown will be much worse than corona for majority of our population. I don’t think hysteria will help in India. People who can afford should not leave homes and those who can’t will have to. This first world order cannot be imposed in India. Lockdowns are anyway a lazy solution of poor administrations. This virus is going nowhere for next 5 years atleast. There will be mutations and we will learn to live with it. I am just not sure if hysteria is making us look at the situation differently especially for a country like India which has much more mortality from TB, diabetes, cardio vascular diseases, dengue etc.

Sometimes we tend to look at black-and-white solutions.  Lockdown or free-for-all?  It's not that simple.  There is a balance, of course. One can avoid all the religious and social gatherings, while continuing to work.  And keep reassessing, trust the doctors and PH scientists, and be nimble.  Some areas may shut down for some time, but open up later, while other areas go a different way.  From what I heard, India was very nimble during the first wave, but it is different this time around. 

 

As far as the virus being around, it will be around forever.  Like the cold virus.  In fact, it was probably around before we knew it was around, a variant appeared in 2019 and spread like crazy.  The goal is to minimize its impact.  By slowing its replication rate at the front end, you can minimize the number of deadly variants.  The chance of variants changes exponentially with more viral replication.  So it is important to control it now, become vaccinated and keep emergence of variants low at this time. 

 

Diabetes and CVD are not infectious.  I don't agree with the notion that it is acceptable to live with covid like we have with TB and dengue and malaria.  We should try to fight them all off - with govt will and concerted scientific efforts it is possible.    

 

 

On 4/14/2021 at 2:10 PM, ravishingravi said:

 

 

 

On 4/14/2021 at 2:10 PM, ravishingravi said:

https://www.google.fr/search?q=covid+cases+united+states&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=fr-fr&client=safari#wptab=s:H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgVuLVT9c3NMwySk6OL8zJecTYxMgt8PLHPWGpyklrTl5jLOYS901NyUzOzEt1ySxOTSxO9clPTizJzM8T0uNic80rySypFFLhEpRCNUeDQYqfC1VISIOLA65XhotXilM_V9_AMtm83ACompsLweXZxcTtkZqYU5IRXJJYUryIVTI5vywzRSEZaHuxQmleZklqikIxUCq1GAChrmz5wQAAAA

 

 

[BacktoCricaddict]

16 minutes ago, kepler37b said:

Here is an article on 1918 Spanish flu epidemic

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic_in_India

 

Some excerpts

 

"It effected 20-40 age group disproportionately"

 

"Ganga was clogged with dead bodies"

 

"Second wave was the deadliest"

 

I hope we never get anywhere near that. 

It would be a shame.  In 1918, other than masks and distancing, there were no tools.  Today, we have many more and there is no excuse.  

[BacktoCricaddict]

27 minutes ago, coffee_rules said:

Last year, there were talks of converting railway coaches to hospital beds. I wonder what happened to that plan. Majority of cases should be treated at home. 

But in crowded localities and issues of stigmatization .... 

[kepler37b]

25 minutes ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

It would be a shame.  In 1918, other than masks and distancing, there were no tools.  Today, we have many more and there is no excuse.  

 

We are lot more connected and have much higher unhealthy life style

[ravishingravi]

1 hour ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

 

 

 

i am pretty much onboard with most things you stated. But having seen my family  and many others go through this is in Mumbai, from third world perspective, I cannot help but think that the proportion of the problem has to be scrutinised. There is much we cannot understand at this point. But one thing is very very clear. Lives and livelihood cannot be mutually exclusive. 
 

The issue seems to be less about disease as much as it is about hospital capacity management. Atleast in India from what I have experienced. Govts trying to cover up their lack of planning and efficiency through lockdown. There needs to be moderate measures introduced but really it’s up to people. It’s scary how much govt overreach is hurting businessmen and professionals. 
 

Also I cannot undermine the role of religion in country like India. With hardships the common man faces combined with sluggish economy, the only thing that works after a point is faith. Go to slums in Dharavi or mumbra and talk about social distancing. These are all first world ideas which have no existential relevance for deprived in this country. 
 

I am not wishful about virus. As in I think we will gave to learn with it. It is certainly easier than living with dengue which was lethal and people had to die on table for lack of platelets. For whatever reason, India’s current mortality rate is extremely low and doesn’t warrant hysteria. Expecting nany state to guide this mammoth population is just unrealistic and not required. 
 

As one man said, for India solution would be worse than problem. The silver lining is our brilliant pharma sector and vaccination expertise. But we cannot afford to freeze in our boots. 

Edited April 17, 2021 by ravishingravi

[BacktoCricaddict]

1 hour ago, ravishingravi said:

i am pretty much onboard with most things you stated. But having seen my family  and many others go through this is in Mumbai, from third world perspective, I cannot help but think that the proportion of the problem has to be scrutinised. There is much we cannot understand at this point. But one thing is very very clear. Lives and livelihood cannot be mutually exclusive. 
 

The issue seems to be less about disease as much as it is about hospital capacity management. Atleast in India from what I have experienced. Govts trying to cover up their lack of planning and efficiency through lockdown. There needs to be moderate measures introduced but really it’s up to people. It’s scary how much govt overreach is hurting businessmen and professionals. 
 

Also I cannot undermine the role of religion in country like India. With hardships the common man faces combined with sluggish economy, the only thing that works after a point is faith. Go to slums in Dharavi or mumbra and talk about social distancing. These are all first world ideas which have no existential relevance for deprived in this country. 
 

I am not wishful about virus. As in I think we will gave to learn with it. It is certainly easier than living with dengue which was lethal and people had to die on table for lack of platelets. For whatever reason, India’s current mortality rate is extremely low and doesn’t warrant hysteria. Expecting nany state to guide this mammoth population is just unrealistic and not required. 
 

As one man said, for India solution would be worse than problem. The silver lining is our brilliant pharma sector and vaccination expertise. But we cannot afford to freeze in our boots. 

 

I agree regarding govt over-reach.  But gov't mandated lockdowns are not the only way.  Asking / educating / cajoling people to go on with their daily lives but be masked up and avoid large social / religious gatherings has to be done.  Many won't listen.  Many will.  Even if you reach half the people, you are making a dent.  

 

I will admit to this:  My judgement is probably clouded by my constant fear for my mother's well-being.  She is 77.  She has, over the years, refused to let go of her independence and move to the US.  It is nerve-wracking to consider that people around her typically put their religion / family functions above everything else - including the health of elders around them.  

[coffee_rules]

Modi should have prepared 50000 beds yesterday in Delhi